证 券 研 究 报 告 平安银行（000001）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 结构调整仍在进行，高端客户基本盘稳 目标价：13.28 元 事项： ❖ 3 月 14 日晚，平安银行披露 2024 年年报，全年实现营业收入 1466.95 亿元， 同比下降 10.9%；归母净利润 445.08 亿元，同比-4.2%。不良率 1.06%，环比 持平，拨备覆盖率 251%，环比持平。 评论： 公司研究 全国性股份制银行Ⅲ 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | | | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 1,940,591.82 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 1,940,561.75 | | 总市值(亿元) | 2,322.89 | | ...

行业研究 银行 2025 年 03 月 16 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20250310-20250316） 推荐（维持） 提振消费促进需求回暖，资产质量趋稳 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 114,991.99 | 13.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 78,973.67 | 11.41 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.0% | 17.3% | 17.7% | | 相对表现 | 2.8% | 15.6% | 24.4% | -12% 3% 19% 34% 24/03 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Ping An Bank (000001.SZ) with a current price of 11.97 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Ping An Bank's 2024 annual report shows a total operating income of 146.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.5 billion CNY, down 4.2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The bank's net interest income decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, while non-interest income grew by 14% [4][10]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.06%, with a provision coverage ratio above 250% [11][12]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the bank's revenue and net profit decreased by 10.9% and 4.2% respectively, with a weighted average return on equity (ROE) of 10.08%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 was 1.87%, a decrease of 6 basis points from the previous year [9]. - The bank's total assets increased to 5.77 trillion CNY, with a loan balance of 3.37 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% in interest-earning assets [27][28]. Business Segments - Retail financial services contributed 48.6% to revenue, down 9.8 percentage points from the previous year, while wholesale financial services increased their contribution to 43.5%, up 11 percentage points [5]. - The bank has actively reduced high-risk retail loans, with a focus on increasing mortgage and secured lending [6]. Capital Adequacy - As of the end of 2024, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.12%, with a total capital adequacy ratio of 13.11% [12][29]. - The bank's dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 27%, a slight decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous year [12]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 2.24 CNY and 2.26 CNY respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 2.30 CNY [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Ping An Bank (000001.SZ) with a current price of 11.97 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Ping An Bank's 2024 annual report shows a decline in operating income by 10.9% year-on-year to 146.7 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.5 billion CNY, down 4.2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The bank's net interest income decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, while non-interest income grew by 14% [4][10]. - The bank is undergoing a retail business transformation, with corporate banking becoming a key support for stabilizing net profit [5][6]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.06%, with a provision coverage ratio above 250% [11][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Ping An Bank's operating income and net profit decreased by 10.9% and 4.2% respectively, with a weighted average return on equity (ROE) of 10.08%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 was 1.87%, with a decrease of 6 basis points from the previous quarters [9]. - Non-interest income saw a significant increase, primarily driven by a 68.7% rise in net other non-interest income [10]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank's NPL ratio held steady at 1.06%, with a slight increase in corporate NPLs and a decrease in retail NPLs [11][12]. - The bank has actively reduced high-risk retail loans, focusing on stable mortgage and secured lending [6][7]. - The provision for credit losses was 49.4 billion CNY for the year, a decrease of 16.4% year-on-year [11]. Capital Adequacy and Dividends - As of the end of 2024, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.12%, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 27%, slightly down from the previous year [12][15]. - The bank's total assets increased to 5.77 trillion CNY, with risk-weighted assets growing by 6.5% year-on-year [27][28]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down to 2.24 CNY and 2.26 CNY respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 2.30 CNY [12][15]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected at 0.51 for 2025, 0.48 for 2026, and 0.45 for 2027 [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 10.9% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to decrease by 4.2% [5][9] - The report highlights a structural adjustment in the company's operations, with a focus on improving asset quality and reducing risk appetite [5][32] - The company is expected to benefit from its backing by a comprehensive financial group, enhancing its competitive position in both corporate and retail banking [32] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are forecasted at 146,695 million and 44,508 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.9% and -4.2% [3][9] - The net interest income is projected to decline by 20.8% year-on-year, while non-interest income is expected to grow by 14% [5][9] - The company’s net profit margin is anticipated to stabilize, with a slight improvement in the net interest margin expected in the coming years [5][12] Asset and Liability Management - The company continues to adjust its asset structure, with a notable increase in corporate loans and a reduction in retail loans, reflecting a strategic shift in risk management [18][22] - The proportion of demand deposits has increased, contributing to a decrease in funding costs [22][12] - The overall asset quality is improving, with a reduction in the non-performing loan ratio for retail loans [27][28] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is expected to grow significantly, driven by a 68.8% increase in other non-interest income, while fee income is projected to decline by 18.1% [24][5] - The contribution of non-interest income to total revenue is becoming increasingly important, indicating a shift in the company's revenue generation strategy [24][5] Asset Quality - The report indicates a positive trend in asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.06% and a decrease in the retail loan non-performing ratio to 1.39% [29][28] - The company has maintained a strong provision coverage ratio of 250.71%, ensuring a buffer against potential loan losses [29][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on its structural adjustments and improve asset quality, with projected price-to-book ratios of 0.51X, 0.47X, and 0.44X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [32][5] - Investors are encouraged to monitor the company's transformation efforts closely, as it aims to evolve into a high-quality bank [32][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank [1] Core Views - The capital market has anticipated the pressure on Ping An Bank's profit for 2024, primarily due to a continuous decline in revenue and proactive provisioning, which has turned profit growth negative. The bank's revenue for 2024 decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 4.2% [6][8] - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of the retail structure and a reduction in high-risk loans, indicating that credit growth will depend on the recovery of demand from low-risk retail customers [6][11] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for Ping An Bank from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Total revenue (million): 2023: 164,699, 2024: 146,695, 2025E: 134,677, 2026E: 133,440, 2027E: 138,182 [5] - Net profit (million): 2023: 46,455, 2024: 44,508, 2025E: 44,109, 2026E: 44,407, 2027E: 45,677 [5] - The report projects a decline in net profit growth rates for 2025-2026, with estimates of -0.9% and 0.7% respectively [6][9] Key Financial Metrics - As of the end of 2024, the bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.06%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 251% [4][6] - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 1.7%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 17 basis points [9][12] - The report notes a significant reduction in retail loans, with a total decrease of 334 billion yuan in 2024, including a reduction of over 210 billion yuan in retail loans [6][11] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The report emphasizes the importance of actively managing problem assets and maintaining a stable asset quality, with a focus on potential risks in real estate loans and retail loan risk mitigation [9][14] - The bank's proactive approach to asset write-offs and provisioning is highlighted as a strategic move to strengthen its financial position [9][14] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 has been reduced to 28.3%, aligning with the industry average, which corresponds to an estimated dividend yield of approximately 5.08% for 2025 [6][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" with a target of outperforming the market benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [12][56]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the pressure on asset quality has been released, and concerns regarding the bank's annual performance and dividends have been alleviated, suggesting that negative sentiment may have peaked [12]. - The bank's net profit growth for Q4 2024 decreased by 29.9%, with a significant increase in provisions amounting to approximately 17.4 billion yuan compared to Q4 2023 [3][4]. - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.06% as of the end of 2024, unchanged from Q3 [4][11]. Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance Review - Revenue growth for Q4 2024 was -5.3%, a narrowing decline compared to Q3, primarily due to a rapid decline in interest rates and a 123% year-on-year increase in non-interest income from bond investments [2][3]. - The net profit growth for Q4 2024 was -29.9%, with a provision of approximately 17.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in provisions compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.06% and a focus on improving retail loan quality [4][11]. Full Year 2024 Performance Review - In 2024, Ping An Bank focused on optimizing its asset structure and reducing high-risk retail assets, leading to a contraction in loan scale and a significant decline in net interest margin [5][11]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was set at 27%, reflecting the bank's consideration of capital adequacy and reasonable dividend levels [5]. 2025 Operational Outlook - The bank is expected to see a marginal recovery in performance in 2025, with loan growth anticipated to return to normal levels as consumer demand recovers [6][11]. - The decline in net interest margin is expected to narrow significantly, with improvements in asset quality and a reduction in high-risk retail assets [11][12]. - Revenue growth projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at -5.5%, 3.7%, and 7.0%, while net profit growth is projected at 2.1%, 4.6%, and 7.8% respectively [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [12][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pressure on asset quality and provisioning has been released in Q4 2024, suggesting that market concerns regarding the bank's annual performance and dividends have been alleviated [12]. - It is anticipated that the bank's performance will marginally recover in 2025, with loan growth expected to return to normal levels due to the recovery of consumer demand and the increase in mid-risk product offerings [6][11]. Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance Review - In Q4 2024, revenue growth rate was -5.3%, a narrowing decline compared to Q3, primarily due to a rapid decline in interest rates and a 123% year-on-year increase in non-interest income from bond investments [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.9% in Q4 2024, with a significant increase in provisioning of approximately 17.4 billion yuan compared to Q4 2023 [3][4]. - Asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.06% at the end of 2024, unchanged from Q3 [4]. Full Year 2024 Performance Review - Throughout 2024, Ping An Bank focused on optimizing its asset structure and reducing high-risk retail assets, leading to a contraction in loan scale and a significant decline in net interest margin [5][11]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was set at 27%, reflecting the bank's consideration of capital adequacy and reasonable dividend levels [5]. 2025 Operational Outlook - The bank's loan scale at the end of 2024 was 3,374.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.4 billion yuan from the end of 2023, but a recovery in loan growth is expected in 2025 [6][11]. - The net interest margin decline is projected to narrow significantly, with the bank's credit cost improving by 29 basis points year-on-year to 1.56% in 2024 [11][12]. - Revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are forecasted at -5.5%, 3.7%, and 7.0%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 2.1%, 4.6%, and 7.8% [11][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank [1] Core Views - The bank's 2024 revenue decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.5 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant decline in profit due to increased provisioning [4][6] - The bank's strategy focuses on optimizing its credit structure, with a notable reduction in high-risk retail loans and a cautious approach to corporate lending [6][9] - The bank's net interest margin has been under pressure due to interest rate cuts and a decrease in high-yield retail loans, leading to a 21% decline in net interest income for 2024 [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to decline from 164,699 in 2023 to 134,677 in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.19% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease slightly from 46,455 in 2023 to 44,109 in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -0.90% [5] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at around 1.06% through 2025, with a provisioning coverage ratio projected to decline to 239.90% [5][6] Key Financial Metrics - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.13 yuan in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.39% [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.63 in 2025, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 0.51 [5][9] Loan and Asset Quality - The bank's total loans decreased by 33.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant reduction in retail loans exceeding 210 billion yuan [6][11] - The NPL ratio for corporate loans increased to 1.79% in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating rising risks in the real estate sector [9][14] - Retail loan NPL generation is estimated to remain high at around 2.51% for 2024, despite a slight decrease in the overall retail loan NPL ratio [9][14] Dividend Policy - The bank has reduced its cash dividend payout ratio to 28.3% for 2024, which corresponds to a projected dividend yield of approximately 5.08% for 2025 [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank [5] Core Views - In 2024, Ping An Bank reported revenue of 146.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.5 billion yuan, down 4.19% year-on-year. As of December 31, 2024, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and provision coverage ratio were 1.06% and 250.71%, respectively, remaining stable and decreasing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1][2][4] - The bank's dividend payout for 2024 was 6.08 yuan per 10 shares, with an annual dividend ratio of 27% [1] - The report highlights improvements in asset quality, with a decrease in personal loan NPL ratio and a reduction in NPL generation pressure year-on-year [4][11] Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit growth rates for 2024 were -10.93% and -4.19%, respectively, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous three quarters [2] - Net interest income for 2024 decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, with a net interest margin of 1.87%, down 6 basis points from the previous quarter [2][3] - Non-interest income showed a significant increase of 68.8% year-on-year, primarily driven by investment income of 24.6 billion yuan, which grew by 53.3% [3] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio and attention ratio for Q4 2024 were 1.06% and 1.93%, respectively, with the provision coverage ratio at 250.7% [4] - The NPL generation rate for 2024 was 1.86%, a decrease of 6 basis points compared to 2023 [4] Asset and Liability Management - As of Q4 2024, total assets and loans were 5.8 trillion yuan and 3.4 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.26% and a slight decline of 0.98% [9] - The bank has significantly reduced high-risk loans and increased the proportion of mortgage loans, with high-risk loans decreasing and mortgage loans accounting for 62.8% of total loans [9][10] Business Development - Retail customer numbers reached 126 million, with assets under management (AUM) growing by 4.0% to 4.19 trillion yuan [11] - The bank's private banking client base increased by 7.3% to 96,800 clients, with private banking AUM growing by 3.1% to 1.98 trillion yuan [11]