对等关税冲击后，美元-美债的避险属性备受考验。从资金流量及期货空头头寸看，基差交易及海外抛售可能均非美债下跌的主因。谁在"抛售"美债？未来还 需关注哪些潜在风险？ 一、 热点思考：美债，风险"解除"了吗？ 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 赵 宇 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 赵 宇 （一） 股债汇"三杀"，这次有何不同？ 70年代以来，美国出现过8次股债汇"三杀"，其中3次出现了衰退。 股债汇"三杀"的宏观场景有：一是美联储政策剧烈调整；二是大宗或地缘冲击；三是经 济、金融重大冲击。期间，美股单日平均下跌4.6个点，10年美债利率平均上涨15BP，美元平均下跌1.3个百分点。 对等关税冲击后，美元、美债的避险属性均未体现。 2020年3月，美国市场出现资金争夺（Dash for Cash），各类资产均被抛售以换取现金，但美债指数短期 下跌后，2月至3月仍上涨15%，避险功能未受质疑；2025年的不同之处在于，美债出现更长时间的下跌。 从资金流量观察，美国债券市场资金流出方主要为美国本土资金、其次为欧洲。 参考EPFR数据，4月8日，美国债市资金流出量达88亿美元，为近10年来第 二大单日净流出量。从国别上来看，美国本土资 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss macroeconomic policies and trade negotiations involving the United States, European Union, Japan, and China, with a focus on the implications for the U.S. capital markets and the domestic economic environment in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Trade Negotiations** - The EU and the U.S. have restarted high-level trade talks, but no specific timeline has been set. The UK is cautious about reaching a trade agreement, emphasizing food safety standards [1][2] - In U.S.-China negotiations, there is a proposal to reduce current tariffs on China from approximately 145% to about half, but China denies any such discussions [2] - U.S.-Japan negotiations have begun, focusing on automotive market access, increased agricultural imports, and defense cost sharing, with Japan taking a cautious stance [1][2] 2. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The Federal Reserve has adopted a dovish tone, indicating potential rate cuts if the job market deteriorates, with a 58% probability of a rate cut in June [1][4][10] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI was slightly above expectations at 50.7, while the services PMI was below expectations at 51.4 [4] 3. **Impact of Tariff Policies** - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has significantly impacted the U.S. capital markets, particularly the bond market, and has led to a redistribution of power within Trump's team regarding trade negotiations [5] - The Treasury Secretary has played a crucial role in U.S.-China negotiations, with ongoing discussions with India and Vietnam [5] 4. **Liquidity and Debt Ceiling Issues** - The Federal Reserve may adjust or end its balance sheet reduction by mid-2025, but the debt ceiling issue has temporarily released liquidity into the market [6][7] - If the debt ceiling is resolved, the replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could tighten liquidity in Q3 2025, posing risks to leveraged traders [6] 5. **Japan's Response to Tariffs** - Japan has implemented measures to support businesses, focusing on consulting and financing rather than direct subsidies, to enhance competitiveness and resilience against international trade challenges [8] 6. **Domestic Economic Policies in China** - The Chinese government is emphasizing the protection of domestic demand and is prepared to implement more effective measures to address external risks [3][14] - There is a focus on accelerating the issuance of local government bonds and special long-term bonds to support fiscal spending [16] - Monetary policy will include targeted loans for service consumption and elderly care to stimulate related industries [17] 7. **Employment and Consumption Policies** - The Chinese government prioritizes employment stability, with measures to support affected industries and enhance the unemployment insurance fund [19][20] - There is a significant push to develop service consumption, which has a larger potential gap compared to goods consumption, indicating a shift in policy focus [18][25] 8. **Real Estate Market Dynamics** - The real estate market is expected to maintain stability despite recent sales declines, with a need for monitoring land acquisition and storage policies [21] 9. **Policy Implementation and Future Directions** - The recent political bureau meeting indicates a clear policy direction focusing on economic stability and preparedness for external challenges, with an emphasis on structural adjustments in response to changing economic conditions [22][24] - The government is likely to introduce new structural monetary tools to address specific economic issues as they arise [24][31] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The records highlight the importance of maintaining a balance between domestic economic growth and external trade pressures, with a clear acknowledgment of the complexities introduced by ongoing trade tensions [26][29] - The need for effective mechanisms to transition some export goods to domestic consumption is emphasized, particularly in light of tariff impacts [28] - The potential for policy measures to support low-income groups affected by trade disruptions is noted, including social security enhancements [29] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and policy directions.

不过在此次人士调整后，申万宏源研究所的实际"一把手"仍然是原所长周海晨。记者从多位知情人士处 了解到，周海晨目前仍然是申万宏源研究所党委书记、申万宏源证券执委会委员，并分管研究所。 每经记者 王海慜 每经编辑 肖芮冬 又有券商研究所所长将发生变更。《每日经济新闻》记者获悉，现任申万宏源研究所副所长、首席策略 分析师王胜，将被内部提拔为申万宏源研究所所长。 另据了解，申万宏源研究所原所长、现任申万宏源证券执委周海晨目前仍然是研究所的"一把手"。 在公募降费引发的新一轮"洗牌"背景下，今年前4个月已有多家券商研究所"换将"，折射出行业谋求变 革的基本态势。 据记者了解，现任申万宏源研究所副所长王胜，将升任为申万宏源研究所所长，本次岗位调整属于内部 提拔。从履历上来看，王胜此前曾任申万宏源研究所副总经理、首席策略分析师。值得一提的是，从应 届毕业生开始，王胜的分析师生涯一直在申万宏源研究所度过，先后从事行业和策略研究。 作为一家设立已有33年的老牌券商研究所，近年来申万宏源研究所也面临着来自外部竞争的压力。从分 仓佣金排名来看，申万宏源研究所遇到了不少来自同行的挑战。 目前，随着外部分仓佣金"蛋糕"大幅缩水，内部转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute is set to appoint Wang Sheng as the new director, reflecting a strategic internal promotion aimed at enhancing leadership and research capabilities in response to market demands [2][3]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Wang Sheng, currently the chief strategy analyst and deputy general manager, will be promoted to the director of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute [2]. - This internal promotion is part of a broader strategy to strengthen the leadership team and enhance the research institute's strategic layout [3]. Group 2: Youthful Management Trend - The research institute has seen a significant trend towards a younger management team, with several key appointments of analysts born in the 1980s and 1990s [4]. - Recent appointments include Liu Yang as assistant general manager and Zhao Wei as deputy general manager, both from the younger generation [4]. Group 3: Talent Development Strategy - Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute has optimized its selection and training mechanisms for backup personnel, resulting in a younger average age among its leadership team [5]. - The institute has established a comprehensive talent development system, including training courses and mentorship programs, to ensure sustainable team development [5]. Group 4: Business Model Transformation - Since 2019, the research institute has initiated an internal transformation to align with the parent company's strategic shift, moving from a commission-based income model to a diversified revenue model [6]. - The revenue structure is evolving, with a gradual increase in the proportion of income from securities investment consulting and internal business collaboration, although commission income remains the primary source [6].

2025 年 04 月 26 日 关键验证期后的变与不变 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/04/21-25/04/26) 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 一 周 回 顾 展 望 ⚫ 一、A 股政策预期保持稳定的三个条件：1. 增量政策布局的保留空间。2. 存量政策加速 落地执行。3. 政府债券发行加速，为三季度稳增长储备资源。4 月政治局会议存量政策 "用好用足"，增量政策"备足预案"，资本市场"稳定"基础上还要"活跃"，全面覆 盖市场期待。政策关键验证期，A 股预期将保持稳定。 ⚫ 4 月 25 日政治局会议召开，政策布局全面契合市场期待。 ...

中央分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作 4月 25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理 念，加快构建新发展格局，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、 稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。 会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力 支持实体经济。创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸。会议指出，要不断完善稳就业 稳经济的政策工具箱，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的 基本面。（财联社） 点击上图 ▲立即报名 ｜点评｜ 中国一季度经济延续复苏态势，国际贸易环境却再生变化。本次中央政治局会议对中国经济发展状况做出了全面的分析，并及时为下 一步经济发展路径指明了方向。会议为中美贸易摩擦定调，以稳字当头来应对美国关税政策的不确定性，给国内外企业 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Hainuo Environmental Industry Co., Ltd.'s application for an initial public offering (IPO) being terminated by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange due to internal control deficiencies in R&D investment and improper accounting practices [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the sponsor for Hainuo's IPO, failed to adequately address and verify these issues, leading to inaccurate verification opinions and incomplete documentation [2][3] - This incident marks the second disciplinary action against Shenwan Hongyuan in a month, following a previous reprimand related to another company's IPO process [2][4] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange highlighted that Shenwan Hongyuan's sponsorship duties were not fulfilled adequately, including insufficient verification of R&D personnel and investment accuracy, governance deficiencies, and risks related to accounts receivable [3] - On April 18, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced self-regulatory measures against Shenwan Hongyuan and its representatives, indicating ongoing scrutiny of their practices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that after the unexpected tariff policy on April 2, 2025, which caused liquidity shocks, gold prices surged and briefly exceeded $3,500 per ounce, before quickly retreating to $3,300 due to fluctuating attitudes from Trump regarding tariffs. The medium to long-term trend for gold prices remains upward, with a projected range of $3,209 to $3,905 per ounce in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Trends - Recent rapid increases in gold prices are characterized by significant volatility, driven by physical demand, Asian capital inflows, and a substantial decline in the US dollar index [2]. - Gold price volatility has risen sharply, currently at the 89.2 percentile historically, as uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has led to increased safe-haven investments in gold [2]. - The divergence between COMEX gold net long positions and gold price trends indicates a shift from speculative pricing to a supply-demand pricing model, with physical investment funds like SPDR Gold ETF increasing their holdings [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, after adjustments, a favorable allocation window for gold is anticipated, with a focus on monitoring gold price volatility trends [3]. - If Trump's tariff stance significantly eases or if negotiations with other countries progress positively, gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations and a downward trend in volatility [3]. - Key fundamental events to watch include the progress of US tariff policy negotiations and short-term fluctuations in central bank gold purchases, which have been a core driver of gold price increases in 2023 [3]. Group 3: Medium-Term Considerations - The ongoing decline in the credibility of the US dollar and its reserve status may lead to a sustained increase in gold price levels [4]. - The backdrop of de-globalization suggests a long-term downtrend for the US dollar index, exacerbated by rising fiscal deficits and the challenges of implementing tax cuts [4]. - High policy uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is expected to continue supporting gold prices, as the current environment is markedly different from 2018 [4]. Group 4: Quantitative Analysis - The quantitative model projects that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,209 and $3,905 per ounce in 2025, based on a framework that has shown a high correlation with historical gold prices [5]. - The model identifies four key pricing factors for gold since 2022: global central bank gold reserves, US fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty in the US, and the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds [5].

近日，由申万宏源证券担任联席主承销商的中国航空器材集团有限公司2025年度 第一期中期票据成功发行，本期中期票据发行规模6.00亿元，期限5年，主体评级 AAA，票面利率2.00%。 发行人是国资委直属的中央企业，是国内目前最大的第三方航材保障综合服务提供 商，业务板块涉及自营业务、航空周转件租赁业务、飞机租赁、飞机批量采购及其他代 理业务等多个板块。本期中期票据的发行创中国航材在资本市场融资成本新低，有效拓 宽了其资产市场融资渠道、显著降低了其融资成本，为发行人在航空器材保障、飞机配 套服务及国际化布局等领域提供资金支持。 本次合作是申万宏源服务央企高质量融资的又一里程碑。作为首次与中国航材携 手，申万宏源凭借专业的承销能力与对航空产业的深刻理解，精准匹配发行人需求，高 效完成发行工作。这不仅有助于双方建立良好默契的信任关系和形成长期稳固的深入合 作，也提升了申万宏源在央企金融服务领域的品牌影响力。 免责 声 明 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 ...

本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 近日， 由申万宏源主承销的"中国铁建股份有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发 行科技创新可续期公司债券(第一期)"成功发行，品种一和品种二发行规模分别为15亿 元、15亿元，期限为3+N、5+N年期，票面利率为2.08%、2.18%。本期债券品种一和 品种二均创发行人同期限永续债券票面利率历史新低。 本次债券为科技创新债券，发行人实施创新驱动发展，不断健全完善科技创新管理 体制机制，大力加强科技创新工作，加快产业技术创新，用高新技术提升企业竞争力， 在一系列重大技术上取得突破，掌握了诸多关键核心技术，取得了丰硕的科技创新成 果，培育了一批高层次科技创新平台、创新团队和创新人才。发行人以国家中长期发展 战略为依据，以市场为导向，把发展作为主题，提高企业市场竞争能力作为主线，创新 和改革作为动力，围绕铁路、公路、地铁、市政、房建等领域，开发桥梁、隧道、路 基、轨道、电务、房建、机械等专业的重大关键技术，全面提高技术创新能力，形成系 统的核心竞争力，促进企业的全面建设和协调发展。 免责 声 明 ...