Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year increase expanding. The transaction area for new homes reached 1.87 million square meters, up 11.8% month-on-month and 25.8% year-on-year, with a significant increase in year-on-year growth by 20.6 percentage points [5][15][24] - The Shanghai government has optimized the property tax policy for non-resident buyers, allowing for a tax exemption on 60 square meters per person for families purchasing second or more homes, effective from January 1, 2025 [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of September 13 to September 19, 2025, the new home transaction area increased month-on-month, while the second-hand home transaction area decreased month-on-month. The inventory area for new homes increased month-on-month, and the de-stocking cycle rose [15] - New home transaction volume in 40 cities was 19,000 units, up 12.8% month-on-month and 37.8% year-on-year. The new home transaction area was 1.87 million square meters, with similar increases [16][24] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 1.404 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.0% [27][39] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1.115 million square meters, down 10.9% month-on-month and 39.5% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 14.33 billion yuan, down 49.1% month-on-month and 73.1% year-on-year [60][64] - The average land price per square meter was 1,289.5 yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 42.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.5% [61][66] 3. Company Announcements and Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 8.71 billion yuan, up 18.9% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The total repayment amount was 15.8 billion yuan, up 43.5% month-on-month and 102.6% year-on-year [54][56] - The report highlights key companies such as Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, and Yuexiu Property as potential investment opportunities based on their market positioning and performance [5][13]

Core Viewpoint - I Love My Home's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.03%, while the company has experienced a year-to-date decline of 1.18% in stock price [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, I Love My Home reported operating revenue of 5.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.69%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.80% to 38.40 million yuan [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 530 million yuan, with 10.12 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of July 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for I Love My Home is 90,600, a decrease of 1.00% from the previous period, with an average of 24,888 shares held per shareholder, an increase of 1.01% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant entities such as Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and new entrants like Jiashi Strategy Mixed Fund [3] Market Activity - The stock has seen a trading volume of 97.06 million yuan with a turnover rate of 1.45%, and a total market capitalization of 7.09 billion yuan [1] - The company has appeared on the trading leaderboard twice this year, with the most recent instance showing a net buy of -22.99 million yuan on April 28 [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of I Love My Home fell by 5.19% to 2.92 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 296 million CNY and a turnover rate of 4.40%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 6.878 billion CNY [1] - I Love My Home Holdings Group Co., Ltd. was established on November 30, 1992, and listed on February 2, 1994. The company operates in various sectors including commercial retail, real estate, hotel tourism services, and property management [1] - The revenue composition of I Love My Home includes asset management at 47.76%, brokerage services at 35.90%, new housing business at 8.28%, other services at 4.97%, and commercial leasing and services at 3.08% [1] Group 2 - According to data, one fund under Shanzheng Asset Management has heavily invested in I Love My Home. The Shanzheng Asset Management Selected Industry Mixed Initiation A Fund (018750) increased its holdings by 600 shares in the second quarter, totaling 179,500 shares, which represents 4.71% of the fund's net value, making it the second-largest holding [2] - The Shanzheng Asset Management Selected Industry Mixed Initiation A Fund was established on December 26, 2023, with a latest scale of 10.9956 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 6.18%, ranking 6430 out of 8172 in its category; the one-year return is 31.52%, ranking 4970 out of 7995; and since inception, the return is 19.37% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of the Shanzheng Asset Management Selected Industry Mixed Initiation A Fund is Zhuang Bo, who has a cumulative tenure of 10 years and 191 days. The total asset size of the fund is 11.3079 million CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 24.93% and the worst being -3% [3]

Market Overview - On September 19, the real estate service sector rose by 0.34% compared to the previous trading day, with TeFa Service leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] Stock Performance - TeFa Service (300917) closed at 47.35, up 3.02% with a trading volume of 117,800 shares and a transaction value of 5.47 billion [1] - Other notable stocks include: - China Merchants Jin Yu (001914) closed at 11.90, up 1.71% [1] - Pearl River Shares (600684) closed at 6.28, up 0.80% [1] - I Love My Home (000560) closed at 3.10, up 0.32% [1] - NanDu Property (603506) closed at 14.24, down 0.21% [1] - Ningbo Fuda (600724) closed at 4.94, down 0.60% [1] - World Union (002285) closed at 2.55, down 1.16% [1] - Zhongtian Service (002188) closed at 5.62, down 1.40% [1] - ST Ming Cheng (600136) closed at 1.87, down 1.58% [1] - Huangting International (000056) closed at 2.88, down 4.64% [1] Capital Flow - The real estate service sector experienced a net outflow of 70.44 million from institutional investors and 19.52 million from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 89.96 million [1] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - I Love My Home (000560) saw a net inflow of 8.13 million from institutional investors [2] - World Union (002285) had a net inflow of 3.23 million from retail investors [2] - ST Ming Cheng (600136) experienced a significant net outflow of 6.51 million from institutional investors [2] - Huangting International (000056) had a net inflow of 29.70 million from retail investors despite a net outflow from institutional and speculative investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company "I Love My Home" has experienced a decline in stock price and trading activity, with a notable drop in net outflow of funds, while its revenue and net profit show mixed results in recent financial reports [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 19, "I Love My Home" saw a stock price decrease of 2.27%, trading at 3.02 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 7.114 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 0.85%, with a 4.43% drop over the last five trading days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent instance on April 28, where it recorded a net buy of -22.99 million CNY [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, "I Love My Home" reported a revenue of 5.658 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 38.4002 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.80% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 530 million CNY, with 10.1287 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of July 31, the number of shareholders for "I Love My Home" was 90,600, a decrease of 1.00% from the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 24.9567 million shares, a decrease of 7.9016 million shares from the previous period [3].

Market Overview - On September 17, the real estate service sector declined by 0.61%, with Nandu Property leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] Individual Stock Performance - The top-performing stock was Huangting International, which rose by 4.98% to a closing price of 3.16 [1] - Nandu Property experienced the largest drop, falling by 5.07% to a closing price of 14.98 [1] - Other notable declines included Zhongtian Service (-1.83% to 5.90), Zhujiang Shares (-1.55% to 6.37), and Wo Ai Wo Jia (-1.54% to 3.20) [1] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The total trading volume for the real estate service sector was significant, with Huangting International achieving a transaction value of 9.16 billion [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 148.25 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 5706.27 million [1] - However, there was a notable net outflow of 5854.53 million from speculative funds [1] Capital Flow by Stock - Huangting International had a net inflow of 114 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 519.7 million from speculative funds [2] - Nandu Property recorded a net inflow of 192.87 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 359.25 million from speculative funds [2] - Zhongtian Service experienced a significant net outflow of 1003.71 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1399.73 million [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show a downward trend, with significant policy negotiations expected in September [3][4] - From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment reached 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [3][39] - New housing starts and completion areas are at historically low levels, with new starts down 19.5% and completions down 17.0% year-on-year [55] Summary by Sections Investment and Sales Data - From January to August 2025, new housing sales area was 57,304 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 55,015 billion yuan, down 7.3% [3][5] - In August alone, new housing sales revenue fell by 14.0% year-on-year, and sales area decreased by 10.6% [5] Price Trends - The average selling price of new residential properties was 9,600 yuan per square meter, down 2.7% year-on-year [19] - In August, the average price was 9,487 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [19] Investment and Funding - Real estate development investment for January to August 2025 was 60,309 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [39] - Funding for real estate enterprises was 64,318 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year [39] Construction Activity - New housing starts were 39,801 million square meters, down 19.5% year-on-year, while completions were 27,694 million square meters, down 17.0% [55] - In August, new housing starts fell by 20.3% year-on-year, and completions decreased by 21.4% [55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate sector is unlikely to see a trend-driven market due to the current fundamentals, but recent policy relaxations in major cities may provide opportunities [70] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, Beike-W, and I Love My Home [70]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [25] Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.6%. The decline in second-hand home prices has expanded compared to July [6][9] - The number of cities with declining new home prices was 57, with an average decline of 0.41%, while 69 cities saw a drop in second-hand home prices, with an average decline of 0.59% [6][12] - First-tier cities experienced a narrowing decline in new home prices, down 0.1%, while second-hand home prices remained stable, with a decline of 1.0% [6][14] - The report emphasizes the need for the real estate market to stabilize and recover from the current downward pressure on prices, with a focus on policy adjustments in major cities to boost market sentiment [6][18] Summary by Sections Price Trends - New home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1%, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0% in August [6][14] - Second-tier cities saw new home prices decline by 0.3% and second-hand prices drop by 0.6% [6][14] - Third-tier cities experienced a 0.4% decline in new home prices, while second-hand prices remained stable [6][14] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the current price declines are the largest since November 2024, indicating significant downward pressure on the market [6][18] - Policy adjustments in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen aim to improve market conditions, although the sustainability of these effects remains uncertain [6][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [6] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [6] 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, such as New Town Holdings and China Vanke [6] 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market, including Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [6]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87 points, slightly above the annual line, with a change of 0.04% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 23670.69 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 79 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] - The stocks with the highest deviation rates include: - Longxin Zhongke: 13.82% deviation, closing price at 149.59 yuan, with a daily increase of 14.89% and turnover rate of 5.54% [1] - Huazhi Wine: 10.72% deviation, closing price at 19.51 yuan, with a daily increase of 11.17% and turnover rate of 4.82% [1] - Hanbang High-tech: 8.19% deviation, closing price at 8.30 yuan, with a daily increase of 11.41% and turnover rate of 14.00% [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Deviations - Other stocks that have just crossed the annual line with smaller deviation rates include: - Huashu Holdings: 4.70% deviation, closing price at 2.62 yuan, with a daily increase of 5.65% [1] - Guoyao Modern: 2.60% deviation, closing price at 9.62 yuan, with a daily increase of 5.48% [1] - Ningxia Building Materials: just above the annual line with minor deviation [1]