Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing significant changes due to supply-side reforms, with a notable increase in polysilicon prices and market dynamics shifting towards a more concentrated structure among leading companies [1][17][29]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The polysilicon futures market reacted rapidly after the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1, with main contract prices rising from 32,000 yuan to over 41,000 yuan, a nearly 30% increase in just eight trading days [1]. - In the stock market, leading polysilicon companies like Tongwei Co., Xiexin Technology, and Daqo New Energy saw stock prices increase by over 23% during the same period, although the stock market's reaction was slower compared to the futures market [3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform and Capacity Clearance - There is a consensus in the market regarding the need for supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector, but skepticism remains about the pace of capacity clearance and price increases [4]. - The last supply-side reform was initiated in November 2015, with coal and steel capacity clearance policies taking effect in February 2016, indicating that similar timelines may apply to the current photovoltaic reforms [5]. - Some analysts believe that the pace of policy implementation for photovoltaic capacity clearance may be faster than expected due to prior engagements with enterprises and directives from higher authorities [6][9]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The average cost line for leading polysilicon manufacturers is above 40,000 yuan, establishing a price floor for polysilicon [12]. - Reports suggest that the target price for polysilicon should be at least 60,000 yuan to ensure that leading companies can cover costs and service debts, with some estimates suggesting prices may need to exceed 80,000 yuan [13][14]. - If polysilicon prices rise significantly, the ability of downstream manufacturers to pass on costs remains a contentious issue, with the current price increase primarily driven by supply-side reforms rather than demand from downstream sectors [15]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a fundamental shift, indicating a reversal of previous difficulties, although the stock prices of leading companies have not yet fully reflected this change [17][18]. - The current situation in the photovoltaic sector is reminiscent of the coal industry's supply-side reforms initiated in 2016, which led to significant capacity reductions and price increases over time [19][22]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see a recovery in valuations, although the demand landscape may face uncertainties due to trade barriers and other external factors [29].

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][9]. Core Insights - The price of polysilicon has been continuously rising, currently near the full cost of leading companies, with spot prices reaching 44,500 CNY/ton, which is close to the estimated full cost range of 42,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton for top polysilicon producers [3]. - The price increases in the supply chain are expected to lead to higher component prices, with downstream prices for silicon wafers and batteries also rising, indicating a successful price transmission within the industry [3]. - The anticipated price increases are expected to benefit export profitability, mitigating concerns over domestic demand declines in the second half of the year, as overseas market demand is gradually increasing [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Polysilicon prices have surged, with N-type dense material quoted at 44,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 5,500 CNY/ton [1]. - Silicon wafer prices for N-type 182 and 210 sizes have increased by 13.64% and 13.45%, respectively, indicating a cascading effect of price increases throughout the supply chain [1]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a positive feedback loop in the industry, driven by self-discipline and anti-involution measures, which are expected to sustain the upward trend in polysilicon prices [3]. - The report suggests that the price increases will not lead to a rise in polysilicon production rates due to industry self-regulation [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy, which are expected to benefit from rising polysilicon prices [3]. - It also highlights companies with independent alpha trends, including Aiko Solar and LONGi Green Energy, as well as auxiliary material companies like Foster and Flat Glass [3].

智通财经APP获悉，近日，大摩发布行业研究报告指出，近期中国政府对太阳能行业的无序竞争问题愈发关 注，但认为太阳能行业供给侧改革的实施存在不确定，在执行层面，存在需求疲软、市场参与者以民营企业 为主等风险。与2024年10月的上次短期上涨相比，大摩认为中央政府对光伏市场无序竞争的关注度有所提 升，而行业基本面却在恶化。 行业观点：具有吸引力 自6月30日至7月8日，中国太阳能股票——尤其是多晶硅企业（通威、大全、协鑫集成和新特）股价上涨了 28%-36%（相比之下，恒生指数上涨0.3%，上证综指上涨1.5%）。 大摩列举以下供给侧改革相关新闻动态： 6月29日，《人民日报》强调了太阳能组件行业的内卷式竞争。 （1）由于5月的政策节点（2025年1-5月太阳能装机量为198GW），2025年下半年光伏需求可能会下降。 （2）中国光伏制造价值链由民营企业主导，且2022年以来，许多新产能是在地方政府招商引资的背景下建成 的。 （3）光伏价值链上的多晶硅/硅片/电池片/组件等环节的大部分新产能建于2022-2024年，并且采用了新的减排 标准和新技术。 （4）多晶硅库存水平较高（>300千吨），相当于四个月或以上的 ...

Group 1 - The price of polysilicon continues to rise, with n-type recycled material trading at 3.40-3.80 million CNY per ton, averaging 3.71 million CNY per ton, a 6.92% increase month-on-month [1] - The n-type granular silicon price ranges from 3.40-3.70 million CNY per ton, averaging 3.56 million CNY per ton, reflecting a 6.27% month-on-month increase [1] - Major polysilicon companies have paused quoting prices to conduct internal cost assessments, indicating a shift towards pricing based on full costs [1][2] Group 2 - There are rumors of a potential polysilicon storage initiative involving major companies, but the authenticity of these claims remains uncertain [2][4] - The solar industry is experiencing a "de-involution" movement, with major companies planning to collectively reduce production by 30% [4] - The overall polysilicon production capacity in China is projected to reach approximately 2.87 million tons in 2024, a 36.02% increase from 2023 [5] Group 3 - The current market dynamics show that polysilicon prices are rising, with mainstream prices reaching 39 CNY per kilogram, a 14.71% increase from the previous week [8] - Despite the price increases, actual transaction volumes remain low due to insufficient demand from downstream sectors [8] - The solar industry is undergoing significant changes, with stock prices of major polysilicon companies rising sharply in response to market expectations [9] Group 4 - The industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with excess production capacity and a slowdown in downstream demand [5][6] - Major companies like Tongwei and Daqo Energy have reported low operating rates, indicating a cautious approach to production in response to market conditions [6][7] - The current inventory levels in the polysilicon industry are approximately 400,000 tons, sufficient to meet two months of downstream demand [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth and positive momentum in the photovoltaic (PV) sector, particularly reflected in the performance of the photovoltaic ETF (159857) and its underlying index [3][4] - As of July 10, 2025, the photovoltaic ETF (159857) has increased by 2.64%, with a trading volume of 113 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The photovoltaic ETF has seen a substantial increase in scale, with a growth of 248 million yuan over the past two weeks and an increase of 81.5 million shares over the past six months [3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" trend in various industries, including photovoltaics, is gaining traction, with expectations that this will lead to improved profitability and market conditions for the sector [3] - The urgency for addressing low-price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic glass industry has been emphasized, with many companies planning to reduce production by 30% in July 2025 [4] - The current price of 2.0mm coated glass is at 11 yuan per square meter, with inventory days reaching 32, indicating potential challenges for profitability in the industry [4] Group 3 - The valuation of the index tracked by the photovoltaic ETF is at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.87, suggesting attractive valuation opportunities [4] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in the photovoltaic industry chain, selecting up to 50 representative companies [4]

金十数据7月10日讯，A股光伏设备、有机硅概念早盘震荡走强，拓日新能、硅宝科技、弘远绿能、京 运通等多股涨停，亿晶光电、艾能聚、首航新能等个股涨超8%，艾罗能源、阳光电源、大全能源等个 股跟涨。昨日，多家硅片企业上调了硅片报价，不同尺寸的硅片价格涨幅在8%—11.7%。业内人士反 馈，由于国内光伏市场终端需求增速放缓，下游电池环节能否接受本次硅片提价还有待观察。 光伏概念连日上涨 业内表示硅片提价影响有待观察 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain has returned to the market spotlight after four years, with significant stock price increases across various segments, indicating a strong market recovery and investor interest [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On July 8, A-share photovoltaic concept stocks saw three stocks hit the 20% daily limit, with nearly 30 stocks rising over 10%, showcasing a rare market phenomenon [1]. - As of July 9, nearly 70 photovoltaic concept stocks had increased by over 10% in July, with 25 stocks rising over 20%, marking it as a significant month for the sector [8]. Price Trends and Influences - The recent surge in the photovoltaic industry began in late June following important government commentary on "anti-involution" and subsequent meetings [5]. - Key stocks like Xinling Electric and Yamaton have shown remarkable price increases, with Xinling Electric rising 62.45% over five trading days [9][10]. - The price of polysilicon, a critical material for photovoltaic cells, has seen a significant increase, with a recent rise of 7% and a cumulative increase of over 30% [11]. Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a strong recovery driven by policy support and rising material prices, leading to a high degree of certainty in valuation recovery [14]. - Historical patterns indicate that the industry has undergone several supply contraction cycles, suggesting potential for further price increases [17][18]. Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The photovoltaic sector has faced significant valuation pressures, with many companies experiencing up to 80% declines since their peak in 2021 [19][20]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of stabilization, with industry losses narrowing and potential for performance recovery among leading companies [21][22]. - The photovoltaic ETF has outperformed many individual stocks, indicating a favorable investment vehicle for exposure to the sector [23]. Broader Implications - The "anti-involution" trend is not limited to photovoltaics but extends to other sectors such as construction materials and chemicals, suggesting a broader market recovery [24][25]. - The potential for significant investment opportunities exists, particularly for leading companies and those with competitive advantages in the current market environment [26].

Market Overview - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 38.536 billion yuan, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board experiencing a net outflow of 3.036 billion yuan [1] - A total of 202 stocks saw net inflows, while 385 stocks experienced net outflows [1] Sci-Tech Innovation Board Performance - On the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 180 stocks rose, with three stocks hitting the daily limit, while 403 stocks declined [1] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Cambrian, which saw a net outflow of 229 million yuan and a decline of 1.43% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - Among the stocks with net inflows, the top three were Hotgen Biotech with a net inflow of 129.6752 million yuan, followed by Huyou Pharmaceutical and Daqo New Energy with inflows of 59.8489 million yuan and 56.8139 million yuan respectively [2] - A total of 35 stocks have seen continuous net inflows for more than three trading days, with Baili Tianheng leading at 11 consecutive days of inflow [2] Continuous Fund Flow - The stock with the longest continuous net outflow is Guangda Special Materials, which has seen outflows for 13 consecutive trading days [2] - The continuous inflow and outflow trends indicate investor sentiment and potential future performance of these stocks [2] Key Stocks and Their Performance - The top stocks by net inflow include: - Hotgen Biotech: 129.6752 million yuan, 5.97% increase - Huyou Pharmaceutical: 59.8489 million yuan, 2.93% increase - Daqo New Energy: 56.8139 million yuan, 0.75% increase [2][3] - Stocks with significant net outflows include: - Cambrian: 229 million yuan, 1.43% decrease - Chipone: 182 million yuan, 1.34% decrease [1][2] Summary of Stock Movements - The overall market sentiment appears cautious, with significant outflows from certain stocks indicating potential concerns among investors [1][2] - The performance of stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reflects a mixed sentiment, with some stocks gaining traction while others face declines [1][2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13% on July 9, with 17 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by Media and Agriculture sectors, which increased by 1.35% and 0.65% respectively [1] - The Electric Equipment sector saw a slight increase of 0.17% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals and Basic Chemicals, which dropped by 2.26% and 0.85% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 38.536 billion yuan, with only three sectors experiencing net inflows: Media (1.055 billion yuan), Retail (864 million yuan), and Construction Decoration (40.34 million yuan) [1] - The Electronic sector had the largest net outflow, totaling 7.789 billion yuan, followed by Non-ferrous Metals with 5.412 billion yuan [1] Electric Equipment Sector Performance - In the Electric Equipment sector, 358 stocks were tracked, with 99 stocks rising and 252 stocks declining; 5 stocks hit the daily limit up [2] - The top net inflow stock was Ningde Times, with a net inflow of 378 million yuan, followed by Tongguan Copper Foil and Kelu Electronics with inflows of 219 million yuan and 178 million yuan respectively [2] - The sector experienced a total net outflow of 4.576 billion yuan, with 11 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan; the largest outflows were from Rongfa Nuclear Power, Sunshine Power, and Nord Shares, with outflows of 327 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 226 million yuan respectively [2][3] Top Gainers in Electric Equipment Sector - The top gainers in the Electric Equipment sector included: - Ningde Times: +2.84%, turnover rate 0.75%, main capital flow 377.94 million yuan - Tongguan Copper Foil: +20.02%, turnover rate 48.19%, main capital flow 218.52 million yuan - Kelu Electronics: +10.06%, turnover rate 7.49%, main capital flow 178.39 million yuan [2] Top Losers in Electric Equipment Sector - The top losers in the Electric Equipment sector included: - Rongfa Nuclear Power: +0.42%, turnover rate 33.08%, main capital flow -327.43 million yuan - Sunshine Power: -0.57%, turnover rate 3.01%, main capital flow -249.65 million yuan - Nord Shares: -4.98%, turnover rate 14.04%, main capital flow -226.20 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" trend is gaining momentum across various industries, including automotive, photovoltaic, cement, and steel, driven by ongoing policy efforts [2][4] - The photovoltaic sector has shown particularly strong performance, with both Hong Kong and A-shares in this sector seeing cumulative gains of over 5% in the last five trading days [2] - Key photovoltaic stocks, such as Yamaton and GCL-Poly, have experienced cumulative price increases exceeding 10% over the same period [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has released multiple "anti-involution" policies this year, signaling a new round of supply-side reforms [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to combat "price wars" in the automotive industry, with major automotive companies committing to limit payment terms to suppliers [5] - In the photovoltaic sector, a meeting was held to address low-price competition, and significant production cuts have been announced, indicating a shift towards healthier market dynamics [5] Group 3 - Various securities firms have differing views on the sustainability of the "anti-involution" trend, with some suggesting it may only provide short-term opportunities [6][7] - Industry self-discipline and production cuts are expected to help narrow supply-demand gaps in the short term, while the overall impact of the policies may take time to materialize [7] - The potential phases of the "anti-involution" trend include initial policy-driven expectations, followed by resource price increases, but the actual realization of these phases depends on effective policy implementation and capacity reduction [7]