Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing an unexpected surge in demand during the traditionally slow first quarter due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, prompting overseas buyers to place orders in advance to avoid higher costs after April 2026 [1] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, marking a shift to a "no rebate subsidy" phase for the industry [1] - The cancellation of the rebate is expected to increase export costs, leading to a rush in orders from overseas buyers before the policy takes effect, thus boosting first-quarter export demand [1] - Major photovoltaic companies, such as Dongfang Risen and Trina Solar, saw significant stock price increases, with Dongfang Risen hitting a new high since September 2023 [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Price Trends - The photovoltaic supply chain is showing a divergence, with upstream silicon material companies experiencing relatively low performance, while leading component manufacturers are raising prices to capitalize on the export window [2] - The price increase in components is expected to enhance profit margins for component manufacturers in the first quarter, while silicon material prices will depend on the self-regulation of the industry and profit margins [2] - There is a concern that the rush for exports may preemptively exhaust overseas demand for the second quarter, potentially leading to a sharp decline in demand similar to previous years [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Demand Stability - Analysts suggest that after the export rush, there may be a significant drop in demand, which could put pressure on silicon prices again [3] - The stability of the photovoltaic industry's supply and demand dynamics will rely heavily on self-regulation within the industry and the actual trends in production control [3] - The domestic photovoltaic installation is expected to grow steadily under policy guidance, with leading companies that have integrated overseas production and sales likely to be less affected by the cancellation of the rebate [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, is a significant policy shift that has led to an unexpected surge in demand during the traditionally slow first quarter, as companies rush to secure orders before costs rise [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products, marking the industry’s transition into a "no rebate subsidy" phase, which will increase export costs [3][4]. - This policy change has prompted overseas buyers to place orders in advance to avoid higher costs, resulting in a spike in export demand during the first quarter [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Major photovoltaic companies such as Dongfang Risen, Trina Solar, and Longi Green Energy saw significant stock price increases, with Dongfang Risen hitting a new high since September 2023, closing up over 14% [3]. - The market has reacted to the antitrust situation in the silicon material sector, leading to a divergence in the photovoltaic industry chain, with upstream silicon material companies experiencing relatively low growth [4]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - Leading component manufacturers have begun raising component prices in response to the export rush, indicating a strong willingness to increase prices downstream, which may lead to improved profit margins for component manufacturers in the first quarter [4]. - The price dynamics in the silicon material sector will depend on the self-regulation of the industry alliance and the profit margins of the companies involved [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While the current export rush has temporarily alleviated the "double weakness" in supply and demand within the photovoltaic industry, there is a risk of preemptively exhausting overseas demand for the second quarter [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for a sharp decline in demand following the export rush could mirror past experiences, emphasizing the need for self-regulation within the industry to stabilize prices [5].

"退税取消推高了出口成本，企业将压力转嫁至产品价格。海外买家也希望以更低价格采购产品，为规 避4月份以后成本增加，纷纷提前下单，导致本应进入检修的行业生产线全面开工。"一家光伏上市公司 业务负责人对第一财经记者说："一季度本来是需求淡季，现在因为这个（退税取消），成为小旺季。" 本应进入检修的行业生产线，正在全面开工。 政策调整是这一轮光伏需求行情的主要催化剂。财政部和国家税务总局日前宣布，自2026年4月1日起， 国内将取消光伏产品的增值税出口退税。政策转向标志着光伏行业进入"无退税补贴"阶段，也意味着出 口光伏产品的成本将有所上升，海外采购商纷纷抢在政策生效前锁定订单，推高了一季度的出口需求。 每年的一季度，对光伏产业而言本该是传统的检修季与需求淡季。然而，今年的情况却有些不同。 1月12日，深度博弈抢出口现象，直面终端需求的光伏组件迎来大涨，东方日升（300118.SZ）盘中一度 涨停，收盘涨超14%，创2023年9月以来新高，天合光能（688599.SH）涨逾8%，隆基绿能 （601012.SH）涨逾4%。 与此同时，盘面资金也对硅料联盟反垄断进行作出反应，使得光伏产业链表现分化，上游硅料环节呈现 出 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the photovoltaic sector [2][7]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry towards high-quality development [1][2]. - A "window period" is expected to create a surge in export orders and production increases in Q1 2026, improving the performance of companies heavily reliant on exports [2]. - Following the end of the export rebate, overseas pricing for photovoltaic components is anticipated to rise, benefiting leading companies with strong brand and channel advantages [2]. - The cancellation of the rebate is seen as a response to the industry's call to reduce low-price competition, which may accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and allow leading firms to gain market share [2]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities and local market presence are expected to benefit from the reduced cost disadvantage of local manufacturing [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, transitioning the industry towards a more sustainable growth model [1][2]. Market Dynamics - A surge in orders and production is expected in Q1 2026 due to the impending policy change, similar to previous "rush to install" phenomena [2]. - The end of the rebate is likely to lead to a reevaluation of overseas component prices, with stronger pricing power for top-tier companies [2]. Competitive Landscape - The cancellation of the rebate is anticipated to facilitate the exit of low-efficiency production capacities, allowing leading companies to enhance their market share through technological and brand advantages [2]. - Companies with advanced technologies and cost advantages, such as those focusing on TOPCon/BC technologies and silicon material upgrades, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2]. Valuation of Key Companies - A table of key companies with their respective valuations and projected earnings for 2025-2027 is provided, indicating varying levels of profitability and market performance [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH), Daqian Energy (688303.SH), Haibo Sichuang (688411.SH), Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Flat Glass Group (601865.SH), Longxin Group (300682.SZ), and Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) [2] Core Insights - The solar industry has experienced a decline in new installations, with November 2025 seeing a 11.9% year-on-year decrease, totaling 22.0 GW. However, the cumulative new installations from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, reflecting a 33.2% increase year-on-year [3][13] - Solar module exports in November 2025 amounted to 171.4 billion yuan, marking a 33.9% year-on-year increase and a 6.6% month-on-month increase. The cumulative export value from January to November 2025 was 1854.0 billion yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year [4][16] - Inverter exports also showed positive growth, with November 2025 exports reaching 54.5 billion yuan, a 25.6% year-on-year increase and a 13.0% month-on-month increase. The cumulative export value for inverters from January to November 2025 was 587.5 billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year [4][28] - Solar power generation in November 2025 increased by 23.4% year-on-year, contributing to 5.29% of the total national power generation, which was 7792 billion kWh, a 2.7% increase year-on-year [5][41] Summary by Sections New Installations - November 2025 saw a domestic solar installation of 22.0 GW, down 11.9% year-on-year but up 74.8% month-on-month. Cumulative installations for the year reached 274.89 GW, up 33.2% year-on-year [3][13] Exports - Solar module exports in November 2025 were 171.4 billion yuan, up 33.9% year-on-year and 6.6% month-on-month. Cumulative exports for the year were 1854.0 billion yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year [4][16] - Inverter exports reached 54.5 billion yuan in November 2025, a 25.6% year-on-year increase and a 13.0% month-on-month increase. Cumulative exports for the year were 587.5 billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year [4][28] Power Generation - Solar power generation in November 2025 was 412.2 billion kWh, reflecting a 23.4% year-on-year increase and accounting for 5.29% of total national power generation [5][41] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Aishuo Co., Ltd. for new technology, Daqian Energy and Flat Glass Group for supply-side initiatives, Haibo Sichuang and Sungrow Power Supply for energy storage, Longxin Group for market-oriented strategies, and Quartz Co., Ltd. for domestic substitution [5][46]

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry into a phase of high-quality development [1]. - A "window period" is anticipated, leading to increased overseas orders and production ramp-up in Q1 2026, similar to previous phases of accelerated installations, which is expected to improve the performance of export-oriented photovoltaic companies [2]. - After the policy window closes, overseas component prices are likely to be renegotiated, as China, being the largest exporter of photovoltaic components, will have stronger pricing power due to the cancellation of the rebate, which is expected to lead to price increases [2]. - The cancellation of the export rebate is seen as a response to the call for reducing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, which will accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and reshape the market landscape [2]. - Companies with overseas production capacity and strong brand/channel advantages are expected to benefit from the narrowing cost disadvantage of local manufacturing, particularly in regions like the Middle East and North Africa [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Outlook - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate is expected to enhance the industry's quality of development and reduce fiscal funds being transferred to overseas terminals [2]. - The report suggests that leading companies with technological advantages (TOPCon/BC), strong brands, and distribution channels will continue to gain market share [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with overseas production capabilities, such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others, which are expected to benefit from the "price adjustment and capacity exit" [2]. - Companies that are advancing new technologies and material upgrades, such as Aiko Solar and Dongfang Risheng, are also highlighted for their potential to enhance product efficiency and pricing power [2]. - Cost-advantaged silicon material companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy are recommended for investment consideration [2]. Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided, detailing the estimated net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies in the industry, indicating varying performance expectations for 2025 to 2027 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing a significant policy shift as the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products is fully canceled, marking the end of a supportive policy environment and leading to a historical turning point for the industry [1][2]. Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [2]. - The export tax rebate policy, which began in October 2013, has seen a gradual decline in rebate rates, dropping from 13% to 9% for photovoltaic silicon wafers, batteries, and modules as of December 1, 2024 [2]. Market Reaction - The market reacted sharply to these policy changes, with the sentiment in the polysilicon market plummeting, leading to significant declines in polysilicon futures and related stocks such as Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. [1][3]. - On January 8, polysilicon futures dropped by 9%, followed by an 8% decline on January 9, reaching a low of 50,080 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Self-Regulation - The industry self-regulation phase has entered a new stage, with the State Administration for Market Regulation holding discussions with major companies regarding monopoly risks and requiring them to avoid agreements on production capacity, sales prices, and market division [3][4]. - The self-regulation efforts that began in 2025 had initially helped stabilize prices, but the recent regulatory changes indicate a shift away from relying on such practices [4]. Price Dynamics - Despite rising prices for upstream polysilicon and silicon wafers, downstream module prices have not followed suit, leading to squeezed profit margins for developers [5][6]. - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon was reported at 59,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83%, while N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers saw a price increase of 9.17% [5]. Demand Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a weak demand season for the photovoltaic industry, with both domestic and overseas markets showing signs of slowing order execution and limited visibility for new orders [7]. - The overall market demand has been declining, and the anticipated price increases for components face significant resistance due to low demand [6][7]. Market Valuation - The shift in policy is prompting a "value reassessment" in the capital market for the photovoltaic sector, with significant sell-offs observed in the stock market [8]. - From January 8 to 9, the photovoltaic sector experienced a notable decline, with polysilicon futures dropping by 10.2% and major companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL-Poly Energy Corp. seeing substantial stock price decreases [8]. Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, the photovoltaic industry's overall valuation is at historical lows, which may present attractive investment opportunities compared to other sectors [8]. - Companies with advantages in technology iteration, cost control, and global channel layout are expected to be identified as potential investment opportunities amidst the changing landscape [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant policy shift in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, marked by the cancellation of export VAT rebates and the cessation of industry self-regulation, indicating a historical turning point for the sector [2][3]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for PV products starting April 1, 2026, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [3]. - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate follows a period of declining export prices and increased competition in overseas markets, leading to substantial losses across the industry [3][4]. Group 2 - The market reacted sharply to these changes, with significant declines in the prices of polysilicon futures and related stocks, indicating a loss of investor confidence [4][8]. - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and leading companies in the PV sector, including Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy, focused on addressing monopoly risks and enforcing compliance with new regulations [4][5]. - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like polysilicon and silicon wafers, downstream component prices have not followed suit, leading to squeezed margins for developers [5][6]. Group 3 - The first quarter is traditionally a slow season for the PV industry, and the anticipated price increases for components face resistance due to weak demand [6][7]. - The shift in policy is prompting a reevaluation of the PV sector's value in the capital markets, with significant sell-offs observed in the stock prices of major companies [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that while the overall valuation of the PV industry is at historical lows, the uncertainty surrounding future profitability and market dynamics poses challenges for attracting investment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is facing a significant policy shift with the complete cancellation of export VAT rebates and the halting of industry self-regulation, marking a historical turning point for the sector [3][4]. Policy Changes - Starting April 1, 2026, the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be fully canceled, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [4]. - The export VAT rebate policy, initiated in October 2013, has seen a gradual decline in rebate rates, dropping from 13% to 9% as of December 1, 2024, indicating a move towards the cancellation of rebates [4]. Market Reactions - The market reacted sharply to these policy changes, with the price of multicrystalline silicon contracts dropping significantly, and major companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co. experiencing substantial stock declines [3][5]. - On January 8 and 9, 2026, the main contract for multicrystalline silicon futures fell by 9% and 8% respectively, reaching a low of 50,080 yuan/ton [5][11]. Industry Self-Regulation - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and leading companies in the silicon material sector indicate a shift away from previous self-regulatory practices, which had aimed to stabilize prices through coordinated production and sales strategies [5][6]. - The new regulatory environment prohibits companies from coordinating on production capacity, sales volumes, and pricing, which could lead to increased market volatility [5][6]. Price Dynamics - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like silicon and silicon wafers, the prices for downstream components have not followed suit, squeezing profit margins for developers [9]. - The average transaction price for N-type multicrystalline silicon was reported at 59,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83%, while N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers saw a price increase of 9.17% [9]. Demand and Market Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a low-demand season for the photovoltaic industry, complicating the acceptance of price increases by end-users [10]. - The overall market demand has been weakening, with a decline in order visibility for both domestic and overseas markets as the year-end approaches [10]. Capital Market Impact - The shift in policy is prompting a "value reassessment" in the capital markets for the photovoltaic sector, leading to significant sell-offs and pressure on valuations [11]. - From January 8 to 9, 2026, the photovoltaic sector experienced a notable sell-off, with major companies like Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy facing significant stock price declines [11].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing significant changes in 2026 due to the cancellation of export VAT rebates and the halting of industry self-regulation, leading to a historical turning point for the sector [1][2]. Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, marking the transition to a "no rebate subsidy" phase [2]. - The export VAT rebate policy for the photovoltaic industry began in October 2013, with rates gradually decreasing over the past two years, culminating in a drop from 13% to 9% in December 2024 [2]. Market Reactions - The market reacted sharply to these policy changes, with the price of polysilicon futures dropping significantly, indicating a loss of confidence among investors [3][8]. - On January 8 and 9, polysilicon futures contracts fell by 9% and 8%, respectively, with related stocks also experiencing substantial declines [3][8]. Industry Self-Regulation - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and major companies in the photovoltaic sector signal a shift away from previous self-regulatory practices, which had aimed to stabilize prices [3][4]. - Companies are now prohibited from coordinating on production capacity, sales prices, and other market behaviors, which could lead to increased volatility in pricing [3][4]. Price Dynamics - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like polysilicon and silicon wafers, downstream component prices have not followed suit, leading to squeezed margins for developers [5][6]. - The average transaction price for n-type polysilicon rose to 59,200 yuan/ton, a 9.83% increase week-on-week, while the average price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers increased by 9.17% [5]. Demand Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a slow season for the photovoltaic industry, with both domestic and international demand showing signs of weakness [7]. - The overall market demand has been declining, with new orders becoming less visible, further complicating the pricing landscape [7]. Market Valuation - The shift in policy is prompting a reevaluation of the photovoltaic sector's value in the capital markets, with significant sell-offs observed in early January [8]. - From January 8 to 9, the photovoltaic sector saw a drop of 10.2% in polysilicon futures, with major companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy experiencing notable declines in stock prices [8].