编者按 日前，党的二十届四中全会审议通过"十五五"规划建议，明确提出"优化金融机构体系，推动各类金融 机构专注主业、完善治理、错位发展"，这为包括证券公司在内的金融机构实现高质量发展指明了方 向。近年来证券公司在持续强化经营数据等"硬指标"的同时，纷纷发力文化建设并积极承担社会责任， 不断夯实"软实力"，实现经营效益和社会效益双丰收。 为学习宣传贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，中国证券报联合中国证券业协会推出"夯实文化软实力 积极 履责显担当"系列专题报道，旨在通过分享证券公司在加强文化建设以及服务经济、社会、环境和谐发 展方面的典型案例与先进经验，体现证券公司近年来在培育中国特色金融文化、践行行业文化理念、履 行社会责任的积极成效，共同推动证券行业高质量发展。本篇为系列报道第二篇。 2025年2月，证监会发布的《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》提出，积极发挥资本市 场功能，着力做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融"五篇大文章"。申万宏源 （000166）党委书记、董事长刘健在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，近年来，证券行业切实履行直接 融资"服务商"、资本市场"看门人"、社会财富"管 ...

11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会。申万宏源认为，2026年将是改革与发展全 面发力的一年，2026年年中A股行情可能全面启动，科技产业趋势和我国制造业全球影响力提升将是市 场主线。 与会人士认为，2026年是"十五五"开启之年，中国经济和资本市场都将进入高质量发展的新阶段。 正成为经济增长的新动力 申万宏源党委书记、董事长刘健在致辞中表示，过去依靠投资和出口为双引擎，我国经济实现快速 赶超和发展。党的十八大以来，我国经济发展进入新常态，在科创驱动下，以知识、技术、数据、算 力、人才等为代表的新要素和新资产正成为推动我国经济增长的新动力。"未来中国经济的增长不再是 旧动能的延伸，而是新要素动能的拓展，这将为资本市场投资打开全新空间。" 在申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟看来，"十五五"时期或将是全面深化改革的攻坚突破期，2026年 或将是党的二十届三中全会以来改革全面加速的开始。随着扩内需政策持续深化，2026年名义GDP修复 过程中将带动企业盈利改善；消费需求中服务需求弹性更大，投资增速更容易"前低后高"。 从资本市场发展的角度来看，刘健认为，"十五五"规划强调坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合 ...

11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会。申万宏源认为，2026年将是改革与发展全面发 力的一年，2026年年中A股行情可能全面启动，科技产业趋势和我国制造业全球影响力提升将是市场主 线。（中证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for reform and development in China's economy and capital markets, with a potential full-scale rally in A-shares expected by mid-2026, driven by trends in the technology industry and the enhancement of China's manufacturing global influence [1][5]. Economic Growth Drivers - New factors and assets are emerging as new drivers of economic growth, moving away from traditional reliance on investment and exports. The focus is shifting towards knowledge, technology, data, computing power, and talent as key growth enablers [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, emphasizing the importance of effective markets and proactive government [2][3]. Reform and Investment Opportunities - The upcoming reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are expected to be systematic and effective, with a focus on enhancing macroeconomic governance and promoting self-reliance in technology [3][4]. - Key areas for potential investment include the construction of a unified market, development of new productive forces, reforms in social welfare, financial and tax systems, and acceleration of green transformation [4]. A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is projected to experience a significant rally starting in mid-2026, supported by improvements in the fundamental economic cycle, strengthening trends in emerging industries, and a shift in household asset allocation towards equities [5][6]. - The market is expected to transition through different phases, with technology growth stocks likely to see short-term rebounds before a broader market rally led by cyclical sectors and the technology industry [6]. Investment Themes for 2026 - Three major investment themes are highlighted for 2026: 1. Recovery trades in cyclical sectors such as basic chemicals and industrial metals 2. Technology sectors including AI, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Manufacturing sectors that enhance China's global influence, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [6].

2025年2月，证监会发布的《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》提出，积极发挥资本市 场功能，着力做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融"五篇大文章"。申万宏源 （000166）党委书记、董事长刘健在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，近年来，证券行业切实履行直接 融资"服务商"、资本市场"看门人"、社会财富"管理者"的职责，积极响应党中央重大决策部署，通过业 务转型与综合金融服务升级，逐步构建起服务实体经济的立体化网络，成为做好金融"五篇大文章"的重 要力量。 ● 本报记者 徐昭 林倩 刘健表示，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济和资本市场都将进入高质量发展的新阶段。申万宏源 作为国有金融企业，积极响应政策号召，将服务国家战略与自身发展相结合，继续在推动金融"五篇大 文章"落地、助力实体经济高质量发展中主动担当、积极作为，助力金融强国建设。 夯实发展基石 为高质量发展注入内生动力 一直以来，申万宏源始终夯实"治理、人才、文化"三大发展基石，将社会责任融入公司核心价值框架， 为高质量发展注入内生动力。 据刘健介绍，多年来申万宏源在甘肃省、新疆维吾尔自治区、内蒙古自治区、贵州省等地开展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the importance of capital markets in supporting five key financial areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, with Shenyuan Hongyuan playing a crucial role in these initiatives [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Governance - Shenyuan Hongyuan has established a comprehensive network to serve the real economy, aligning its operations with national strategies and contributing to high-quality economic development [1][2] - The company focuses on governance, talent, and culture as foundational elements for sustainable development, integrating social responsibility into its core values [2] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, Shenyuan Hongyuan has emphasized compliance and risk management, enhancing its governance framework to ensure robust operational standards [2] Group 2: Talent and Cultural Development - The company prioritizes talent development as a key resource for high-quality growth, implementing flexible mechanisms for talent promotion and fostering an innovative workforce [3] - Shenyuan Hongyuan is launching a cultural renewal initiative in 2025 to celebrate its 40th anniversary, aiming to strengthen its corporate culture and align it with national strategies [3] Group 3: Innovation and Service to New Quality Productivity - The company is committed to supporting innovative enterprises, particularly those classified as "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative," by enhancing its financial services across their lifecycle [4] - Shenyuan Hongyuan has successfully facilitated the listing of several high-tech companies and has significantly increased its bond underwriting scale [5] Group 4: Professional Capabilities and Market Position - The company has developed a value management system to enhance the performance of listed companies, utilizing a unique evaluation model to drive value creation [5] - Shenyuan Hongyuan is expanding its institutional service capabilities, integrating various financial products and services to better serve its clients [6] Group 5: International Business and Cross-Border Services - The company is enhancing its international business operations, focusing on cross-border financing and investment needs, and has achieved significant growth in its cross-border derivatives business [6] - Shenyuan Hongyuan ranks among the top domestic securities firms in terms of IPO underwriting and bond distribution, reflecting its strong market position [6] Group 6: Commitment to National Strategy - The company is dedicated to advancing the financial sector's high-quality development and supporting the national strategy through professional services and value creation [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the conference is that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, driven by the "three new" concepts: new factor systems, new institutional frameworks, and new service systems [1] - The chief economist predicts that 2025 will be a year of recovering confidence, while 2026 will see comprehensive reforms and development, leading to atypical economic recovery and improved profitability [1] - The concept of "seeking dividends from reform" encompasses three meanings: accelerated reform progress presenting significant opportunities, short-term policies to boost domestic demand continuing under a long-term reform framework, and the breadth, depth, and strength of the "dividends" being closely tied to reforms [1] Group 2 - The "two-phase theory of rising markets" suggests that the technology-driven market in 2025 will represent "Phase 1.0," potentially peaking in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive market phase "Phase 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [2] - The "Phase 1.0" is expected to reach its peak in spring 2026, with the AI industry still showing growth potential, although A-share AI stocks are currently in a long-term low-value area [2] - In "Phase 2.0," it is anticipated that midstream manufacturing supply will clear, with capacity growth rates falling below demand growth, leading to improved stock selection success rates [2] Group 3 - The industry outlook indicates that the "Phase 1.0" is at a high level, with one more opportunity for technology growth before spring 2026, while the transition to "Phase 2.0" will favor high-dividend defensive stocks [3] - The "Phase 2.0" will see cyclical stocks leading index breakthroughs, with technology industry trends and the global influence of manufacturing becoming the main themes [3] - Three structural clues to watch include recovery trades (basic chemicals, industrial metals), technology industry trends (AI industry chain, humanoid robots), and the enhancement of manufacturing influence (chemicals, engineering machinery) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The framework of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to return to effectiveness, potentially triggering a "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [2][4] Group 1: Market Outlook - The anticipated bull market may start in the second half of 2026, with a focus on the transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" [2][4] - The "policy bottom" is likely to be validated around mid-2026, which could catalyze the start of the new bull market [4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current phase of the bull market is characterized by a significant shift in asset allocation towards equities, indicating that the bull market is far from over [3] - The A-share market is expected to see a qualitative change in profit accumulation, leading to improved conditions for incremental capital inflow over time [3] Group 3: Sector Focus - The technology sector is projected to be a key driver in the upcoming bull market, with a focus on areas such as humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry [5] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will favor high-dividend defensive stocks initially, followed by cyclical stocks and growth sectors [5] Group 4: Profit Forecast - A-share net profit growth is expected to show significant improvement, with forecasts of 7% and 14% year-on-year growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]

Group 1 - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Annual Conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan focused on exploring investment opportunities and market trends across various sectors, including asset allocation, high-end manufacturing, and artificial intelligence [1] - The conference featured a main forum and 12 sub-forums, bringing together government officials, experts, corporate executives, and investors to discuss economic dynamics and investment strategies for the upcoming year [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan's Chief Economist Zhao Wei highlighted that 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing systemic and effective reforms, with a focus on enhancing macroeconomic governance and technological self-reliance [2] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to play a crucial role in seizing opportunities in the AI industry and empowering various sectors [2][3] - Key areas for investment opportunities in A-shares include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the increasing influence of manufacturing [3] Group 3 - Shenwan Hongyuan aims to align its services with national strategies, focusing on building a comprehensive financial service system that integrates research, investment, and investment banking to support the transformation of the real economy [4] - The company is committed to enhancing its professional service capabilities to contribute to the healthy development of the capital market and the high-quality growth of China's financial system [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that 2026 will be a year of comprehensive reform and development, with a potential full-scale launch of the A-share market by mid-2026, driven by trends in the technology industry and the enhancement of manufacturing global influence [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and New Drivers - New factors and assets are becoming the new drivers of economic growth, with knowledge, technology, data, computing power, and talent leading the way [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be a critical phase for comprehensive reform, with 2026 marking the acceleration of these reforms [2][3]. - The nominal GDP recovery in 2026 is anticipated to improve corporate profitability, with service demand showing greater elasticity [2]. Group 2: Reform and Opportunities - The focus for 2026 will be on leveraging reforms for dividends, emphasizing systemic and effective reforms, particularly in the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives [3]. - Key areas for reform include the construction of a unified market, development of new productive forces, and reforms in social security and financial systems [3]. Group 3: A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a significant rally by mid-2026, with a potential peak in the spring of 2026 [4]. - Factors supporting this rally include cyclical improvements in fundamentals, strengthening trends in emerging industries, and a shift in resident asset allocation towards equities [4][5]. - Investment focus areas for 2026 include basic chemicals, industrial metals, AI industry chains, and sectors related to manufacturing influence [5].