作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 7月2日以来，A股光伏板块迎来了久旱逢甘霖的行情。其中，亚玛顿、亿晶光电3个交易日分别大涨33%、26%。 市值大块头的大全能源、通威股份均大涨超10%。 7月1日，第六次中央财经委员会召开，里面有一段很关键的表述： 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提 升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出 。 这段话含金量十足，给接下来（新兴）过剩行业产能退出进行了明确定调。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间张跌幅 [起始交易日期] 2025-7-2 | 总市值1 | 校見日期 2025-7-4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [截止交易日期] 2025-7-4 [章位] %↓ | [单位] 亿元 | | | 1 | 002623.SZ | 亚玛顿 | | 33.1410 | 41.3453 | | N | 600537.SH | 亿晶米电 | | 25.9516 | 43.0872 | | 3 | 688303.SH | 大全能源 | 勾股大数据 | 18.606 ...

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index increased by 1.32% this week, closing at 4662.51 points on July 4 [4] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 18341.42 billion yuan, with a week-on-week decrease of 9.22% [4] Top Performing Stocks - The top ten stocks with the highest gains this week included: 1. Tian Shou Pharmaceutical (600521.SH) with a gain of 23.34% 2. Daqian Energy (688303.SH) with a gain of 22.18% 3. Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) with a gain of 18.93% 4. Lepu Medical (300003.SZ) with a gain of 17.99% 5. Giant Network (002558.SZ) with a gain of 17.42% 6. Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) with a gain of 17.32% 7. Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) with a gain of 15.37% 8. Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ) with a gain of 14.57% 9. Shenzhou Taiyue (300002.SZ) with a gain of 13.70% 10. Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) with a gain of 13.36% [3] Underperforming Stocks - The ten stocks with the largest declines this week included: 1. Hengxuan Technology (688608.SH) with a loss of 33.40% 2. Huazhi Shihua (688120.SH) with a loss of 32.34% 3. Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ) with a loss of 22.87% 4. Weining Health (300253.SZ) with a loss of 8.77% 5. China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH) with a loss of 7.07% 6. Xingyuan Material (300568.SZ) with a loss of 6.99% 7. Cambricon Technologies (688256.SH) with a loss of 6.50% 8. Beiyi Innovation (603986.SH) with a loss of 5.93% 9. Jixiang Airlines (603885.SH) with a loss of 5.84% 10. New Zhou Bang (300037.SZ) with a loss of 5.49% [3] Fund Performance - This week, 38 CSI A500 funds collectively rose, with Pu Yin An Sheng leading at a 1.72% increase [5] - The top three funds by size were Huatai-PB (200.88 billion yuan), Guotai (181.5 billion yuan), and GF Fund (174.22 billion yuan) [5] Market Trends - A new trend has emerged in the Hong Kong stock market where A-share listed technology companies are increasingly pursuing secondary listings in Hong Kong [7] - The secondary listings provide diversified financing channels and enhance international market recognition for the companies [7] - The median discount rate for five companies planning secondary listings in Hong Kong is approximately -17% [7] - The core factors driving asset performance are expected to shift from external to internal influences in the second half of the year [7]

Group 1 - Supply-side changes are crucial for the photovoltaic industry's capacity clearance, and supply clearance is a decisive factor for the industry to recover in the second half of the year [1] - The photovoltaic sector has seen a collective rise in stock prices, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Shuangliang Eco-Energy hitting the daily limit on July 2 [1][4] - The cash flow of silicon material manufacturers is under pressure due to continuous losses, with the average asset-liability ratio of photovoltaic companies rising [1][4] Group 2 - Silicon material prices have shown a slight recovery due to stable supply and demand, while silicon wafer prices have declined due to weak terminal demand [2][3] - The average transaction price of multi-crystalline silicon N-type raw materials increased by 0.87% to 34,700 yuan/ton, while N-type granular silicon remained at 33,500 yuan/ton [2] - The production of multi-crystalline silicon in June was approximately 102,000 tons, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 44.1% in the first half of the year [3] Group 3 - The reduction in production capacity is essential for reversing the current difficulties in the multi-crystalline silicon industry [4][5] - The asset-liability ratio of many photovoltaic companies has exceeded 70%, indicating significant financial pressure [4][5] - Companies like Tongwei and Daqo Energy have indicated that the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to change in the short term, with silicon material prices expected to remain low [5] Group 4 - The global nominal capacity of multi-crystalline silicon is projected to reach approximately 3.04 million tons by May 2025, with domestic capacity accounting for about 97% [6] - The photovoltaic industry's supply-side adjustments are expected to deepen, with the multi-crystalline silicon sector likely to be one of the first to complete adjustments [6]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) index rose by 0.24%, closing at 984.95 points, with a total trading volume of 2.701 billion shares and a turnover of 90.146 billion yuan, resulting in a weighted average turnover rate of 1.52% [1] - Among the tradable stocks on the STAR Market, 365 stocks closed higher, with 5 stocks increasing by over 10% and 30 stocks rising between 5% and 10%. Conversely, 208 stocks closed lower [1] Turnover Rate Analysis - The distribution of turnover rates shows that 2 stocks had turnover rates exceeding 20%, 11 stocks had rates between 10% and 20%, 44 stocks had rates between 5% and 10%, 72 stocks had rates between 3% and 5%, 294 stocks had rates between 1% and 3%, and 165 stocks had rates below 1% [1] - The stock with the highest turnover rate was Xinyuren, which closed up by 4.80% with a turnover rate of 33.00% and a transaction amount of 594 million yuan. Huasheng Lithium Battery followed with a 15.36% increase and a turnover rate of 21.64% [1] Sector Performance - In terms of industry performance, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector had the most stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 5%, totaling 14 stocks. The electronics and power equipment sectors followed with 13 and 10 stocks, respectively [2] Capital Flow - Among the high turnover stocks, 34 stocks experienced net inflows of main funds, with the highest net inflows recorded for Bolite, Kexing Pharmaceutical, and Huiyu Pharmaceutical, amounting to 131 million yuan, 74.062 million yuan, and 60.026 million yuan, respectively [2] - Conversely, the stocks with the largest net outflows included Huicheng Co., Daqian Energy, and Sunshine Nuohe, with net outflows of 76.657 million yuan, 56.088 million yuan, and 45.416 million yuan, respectively [2] Leverage Fund Movements - A total of 47 stocks received net purchases from leveraged funds, with notable increases in financing balances for Tailin Micro, Daqian Energy, and Kexing Pharmaceutical, which saw increases of 108 million yuan, 6.698 million yuan, and 6.592 million yuan, respectively [2] - Stocks with significant decreases in financing balances included Rongchang Biological, Sunshine Nuohe, and Liyuanheng, with decreases of 115 million yuan, 21.505 million yuan, and 12.791 million yuan, respectively [2]

大全能源688303 时间: 2025年7月3日星期四 趋势方向 主力成本分析 23.17 元 当日主力成本 21.74 元 5日主力成本 68.57分综合得分 较强 19.80 元 20日主力成本 19.23 元 60日主力成本 周期内涨跌停 过去一年内该股 涨停 19.86 短期支撑位 2次 跌停 0 次 北向资金数据 持股量2794.62万股 占流通比5.05% 昨日净买入-19.39万股 昨日增仓比-0.035% 5日增仓比0.01% 20日增仓比0.069% 技术面分析 23.75 短期压力位 23.75 中期压力位 18.39 中期支撑位 目前短线趋势不慎明朗，静待主力资金选择方向； 目前中期趋势不慎明朗，静待主力资金选择方向 K线形态 暂无特殊形态 资金流数据 2025年07月03日的资金流向数据方面 主力资金净流出5664.33万元 占总成交额-8% 超大单净流出5045.57万元 大单净流出618.76万元 散户资金净流入76.80万 关联行业/概念板块 光伏设备 0.02%、半导体概念 0.57%、太阳能 0.40%、西部大开发 0.46%等 财务数据 最近的财报数据显示，该股于2025年 ...

Market Overview - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) index fell by 1.22%, closing at 982.64 points, with a total trading volume of 2.847 billion shares and a turnover of 93.68 billion yuan, resulting in a weighted average turnover rate of 1.60% [1] - Among the tradable stocks on the STAR Market, 105 stocks closed higher, with 3 stocks rising over 10% and 5 stocks rising between 5% and 10%. Conversely, 476 stocks closed lower [1] Trading Activity - The turnover rate distribution shows that 2 stocks had a turnover rate exceeding 20%, 7 stocks had a turnover rate between 10% and 20%, 51 stocks had a turnover rate between 5% and 10%, 84 stocks had a turnover rate between 3% and 5%, 305 stocks had a turnover rate between 1% and 3%, and 139 stocks had a turnover rate below 1% [1] - The stock with the highest turnover rate was Shengke Nano, which closed down 7.26% with a turnover rate of 27.87% and a transaction amount of 245 million yuan. The second highest was Kaiweite, which closed down 9.11% with a turnover rate of 23.34% and a transaction amount of 327 million yuan [1] Sector Performance - In terms of industry, the electronics and pharmaceutical sectors had the most stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 5%, each with 13 stocks [2] - Among high turnover stocks, 18 stocks experienced net inflows of main funds, with the highest net inflows seen in Daqian Energy (129 million yuan), Kexing Pharmaceutical (84.31 million yuan), and Rongbai Technology (82.93 million yuan) [2] Leverage Fund Movements - A total of 43 stocks received net purchases from leveraged funds, with notable increases in financing balances for Tailin Micro (200 million yuan), Ruikeda (8.35 million yuan), and Shengnuo Biological (7.50 million yuan). Conversely, significant decreases were observed in Rongchang Biological, Juhua Materials, and Guangda Special Materials [2] Notable Stocks - The following stocks had significant trading activity: - Shengke Nano: Latest closing price 26.56 yuan, daily change -7.26%, turnover rate 27.87%, net outflow -33.20 million yuan [3] - Kaiweite: Latest closing price 36.00 yuan, daily change -9.11%, turnover rate 23.34%, net outflow -19.64 million yuan [3] - Daqian Energy: Latest closing price 23.75 yuan, daily change +15.68%, turnover rate 7.23%, net inflow 129.11 million yuan [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on July 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3454.79 points, down 0.09% [1] - A500ETF Jiashi (159351) saw a trading volume of 2.784 billion yuan, ranking fourth among similar products in the market and second in the Shenzhen market [1] - The turnover rate for A500ETF Jiashi reached 18.24%, the highest among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1] Group 2 - The solar energy sector received two significant boosts: the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" Act was passed in the Senate, leading to strong performance of solar and wind stocks in the U.S. market [1] - Major domestic photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, which is expected to decrease domestic glass production to approximately 45GW [1] - As a result of these positive developments, key stocks in the solar sector saw substantial gains, with Daqo New Energy rising over 15%, and both Dongfang Risheng and Tongwei Co. increasing by over 10% [1] Group 3 - Despite a slight market adjustment, there are clear signs of capital positioning against the trend, supported by liquidity advantages and policy benefits, highlighting the strategic value of A500ETF Jiashi as a core asset allocation tool in the A-share market [1] - A500ETF Jiashi tracks the CSI A500 Index, composed of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, providing a balanced industry distribution and a higher proportion of new productive forces [2] - Investors can access quality core asset opportunities through the Jiashi CSI A500 ETF linked fund (Class A 022453; Class C 022454) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector has experienced a significant surge in stock prices, driven by industry-wide production cuts and favorable market conditions [1][4][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Since late June, photovoltaic stocks have been on a continuous upward trend, with many stocks hitting the daily limit [1]. - Notable performers include Daqo New Energy, which rose over 15%, and several other companies like Shuangliang Energy and Kstar New Energy, which also saw significant gains [1][2]. - In the Hong Kong market, Kstar New Energy increased by over 13%, while other companies like Xinyi Solar and Fulete Glass also reported substantial gains [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Major photovoltaic glass manufacturers plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July to alleviate excessive competition and improve supply-demand balance [4][5]. - This reduction is expected to lower domestic glass production to around 45GW, addressing the current oversupply situation [4]. - The industry is responding to government policies aimed at curbing low-price competition and promoting sustainable development [5][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is entering a phase of significant capacity expansion, leading to price declines and profit compression for major players [6][7]. - Despite the production cuts, component prices have not shown significant recovery, with silicon wafer prices continuing to decline [7]. - Analysts suggest that the market is in a "clearing deep water zone," indicating that inventory reduction and capacity adjustments are necessary for supply-demand improvement [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon prices and related stocks is driven by multiple favorable factors, including government policies aimed at improving product quality and reducing low-price competition in the industry [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Polysilicon prices opened high and surged over 5% in early trading, with significant activity in photovoltaic stocks, including notable gains in companies like Yamaton and Tongwei [1][5]. - The industrial commodity futures market showed strong bullish sentiment, with polysilicon, industrial silicon, and glass leading the gains [5]. Group 2: Government Policies - A recent high-level meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity, which is seen as a major positive for the market [2][5]. - Domestic leading photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, which is expected to decrease domestic glass output to around 45 GW [4]. Group 3: International Influence - The U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill passed in the Senate, which is expected to boost solar and wind energy stocks, with significant gains observed in related companies [3][7]. - The bill's provisions include the removal of tax obligations for solar and wind projects, further enhancing market optimism [7]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley has raised its growth forecasts for China's economy to 5.1% and 5.3% for the next two years, highlighting the dual drivers of technological innovation and policy support [8]. - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index is expected to enhance the financial attributes of commodity futures, potentially increasing demand for these products [8].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Photovoltaic Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, particularly the challenges and opportunities arising from recent policy changes and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment Shift**: Recent articles from the People's Daily have shifted market sentiment from skepticism to optimism regarding long-term policy effects in the PV sector, leading to a rise in stock prices [2][6][8]. 2. **Challenges Faced**: The PV industry is currently facing multiple challenges, including external disturbances, weak domestic demand, and local protectionism, which have resulted in severe competition and impacted profitability across the supply chain [3][11]. 3. **Policy Measures for Mergers and Acquisitions**: The government is expected to implement policies that encourage leading PV companies to acquire the capacities of less competitive firms, with a focus on restructuring the industry to address losses across the supply chain [5][9]. 4. **Inventory and Supply Dynamics**: There is significant inventory pressure in the silicon material segment, with expectations of increased production leading to potential price declines. The industry may need to collaborate on production cuts to manage inventory levels effectively [10][11]. 5. **Future Policy Implementation**: Policies aimed at addressing the industry's challenges are anticipated to be introduced around August or September 2025, with execution expected in early 2026 [9][14]. 6. **Profitability Outlook**: The most competitive companies in the industry have cash costs around 30,000 CNY per ton. If silicon prices rebound to 60,000 CNY per ton, these companies could see substantial profit elasticity [3][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Investor Confidence**: The market's confidence has been restored following the People's Daily's acknowledgment of the industry's issues and the government's commitment to addressing them, which is crucial for long-term investment evaluations [6][7][8]. - **Operational Strategies**: The acquisition of less competitive firms will involve financial restructuring, including extending bank loans and joint investments from leading companies, with operational costs potentially passed on to end customers [9][10]. - **Technological Innovations**: New technologies in the PV sector, such as BC technology and high-efficiency Topcon technology, are highlighted as areas of potential growth and investment [15]. Conclusion The PV industry is at a critical juncture, with significant policy changes on the horizon that could reshape the competitive landscape. Stakeholders are advised to monitor the developments closely, particularly regarding policy implementation and market responses in the coming years [14][15].