2025年是申万宏源创业40周年、合并重组10周年，在公司党委和董事会的领导和推动 下，申万宏源将自身发展融入国家战略大局，持续做好金融服务"五篇大文章"；不断完善管理 机制，以扎实的治理筑牢"资本市场看门人"防线；持续优化"研究+投资+投行"业务策略，构建 服务企业客户的全生命周期的金融服务体系；积极拥抱金融科技浪潮，率先应用AI模型，使金 融服务更优质、更高效；探索深化"金融赋能+产业振兴"双轮驱动帮扶模式，有力将专业能力 转化为支持产业发展的实践。公司ESG外部评级实现"四年四连升"，MSCI ESG评级跃升至 A，标普CSA、万得、中证等ESG评级也位居行业前列。 未来，申万宏源将继续与各利益相关方共同努力，将可持续发展与ESG理念深度融入自身 价值框架，积极服务国家战略，持续完善公司治理，践行社会责任，实现提升自身发展质量的 同时助力资本市场持续健康发展，为实体经济高质量发展提供更优质的金融服务。 免责声明 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 11月18日，中国上市公司协会在北京召开中国上市公司可持续发展大会。大会发布了 2025年上市公司可持续发展最佳实践案例评选结果，申万宏源上报的《金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates a downward revision of earnings per share forecasts for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group due to increased R&D investment, with target price adjusted from HKD 12.7 to HKD 9.7, reflecting a potential upside of 31% while maintaining a buy rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, CSPC's revenue decreased by 12.3% year-on-year to CNY 19.89 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 7.1% to CNY 3.51 billion, with Q3 showing a revenue increase of 3.4% to CNY 6.62 billion and net profit growth of 27.2% to CNY 0.964 billion, aligning with expectations [2] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters declined by 4.9 percentage points to 65.6%, with the contribution from the prescription drug segment dropping from 82.3% to 77.7% [2] Group 2: Prescription Drug Segment - The sales of the prescription drug segment for the first three quarters fell by 17.3% to CNY 15.45 billion, including licensing revenue of CNY 1.54 billion, while Q3 sales rebounded to CNY 5.20 billion, marking a 1.6% year-on-year increase and a 9.6% quarter-on-quarter increase [3] - The sales of oncology products in the first three quarters plummeted by 56.8% to CNY 1.65 billion, accounting for 10.7% of the prescription drug segment's revenue, down from 20.4% in the previous year [3] - The raw material drug business saw a 22.3% year-on-year increase in vitamin C raw material revenue to CNY 1.79 billion, while antibiotic raw material revenue slightly decreased by 3.7% [3] Group 3: R&D and Pipeline - CSPC's R&D expenses increased by 7.9% year-on-year to CNY 4.19 billion, with the R&D expense ratio rising by 3.9 percentage points to 21.0% [5] - The company has 28 key pipelines in II/III phase clinical trials, nine products in phase II, and approximately 40 products in phase I, covering both oncology and non-oncology areas [5] - The SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) has received fast track designation from the FDA and breakthrough therapy designation from NMPA, with multiple clinical trials ongoing and data readouts expected in 2026 [4]

Market Overview - On November 24, the securities sector rose by 0.22% compared to the previous trading day, with Guolian Minsheng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Top Gainers - Guolian Minsheng (601456) closed at 10.40, up 2.87% with a trading volume of 297,600 shares and a turnover of 304 million yuan [1] - Guosheng Securities (002670) closed at 17.86, up 2.76% with a trading volume of 444,300 shares and a turnover of 788 million yuan [1] - Industrial Securities (601377) closed at 6.69, up 2.14% with a trading volume of 941,000 shares and a turnover of 625 million yuan [1] Top Losers - Shouchao Securities (601136) closed at 20.20, down 2.27% with a trading volume of 375,700 shares and a turnover of 757 million yuan [2] - Changjiang Securities (000783) closed at 7.92, down 1.12% with a trading volume of 849,100 shares and a turnover of 679 million yuan [2] - Sihai Securities (600369) closed at 4.40, down 0.90% with a trading volume of 642,200 shares and a turnover of 284 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The securities sector experienced a net outflow of 1.283 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 914 million yuan [2] - Among individual stocks, Guosheng Securities had a net inflow of 48.03 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 22.88 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Dongfang Securities recorded a net inflow of 31.53 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 10.96 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992) due to better-than-expected performance, with revenue and adjusted net profit growing by 14.58% and 25.18% year-on-year respectively, driven by accelerated penetration of AIPC and strong AI server business [1] Performance Overview - For FY25/26 Q2, the company reported revenue of $20.452 billion, up 14.58% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of $512 million, up 25.18% year-on-year, with net profit significantly exceeding expectations [1] IDG Smart Device Business Group - The PC business performed well, with the IDG segment achieving revenue of $15.107 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.79%. PC revenue was approximately $11.1 billion, growing 17.58% year-on-year, surpassing IDC's reported global PC shipment growth of 10.32% for Q3 [2] - AIPC's global shipment accounted for 33% of total PC shipments, with a 30% share in the domestic market for notebooks, reflecting a 3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [2] ISG Infrastructure Solutions - The ISG segment reported revenue of $4.087 billion for FY25/26 Q2, a year-on-year increase of 23.65%. AI servers showed double-digit growth, with strong order reserves, and revenue from liquid cooling technology surged by 154% year-on-year [3] Gross Margin and Supply Chain Management - The gross margin for FY25/26 Q2 was 15.39%, up 0.66 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective progress in the AI server business transformation. The company has a robust supply chain and has developed comprehensive strategies to address component price increases [4] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting revenues of $79.49 billion, $91.55 billion, and $105.24 billion for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with net profits of $1.67 billion, $2.03 billion, and $2.43 billion respectively, supported by its leading position in the PC market and strong growth in AI servers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992), highlighting that the company's performance exceeded expectations with revenue and adjusted net profit growing by 14.58% and 25.18% year-on-year, respectively. The growth is primarily driven by the accelerated penetration of AIPC and strong performance in the AI server business, with expectations for continued high demand in the AI trend [1]. Performance Overview - Lenovo's FY25/26Q2 financial report showed revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.58%, and an adjusted net profit of $512 million, up 25.18% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit is emphasized due to significant impacts from the fair value changes of warrants [1]. IDG Smart Device Business Group - The PC business performed well, with the IDG segment achieving revenue of $15.107 billion in FY25/26Q2, a year-on-year increase of 11.79%. PC revenue was approximately $11.1 billion, reflecting a 17.58% increase, significantly outpacing the IDC's reported global PC shipment growth of 10.32% for Q3 [2]. AIPC Penetration - AIPC's global shipment accounted for 33% of total PC shipments, with a 30% share in the domestic market for notebooks, marking a 3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, indicating accelerated market penetration [2]. ISG Infrastructure Solutions - The ISG segment reported revenue of $4.087 billion in FY25/26Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 23.65%. AI servers experienced double-digit growth, and the order backlog is strong. Revenue from the Neptune liquid cooling technology surged by 154%, indicating ongoing transformation in the AI server business [3]. Gross Margin and Supply Chain Management - The gross margin for FY25/26Q2 was 15.39%, reflecting a 0.66 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter, validating the positive progress in the AI server business transformation. The company has a robust supply chain and has developed comprehensive strategies to address price increases in components [4]. Profit Forecast - Shenwan Hongyuan maintains its previous profit forecasts, expecting revenues of $79.49 billion, $91.55 billion, and $105.24 billion for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with net profits of $1.67 billion, $2.03 billion, and $2.43 billion, respectively. This outlook is based on Lenovo's leading position in the PC market and the ongoing advancement of AIPC products, alongside strong growth in AI servers driven by the AI trend [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial sector is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the securities industry is entering a new phase of mergers and acquisitions, termed "M&A 2.0," which emphasizes functional enhancement and the creation of a complementary business ecosystem rather than merely increasing capital size [3][5]. - The report highlights that recent mergers, such as the absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by CICC, reflect a shift towards strengthening professional capabilities and expanding business lines [4][18]. - The overall improvement in the securities industry's fundamentals, including active market trading and growth in margin financing, is expected to drive both valuations and profitability for brokerages [4][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant wave of mergers and restructuring in China's securities industry, driven by both policy support and market competition. The aim is to cultivate leading investment banks and enhance core competitiveness through consolidation [6][10]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 43 listed brokerages achieved revenue of CNY 421.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.57%, and a net profit of CNY 169.29 billion, up 62.48% [6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is highlighted as a scale-driven consolidation, significantly enhancing net capital strength and risk tolerance, while optimizing the national network layout [15][17]. - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities is characterized as a functional superiority-driven integration, aimed at enhancing business capabilities and expanding service offerings [18][20]. Business Structure and Performance - The report outlines a dual-driven characteristic in the securities industry, with brokerage and proprietary trading as the main revenue drivers. In the first three quarters of 2025, brokerage income reached CNY 111.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 74.64% [11]. - The revenue structure is shifting, with brokerage income accounting for 26.5%, investment income 44.4%, and other segments contributing to the overall performance [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent mergers are likely to stimulate investment enthusiasm in the industry. It recommends focusing on leading brokerages with comprehensive performance layouts and those with high elasticity in earnings, such as Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities [22].

杨成长系全国政协委员、申万宏源研究首席经济学家；龚芳系申万宏源研究政策研究室主任、首席研究员； 方思元系申万宏源研究资深高级研 究员 | 聚焦"十五五"战略目标 | | | --- | --- | | 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出， | | | 要"构建统一、开放、竞争、有序的市场体系，建设法治经济、信用经济"，这 | | | 标志着信用市场在市场经济体制机制改革及全国统一大市场建设中的重要性进 | | | 一步提升 | | | 加快健全信用体系和信用市场建设不仅是提升市场运行效率、优化营商环境的 | | | 现实需要，更是实现"十五五"规划战略目标的重要保障。近年来，受益于推进 | 全国统一大市场建设及数字经济的快速发展，我国已具备建设统一信用市场的 | | 良好基础 | | | "十五五"时期，应依托全国统一大市场建设，加快推进全国信用市场一体化进 | | | 程：一要从理念上重视全国统一信用市场的建设；二要加快构建高标准信用基 | | | 础设施体系；三要全面提升中介机构的信用评估定价能力；四要提升市场经营 | | | 主体的信用经营能力 | | | 近年来，我国高度 ...

格隆汇11月24日｜申万宏源策略发文，"怀疑牛市级别"的调整正在发生，但这个阶段更要坚定牛市认 知。调整到位(核心赛道牛熊分界线附近)就是一个大级别的底部，可以等待"牛市2.0"。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ "牛市两段论"是A股牛市周期的典型特征。牛市1.0阶段(2013、2017和2025)，机构投资者风格切换基本 完成+赚钱效应累积产生质变+产业趋势资产性价比不足。牛市1.0到2.0的过渡期(2014年2-10月、2018 年，本轮可能是2026上半年)，等待全面牛市条件累积+产业趋势调整后磨底，消化性价比问题。牛市 2.0全面牛(2015、2021，本轮可能是2026下半年)，核心是基本面周期性改善/产业趋势新阶段 + 居民资 产配置向权益迁移。 展望2026年行业风格节奏，牛市1.0到2.0的过渡阶段，高股息防御可能占优；牛市2.0阶段经济体感改善 (实际改善)将催化顺周期引领指数突破，最终科技产业趋势和制造业全球影响力提升才是牛市主线。 当前，AI产业链"产业趋势大波段没结束+中小波段有波折+长期低性价比区域"，这神似2014年初的创 业板、2018年初的食品饮料、2021年初的新能源 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【申万宏源：12月暂停降息概率更高，鲍威尔表态成关键】11月23日，申万宏源研究指出，12月暂停降 息概率较大，最大不确定性在于鲍威尔如何塑造"共识"。10月美联储例会上，鲍威尔称内部对未来降息 分歧大。近期公布的10月会议纪要显示，"许多"参会者支持维持利率不变，仅"几个"认为应继续降息。 近期有投票权的FOMC成员表态，支持与不支持降息人数比约4:5，后者略占上风。库克、杰斐逊、鲍 威尔未对12月降息明确表态，9月点阵图支持年内降息3次，其政策倾向成关键"选票"。 鲍威尔在美联 储内部建立、引导"共识"至关重要，但自10月会议以来，他尚未表态。 ...

Market Overview - The recent global market downturn, driven by heightened risk aversion, has led to a significant adjustment in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points [2][3] - Key sectors such as new energy, photovoltaic, and power equipment have experienced notable pullbacks, while banking, shipbuilding, and consumer sectors have shown relative resilience [2] External Influences - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to external factors, including concerns over the "AI bubble," a retreat in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a cautious shift in market sentiment [3][4] - The volatility in global risk assets has been exacerbated by year-end fund settlement periods, prompting some investors to lock in profits and rankings through selling [3] Fundamental Support - Despite recent market fluctuations, the fundamental factors supporting the current rally in the Chinese stock market remain intact, including steady macroeconomic recovery, improved competitiveness of key industries, and enhanced capital market positioning [4][5] - The adjustment is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with expectations for a potential recovery as market sentiment stabilizes [4] Investment Opportunities - The current market adjustment presents a strategic opportunity for investors to reposition their portfolios ahead of the anticipated spring market rally in 2026 [6] - There is a consensus among institutions that the internal certainties of the Chinese market, such as new growth momentum and clear policy direction, will not be adversely affected by external disturbances [5][6] - Following the adjustment, sectors such as banking and insurance, along with consumer stocks with stable fundamentals, may present rotation opportunities before the technology sector regains momentum [6]