Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Mean-Variance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model determines the optimal portfolio by balancing expected returns and risks, based on the mean and variance of asset returns[8] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the portfolio return as a random variable 2. Use the expected return ($E[R]$) and variance ($Var[R]$) to measure the portfolio's performance 3. Solve the optimization problem to maximize expected return for a given level of risk or minimize risk for a given level of return - Formula: $ \text{Minimize: } \sigma_p^2 = \sum_{i=1}^n \sum_{j=1}^n w_i w_j \sigma_{ij} $ $ \text{Subject to: } \sum_{i=1}^n w_i = 1 $ Where $w_i$ is the weight of asset $i$, $\sigma_{ij}$ is the covariance between assets $i$ and $j$[8] - **Model Evaluation**: Flexible in adjusting portfolios based on expected returns and risks, but struggles to incorporate new market dynamics and subjective views[8] 2. Model Name: Black-Litterman Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines the Bayesian framework with the mean-variance model to incorporate subjective views into the portfolio optimization process[8] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Start with a prior distribution of expected returns based on market equilibrium 2. Incorporate subjective views as additional constraints 3. Use the Bayesian approach to update the prior distribution with subjective views to form a posterior distribution - Formula: $ \Pi = \tau \Sigma w_{mkt} $ $ E[R] = \left( \tau \Sigma^{-1} + P^T \Omega^{-1} P \right)^{-1} \left( \tau \Sigma^{-1} \Pi + P^T \Omega^{-1} Q \right) $ Where $\Pi$ is the implied equilibrium return, $\tau$ is a scaling factor, $\Sigma$ is the covariance matrix, $w_{mkt}$ is the market portfolio weights, $P$ is the view matrix, $\Omega$ is the uncertainty matrix, and $Q$ is the view vector[8] - **Model Evaluation**: Flexible and allows integration of subjective views, but requires strong assumptions about return distributions and is computationally complex[8] 3. Model Name: Risk Parity Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on balancing the risk contribution of each asset in the portfolio rather than their weights[7] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the risk contribution of each asset: $RC_i = w_i \cdot \sigma_i \cdot \rho_{i,p}$ 2. Adjust weights to equalize the risk contributions across all assets - Formula: $ RC_i = w_i \cdot \sigma_i \cdot \rho_{i,p} $ Where $RC_i$ is the risk contribution of asset $i$, $w_i$ is the weight of asset $i$, $\sigma_i$ is the standard deviation of asset $i$, and $\rho_{i,p}$ is the correlation between asset $i$ and the portfolio[7] - **Model Evaluation**: Enhances risk control and can incorporate multiple risk dimensions, but lacks a mechanism to optimize returns and may struggle with unrecognized risks[7] 4. Model Name: All-Weather Model (Bridgewater) - **Model Construction Idea**: Aims to achieve stable performance across all economic environments by focusing on risk parity under growth and inflation sensitivity[11] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Classify assets based on their sensitivity to growth and inflation 2. Allocate weights to achieve risk parity across these dimensions - Formula: Not explicitly provided, but the model emphasizes balancing risk rather than returns[11] - **Model Evaluation**: Stable allocation structure with a focus on low-risk assets, but may underperform in specific market conditions due to its heavy reliance on bonds and cash[15] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Mean-Variance Model - **Maximum Drawdown**: Exceeded 4% in some periods (e.g., 2018-2019), but quickly recovered[57] - **Sharpe Ratio**: Higher than benchmarks in optimistic scenarios, demonstrating strong risk-adjusted returns[57] 2. Black-Litterman Model - **Maximum Drawdown**: Similar to the mean-variance model, with better adaptability to subjective views[57] - **Sharpe Ratio**: Improved compared to the mean-variance model due to the integration of subjective views[57] 3. Risk Parity Model - **Maximum Drawdown**: Generally lower than the mean-variance model, reflecting its focus on risk control[57] - **Sharpe Ratio**: Moderate, as the model does not explicitly optimize returns[57] 4. All-Weather Model - **Maximum Drawdown**: Comparable to fixed-ratio models, with a focus on stability[15] - **Sharpe Ratio**: Similar to benchmarks, reflecting its conservative allocation[15] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Monthly Frequency Slicing - **Factor Construction Idea**: Use historical slices of monthly data to reflect maximum drawdown and market sentiment[41] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Extract rolling 20-day returns for each year 2. Use the bottom 20% quantile to estimate pessimistic scenarios and maximum drawdown - Formula: $ \text{Max Drawdown} = \text{Min} \left( \frac{P_t - P_{peak}}{P_{peak}} \right) $ Where $P_t$ is the price at time $t$, and $P_{peak}$ is the peak price[41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in capturing extreme market conditions, but limited in predicting long-term trends[41] 2. Factor Name: BootStrap State Space - **Factor Construction Idea**: Use BootStrap sampling to create a state space of asset returns under different scenarios[45] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Sample historical data with replacement to create new sequences 2. Calculate return distributions for pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios - Formula: $ F = B - \alpha \cdot C $ Where $F$ is the objective function, $B$ is the expected return under risk constraints, $C$ is the penalty for exceeding risk constraints, and $\alpha$ is the penalty parameter[50] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a robust framework for scenario analysis, but computationally intensive[45] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Monthly Frequency Slicing - **Maximum Drawdown**: Successfully captured extreme drawdowns in historical data, with 90% coverage for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks[40] - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly provided, but the factor is more focused on risk control[40] 2. BootStrap State Space - **Maximum Drawdown**: Achieved a 4% maximum drawdown target in most scenarios, with only minor deviations in extreme conditions[57] - **Sharpe Ratio**: Optimized under different scenarios, with higher ratios in optimistic environments[57]

Core Viewpoint - The 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be a critical phase for comprehensive deepening of reforms, with 2026 marking the beginning of accelerated reforms since the 20th Central Committee's third plenary session [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Continuous deepening of domestic demand expansion policies will lead to improvements in corporate profitability during the nominal GDP recovery process [1] - Service demand within consumption is more elastic, making investment growth likely to show a "front low, back high" trend [1] Group 2: Reform Opportunities - The acceleration of reform processes is creating significant opportunities, with short-term domestic demand policies expected to strengthen under a long-term reform framework [1] - The breadth, depth, and intensity of the "dividend" from the era are closely related to the ongoing reforms [1] Group 3: Focus Areas for 2026 - Key areas to focus on in 2026 include the construction of a unified national market, development of new productive forces, reforms related to social welfare, financial and tax system reforms, and accelerating green transformation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a cyclical peak in spring 2026, with a comprehensive market rally potentially triggered by the sequential emergence of "policy bottom, market bottom, and economic bottom" around mid-2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - By mid-2026, the supply in midstream manufacturing may clear, leading to a noticeable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The upcoming market rally will be supported by improvements in the fundamental cycle, strengthening trends in emerging industries, shifts in resident asset allocation towards equities, and the enhancement of China's global influence [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Before spring 2026, technology growth stocks may experience minor rebounds; from spring to mid-year, high-dividend defensive stocks are expected to outperform [1] - After mid-2026, a "cyclical foundation with growth leading" approach is anticipated, with the "policy bottom" catalyzing cyclical sectors to lead index breakthroughs, while the trends in technology industries and the enhancement of manufacturing global influence will be the main market themes [1] Group 3: Key Investment Themes - Three major structural themes to focus on in 2026 include: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI supply chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to the enhancement of manufacturing influence, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2]

刘健指出，近年来，中央政治局会议多次强调要活跃资本市场，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功 能。随着我国直接融资规模持续扩容，直接融资占比已超过30%，我国股票市场市值规模突破100万亿 元，证券化率提升至近80%的水平，沪深交易所新增融资规模持续居于全球交易所前列。 "在大力发展直接融资导向下，未来资本市场有望进一步提质扩容。同时，资本市场基础制度的改革将 显著提升市场包容性、适应性。从上市公司市值结构看，近年来A股市场吸纳优质资产的能力明显提 升。"刘健进一步指出。（智通财经记者 田忠方） 11月18日，申万宏源党委书记、董事长刘健表示，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，中国经济和资本市场 都将进入高质量发展的新阶段。其中，资本市场作为资源配置的重要市场，在金融体系中的地位和作用 将进一步提升。 刘健是在申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会上作出的上述表述。 ...

申万宏源 2025年第二期次级债券11月19日起在深交所上市，其中品种一代码"524526"，简称"25申证 C3"，发行总额18亿元，票面利率2%，期限3年；品种二代码"524527"，简称"25申证C4"，发行总额7亿 元，票面利率2.15%，期限5年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan has launched the "Shenxiang Custody Operation Service Platform," marking a significant upgrade in its custody operation business and setting a new benchmark for digital and intelligent transformation in the fund custody industry [1] Group 1: Platform Launch - The "Shenxiang Custody Operation Service Platform" is the first co-developed custody operation service platform in the industry [1] - The platform signifies a comprehensive upgrade of Shenwan Hongyuan's custody operation business system [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The platform is driven by the core idea of "capability accumulation - intelligent driving - experience reconstruction" [1] - It achieves full-chain autonomy and intelligent collaboration from underlying architecture to user interface [1] - The platform is fully compatible with domestic chips, operating systems, databases, and middleware, enhancing technical security [1] Group 3: Long-term Development - The platform supports the long-term safe and sustainable development of the business through system self-evolution and service experience enhancement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and data as new driving forces for economic growth, suggesting a shift in investment strategies towards new sectors and opportunities [3][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan, highlighted that the "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes technological innovation, which will lead to breakthroughs in industries such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and hydrogen energy [6]. - The conference suggests that the future growth of the Chinese economy will rely on new factors of production rather than traditional drivers, opening new spaces for capital market investments [7]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The research team at Shenwan Hongyuan proposed a "two-stage bull market" outlook, predicting that the first stage, driven by technological structure, will peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market in the second half of 2026 [7][8]. - The team anticipates significant improvements in A-share profitability in 2026, marking the first time in five years that both non-profitability and net profit growth will show double-digit increases [8]. Group 3: Macroeconomic and Bond Market Insights - Chief Economist Zhao Wei noted that the reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" will focus on systemic effectiveness, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for comprehensive reform and development [9]. - The bond market is entering a new phase where the core variables will shift towards price and capital flow, with a particular focus on inflation throughout 2026 [9].

Core Insights - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the theme "Ride the Momentum," covering various sectors including asset allocation, high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, consumption, and cyclical industries [2][3] Group 1: Economic and Technological Insights - Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan, highlighted the importance of technological innovation in the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on original innovation and breakthroughs in future industries such as AI, biomedicine, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication [5][6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies data elements as a new driving force for economic growth, with digital content services and emotional consumption leading new consumption patterns [5][6] - Liu Jian predicts that future economic growth in China will shift from old momentum to new factor-driven momentum, creating new investment opportunities in the capital market [6] Group 2: Market Strategy and Outlook - The research team at Shenwan Hongyuan proposes a "Two-Stage Bull Market" theory, suggesting that the technology-driven bull market will reach a peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market in the second half of 2026 [8] - The team believes that the shift of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equity assets is still in its early stages, indicating that the A-share market's profit accumulation is undergoing a qualitative change [8] - Predictions for 2026 include significant improvements in A-share profitability, with expectations of the first effective rebound in non-profitability and double-digit growth in net profit for the first time in five years [8] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Bond Market Analysis - Chief Economist Zhao Wei notes that the reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize systemic and effective governance, marking 2026 as a year of comprehensive reform and development [10] - The bond market is transitioning to a new phase where "prices + capital flows" are gaining attention, with the core variable for 2026 being inflation, which will impact the market throughout the year [10]

Market Overview - On November 18, the A-share market continued to adjust at high levels, with the lithium battery sector experiencing a significant pullback, while real estate and coal sectors also saw notable declines, dragging down the three major stock indices [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 3.22% to close at 48,702.98 points, and the South Korean composite index dropped by 3.32% to 3,953.62 points [2] - Domestic commodity futures showed a mixed performance, with coking coal and coke contracts leading the declines [2] - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2512) rising by 0.06% to 116.530 yuan [2] Sector Performance - The AI application sector showed resilience, performing well against the market trend, while media and semiconductor ETFs led the market gains, with several ETFs rising over 2% [2] - Conversely, the Huatai-PB ETF and other related ETFs fell by over 4% [2] Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist, Liu Jinjun, suggested that adjusting investment portfolios based on overall policy trends could yield excess returns [4] - Shenwan Hongyuan's chief analyst, Fu Jingtai, presented a two-phase bullish outlook for A-shares, predicting a peak in early 2026 followed by a comprehensive market rally in the second half of 2026 [4] - UBS's head of China equity strategy, Wang Zonghao, forecasted a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable factors continuing into 2025 [4] Lithium Market Analysis - Recent reports indicated that the lithium carbonate main contract (LC2601) reached a limit-up price of 95,200 yuan/ton on November 17, driven by supply constraints and low inventory levels [5] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook for lithium prices in November, although caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking after price surges [5] - The energy research team at New Lake Futures highlighted that the demand for energy storage will continue to increase within the lithium consumption structure, emphasizing the need to monitor the impact of rising lithium prices on storage demand growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates a significant trend of long-term capital, represented by insurance funds, increasingly allocating to the banking sector, with a potential inflow space of approximately 600 billion yuan if 40% of new funds are allocated to bank stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Inflow and Allocation - The unprecedented low interest rate environment is driving incremental capital towards dividend sectors, with the banking sector offering superior value. The current banking index dividend yield is about 4.3%, significantly higher than the ten-year government bond yield, making it an attractive investment option [1]. - Assuming that 40% of the new capital is allocated to OCI and 40% to bank stocks, this could lead to a potential inflow of around 600 billion yuan. Additionally, public fund reforms are expected to increase capital allocation to underrepresented sectors, with bank stock holdings in public funds dropping to a near ten-year low of 1.74% in Q3 2025, suggesting an additional potential inflow of over 370 billion yuan if allocations align with the CSI 300 [2]. Group 2: Expected Changes in Banking Fundamentals - The central bank has explicitly stated its support for stabilizing net interest margins, linking this to the expansion of monetary policy's counter-cyclical adjustment space. It is anticipated that by 2026, bank interest margins may reverse their downward trend and show a slight year-on-year increase, with banks that can improve deposit costs expected to perform better than their peers [3]. - The importance of "high provisioning" is becoming more pronounced as banks' provisioning capacity is gradually consumed. While systemic risks from real estate and platforms may ease, risks in retail sectors still require provisioning. Focus should be on banks with low non-performing loans and high loan-to-deposit ratios, as well as those with clear asset quality improvements [3]. - Some small and medium-sized banks may face revenue growth challenges due to high base pressures in their capital market operations, with reduced non-interest income growth and declining financial investment yields [3]. Group 3: Capital Focus and Investment Recommendations - Bank capital is becoming a focal point, with banks that have strong internal capital generation or substantial reserves being better positioned for stable lending and dividends. External financing remains challenging, making convertible bonds a scarce resource [4]. - The banking sector is entering a new cycle of stable profitability, with long-term capital inflows ongoing. If the macro environment sees a gradual recovery in PPI and marginal increases in long-term interest rates, this will create favorable operating conditions for banks. Even under economic pressure, banks with clear risk thresholds and stable dividend expectations remain attractive dividend assets [5]. - The report recommends focusing on a dual strategy of "leading banks (state-owned and China Merchants Bank) as the foundation" and "bottom-tier joint-stock banks and quality city commercial banks as the performers." Leading banks are expected to see valuation recovery, while quality small and medium-sized banks with improving fundamentals are likely to exhibit stock price elasticity in response to economic recovery [5].