刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：需求淡季 与成本支撑偏弱，化工品价格价差下行 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 12 月 12 日当周，国内重点大 炼化项目价差为 2527.61 元/吨，环比变化+22.27 元/吨（+0.89%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1330.98 元/吨，环比变化-6.23 元/吨（- 0.47%）。截至 12 月 12 日 ...

聚苯新材料一体化项目主要原料来自大亚湾石化园区内相关企业，采用国内/外先进技术，经深加工成 为高附加值产品，填补国内及华南地区空白，提升大亚湾石化园区上下游企业的盈利能力和抗风险能 力。值得一提的是，其生产的PMMA、MS、LCBR、SSBR等产品，将扭转园区大宗通用产品的资源利 用现状，打造全球最大聚苯乙烯制造基地和全链条光学级高分子新材料制造基地。 进一步助力大亚湾石化区强链补链 中化新网讯 近日，惠州仁信新材料股份有限公司（下称"仁信新材"）聚苯新材料一体化项目奠基仪式 举行。该项目总投资额38亿元，将进一步助力大亚湾石化区强链补链，提升产业链抗风险能力。 该项目将建设12.8万吨/年低顺聚丁二烯新材料（LCBR）/溶聚丁苯橡胶（SSBR）、55万吨/年高抗冲聚 苯乙烯（HIPS）、10万吨/年聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯(PMMA)/甲基丙烯酸甲酯-苯乙烯共聚新材料(MS)、35万 吨/年叔丁醇TBA、13万吨/年环氧丙烷、11万吨/年甲基丙烯酸甲酯（MMA）、10万吨/年丁基橡胶 (IIR)，项目投产后预计达产产值约78亿元/年。 ...

近日国内MMA市场价格稳中走软，交投气氛偏淡。月初工厂现货库存压力不大，但下游用户多消化合 约为主，现货采买意向不足，市场对后市缺乏信心，部分贸易商让价促进成交。截至12月2日华东一级 市场收盘均价9250元/吨，环比上月底下跌100元/吨，跌幅1.07%。当前行业开工负荷稳定，供应面相对 充足对价格较难支撑，叠加下游新订单跟进缓慢，供强需弱局面下，预计国内MMA市场窄幅偏弱运 行。 本文源自：卓创资讯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides daily observations on the plastic L and PP markets, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and spot market prices for both L and PP. Important news covers various corporate developments, such as production expansions, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships. Logical analyses consider multiple factors like domestic and international economic indicators, production and inventory data, and their impacts on the polyolefin market. Trading strategies include suggestions on holding, buying, or selling L and PP contracts, as well as options for arbitrage and options trading [1][2][5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with some days showing increases and others decreases. LLDPE market prices also varied, with fluctuations in different regions and ranges from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Market sentiment was often affected by factors such as futures trends, factory price adjustments, and downstream demand. For example, on 25 - 12 - 03, L2601 contract closed at 6817 points, down 14 points or - 0.20%, and LLDPE market prices partially declined [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also had ups and downs. PP market prices showed narrow - range fluctuations, with some days having slight increases or decreases. The market was influenced by factors like futures performance, factory price changes, and downstream procurement behavior. For instance, on 25 - 12 - 03, PP2601 contract closed at 6398 points, down 12 points or - 0.19%, and the domestic PP market prices had a narrow - range fluctuation [1]. Important News - **Corporate Developments**: Many companies announced significant events, such as齐翔腾达's plan to extend its industrial chain in the MMA and PMMA fields,科思创's acquisition by XRG, and万华绿能's establishment in the energy sector. These events could potentially impact the supply and demand of related products in the market [1][21][40]. - **Industry - wide Information**: Information about the global and domestic chemical industries was also reported, including the performance of the基础化工板块, the development of the global特种建筑化学品 market, and the status of China's chemical industry in terms of production and technology [37][18][60]. Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: Various economic indicators were considered, such as domestic automobile sales, manufacturing PMI, global stock market value, and currency - related indices. These indicators had different impacts on the polyolefin market, either positive or negative. For example, a decline in domestic automobile sales index was negative for polyolefin prices [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: Data on PE and PP production capacity utilization, registered warehouse receipts, and inventory levels were analyzed. Increases or decreases in production capacity utilization and inventory changes could affect market supply and demand relationships. For instance, an increase in PE production capacity utilization might lead to an increase in supply [10]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions included holding long or short positions in L and PP contracts, with specific stop - loss points recommended. For example, on some days, it was recommended to hold long positions in L主力 01 contract and set stop - loss at a certain point [2]. - **Arbitrage**: There were also suggestions for arbitrage trading, such as holding positions in specific contract combinations and setting stop - loss levels [2]. - **Options Trading**: In most cases, the report recommended a wait - and - see approach for options trading [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of production cuts in caprolactam on pricing stability, while the price spread for nylon fibers has narrowed [2]. - Domestic key refining project price spread increased to 2425.48 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 29.04 CNY/ton (+1.21%), while international key refining project price spread decreased to 1277.36 CNY/ton, a decline of 151.77 CNY/ton (-10.62%) [3]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price was reported at 63.18 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.05% [2]. Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses the geopolitical situation regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace plan, which has led to fluctuations in international oil prices. Brent and WTI crude prices were reported at 63.20 and 58.55 USD/barrel respectively, with slight increases from the previous week [14]. - Domestic refined oil prices showed minor fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6787.00, 7603.14, and 5905.76 CNY/ton respectively [14]. Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical products market experienced a general decline in prices due to weak demand, with notable decreases in polyethylene price spreads [2]. - The report indicates that the nylon fiber price spread has narrowed significantly due to rising costs in the caprolactam market, despite being in a traditional demand off-season [2]. Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - Polyester cost remained stable, while nylon costs increased significantly, leading to a notable narrowing of the price spread for nylon fibers [2]. - The report mentions that the polyester upstream prices for PX and MEG have slightly decreased, while PTA prices have shown a slight increase [2]. Key Refining Companies Performance - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable weekly changes including Rongsheng Petrochemical (-0.92%) and Xin Fengming (+7.08%) [2].

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - The current price of MMA is approximately 9500 RMB/ton, within the mainstream price range of the industry, with stable production capacity meeting market demand [1] - The company maintains a 30% market share in the anhydride market, with an average operating rate of 90% for its anhydride facilities [2] - The catalyst business generates annual revenue of around 400 million RMB, with a net profit of approximately 60 million RMB, indicating stable operational performance [3] Group 2: Strategic Development and Future Plans - The company plans to extend its industrial chain into high-end materials, focusing on PMMA and other high-performance resin materials [1] - A strategic layout of "one area and two bases" is being developed to enhance raw material supply stability and logistics efficiency [6] - The company aims to strengthen its competitive advantage in the catalyst sector by leveraging synergies with its controlling shareholder, Shandong Energy Group [3] Group 3: Market Challenges and Responses - The anhydride market is currently facing oversupply due to slow downstream demand, particularly influenced by the real estate sector [2] - The company is focused on cost control and process optimization to maintain its competitive edge in the anhydride market [2] - The company views anti-involution policies as beneficial for the chemical industry, promoting the elimination of outdated capacity and enhancing market order [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry. Core Insights - The report highlights that spring orders are beginning to be released in certain regions, and the profitability of polyester filament continues to improve [1]. Summary by Sections Domestic and International Refining Project Price Differentials - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic key refining project price differential is 2389.69 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 52.43 CNY/ton (+2.24%). The international key refining project price differential is 1446.16 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 6.66 CNY/ton (+0.46%) [2][3]. Refining Sector - The report notes that the end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to boost demand. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, raise concerns about supply disruptions from Russia. The Brent and WTI crude oil prices as of November 21, 2025, are 62.56 USD/barrel and 58.06 USD/barrel, respectively, reflecting decreases of 1.83 USD and 2.03 USD from the previous week [2][15]. Chemical Sector - The chemical price differentials are showing a fluctuating trend. Polyethylene prices are stable, while polypropylene demand remains weak, leading to price declines. The report indicates that the price of pure benzene remains stable, with a slight increase in its price differential [2][57]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - Demand for polyester filament is gradually being released, with product prices and profits showing slight increases. The report mentions that two new production facilities have been commissioned, although they have not yet started production. The prices of nylon fiber products have slightly increased, while the price differential has significantly decreased [2][57]. Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of November 21, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies over the past week are as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-9.17%), Hengli Petrochemical (-5.29%), Dongfang Shenghong (-3.44%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-3.01%), Tongkun Co. (-6.04%), and Xin Fengming (-9.63%). Over the past month, stock price changes are: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+4.58%), Hengli Petrochemical (+14.38%), Dongfang Shenghong (+7.91%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+10.44%), Tongkun Co. (+11.55%), and Xin Fengming (+7.98%) [2].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Qixiang Tengda highlights that anti-involution policies will help curb low-level redundant construction in the chemical industry, promote the elimination of backward production capacity, and facilitate the industry's transition from price competition to technological, efficiency, and green development [1] Industry Summary - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry concentration, benefiting leading enterprises through improved market order [1] - The company has minimal old production capacity over 20 years and has completed equipment upgrades, indicating a low risk of short-term impact from policies [1] - The company’s production facilities for phthalic anhydride, MMA, and propylene oxide utilize advanced and environmentally friendly technologies, maintaining technical competitiveness for an extended period [1] Company Strategy - The company plans to leverage its advanced production capacity to optimize product structure and increase the proportion of high value-added products [1] - The company will closely monitor policy directions and market changes, actively adjusting its business strategies, enhancing cost control and operational efficiency [1] - Continuous optimization of existing resources will be pursued to solidify the company's leading position in niche markets, aiming for higher quality development during the industry's recovery phase [1]

Core Insights - The company is actively exploring new application scenarios for its core products to enhance added value and market space [1] - The company is expanding its acetone business into the electronic-grade semiconductor cleaning sector to meet the high-purity chemical demands of advanced manufacturing [1] - The research and development of MMA downstream optical-grade PMMA is accelerating, aiming to break foreign monopolies and expand applications in new energy vehicles and new display technologies [1] - The company's subsidiary, Qilu Keli, is extending its catalyst business to develop catalyst technologies required for products like propylene oxide and MMA [1]

Group 1: Company Performance and Market Conditions - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was relatively weak, with significant losses in Q3 due to declining prices of major chemical products and supply-demand mismatches. However, there are signs of recovery expected in Q4 driven by inventory demand and improved market conditions [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a capital expenditure reduction among most listed companies, indicating a trend towards more controlled capacity expansion [1][2]. - The company exported 545,000 tons of products in the first three quarters of 2025, generating $350 million in export revenue, reflecting stable growth in export business [4]. Group 2: Policy Impact and Industry Trends - The anti-involution policy is expected to curb low-level repetitive construction in the chemical industry, promoting the elimination of outdated capacity and shifting the industry focus towards technology, efficiency, and green development [2]. - The company has minimal old capacity over 20 years and has completed equipment upgrades, positioning it to benefit from improved market order due to the policy [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company is exploring new application scenarios for its core products to enhance value and market space, such as expanding the use of acetone in semiconductor cleaning [3]. - The company is actively seeking opportunities for industrial collaboration to optimize resource allocation and enhance overall competitiveness [2][3]. - There are plans for strategic acquisitions and integrations in the current market downturn, as the valuation of target companies with mature technologies is low, which could strengthen the company's position in high-value product lines [3].