技术层面来看，当前美元兑日元呈现典型的区间整理特征，MACD指标显示上涨推动力正在衰减，但 RSI指标维持在55附近略偏多头且未达极端水平，表明市场尚未形成单边趋势。其中，上方157.7-157.9 日元区域为密集阻力带，多次压制价格上行；下方155.7日元为关键支撑位，一旦跌破可能进一步测试 154.34日元附近水平。结合日本取引所数据显示的年末交投冷淡态势，美元兑日元短期或围绕155日元 中线横盘整理，下方154日元区间支撑力度需重点关注。 加息失效源于政策矛盾：央行指引模糊削弱紧缩可信度，高市早苗内阁积极财政推高债务风险，引发国 债抛售与加息政策对冲，加剧"债汇双杀"和日元贬值。 相较于短期的区间拉锯，机构对日元中长期走势普遍持悲观态度。摩根大通、法国巴黎银行等机构策略 师预测，受美日利差仍存、日本实际利率为负及资本外流等核心因素影响，2026年底美元兑日元可能跌 至160甚至164日元水平；福冈金融集团更指出，若美联储降息周期结束，叠加日本央行渐进式加息难以 改变基本面弱势，汇率或进一步触及165日元。当前市场看空情绪已处于高位，CFTC数据显示，截至12 月9日当周，杠杆基金对日元的看跌程度达到20 ...

日本央行此前将"按兵不动"的重要原因归结于对美国政府高关税政策影响的评估尚未完成，需要确认高 关税是否会显著冲击日本企业经营、抑制投资和工资增长，从而破坏刚刚出现的价格和工资改善势头。 但事实上，在10月的货币政策会议中，日本央行内部已基本形成高关税政策对国内企业直接影响有限的 共识。日本央行行长植田和男也在本月月初明确表示，对未来的不确定性正在逐渐消退。此外，日本央 行高度关注的明年春季劳资谈判"初期势头"已显现积极信号。由总行及全国33家分支机构实施的辖区内 企业加薪意向调查显示，有31家分支机构认为，2026财年的加薪幅度将高于或至少与上年度持平。 日本央行近期"按兵不动"的更重要原因来自政府立场。经济界普遍认为，日本政府倾向于积极财政政 策，对加息持谨慎态度，日本央行一度担忧与政府发生政策冲突。分析认为，此次央行加息是日本政府 在多重压力下的"妥协"。首先，在财政扩张政策持续推进的背景下，政府难以忽视日元疲软和通胀风 险。若央行长期停滞加息，日元持续贬值将对冲政府为遏制物价上涨所作的努力。其次，干预央行货币 政策将损害其独立性，可能违反《日本央行法》。再次，美国政府对日本央行的货币政策虎视眈眈，这 些 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence between the Japanese stock market and the yen, highlighting that while the Nikkei 225 index has approached historical highs, the yen has depreciated significantly [3][9][71] - Since June, the Nikkei 225 has surged by 9.2%, with foreign capital inflows totaling $5.11 billion, while the yen has weakened by 2.4% during the same period [3][9][71] - The article notes that this divergence is not uncommon in Japan, as currency depreciation can improve corporate earnings, particularly for companies with significant overseas revenue [18][71] Group 2 - The article identifies low inflation expectations and a cooling of interest rate hike predictions as key factors contributing to the yen's weakness [32][72] - Japan's core CPI has been influenced more by imported factors, and inflation has consistently fallen short of expectations, leading to a reduction in market expectations for interest rate hikes from 0.7 times to 0.6 times per year [32][72] - The article also mentions that unsuccessful trade negotiations between the US and Japan, along with political turmoil from recent Senate elections, have exacerbated the yen's weakness [4][41][72] Group 3 - Following the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have increased from 42.1% to 68.1% [5][51][72] - However, the article warns that insufficient inflation persistence may still hinder significant interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan [5][51][72] - The focus moving forward will be on the upcoming leadership election within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and potential fiscal expansion, which could lead to concerns about a "debt and currency double whammy" [58][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, the Nikkei 225 index approached a record high again. While foreign capital continued to flow in, the yen depreciated significantly. The divergence between stocks and exchange rates is not uncommon in Japan, mainly due to the improvement of stock earnings caused by depreciation. What's relatively abnormal is the weakness of the yen under a weak - dollar environment. Usually, the yen is stronger when the dollar is weak, but recently its trend has clearly diverged from that of the euro [2][16][56]. - The lack of inflation stickiness and lower - than - expected inflation have led to a cooling of interest - rate hike expectations, which is one of the reasons for the recent weakness of the yen. Currently, the rebound of Japan's core CPI is mainly driven by imported factors, with weak inflation stickiness and often falling short of expectations. Against this background, the market's expectation of the number of interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year dropped from 0.7 times on May 30th to 0.6 times on July 22nd, and the yen weakened accordingly. In addition, the previous unsuccessful US - Japan trade negotiations and the recent Senate election turmoil have further exacerbated the weakness of the yen [2][3][58]. - After the trade agreement was reached, market expectations of an interest - rate hike have heated up again. However, the lack of inflation stickiness may still be a constraint on the Bank of Japan's significant interest - rate hikes. On July 22nd, the US and Japan reached a trade agreement. After the agreement was reached, the market's expected probability of a Bank of Japan interest - rate hike in October quickly rose from 42.1% to 68.1%. The conclusion of the trade agreement is beneficial for the yen's rebound, but attention should also be paid to the constraint of insufficient inflation stickiness on interest - rate hikes [4][45][58]. - Looking ahead, the exchange - rate trend may need to focus on the changes in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and fiscal expansion. The suspense about Japan's new prime minister may continue until the September presidential election, and political risks may still persist during this period. Whether it is the in - party's demand for fiscal expansion or the possible victory of Takaichi Sanae, it may trigger market concerns about Japan's fiscal expansion, thereby causing a "bond - exchange double - kill" situation [4][50][58]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Exchange Rate Bi - weekly Report: The "Weak" Yen in the Political Vortex? 3.1.1 Anomaly in the Japanese Market Recently? The Divergence between the Trends of Japanese Stocks and the Yen, and the Persistent Weakness of the Yen under a Weak - Dollar Environment - The Nikkei 225 index approached a record high again. From June, it soared 9.2%, and foreign capital accelerated its purchase of Japanese stocks, with a total inflow of $5.11 billion. However, the yen depreciated by 2.4% during the same period. The divergence between stocks and exchange rates in Japan is due to the improvement of stock earnings caused by depreciation. Japan's export - oriented economic structure makes the depreciation beneficial for exports and increases the exchange - gain of overseas revenues. Since 2013, in the yen depreciation cycle, sectors with a higher proportion of overseas revenues in Japanese stocks have seen greater increases [2][16][24]. - Under the background of the US dollar index falling 1.8% since June 2025, most currencies appreciated against the US dollar, such as the Mexican peso, Danish krone, Swiss franc, euro, and Australian dollar, which appreciated 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.5%, 3.5%, and 2.1% respectively. However, the yen depreciated by 2.4% against the US dollar, which is different from the historical situation where the yen was mostly stronger when the US dollar weakened [27]. 3.1.2 What Caused the Weakness of the Yen? The Cooling of Interest - Rate Hike Expectations due to Lower - than - Expected Inflation, and the Impact of Trade Negotiations and Political Turmoil - The lack of inflation stickiness and lower - than - expected inflation led to a cooling of interest - rate hike expectations. Japan's core CPI rebound is mainly driven by imported factors, and the inflation surprise index has been declining since May 30th. The market's expectation of the number of interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year dropped from 0.66 times on May 30th to 0.59 times on July 22nd, causing the yen to weaken [32]. - The previous 8 rounds of US - Japan trade negotiations, with the first 7 being unsuccessful, made the market worry about the impact of high tariffs on the Japanese economy and exacerbated the weakening of the yen. On July 22nd, an agreement was reached: the US will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US [36][38]. - The "political vortex" of the Senate election on July 20th made the market worry about the further "loosening" of Japan's fiscal policy. The ruling coalition lost control of the Senate, and to stabilize power, it may accept the in - party's proposals such as fuel - tax reduction and a small - scale cut in consumption tax, which led to the weakness of the yen and the increase in the term premium of Japanese bonds [39]. 3.1.3 New Focus after the Agreement? Inflation Remains a Constraint on the Bank of Japan's Interest - Rate Hikes, and Attention Should be Paid to the Possible "Bond - Exchange Double - Kill" Caused by Fiscal Expansion - After the US - Japan trade agreement was reached on July 22nd, the market's expected probability of a Bank of Japan interest - rate hike in October rose from 42.1% to 68.1%. The agreement is beneficial for the yen's rebound, but the lack of inflation stickiness may still restrict significant interest - rate hikes [45]. - Looking forward, the exchange - rate trend should focus on the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and fiscal expansion. The new prime - ministerial suspense may last until September, and political risks may continue. The in - party's demand for fiscal expansion or Takaichi Sanae's possible victory may trigger concerns about fiscal expansion and a "bond - exchange double - kill" [50]. - Externally, it should focus on the persistence of the US stagflation trade. Once the market restarts the slowdown trade, the yen is expected to strengthen again. Multiple signs indicate that US inflation may enter an upward phase, which may lead to a temporary rebound of the US dollar and a temporary decline of the yen. Subsequently, the weakening of US unemployment data may be the key for the slowdown trade and the strengthening of the yen [53]. 3.2 Large - scale Assets & Overseas Events & Data: The US - Japan Tariff Agreement was Reached, and Most Developed Markets Rose 3.2.1 Large - scale Assets: Developed Markets Continued to Rise, and Coking Coal Rose Significantly - Most developed - market stock indices rose, such as the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500, which rose 4.1%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively. Most emerging - market stock indices also rose. Most sectors of the US S&P 500 rose, and most sectors in the eurozone rose as well. The Hang Seng Index rose across the board, and most industries increased [59][64][66]. - The yields of 10 - year government bonds in developed countries showed a divergent trend. The yields of Japanese, German, and Italian 10 - year government bonds rose, while those of the UK, US, and French 10 - year government bonds fell. Most 10 - year government bond yields in emerging markets rose [68][72]. - The US dollar index fell 0.8% to 97.67, and most other currencies appreciated against the US dollar. The yuan appreciated against the US dollar. Commodity prices showed mixed trends. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices fell, while coking coal and rebar prices rose. Non - precious metals rose, and precious metals fell [74][82][84]. 3.2.2 The US Reached Three Trade Agreements - Since July 22nd, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The US will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, lower than the previously threatened 25%. Japan promises to invest $550 billion in the US. The US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesia, lower than the previously threatened 25%. The US will lower the tariff on the Philippines from 20% to 19% [90]. 3.2.3 The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan Lost the Election, and the Possibility of Fiscal Expansion Increased - In the 27th Senate election on July 20, 2025, the ruling coalition lost control of the Senate. To stabilize power, it may accept the in - party's proposals such as fuel - tax reduction and a small - scale cut in consumption tax, so the scale of Japan's fiscal stimulus may expand in the second half of the year. After the election results were announced, the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose to around 1.60% [95]. 3.2.4 Federal Reserve: Pay Attention to the July FOMC Meeting Next Week - The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Attention should be paid to the July FOMC meeting next week. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, but also focuses on whether the Fed will send more signals about the September interest - rate cut [99]. 3.2.5 Trump Visited the Federal Reserve and Stated that He Would Not Remove Powell - On July 24, 2025, US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve headquarters. He expressed his hope for an interest - rate cut but said he would not remove Powell because of the renovation project [103]. 3.2.6 PMI: The US Markit Manufacturing PMI Declined - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the market expectation of 52.7, indicating that tariffs still disturbed US industrial production. The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, in line with market expectations [105]. 3.2.7 ECB: The July Meeting Kept Interest Rates Unchanged, in Line with Market Expectations - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July, as the eurozone's inflation reached the target, domestic price pressure eased, and the economic performance met expectations. The ECB has no exchange - rate target but will consider the indirect impact of exchange - rate fluctuations on inflation and the economy [109]. 3.2.8 Unemployment Benefits: The Number of Continuing Unemployment Benefit Claims Basically Met Market Expectations - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial unemployment benefit claims in the US was 217,000, lower than the market expectation of 226,000. As of the week ending July 12, the number of continuing unemployment benefit claims was 1.955 million, slightly lower than the market expectation [112]. 3.3 Global Macroeconomic Calendar: Pay Attention to the Federal Reserve Meeting - The report provides a global macroeconomic data calendar, including important events such as the ECB's interest - rate meeting, China's industrial enterprise profits, the US GDP, and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [116].

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence between the Japanese stock market and the yen, highlighting that while the Nikkei 225 index has approached historical highs, the yen has depreciated significantly [3][9][71] - Since June, the Nikkei 225 has surged by 9.2%, with foreign capital inflows totaling $5.11 billion, while the yen has weakened by 2.4% during the same period [3][9][71] - The article notes that this divergence is not uncommon in Japan, as currency depreciation can improve corporate earnings, particularly for companies with significant overseas revenue [18][71] Group 2 - The article identifies low inflation expectations and a cooling of interest rate hike expectations as key factors contributing to the yen's weakness [32][72] - Japan's core CPI has been influenced more by imported factors, and inflation has consistently fallen short of expectations, leading to a reduction in market expectations for interest rate hikes from 0.7 times to 0.6 times per year [32][72] - The article also mentions that unsuccessful trade negotiations between the US and Japan, along with political turmoil from recent Senate elections, have exacerbated the yen's weakness [4][41][72] Group 3 - Following the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have increased from 42.1% to 68.1% [5][50][51] - However, the article warns that insufficient inflation persistence may still hinder significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [5][50][51] - The focus moving forward will be on the upcoming leadership election within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and potential fiscal expansion, which could lead to concerns about a "debt and currency double whammy" [5][58][80]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in exchange rates and the U.S. government's tariff policies have raised questions about the attractiveness of Hong Kong insurance products, particularly those denominated in U.S. dollars, for mainland Chinese customers [1][2][3]. Exchange Rate Impact - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has led to a significant appreciation of Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar and offshore renminbi, which may influence the appeal of Hong Kong insurance policies [1][3]. - Despite concerns, industry insiders believe that exchange rates are not the primary factor for customers purchasing Hong Kong insurance, as many are focused on long-term investment and asset diversification [1][4]. Insurance Premiums and Sales - The Hong Kong Insurance Authority reported that new insurance premiums from mainland visitors reached HKD 628 billion, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, with a dramatic 27-fold increase in individual life insurance premiums in 2023 compared to the previous year [2][4]. - The recent appreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar effectively reduces the cost of purchasing insurance for mainland residents, potentially boosting sales [4]. Yield and Investment Considerations - The yield on Hong Kong insurance policies consists of guaranteed and expected returns, with guaranteed returns being low (around 0.5%) and expected returns potentially reaching 6.5% to 7% over the long term [6][8]. - Recent increases in U.S. Treasury yields may pressure the nominal returns of dollar-denominated insurance policies, leading to concerns about investment stability and customer willingness to purchase [6][7]. Regulatory Changes - The Hong Kong Insurance Authority plans to implement new guidelines for dividend insurance products, setting a maximum illustrative rate of 6.0% for HKD products and 6.5% for non-HKD products, effective July 2025 [7][8]. - This regulatory change may lead to a decrease in expected yields, prompting customers to consider prepaying premiums to take advantage of current rates before the changes take effect [8]. Market Dynamics - The insurance market is experiencing a surge in sales due to promotional activities and the appeal of multi-currency asset allocation for customers seeking to diversify their investments [4][8]. - The long-term nature of insurance products (10 years or more) means that short-term fluctuations in exchange rates may not significantly impact customer decisions [7].