证券研究报告 | 2025年10月26日 平安银行（000001.SZ）2025 年三季报点评 中性 息差环比回升，资产质量平稳 收入利润降幅略收窄。2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 1007 亿元，同比下降 9.8%，降幅较上半年收窄 0.2 个百分点；前三季度实现归母净利润 383 亿元， 同比下降 3.5%，降幅较上半年收窄 0.4 个百分点。前三季度年化加权平均 ROE11.6%，同比下降 1.1 个百分点。 资产规模较年初基本持平。2025 年三季末总资产同比增长 0.4%至 5.77 万亿 元，较年初基本持平。三季度末存款本金较年初增长 0.6%至 3.55 万亿元， 贷款总额较年初增长 1.3%至 3.42 万亿元。其中一般企业贷款增长较好，较 年初增长 10.0%，个人贷款规模较年初下降 2.1%。三季度末核心一级资本充 足率 9.52%，较年初略有回升。表外方面，三季度末零售 AUM 为 4.21 万亿元， 较年初增长 0.5%。 得益于负债成本改善，净息差环比回升。前三季度日均净息差 1.79%，同比 降低 14bps，主要受市场利率下行、贷款结构调整等因素影响。环比来看， 三季度日均净息 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Accumulate" (maintained rating) with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The profitability of Ping An Bank is steadily improving, with a reported revenue of approximately 100.67 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 9.78% but a slight increase of 0.26 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [2]. - The net interest margin has stabilized at 1.79%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point from the first half of 2025. The yield on interest-earning assets is recorded at 3.50%, down 5 basis points from mid-2025, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities has improved significantly, decreasing by 6 basis points to 1.73% [2][3]. - The asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.05% as of the third quarter of 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter. The loan provision coverage ratio stands at 229.6%, reflecting a decrease of 8.88 percentage points [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the net interest income was 66.55 billion yuan, accounting for 66.11% of total revenue, while non-interest income was 34.12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.63% [2]. - The total interest-earning assets amounted to 5.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.60%. The loan segment grew by 1.24% year-on-year, while interbank and central bank deposits saw declines of 7.29% and 6.34%, respectively [3][19]. - The total interest-bearing liabilities were 4.97 trillion yuan, down 0.98% year-on-year, with deposits decreasing by 3.06% [3][20]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected to decline by 3.09% in 2025, followed by growth of 2.33% in 2026 and 2.70% in 2027. The corresponding book value per share (BPS) is expected to be 23.24 yuan, 24.93 yuan, and 26.65 yuan for the respective years [4][22].

Core Insights - The financial reports for the third quarter of 2025 from Huaxia Bank and Ping An Bank indicate a decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to various market factors and operational challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Huaxia Bank - Huaxia Bank reported a revenue of 648.81 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.79%, and a net profit of 179.82 billion yuan, down 2.86% [1][3]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.58%, while the provision coverage ratio fell to 149.33% and the loan provision ratio decreased to 2.36% [1][3]. - The CEO attributed the revenue decline primarily to fluctuations in the bond market, which affected fair value changes, while net interest income remained stable [3]. Group 2: Ping An Bank - Ping An Bank achieved a revenue of 1006.68 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, with a net profit of 383.39 billion yuan, down 3.5% [4][5]. - The bank cited two main factors for the revenue drop: a decrease in loan interest rates and market volatility affecting non-interest income [4]. - The NPL ratio for Ping An Bank decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 1.05%, with a provision coverage ratio of 229.60% [5].

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月26日 平安银行（000001.SZ）2025 年三季报点评 中性 息差环比回升，资产质量平稳 收入利润降幅略收窄。2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 1007 亿元，同比下降 9.8%，降幅较上半年收窄 0.2 个百分点；前三季度实现归母净利润 383 亿元， 同比下降 3.5%，降幅较上半年收窄 0.4 个百分点。前三季度年化加权平均 ROE11.6%，同比下降 1.1 个百分点。 资产规模较年初基本持平。2025 年三季末总资产同比增长 0.4%至 5.77 万亿 元，较年初基本持平。三季度末存款本金较年初增长 0.6%至 3.55 万亿元， 贷款总额较年初增长 1.3%至 3.42 万亿元。其中一般企业贷款增长较好，较 年初增长 10.0%，个人贷款规模较年初下降 2.1%。三季度末核心一级资本充 足率 9.52%，较年初略有回升。表外方面，三季度末零售 AUM 为 4.21 万亿元， 较年初增长 0.5%。 得益于负债成本改善，净息差环比回升。前三季度日均净息差 1.79%，同比 降低 14bps，主要受市场利率下行、贷款结构调整等因素影响。环比来看， 三季度日均净息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Communications announced an adjustment to its precious metals wallet accumulation plan, linking the minimum investment amount to real-time gold prices, effective from October 27, 9:30 AM [1][4]. Group 1: Changes in Investment Thresholds - The minimum investment amount for the Bank of Communications' accumulation plan will now be greater than or equal to the real-time gold price, with increments required in multiples of 100 [1][3]. - Other banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and Ping An Bank, have also raised their minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation products in October [4][5]. - For instance, ICBC increased its minimum investment from 850 yuan to 1000 yuan, while Bank of China raised it from 850 yuan to 950 yuan [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - There has been a significant increase in inquiries and trading activity in gold accumulation products, particularly as international gold prices show strong momentum [8]. - The shift in customer asset allocation is attributed to the low yields of traditional financial products and time deposits, making gold accumulation an attractive option due to its clear investment threshold and direct linkage to physical gold [8]. - Experts indicate that banks are upgrading their risk management for gold accumulation businesses due to increased gold price volatility and regulatory requirements [8]. Group 3: Gold Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Gold prices have surged over 50% this year, leading to increased volatility and a rise in the risk of margin calls, prompting banks to raise minimum investment amounts and margin requirements [8]. - Analysts predict that gold prices are likely to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term, with underlying support from global central bank purchases and expectations of monetary easing [9]. - The current market is characterized by a crowded long position in gold, with profit-taking contributing to short-term volatility, while long-term upward trends remain intact due to ongoing global uncertainties [9].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Ping An Bank shows signs of improvement in profitability pressure and risk generation, with a focus on the recovery of balance sheet expansion and changes in corporate risk [1] Data Overview - For Q1 to Q3 of 2025, Ping An Bank's operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.8% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 0.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points compared to H1 2025 [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.05%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 9 percentage points to 230% [2] Profitability Pressure Improvement - The overall profitability pressure has continued to improve since Q2, driven by a stabilization and recovery in interest margins and increased contributions from impairment [3][4] - The average interest-earning assets decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with significant reductions in interbank and bill assets by 6.4% and 41.1%, respectively [4] Interest Margin Recovery - In Q3 2025, the interest margin increased by 3 basis points to 1.79%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 7 basis points compared to Q2 2025 [5][8] - The yield on assets decreased by 8 basis points to 3.40%, primarily due to a decline in loan rates across the industry, while the cost of liabilities improved by 13 basis points to 1.61% [8] Retail Transformation Deepening - Retail loans showed a slight increase in Q3 2025, marking the first halt in decline since Q1 2024, attributed to the ongoing pilot of mid-yield retail loans [9] - Wealth management business continued to grow, with the number of wealth clients reaching 1.4911 million, an increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [9] Risk Generation Improvement - As of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan ratio, attention rate, and overdue rate remained stable, with the non-performing and attention combined TTM generation rate significantly decreasing by 52 basis points to 1.74% [10][11] - Retail non-performing loans continued to improve, while corporate non-performing loans showed volatility, necessitating close monitoring of risks in the corporate sector [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Ping An Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to decline by 2.00%, followed by slight increases of 0.12% and 1.45% [12] - The target price is maintained at 14.00 CNY per share, corresponding to a 0.61x PB for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Communications announced a change in its precious metals wallet accumulation plan, linking the minimum investment amount to real-time gold prices, reflecting the recent volatility in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Changes in Investment Thresholds - Starting from October 27, the minimum investment amount for the precious metals wallet will be adjusted to be greater than or equal to the real-time gold price, with increments in multiples of 100 [1]. - Other banks, including ICBC, Bank of China, and Ping An Bank, have also raised their minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation products in October [3]. - For example, ICBC increased its minimum investment from 850 yuan to 1000 yuan, while Bank of China raised it from 850 yuan to 950 yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Context and Drivers - Gold prices have seen significant fluctuations, with a reported increase of 24% since late August, reaching historical highs [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: declining real interest rates, increasing geopolitical tensions, and central banks in emerging markets boosting their gold reserves [4]. - Recent market corrections in gold prices are linked to changes in geopolitical situations and easing concerns over the U.S. government shutdown [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - The report highlights significant improvements in risk generation and profitability pressures for Ping An Bank in Q3 2025, with a focus on the recovery of balance sheet expansion and changes in corporate risk [1]. - The bank's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 9.8% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively, but showed a slight improvement compared to the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.05% at the end of Q3 2025, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 9 percentage points to 230% [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 to Q3 2025, Ping An Bank's revenue and net profit decreased by 9.8% and 3.5% year-on-year, with improvements of 0.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The bank's average interest-earning assets decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, with significant reductions in interbank and bill assets by 6.4% and 41.1%, respectively [2][3]. Profitability - The net interest margin for Q3 2025 increased by 3 basis points to 1.79%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 7 basis points compared to Q2 2025 [3]. - Non-interest income for the first three quarters of 2025 showed a slight decline of 0.1%, while other non-interest income decreased by 24.1% year-on-year [2][3]. Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio, attention loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio remained stable or improved, with the non-performing loan ratio at 1.05% and the attention loan ratio decreasing to 1.74% [5][19]. - The TTM generation rate for non-performing and attention loans significantly decreased by 52 basis points to 1.74%, indicating improved risk generation [5][20]. Retail Transformation - Retail loans showed a slight recovery with a 0.1% increase in average daily balance in Q3 2025, marking the first halt in decline since Q1 2024 [4]. - Wealth management business continued to grow, with wealth management income reaching nearly 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for Ping An Bank from 2025 to 2027 is expected to decline by 2.00% in 2025, followed by slight growth in subsequent years [6]. - The target price is maintained at 14.00 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.61x for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Communications announced a change in its precious metals wallet accumulation plan, linking the minimum investment amount to real-time gold prices starting from October 27, 9:30 AM, in response to market fluctuations [1][4]. Group 1: Changes in Accumulation Plan - The minimum investment amount for the precious metals wallet will now be at least equal to the real-time gold price, with increments required to be in multiples of 100 [1][2]. - For example, if the gold price is 923 CNY per gram, the minimum amount for the accumulation plan would be 1000 CNY, based on a trading increment of 100 CNY [2]. Group 2: Market Context - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with the London gold price closing at 4111.555 USD per ounce on October 24, despite a recent pullback from a peak on October 20 [4]. - Since late August, gold prices have risen sharply, with a cumulative increase of 24% compared to the closing price on August 19 [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Several banks, including ICBC, Bank of China, Ping An Bank, and Industrial Bank, have raised their minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation plans in October [5][6]. - For instance, ICBC increased its minimum investment for the "Ruyi Gold" accumulation business from 850 CNY to 1000 CNY starting October 13 [6]. - The new floating pricing mechanism adopted by the Bank of Communications is seen as advantageous compared to the fixed amount model used by most banks, as it addresses the issue of delayed pricing adjustments during periods of significant gold price fluctuations [6].

Core Insights - The annual shopping festival "Double 11" has commenced, with banks actively participating by offering cashback, installment benefits, and exclusive discount coupons to capture consumer spending [1][2] - Banks aim to enhance both business and user value while strengthening long-term customer loyalty through differentiated welfare strategies [1] Group 1: Bank Promotions - Major banks such as Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Ping An Bank have launched promotional activities during "Double 11" [1][2] - Bank of China is offering a random discount of 5-20 yuan for payments over 1000 yuan on platforms like Taobao and Tmall [1] - China Merchants Bank's "Smash the Golden Egg for Daily Cashback" campaign runs from October 10 to November 15, offering up to 1111 yuan in cashback vouchers [2] Group 2: Payment Activation Strategies - Experts suggest that banks' promotional activities are a strategic move to create a closed-loop system for acquiring, activating, and retaining customers [7] - The fourth quarter is crucial for retail and credit card loan balances, with banks using interest-free installments to boost transaction volumes and fee income [7] - Banks are embedding their payment tools into consumer shopping processes through various incentives, aiming to increase usage frequency and user engagement [7][8] Group 3: Policy and Market Context - Recent policies from the Ministry of Commerce emphasize reducing personal consumption credit costs, with banks substituting subsidies for interest rate cuts to alleviate pressure on their operations [8] - The collaboration model among banks, platforms, and merchants is evolving, indicating that promotional subsidies will become a regular tool for retail banking [8]