1)强法治：金融法有望统领金融领域基础性、综合性法律，新《保险法》有望优化资本要求，完善中小 机构风险处置机制;2)严监管：分级分类监管态势预计将延续;3)化风险：聚焦化解利差损、中小机构风 险两大议题;4)促发展：推动负债端长期可持续增长，推动险资入市;人保集团财险业务"走出去"战略定 位升级，中资保险公司出海有望迈入新阶段。 负债："反内卷"政策持续推进，分红险有望接棒增额终身寿险 财产险方面，非车险综合治理步入落地期，通过优化考核机制、规范费率条款与费用管理，高风险险种 COR有望显著改善;人身险方面，个险"报行合一"正式落地，有助于压降负债成本、助力费差改善。居 民真实无风险利率明显回落，预定利率持续下调，资本市场预期改善态势下，将分红险作为核心产品推 动成为市场多数机构共识;同时，分红险的分红水平持续得到监管约束，有助于有效管控负债成本的浮 动部分。银保渠道作为头部机构的重要战略发展方向，机构竞争从渠道、产品竞争升级为多重资源竞 争。 资产：战略定位持续升级，险资入市仍将为26年关键趋势 智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，3Q25 A股险企利润大增68%，投资业绩贡献前三季度税前利 润增量的7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that by the end of 2024, second-hand ship prices and new ship prices will peak and then decline, with second-hand ship prices stabilizing and surpassing their previous highs by 2025. [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - By September 2025, the second-hand ship price index is expected to cross above the new ship price index, which historically has occurred four times since 2000, with three instances leading to supercycle markets. [1][3] - The shipping sector's improved sentiment is gradually transmitting to the upstream shipbuilding industry, as seen in past trends where shipbuilding stocks lagged behind the shipping market by about four months. [1][2] Group 2: Oil Tanker Market - The oil tanker charter rates are rising, indicating an increase in oil shipping market sentiment, which is expected to accelerate the transmission of this sentiment to the shipbuilding sector. [4] - The oil shipping market is anticipated to face a wave of old ships being retired, which could stimulate a recovery in the shipbuilding market, presenting opportunities for shipbuilding companies. [4] Group 3: Price Movements - The new ship price index saw a weekly increase of 0.03% to 184.86 points, primarily driven by a 0.15% rise in new oil tanker prices, reflecting the upward transmission of oil shipping market sentiment to shipbuilding. [5] - The second-hand ship price is expected to stabilize and exceed the previous high before the 2024 decline, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. [3] Group 4: Valuation - Shipbuilding companies such as China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) and China Ship Defense (00317) are currently undervalued, with their order book amounts at approximately 56 billion and 7 billion USD, respectively, and market capitalization to order ratio at historical lows. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Shenxiang Custody Operation Service Platform" by Shenwan Hongyuan marks a significant upgrade in the company's custody operation business, emphasizing technological innovation as a key driver for high-quality development in the industry [1]. Group 1: Platform Features - The platform is built on six breakthrough highlights, creating an efficient, intelligent, and open custody operation service system [2]. - It reconstructs user experience by simplifying operational processes and enabling intelligent queries and real-time report generation, significantly enhancing business efficiency [2]. - The platform architecture has been upgraded from a monolithic structure to a microservices architecture, addressing industry pain points such as high module coupling and poor data synchronization [2]. - A unified data middle platform has been established to integrate data resources across all business modules, resolving the issue of data silos [2]. - The platform ensures a secure and controllable technical foundation that aligns with the requirements of the domestic innovation ecosystem while enhancing system performance [2]. - An open API interface platform has been created to facilitate rapid integration of internal and external systems, promoting ecological cooperation and business innovation [2]. - AI technologies, including machine learning and natural language processing, have been deeply integrated into the entire process of risk control, operations, and decision-making, reducing labor costs and operational risks [2]. Group 2: Core Business Upgrades - The platform has completed comprehensive upgrades in five core business scenarios: TA clearing, valuation accounting, investment supervision, fund transfer, and performance analysis [3]. - The share registration system achieves "automated clearing for single products," constructing a fully automated operation system centered on "single products" [3]. - The valuation accounting system utilizes high-frequency data collection and intelligent tools to digitize the entire process from valuation to reporting, improving efficiency and accuracy [3]. - The investment supervision system can complete compliance calculations for over ten thousand products within 30 minutes, significantly enhancing precision and efficiency [3]. - The fund transfer system has added features such as combination transfers and trajectory visualization, allowing for fund disbursement in as little as one minute, making operations more flexible and transparent [3]. - The performance analysis service has expanded its analysis models and indicator systems, introducing multi-dimensional indicators to support in-depth analysis [3].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 新浪财经讯，11月18日，申万宏源证券2026资本市场投资年会在上海举办，申万宏源研究债券首席分析 师黄伟平发表申万宏源2026年债券策略投资展望，他认为， 2025年经济主要支撑在于：1）外需拉动；2）生产驱动，尤其制造业；3）财政扩张社会信用。 过去几年债市核心矛盾的切换：从信用收缩到资产配置再平衡。 2025年债市逻辑主线在预期差：Q1资金预期差、Q2中美关系预期差，Q3资产配置预期差（ 存款搬家 +股市风险偏好回升）、 Q4央行买债预期差。2025年信用周期的框架难以解析债市表现，进入低利率 环境资产配置的性价比开始深刻影响债市。 当前债市核心矛盾进入新阶段："物价+资金流向"开始受市场关注。经济转型进入新阶段，地产对经济 影响可能回到2015年附近，对经济影响不强。 • 化债解决了经济结构转型中的"历史遗留问题"，按照"6+4+2"的化债方案2026年化债进程 到"46%-70%"，资产荒压力进一步缓解。 • 居民存量财富再分配的逻辑开始受到市场重视。 • 利率进入低位后，波动性往往会增加。 百年未有之大变局遇上十五五规划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis presented by Shenyin Wanguo's chief analyst suggests a two-phase bull market, with 2025 representing the "Bull Market 1.0" focused on technology, and a potential transition to a broader bull market in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The "Bull Market 1.0" in 2025 is characterized by a technology-driven structure, with expectations of a peak in the spring of 2026 [1] - The second half of 2026 may initiate a comprehensive bull market, termed "Bull Market 2.0" [1] Group 2: AI Industry Insights - The AI industry trend is expected to continue evolving, but the stock prices of A-share AI industry chain companies are currently in a long-term low cost-performance zone [1] - This situation is reminiscent of previous market phases, such as the early 2014 ChiNext, early 2018 food and beverage sector, and early 2021 new energy sector [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, markets often undergo a phase of skepticism before continuing with industry trend-driven rallies [1]

本报讯 （记者周尚伃）11月18日，申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会在上海举办。 申万宏源证券党委书记、董事长刘健在主论坛致开幕辞。他表示，2026年是"十五五"开启之年，中国经 济和资本市场都将进入高质量发展的新阶段，这一发展态势主要体现在以下三个方面。 二是，新制度体系重塑资本市场新格局。 近年来，政策层面多次强调要活跃资本市场，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能。在大力发展直接 融资导向下，未来资本市场有望进一步提质扩容。 同时，资本市场基础制度的改革将显著提升市场包容性、适应性。近年来以建设金融强国为目标，以 新"国九条"为指引，资本市场加快完善1+N的制度体系。"十五五"时期资本市场将以深化科创板、创业 板、北交所改革为抓手，进一步健全科技创新企业识别筛选、价格形成等制度机制，积极发展私募股权 和创投基金，提升对实体企业的全链条、全生命周期服务能力。此外，资本市场良性生态的形成将显著 提升市场吸引力。随着上市公司治理及互联互通机制的进一步完善，买方机构、卖方中介、上市公司和 中小投资者之间相互约束、相互促进的良性市场生态将进一步提升中国市场的投资吸引力。 三是，新服务体系打开投资工具新空间。 为更好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is far from over, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global competition is intensifying, necessitating a shift in mindset for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking, which will drive market dynamics [1] - The transition of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, indicating further potential for A-share liquidity improvement [1][2] Group 2: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is anticipated to reach a peak in spring 2026, with a subsequent transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the latter half of 2026 [2] - The second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," is expected to be a comprehensive bull market driven by improvements in fundamental cycles, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence of China [2][3] Group 3: Profit Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 indicate two significant milestones: the first effective rebound in profitability for all A-shares in five years and the first double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in five years [3] - Forecasted year-on-year growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders are 7% for 2025 and 14% for 2026, with substantial quarterly growth expected [3] Group 4: Sector Trends - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will see high-dividend defensive stocks outperforming, while the latter phase will focus on cyclical recovery and growth sectors [3] - Key structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends with opportunities in AI, and enhanced manufacturing influence [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, as stated by Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities [1] Group 2 - A new factor system is expected to activate new engines for economic growth, shifting from reliance on investment and exports to new drivers such as knowledge, technology, data, computing power, and talent [3] - The future growth of China's economy will be driven by new factor dynamics, opening up new investment opportunities in the capital market [3] Group 3 - The new institutional framework aims to reshape the capital market's structure, emphasizing the combination of an effective market and a proactive government [3] - The direct financing scale in China has been expanding, with direct financing accounting for over 30% of the total, and the bond market exceeding 190 trillion yuan, while the stock market's market value has surpassed 100 trillion yuan [3] - The securitization rate has improved to nearly 80%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have maintained a leading position in global financing scale [3] Group 4 - A new service system is being developed to adapt to changes in the economic landscape, with Shenwan Hongyuan Securities innovating its service framework to encompass a full business chain, tool system, and lifecycle approach [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Annual Conference emphasizes the transition of China's economy and capital markets towards high-quality development, driven by new factors such as knowledge, technology, and data, which will create new investment opportunities in the capital market [1][2][4]. Group 1: New Element System Activating Economic Growth - China's economic growth is shifting from traditional investment and export-driven models to new drivers represented by knowledge, technology, data, computing power, and talent [2]. - The R&D expenditure in China is projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, with a GDP ratio of approximately 2.69%, surpassing Japan and South Korea in scale [4]. - The digital economy's added value is expected to reach 59.6 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for over 43% of GDP, reflecting an increase of about 8 percentage points over the past five years [5]. Group 2: Restructuring Capital Market New Pattern - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the combination of an effective market and a proactive government, enhancing the role of the capital market in resource allocation [6]. - Direct financing in China has expanded, with its proportion exceeding 30%, and the bond market's scale surpassing 190 trillion yuan, while the stock market's market capitalization has exceeded 100 trillion yuan [6][7]. - The capital market's reform aims to improve inclusivity and adaptability, with significant achievements in supporting innovative enterprises through various financing products [7]. Group 3: New Service System Opening Investment Tool Space - The company is innovating its service system to adapt to changes in the economic landscape, focusing on comprehensive capital services that include risk investment, IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, and ESG consulting [9]. - Investment services are being enhanced to meet diverse asset allocation needs, with a focus on providing a rich array of products for different risk preferences [9]. - The trading service system is being developed to support liquidity through capital intermediary transactions and innovative products like carbon finance [9].

Core Viewpoint - The successful issuance of the "CITIC Baixin Bank Co., Ltd. 2025 Special Financial Bonds for Small and Micro Enterprises" marks a significant milestone in the digital banking sector, showcasing the bank's commitment to supporting small and micro enterprises through innovative financial solutions [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance has a scale of 2 billion yuan, a term of 3 years, and a coupon rate of 1.98%, setting a historical low for internet commercial banks [2]. - This bond is the first financial bond issued by an internet commercial bank specifically for small and micro enterprises, highlighting a breakthrough in the digital inclusive finance sector [2]. Group 2: Bank Overview - CITIC Baixin Bank, established in 2017, is the first state-controlled digital bank in China, initiated by CITIC Bank and Baidu, and serves as a testing ground for the digital transformation of the banking industry [2]. - The bank focuses on a diversified business model driven by financial technology, with consumer finance as its core, digital financial services for industries as a secondary growth curve, and non-loan businesses as potential areas for expansion [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - As of June 2025, CITIC Baixin Bank's total assets reached 119.516 billion yuan, and the net profit for the first half of 2025 was 472 million yuan, indicating continuous improvement in operational efficiency [2]. Group 4: Purpose of Fundraising - The funds raised from this bond will be specifically used to provide loans to small and micro enterprises, aligning with national policies aimed at enhancing financial services for these businesses [3]. - The bank's digital products, such as the "Entrepreneur Guarantee Loan," effectively address the financing challenges faced by small and micro enterprises, with the inclusive small and micro loan scale reaching 9.1 billion yuan by the end of 2024, a significant increase of 45% year-on-year [3]. Group 5: Role of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities played a crucial role in the successful issuance of the bond by leveraging its professional expertise and executing the project efficiently [3]. - The successful issuance expands Shenwan Hongyuan's experience in underwriting bonds for internet banks and lays a solid foundation for further development in the financial bond market [3].