2024 年 04 月 30 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： [Table_Title] 高举品牌复兴旗帜，继续高速前行 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 秦一方 S0350523120001 ——古井贡酒（ ） 年报及 年一 000596 2023 2024 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 景皓 S0350124030009 季报点评 jingh@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 事件 : 2024年4月27日，古井贡酒发布2023年年报及2024年一季报。2023 年公司实现营业收入202.54亿元，同比+21.18%；实现归母净利润45.89 亿元，同比+46.01%。2024 年一季度实现营业收入 82.86 亿元，同比 +25.85%；实现归母净利润20.66亿元，同比+31.61%。2023年公司EPS 为8.68元/股，拟每10股派45.00元（含税）。 投资要点 : 相对沪深300表现 2024/04/29  保持高速增长，开启后两百亿元时代。2023年，公司营业收入达到 表现 1M 3M 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% in the next six months compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [10]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 20.25 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.18%, with a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 46.01% [2]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed continued growth, with revenue reaching 8.29 billion yuan, a 25.85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.07 billion yuan, up 31.61% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.5 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 51.83% [2]. Revenue and Business Structure - In 2023, the company’s revenue from different segments was 19.64 billion yuan from liquor, 84 million yuan from hotels, and 531 million yuan from other businesses, with respective growth rates of 21.47%, 45.53%, and 8.82% [3]. - The premium product line, particularly the aged liquor, showed significant growth, with revenue of 15.42 billion yuan, a 27.34% increase [3]. - The company’s sales volume for liquor was 118,300 tons, a 3.16% increase, with an average selling price of 166,000 yuan per ton, up 17.75% [3]. - Revenue from online and offline sales was 19.52 billion yuan and 729 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 21.25% and 19.48% [3]. Profitability and Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin and net margin improved in 2023, with net profit margin at 23.34% and gross margin at 79.07%, reflecting increases of 3.88 and 1.90 percentage points, respectively [4]. - For Q1 2024, the net profit margin reached 25.65%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 80.35% [4]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 5.83 billion yuan, 7.22 billion yuan, and 8.82 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.08%, 23.88%, and 22.16% respectively [4][5].

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 04月 27日 （维持） 证券研究报告•23年报及24年一季报点评 当前价： 264.50元 古井贡酒（000596） 食品饮料 目标价： ——元（6个月） 顺利跨越 200 亿，24 年再启新征程 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公m司ma2r0y2] 3年实现收入202.5亿元，同比+21.2%，归母净利润45.9亿元， [分Ta析bl师e_：Au朱th会or振] 同比+46.0%；其中23单Q4实现收入43.0亿元，同比+8.9%，归母净利润7.8 亿元，同比+49.2%。此外，公司拟每10股派发现金红利45.0元（含税）。24Q1 执业证号：S1250513110001 电话：023-63786049 实现收入82.9亿元，同比+25.9%，归母净利润20.7亿元，同比+31.6%，24Q1 邮箱：zhz@swsc.com.cn 业绩符合市场预期。 分析师：王书龙  23年超额完成目标，24Q1顺利实现开门红。1、2023年白酒行业挤压式增长 的背景下，公司实现收入 202.5亿元，同比+21.2%，超额完成年初制定的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 300 CNY per share over the next six months, corresponding to a valuation of 26 times earnings for 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company successfully achieved a revenue of 20.25 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.2%, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, which is a 46.0% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.29 billion CNY, up 25.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.07 billion CNY, representing a 31.6% increase [1]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 24.45 billion CNY in 2024, which would be a 20.72% increase, and a total profit of 7.95 billion CNY, reflecting a 25.55% growth [2]. Revenue and Profit Structure - In 2023, the revenue breakdown by product shows that the year-on-year raw liquor series generated 15.42 billion CNY, an increase of 27.34%, while the Gujing Gongjiu and Huanghelou brands contributed 2.02 billion CNY and 2.21 billion CNY, with growth rates of 7.56% and 0.87% respectively [1]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 23.3% in 2023 and 25.7% in Q1 2024, an increase of 1.9 and 0.7 percentage points year-on-year respectively [1]. Regional Performance - The company experienced significant growth in various regions, with North China showing a revenue increase of 39.01%, South China at 19.17%, and Central China at 26.87% in 2023 [1]. - The company is focusing on a "nationalization and next-high-end" strategy to enhance its market presence outside its home province, with expectations for breakthroughs in provincial markets [1]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 5.998 billion CNY, 7.480 billion CNY, and 9.127 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 24.7%, and 22.0% respectively [2]. - The report anticipates continued improvements in profit margins due to scale effects and enhanced cost efficiency, with expectations for net profit margins to increase by 1-2 percentage points in 2024 [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 300.78, compared to the last closing price of 264.50 [1][5]. Core Views - The company successfully achieved its dual 10 billion revenue target, with a steady increase in net profit margin [1][5]. - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 20.254 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.18%, and a net profit of 4.589 billion, up 46.01% year-on-year [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed strong performance with revenue of 8.286 billion, a 25.85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.066 billion, up 31.61% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 20.254 billion, with a net profit of 4.589 billion, and a net profit margin of 23.34% [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 8.286 billion and a net profit margin of 25.65% [5][6]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 79.07% in 2023 and 80.35% in Q1 2024, driven by the sales of high-end products [5][6]. Product and Market Analysis - The company’s product segments, including aged raw liquor and other brands, achieved revenues of 15.417 billion and 2.206 billion respectively in 2023, with growth rates of 27.34% and 0.87% [5][6]. - The company expanded its dealer network, adding 242 dealers in 2023, with a total of 4,744 sales personnel [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue of 24.450 billion in 2024, representing a growth of 20.72%, and a total profit of 7.950 billion, up 25.55% [5][6]. - Expected revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are 22%, 19%, and 17%, with net profit growth rates of 28%, 24%, and 23% respectively [5][6].

2024年04月29日 公 司点评 公 增持 / 下调 司 古井贡酒(000596) 研 究 目标价: 300.78 昨收盘:264.50 双百亿目标顺利达成，净利率稳步上升 事件：古井贡酒发布2023年年报和2024年一季报，2023年实现 ◼ 走势比较 营收202.54亿元，同比+21.18%，归母净利润45.89亿元，同比+46.01%， 扣非归母净利润 44.95 亿元，同比+46.59%。2023Q4 实现营收 43.01 10% 亿元，同比+8.92%，归母净利润7.77亿元，同比+49.20%。2024Q1实 太 0% 现营收 82.86 亿元，同比+25.85%，归母净利润 20.66 亿元，同比 平 (10%)4/5/32 41/7/32 32/9/32 3/21/32 21/2/42 32/4/42 +31.61%，扣非归母净利润20.50亿元，同比+32.67%。 洋 2023 年营收突破 200 亿，一季度开门红表现亮眼。2023 年双百 (20%) 证 亿目标顺利达成，一季度开门红表现亮眼。分产品，2023年公司年份 (30%) 原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼及其他分别实现营收 154.17 ...

证券代码：000596、200596 证券简称：古井贡酒、古井贡 B 公告编号：2024-013 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2023 年年度报 告全文及摘要已于 2024 年 4 月 27 日正式披露。为方便广大投资者更 深入全面的了解公司经营情况，公司拟定于 2024 年 5 月 21 日（星期 二）下午 15:00—16:30 举行 2023 年度网上业绩说明会，就公司发展 战略、经营情况等问题与投资者进行充分交流，广泛听取投资者的意 见和建议。 本次业绩说明会将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登陆全景 网"投资者关系互动平台"（http://ir.p5w.net） 参与本次业绩说明会。 出席本次业绩说明会的人员：公司总经理周庆伍先生；公司独立 董事王瑞华先生；公司常务副总经理闫立军先生；公司副总经理许鹏 先生；公司副总经理、总会计师、董事会秘书朱家峰先生（如有特殊 情况，参会人员会有调整）。 为充分尊重投资者、提升交流的针对性，现就公司本次业绩说明 会提前向投资者公开征集问题，广泛听取投资者的意见和建议。投资 者可于2024 年5月16日（星期四）17:00 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 202.5 billion and a net profit of 45.9 billion in 2023, with year-on-year growth of 21.2% and 46% respectively [3] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a forecasted revenue of 244.5 billion and a profit of 79.5 billion in 2024 [4] - The company maintains a strong market position and is expected to benefit from ongoing optimization of expense ratios, which will enhance profitability [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the total revenue reached 202.5 billion, with a net profit of 45.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.2% and 46% respectively [3] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw revenue and net profit of 43.0 billion and 7.8 billion, with year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 49.2% [3] - For the first quarter of 2024, revenue and net profit were 82.9 billion and 20.7 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 25.9% and 31.6% [3] - The gross profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points to 79.1% in 2023, while the net profit margin improved by 3.9 percentage points to 23.3% [3] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 60 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30% [4] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 4.496 billion, with a net increase in cash of 1.571 billion [8] - As of the end of Q1 2024, the company reported contract liabilities of 46.2 billion, an increase of 32.2 billion from the end of 2023 [3] - The company has a solid cash flow performance, with a good balance between operating cash flow and liabilities [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 8.68 yuan, with projections of 11.31 yuan for 2024 [2] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 23.39 for 2024, decreasing to 15.56 by 2026 [2] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 139.81 billion [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported strong financial performance for 2023, with total revenue of 20.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.59 billion RMB, up 46.0% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, revenue reached 8.29 billion RMB, growing 25.9% year-on-year, and net profit was 2.07 billion RMB, an increase of 31.6% year-on-year [1]. - The product mix continues to improve, with significant growth in sales outside the home province. The white liquor business generated 19.64 billion RMB in revenue in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [1]. - The company aims to achieve revenue of 24.45 billion RMB and a total profit of 7.95 billion RMB in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 24.7% and 25.6%, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 79.1%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from an improved product mix. The net profit margin was 22.7%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][12]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 is 11.24 RMB, 13.49 RMB, and 15.71 RMB, respectively, with a target price set at 269.76 RMB based on a 24x PE ratio for 2024 [2][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 35.42 billion RMB in 2023 to 57.43 billion RMB by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [12].

证券研究报告 公 2024年04月29日 司 报 告 古井贡酒(000596) │ 行 业： 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 季 年报及一季报点评：收入利润符合预期，盈利改善持续兑现 当前价格： 264.50元 目标价格： 305.10元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布2023年年报与2024年一季报，2023年公司实现营业收入202.54 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 528.60/528.60 亿元，同比增长21.18%，归母净利润45.89亿元，同比增长46.01%。23Q4 实现营业收入43.01亿元，同比增长8.92%，归母净利润7.77亿元，同比 流通A股市值(百万元) 108,074.70 增长49.20%。24Q1公司实现收入82.86亿元，同比增长25.85%，归母净利 每股净资产(元) 44.60 润20.66亿元，同比增长31.61%。 资产负债率(%) 39.46 ➢ 收入利润符合预期，2023年省内消费升级趋势延续，古16增长领先 一年内最高/最低(元) 301.10/195.39 公司收入利润符合预期。24Q1 合同负债 46.17亿元，同比下降 2.70 ...