公司报告 | 公司点评 古井贡酒（000596） 证券研究报告 坚持"全国化、次高端"战略，25 年稳健发展可期 2024 年 公 司 营 业 收 入 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 为 235.78/55.17/54.57 亿元（同比+16.41%/+20.22%/+21.40%）；2025Q1 公司 营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 91.46/23.30/23.12 亿元（同 比+10.38%/+12.78%/+12.78%）。 年份原浆引领增长，产品结构稳中有升。24 年年份原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼 及 其 他 营 业 收 入 180.86/22.41/25.38 亿元（同比 +17.31%/+11.17%/+15.08%），其中年份原浆占比提升 0.59pcts 至 79.10%， 年份原浆增长快于整体，奠定公司增长基本盘。量价角度看，24 年公司酒 类销量/吨价分别同比+8.44%/+7.37%，量价齐升驱动公司营收增长，其中， 年份原浆销量/吨价同比+11.99%/+4.75%，年份原浆延续放量势能，同时从 均吨价来看产品结构整体仍保持升级态势。 省内大本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major e-commerce platforms are aggressively competing for users during the 618 mid-year promotion, utilizing strategies like substantial subsidies to attract customers, particularly in the high-margin liquor segment, where well-known brands are becoming key products for driving traffic [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Trends and Discounts - During the 618 period, e-commerce platforms offered significant subsidies on premium liquor brands such as Moutai and Wuliangye, with some prices dropping below wholesale reference prices [2][3] - The price of 53-degree 500ml Moutai has notably decreased, with current prices ranging from 2099 to 2200 yuan per bottle, down from approximately 2300 to 2500 yuan last year [2] - Discounts on other high-end liquor brands have also been observed, with some products priced below their respective wholesale prices, indicating a broader trend of price reductions across various liquor categories [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The liquor market is experiencing intense competition, with e-commerce platforms and liquor distributors both seeking to clear inventory and attract more users, leading to price reductions [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while subsidies boost online sales, they may disrupt the pricing structure in offline markets, affecting distributors' profit margins [6][7] - Traditional liquor distributors are adapting to the shift towards online sales, with some exploring new marketing strategies like live streaming to maintain competitiveness [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Shifts - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards better price-to-quality ratios, with younger consumers increasingly opting for alternative beverages over traditional liquor [8][9] - The wedding market has shown signs of recovery, with a significant increase in booking volumes, yet the price range for wedding liquor has contracted, reflecting changing consumer habits [8] - Major liquor companies are focusing on expanding their product offerings and targeting younger demographics to adapt to evolving market conditions [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food and beverage sector. Key areas of focus include "category dividends in the food sector," "new channel drivers like membership supermarkets," and "new hotspots in health products" [2][16] - The traditional consumption represented by liquor may face pressure, with current recommendations for leading brands in the fragrance category [12][16] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to face pressure in Q2, with current valuations remaining low. Recommended stocks include leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for medium-term positioning [12][16] - Recent performance shows a decline of 0.84% in the liquor sector, with notable increases in stocks like Jinhui Liquor (+6.25%) and Huangtai Liquor (+5.03%) [3][22] - Guizhou Moutai has launched new products at the 2025 Osaka World Expo, indicating ongoing brand expansion efforts [4] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector continues to show potential, with a focus on stocks like New Dairy, Jin Zai Food, and Aijia Food. The sector saw a rise in non-dairy beverages (+1.33%) and meat products (+1.30%) [2][22] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with a recommendation for leading stocks in the retail transformation and cost cycle opportunities [16] Market Performance - From June 3 to June 6, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.88%, with the non-dairy beverage and meat product sectors leading the gains. In contrast, other liquor categories saw declines [22] - The valuation levels in the food and beverage industry have adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.64 times earnings, while specific segments like liquor are trading at varying multiples [28]

Group 1 - The 2025 RCEP Local Government and Friendship City Cooperation Forum was held in Huangshan, Anhui Province, showcasing the deep charm of Chinese liquor culture through the strategic partnership of Gujing Gongjiu [1][13] - Gujing Gongjiu introduced the "Gujing Gongjiu Year Original Ancient 20 Osaka Expo China Pavilion Official Partner Commemorative Wine" at the forum, utilizing live streaming and holographic projection to enhance audience engagement [3][5] - A cooperation agreement was signed between Gujing Gongjiu and the Korea Anhui Industrial Development Co., Ltd. to expand sales in the Korean market and enhance brand international recognition [4][7] Group 2 - Gujing Gongjiu's international department director presented a promotion titled "Let Chinese Liquor Become the Language of the World," emphasizing the integration of liquor with the health industry [7] - The company has participated as the official partner of the China Pavilion at five consecutive expos, promoting Chinese liquor culture and local cultural characteristics globally [7] - Gujing Gongjiu has entered over 30 countries and regions worldwide, leveraging its unique brewing process and rich historical culture [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the commitment of Gujing Gongjiu to rural revitalization and the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries through its unique industrial advantages and social responsibility initiatives [1][9]. Group 1: Rural Revitalization Initiatives - Gujing Gongjiu is actively supporting rural revitalization by celebrating the harvest season and showcasing the integration of agricultural production with its liquor production process [1]. - The company has established grain planting bases through order agriculture, which not only enhances the income of local farmers but also ensures a stable supply of high-quality raw materials for its liquor production [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Gujing Gongjiu is leveraging technology to enhance production efficiency and quality, implementing a comprehensive IoT system for monitoring and managing the entire grain cultivation process [3][5]. - The company has achieved a 96% equipment networking rate in its smart brewing facility, allowing for a fully automated production process while adhering to traditional brewing methods [6][8]. Group 3: Social Responsibility - Gujing Gongjiu emphasizes its corporate social responsibility by engaging in poverty alleviation efforts and fostering self-sufficiency in rural communities through education and training [11][12]. - The company has received multiple awards for its social responsibility initiatives, including the "Precision Poverty Alleviation Award" and recognition as one of the "Top 100 Social Responsibility Enterprises" in China's food industry [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Gujing Gongjiu aims to continue its focus on quality, technology, and social responsibility, contributing to the high-quality development of the Chinese liquor industry and rural revitalization efforts [12].

Core Viewpoint - The event "Four Seasons Village Song" and the fifth Harvest Season of Gujing Gongjiu serves as a platform for the company to showcase its quality and cultural heritage while celebrating the harvest [1] Group 1: Quality and Production - The Huanghuai Plain is highlighted as a natural cradle for the quality of Gujing Gongjiu, providing favorable climatic and soil conditions for the growth of high-quality soft winter wheat [3] - The production process of "Taohua Chunqu" is complex and requires strict quality control, with only the best soft winter wheat from the Huanghuai Plain meeting the standards [5] - Gujing Gongjiu's birthplace, Bozhou, is recognized as a significant grain production base and a renowned liquor-producing region, ensuring a steady supply of quality raw materials [6] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Management - Gujing Gongjiu has established a three-dimensional monitoring system in its raw grain bases to ensure 100% traceability and quality control of the wheat used for brewing [8] - The company has launched a smart management platform for raw grain cultivation, integrating ecological wisdom and technological innovation [8] - The establishment of the Gujing Gongjiu Grain Research Institute aims to enhance product quality through scientific research and the development of new wheat varieties [10] Group 3: Agricultural Integration and Future Development - Gujing Gongjiu promotes order agriculture by signing contracts with farmers, providing them with seeds, fertilizers, and technical support, ensuring a reliable supply of quality raw materials [12] - The company aims to leverage the unique advantages of the Bozhou region to continuously improve product quality and contribute to the prosperity of the Chinese liquor industry [12]

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggongjiu is actively promoting the internationalization of Chinese liquor through cultural exchange and quality enhancement, establishing itself as a pioneer in this field [1][2]. Group 1: Internationalization Strategy - Since accelerating its internationalization in 2014, Gujinggongjiu has implemented innovative measures to enhance brand influence, including the "Chinese Wine Culture Global Tour" [2]. - The global tour has successfully held events in key markets such as Düsseldorf, Paris, London, and Hong Kong, receiving widespread acclaim from consumers [2]. - The establishment of the Gujinggongjiu Cultural Research Institute in Berlin in October 2023 marks a significant milestone in its international efforts [3]. Group 2: International Collaborations - In November 2023, Gujinggongjiu launched a collaboration with the Camus Group for the Anhui Guqi Whisky Distillery project, creating a new model for blending Chinese and foreign brewing techniques [5]. - The company will participate in the 2025 Osaka World Expo, where it will unveil the "Gujinggongjiu Vintage Original Liquor" commemorating its six-time participation in expos [7]. Group 3: Global Presence - Gujinggongjiu has expanded its reach to over 30 countries across Asia, Europe, America, Africa, and Australia, including RCEP member countries like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand [9]. - The company will serve as a strategic partner and designated liquor for the 2025 RCEP Local Government and Friendship City Cooperation Forum, further energizing its internationalization efforts [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price of 300 RMB [1]. Core Views - The company is navigating industry cyclicality with a focus on steady growth, emphasizing long-term high-quality development while actively capturing market share [1]. - The management acknowledges the current pressures in the liquor industry but believes that the unique product attributes of liquor allow it to withstand economic cycles [1]. - The company is committed to enhancing operational efficiency and market penetration, focusing on internal management optimization and external market expansion [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 23,578 million RMB - 2025E: 26,086 million RMB (16.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: 28,813 million RMB (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: 31,758 million RMB (10.5% YoY growth) [1] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 5,518 million RMB - 2025E: 6,143 million RMB (20.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,862 million RMB (11.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 7,678 million RMB (11.7% YoY growth) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 10.44 RMB - 2025E: 11.62 RMB - 2026E: 12.98 RMB - 2027E: 14.53 RMB [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 13 times, indicating attractive valuation [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on practical operations and enhancing product offerings, particularly in the mid-range price segment, to drive growth [1]. - Management is implementing a four-pronged strategy to alleviate channel pressures, including boosting sales, reducing inventory, expanding channels, and stabilizing prices [1]. - The company aims to build a robust marketing team and enhance product competitiveness through improved pricing strategies and product quality [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price of 300 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is navigating industry cyclicality with a focus on steady growth, emphasizing long-term high-quality development while addressing short-term market pressures [1]. - The management's pragmatic approach includes enhancing operational efficiency and expanding market share through innovative strategies [1]. - The company aims to strengthen its internal operations and optimize marketing management to foster long-term competitiveness [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 23,578 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.4%. This is expected to grow to 31,758 million CNY by 2027, with a gradual decline in growth rates [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5,518 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 20.2%, reaching 7,678 million CNY by 2027 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 10.44 CNY in 2024, increasing to 14.53 CNY by 2027, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 15 to 11 over the same period [1]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on maintaining market share and enhancing product quality, with specific initiatives to improve sales channels and customer engagement [1]. - Gujing Gongjiu is adopting a nationwide expansion strategy while emphasizing localized market penetration in core regions [1]. - The management is committed to a pragmatic approach, adjusting growth targets to ensure sustainable operations amidst industry challenges [1].