Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and a mixed performance in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the current market environment due to falling oil prices and a downturn in the aromatics sector [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 60.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 386 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [4]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 30.6 billion yuan, down 15.2% year-on-year but up 0.98% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The net profit for Q2 was 4.5 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year decline of 37.1% and a quarter-on-quarter drop of 86.8% [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The average Brent crude oil price in Q2 2025 was $66.76 per barrel, down 22% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The naphtha cracking margin was -50 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 19 yuan per ton and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20 yuan per ton [5]. - The refining margin was 1,111 yuan per ton, up 420 yuan per ton year-on-year and 158 yuan per ton quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The PX margin was -389 yuan per ton, down 821 yuan per ton year-on-year but up 175 yuan per ton quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The PTA margin was 420 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35 yuan per ton and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 94 yuan per ton [5]. - The DTY margin was 2,222 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton year-on-year and 88 yuan per ton quarter-on-quarter [5]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company is implementing a "1+N" development strategy to strengthen its integrated chemical raw material supply platform and enhance downstream industry chain construction [6][7]. - In the first half of 2025, the company added 400,000 tons of EVA production capacity, bringing total capacity to 900,000 tons per year [7]. - The company maintains a leading position in products such as EVA, acrylonitrile, and MMA, while also achieving a breakthrough in the technology of nitrile latex products [7]. - The company is expanding its product matrix in the new energy and new materials sector, focusing on high-end product development and innovation [7]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policies initiated in 2024 are expected to improve market conditions by curbing excessive competition in the petrochemical industry [8]. - The emphasis on high value-added transformation marks a new phase in policy direction, which may lead to a reversal in the industry's downturn [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 609 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.86 billion yuan, an increase of 21.2% [4][5]. - The decline in performance in Q2 2025 is attributed to falling oil prices and a downturn in aromatics market conditions, with Brent crude oil averaging 66.76 USD per barrel, down 22% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is actively consolidating its "1+N" industrial layout, focusing on high-end product development and expanding its new energy materials product matrix [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 306 billion yuan, down 15.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.45 billion yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the impact of falling oil prices and market conditions [8][9]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a potential reversal in the refining industry's downturn due to ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at regulating competition and promoting high-value transformation in the petrochemical sector [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from these policies as they may help mitigate low-price competition in the industry [7]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.65 billion yuan, 14.04 billion yuan, and 20.62 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.15, 0.21, and 0.31 yuan [8][9]. - The report indicates a stable growth trajectory for the company’s new materials projects, suggesting significant growth potential [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.208 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09% [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.023 billion yuan, down 83.34% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 0.022 billion yuan, down 82.14% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.10% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.29% [2][6] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 0.018 billion yuan, down 83.38% year-on-year but up 228.72% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on deep processing of C4 raw materials, forming four product lines including butene, isobutylene, butane, and isobutane, with major products like methyl ethyl ketone, maleic anhydride, MMA, and nitrile latex [6] - The company is the largest producer of methyl ethyl ketone in the world, holding a market share of approximately 70% in China [6] Industry Analysis - The C4 industry is experiencing a phase of capacity expansion, with the domestic butanone industry entering a growth period from 2020 to 2024 [6] - The company has a competitive advantage due to its location in Shandong, which has abundant refining resources [6] Financial Performance - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company to be 0.32 billion yuan, 0.76 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 45.4 times, 19.1 times, and 12.0 times based on the closing price on August 22, 2025 [6] Market Conditions - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material prices, which will alleviate cost pressures and improve operating conditions [6] - Despite global trade tensions impacting end-demand, the alleviation of cost pressures is anticipated to lead to significant improvements in operational performance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global industry is undergoing a profound adjustment, resonating with China's high-quality economic development, leading to a strategic transformation reshaping the growth model of high-tech enterprises [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 5.981 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.65% [1] - The clean energy sector remains stable, contributing significantly to the company's overall performance amidst a competitive external environment [3] Group 2: Clean Energy Sector - The subsidiary Nanjing Chengzhi has improved production efficiency through multi-dimensional strategies, maintaining stability in the clean energy sector [3] - The company is actively involved in key projects, including the MMA project, with 23 ongoing R&D projects [3] - The new materials integrated propylene value chain project is set to commence production in 2024, increasing the company's octanol production capacity to 450,000 tons per year [4] Group 3: New Materials and Technology - The establishment of the Chengzhi Huqing New Materials Industrial Park aims to break international intellectual property barriers and reduce reliance on foreign capital [4] - Chengzhi Yonghua, a subsidiary, has seen over 30% year-on-year growth in sales revenue and TFT-LCD liquid crystal material sales, solidifying its position as a leading supplier [5][6] - The acquisition of 1,183 liquid crystal patents from Japan's DIC Corporation for 240 million yuan will accelerate the development of high-performance liquid crystal products [5] Group 4: Synthetic Biology and Market Expansion - The company is a pioneer in synthetic biology, focusing on D-ribose applications in dietary supplements and pharmaceuticals [7] - Online sales channels have seen a 70% year-on-year increase, while traditional channels have grown by 12% [8] - The company is expanding its industrial hemp processing capabilities and has signed cooperation agreements with several research institutions to explore high-value utilization of agricultural waste [8] Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The company's strategic layout demonstrates strong capabilities in integrating the industrial chain, with a focus on technological development trends [9] - The company aims to strengthen its market position through resource optimization and product structure enhancement, fostering a high-quality industrial cluster effect [9]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 本期内容提要： [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：长丝需求有所回暖，库存、产销 情况改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 8 月 22 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2431.20 元/吨，环比变化+29.59 元/吨（+1.23%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1080.63 元/吨，环比变化-29.81 元/吨（- 2.68%）。截至 8 月 22 日当周，布伦 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [137]. Core Insights - The report highlights that mainstream filament enterprises are reducing production, while downstream concentrated purchasing is driving inventory reduction [2]. - The Brent crude oil weekly average price as of August 15, 2025, was $66.33 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.00% [2][3]. - The domestic key refining project price difference was 2400.36 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 27.32 CNY/ton (+1.15%) [2][3]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the chemical sector, with some products experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Market sentiment is cautious due to geopolitical events and rising U.S. oil production, leading to a slight decline in international oil prices [2][13]. - Domestic refined oil prices are fluctuating, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7015.71 CNY/ton, 8122.57 CNY/ton, and 5978.29 CNY/ton respectively [13]. Chemical Sector - The report notes that the cost support for chemicals is weak, leading to varied price movements, but overall price differences are expanding [2][40]. - Polyethylene prices have seen a slight increase, with LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE averaging 9535.71 CNY/ton, 7314.00 CNY/ton, and 8000.00 CNY/ton respectively [48]. Polyester Sector - The polyester industry chain is experiencing stable prices, with significant inventory reduction in filament due to production cuts and concentrated purchasing [2][99]. - The average price for polyester filament is reported at 6717.86 CNY/ton for POY, 7060.71 CNY/ton for FDY, and 7928.57 CNY/ton for DTY [99]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of August 15, 2025, the stock price changes for six major refining companies were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.88%), Hengli Petrochemical (-0.59%), Dongfang Shenghong (+0.34%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+2.35%), Tongkun Co. (+6.16%), and Xin Fengming (+8.70%) [124]. - Over the past month, the stock price changes were: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+7.21%), Hengli Petrochemical (+8.36%), Dongfang Shenghong (+3.24%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+3.22%), Tongkun Co. (+17.49%), and Xin Fengming (+21.50%) [124].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [127]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in oil prices, leading to an expansion in the price spread of refining products. As of August 8, 2025, the Brent crude oil average price was $67.67 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 4.90% [2][12]. - Domestic key refining project price spread reached 2378.22 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 42.27 CNY/ton (+1.81%), while the international key refining project price spread was 1097.94 CNY/ton, up by 74.40 CNY/ton (+7.27%) [2][3]. - The report discusses various segments including refining, chemicals, and polyester, indicating a general trend of price declines in chemical products, although some products saw price increases due to supply constraints [2][35][72]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that the market is currently weighing the impacts of tariff agreements and economic data, which have led to concerns about demand. The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high in May, contributing to oversupply expectations [2][12]. - Domestic refined oil prices are fluctuating, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel averaging 7077.57 CNY/ton, 8173.43 CNY/ton, and 5972.93 CNY/ton respectively [12]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is experiencing widespread price declines, with some products seeing price increases due to reduced supply. For instance, the price of acrylonitrile increased slightly due to supply reductions [2][35]. - Polyethylene prices showed minor fluctuations, while the price spread significantly widened, indicating a favorable market condition for producers [41][57]. Polyester Sector - The polyester sector is facing weak cost support due to falling oil prices, leading to price declines in upstream materials like PX, PTA, and MEG. The average price of PTA is currently 4684.29 CNY/ton, with an industry average net profit of -264.65 CNY/ton [81][90]. - The report indicates that the demand for polyester products remains weak, particularly in the downstream market, which is still in a seasonal lull [90][99].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" based on the performance of the industry index relative to the benchmark [135] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant reduction in inventory for polyester filament due to concentrated purchasing by downstream users, alongside a slight increase in upstream prices [1][96] - Brent crude oil prices experienced fluctuations, with a weekly average of $68.91 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.27% [1][2] - The report indicates that the domestic price difference for key refining projects is 2387.33 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.44% [2][1] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that international oil prices rose initially due to a drone attack in Iraq but later fell due to concerns over economic activity and tariff negotiations [1][14] - Domestic and international refined oil prices are experiencing fluctuations, with domestic diesel and gasoline prices at 7117.86 CNY/ton and 8179.14 CNY/ton respectively [14] Chemical Sector - Demand for chemical products remains weak, leading to a slight decrease in price differentials for various chemicals [1][55] - Polypropylene prices have slightly decreased, with the average price at 6311.86 CNY/ton [70] Polyester Sector - The PX market is seeing a slight increase in supply, with prices rising to 6036.48 CNY/ton, and the PTA market is also showing price increases [87][98] - The report indicates that the average price for polyester filament is stable, with significant inventory reduction due to increased purchasing [96] Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices over the past week and month [123][124] - The overall performance of the refining index has increased by 26.53% since September 2017, outperforming the broader market [124]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [121] Core Views - The report highlights that the cost price center has significantly increased, leading to a narrowing of product price differentials in the oil refining sector [1] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending June 20, 2025, was $75.53 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $9.84 [1][2] - Domestic key refining project price differentials decreased to ¥2353.90 per ton, a decline of ¥49.10 per ton (-2.04%), while foreign key refining project price differentials increased to ¥1000.57 per ton, up by ¥48.15 per ton (+5.06%) [1][2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have raised supply concerns, contributing to a strong increase in international oil prices [1] - Domestic and international refined oil prices have generally risen, with domestic diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging ¥7275.43, ¥8224.29, and ¥6273.29 per ton respectively [13] Chemical Sector - Chemical prices have seen a slight increase, primarily supported by cost factors, but the price differentials have narrowed [1] - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices increased, but the rise was insufficient to improve price differentials significantly [51] - Prices for pure benzene and styrene rose significantly due to cost support, while acrylonitrile prices remained stable [51] Polyester Sector - The PX price followed cost logic, with a significant increase due to the conflict in the Middle East, leading to a rise in product prices [76] - The average price of PTA increased to ¥5095.71 per ton, with an industry average net profit of -¥166.46 per ton [82] - The polyester filament market saw a slight increase in prices, but overall profitability remained limited due to insufficient orders [85] Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock performance of six major private refining companies showed declines, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down by 5.84% and Hengli Petrochemical down by 4.25% over the past week [108] - Over the past month, the stock performance of these companies has also been negative, with significant declines noted for Oriental Rainbow and Hengli Petrochemical [108]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [137] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply and demand in the refining sector are weak, and the recent rise in oil prices has not significantly boosted the prices of refined products [1] - Brent crude oil prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions and optimistic market sentiment regarding US-China negotiations, but later faced downward pressure from revised supply and demand forecasts [1][13] - The report highlights that the chemical sector remains under pressure, with limited price increases for chemical products despite rising oil prices [1] - The polyester sector is experiencing a decline in prices and profitability due to weak demand and high supply levels [1] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - As of June 13, 2025, the domestic refining project price difference was 2394.77 CNY/ton, a decrease of 112.93 CNY/ton (-4.50%) from the previous week, while the international price difference was 933.65 CNY/ton, down 117.06 CNY/ton (-11.14%) [2] - Brent crude oil averaged 68.76 USD/barrel, up 5.52% week-on-week, with prices on June 13 reaching 74.23 USD/barrel [2][13] Chemical Sector - The report notes that the price of polyethylene and polypropylene has seen slight increases, but the price differences remain unchanged [1] - EVA prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the average price at 10957.14 CNY/ton, down 42.86 CNY/ton [49] - Pure benzene prices increased slightly, averaging 5978.57 CNY/ton, but the price difference narrowed [49] Polyester Sector - The PX price continues to decline due to high domestic supply and weak demand, with the average price at 5833.75 CNY/ton, down 142.37 CNY/ton [85] - The report indicates that the polyester filament market is facing a downturn, with prices decreasing and profitability declining [95] - PTA prices are stable with a slight increase, averaging 4869.29 CNY/ton, while the average profit margin is negative [97] Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of June 13, 2025, the stock performance of six major refining companies showed mixed results, with Hengli Petrochemical up 1.40% and Dongfang Shenghong down 2.26% over the past week [123][124] - Over the past month, the stock performance varied significantly, with Dongfang Shenghong down 10.15% and Hengli Petrochemical down 2.75% [123][124]