格隆汇1月29日丨东方盛虹(000301.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前拥有硫磺产能60万吨/年。硫磺 价格中枢持续上移，对公司硫磺业务带来积极影响。硫磺是公司炼化一体化项目下的产品之一，具备上 下游一体化生产的成本优势。 ...

Group 1 - The refining and trading sector increased by 2.34% on January 28, with Taishan Petroleum leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed significant price increases, with Taishan Petroleum rising by 6.84% to a closing price of 8.12 [1] Group 2 - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 236 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 702 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Guanghui Energy and China Petroleum had varying net inflows and outflows, indicating mixed investor sentiment [3] - Taishan Petroleum had a net inflow of 53.70 million yuan from main funds, but a significant outflow of 777.49 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a price surge driven by aromatics and by-products, with significant improvements in price differentials since early December. Key price changes include: - PX price differential improved by $81/ton - Pure benzene price differential improved by $98/ton - PTA price differential improved by 190 RMB/ton - Styrene price differential improved by 866 RMB/ton - Butadiene increased by 3650 RMB/ton - Sulfur increased by 325 RMB/ton, reaching a new high [1][1][1] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Aromatics and By-products as Price Drivers**: The surge in prices is attributed to the early end of production and a decline in supply for aromatics and by-products, indicating a long-term supply-demand imbalance. Exports exceeding expectations are also a significant catalyst for this price increase [1][1][1]. 2. **Olefins Rebalancing**: The year 2025 is projected to be a significant year for olefin production, which may lead to severe price impacts. The ethylene/propylene price differential is currently below the 20th percentile of the last decade. The market is in a rebalancing phase, with expectations of increased maintenance and exit plans for overseas ethylene in 2026, leading to a potential recovery of 600-700 RMB/ton in PP/PE futures from recent lows [1][1][1]. 3. **Tightening of Olefin Approvals**: Although olefin approvals have significantly tightened, existing capacity will need time to be absorbed, with a potential rebound in 2026, though a reversal is not yet assured [2][2][2]. 4. **Impact of Carbon Neutrality Goals**: The "dual carbon" goals are reshaping the long-term pricing logic in the industry. The tightening of carbon indicators during the 14th Five-Year Plan and the difficulty in approving new petrochemical capacities suggest that supply-demand improvements are a long-term trend. The elimination of older facilities may accelerate, benefiting leading companies that have expanded capacity in recent years, thereby strengthening their cost and carbon emission advantages [2][2][2]. Recommendations - The petrochemical sector is a key focus area for national macroeconomic regulation. The recent price increases in the sector are not merely valuation adjustments but are driven by the sequential price increases of key products. Recommended companies include: - Rongsheng Petrochemical - Hengli Petrochemical - Dongfang Shenghong - Hengyi Petrochemical - Huajin Co., Ltd. - Qixiang Tengda [2][2][2].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to strengthen, with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a maximum intraday increase of 1.32% and closing up 0.91% [1][7] - Key stocks in the sector include Yuntianhua and Salt Lake Co., both rising over 4%, while Wanhuacheng, Dongfang Shenghong, and Cangge Mining saw increases of over 3% [1][7] - Recent data indicates that the chemical ETF has attracted over 1.1 billion yuan in net subscriptions over the past five trading days and more than 2.4 billion yuan over the last twenty days [9] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of a four-year down cycle, with indicators suggesting it has nearly bottomed out, and 2026 is expected to be a turning point for the cycle [3][9] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported 3930 points on December 31, 2025, a 39% decline from the 2021 peak, indicating the industry is in a historical low range [3][9] - The basic chemical sector achieved a net profit of 112.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, indicating initial stabilization [3][9] Group 3 - In the context of improving fundamentals, the allocation ratio for the chemical sector has shown signs of recovery in Q4, with the expansion cycle nearing its end and profitability still at the bottom of the cycle [3][9] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, covering popular themes such as AI computing power, anti-involution, robotics, and new energy [3][10] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for exposure to the chemical sector [10]

截至发稿，邓童累计任职时间4年66天，现任基金资产总规模88.64亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 131.07%， 任职期间最差基金回报2.09%。 窦福成累计任职时间75天，现任基金资产总规模26.35亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报13.16%， 任职期间 最差基金回报-11.37%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，招商基金旗下1只基金重仓东方盛虹。招商中证商品指数基金（161715）四季度持有股数 29.47万股，占基金净值比例为1.04%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约17.98万元。 招商中证商品指数基金（161715）成立日期2012年6月28日，最新规模3.09亿。今年以来收益13.87%， 同类排名941/5579；近一年收益66.67%，同类排名633/4270；成立以来收益182.01%。 招商中证商品指数基金（161715）基金经理为邓童、窦福成。 1月26日，东方盛虹涨5.05%，截至发稿，报12.69元/股，成交4.61亿元，换手率0.56%，总市值838.97亿 元。 资料显示，江苏东方盛虹股份有限公司位于江苏省苏州市吴江区盛泽镇登州路289号国家先进功能纤维 创新中心研发大楼 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day for this year [6][16]. - The EIA has adjusted its 2026 oil price forecast upward to an average of $56 per barrel, while lowering the natural gas price forecast to $3.46 per million British thermal units [7][11]. - The IEA expects a demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC and EIA have slightly reduced their demand forecasts [11][16]. Supply and Demand Summary - The EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for this year by 120,000 barrels per day, while the IEA has increased its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [13][16]. - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will rise by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 1.13 million barrels per day [15][16]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [16]. Price Trends Summary - The price of butadiene has surged over 28% since the beginning of the year, driven by a narrowing price spread between naphtha and ethylene [17]. - As of January 23, the spot price of butadiene reached 10,700 yuan per ton [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [21]. - It suggests monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as refining margins are expected to improve [21]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering, given the high capital expenditure in offshore exploration [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the spandex industry is at a turning point, with prices reaching historical lows and recent price increases indicating a recovery in the industry [1][2] - The report emphasizes the limited new capacity in the spandex sector and the exit of outdated capacity, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance and a positive outlook for the spandex industry [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance the recovery of the "refining-chemical fiber" industry chain, with improvements in market competition and supply-demand dynamics [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Spandex prices have dropped from a peak of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, a decline of 72% [1] - The report notes that spandex production capacity in China is projected to grow from 925,000 tons in 2020 to 1,430,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of spandex in China is expected to increase from 720,000 tons in 2020 to 1,060,000 tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.7% [2] - The report indicates that the spandex industry is entering a recovery phase due to the reduction in new capacity and the exit of outdated production [2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize market competition and improve the supply-demand balance in the refining and chemical fiber sectors [3] - The report suggests that the refining industry is nearing the end of capacity expansion, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester filament sector such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as spandex companies like Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [4]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 1.03% and reaching a new high since July 2022 [1][8] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Dongfang Shenghong and Chuanfa Longmang, saw significant gains, with increases exceeding 6% [1][8] - The chemical ETF has attracted substantial investment, with net subscriptions of nearly 1.2 billion yuan over the last five trading days and over 1.45 billion yuan in the last ten days [10] Group 2 - Since the beginning of 2025, the chemical ETF's underlying index has achieved a cumulative increase of 58.91%, outperforming major A-share indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (23.4%) and the CSI 300 Index (19.51%) [3][10] - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of a four-year down cycle, with indicators suggesting a potential turnaround in 2026 [12] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a significant decline of 39% from its peak in 2021, indicating that the industry is at historical low levels [12]

Group 1 - The company, Dongfang Shenghong, currently has an epoxy propane production capacity of 200,000 tons, styrene production capacity of 450,000 tons, and polyether polyol production capacity of 115,000 tons, with all facilities operating at full capacity [1] - These products are part of the company's integrated refining and chemical project, which provides a cost advantage through upstream and downstream integration [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ) currently operates at full capacity with an epoxy propylene production capacity of 200,000 tons, styrene production capacity of 450,000 tons, and polyether polyol production capacity of 115,000 tons, benefiting from cost advantages due to integrated refining projects [1] Group 1 - The company has a total epoxy propylene capacity of 200,000 tons [1] - The styrene production capacity stands at 450,000 tons [1] - The polyether polyol production capacity is 115,000 tons [1] Group 2 - All mentioned products are part of the company's integrated refining project [1] - The company is currently operating all facilities at full capacity [1] - The integrated production model provides cost advantages for the company [1]