Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor sector and food products [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing extreme pressure testing, with a significant focus on inventory clearance and bottoming out of financial reports. The second quarter has shown weak demand due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to a notable decline in sales and pricing pressures [5][10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to maintain growth, while mid-tier brands face challenges with declining revenues and profits. The overall industry is in a deep clearance phase, with potential for recovery as regulations stabilize [5][12] - The consumer goods sector shows mixed performance, with snacks and beverages remaining strong, while other segments like frozen foods and chain restaurants face ongoing demand pressures [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is experiencing extreme pressure, with weak demand in the second quarter and significant inventory levels. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to show modest growth, while others like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are facing declines [5][11][12] - Moutai's revenue is projected to grow by 7% in Q2, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 1% increase. In contrast, brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are forecasted to decline by 35% and 8% respectively [11][12] 2. Consumer Goods - The overall demand for consumer goods remains weak, but segments like snacks and beverages are performing well. For instance, East Peak is expected to see a 33% increase in revenue, while other snack brands are also showing positive trends [20][25] - The beverage sector is projected to see positive growth, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing expected to report increases in revenue and profit [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks in the short term while considering long-term investments in liquor brands that are currently at their bottom. Brands like Moutai and Gujing are recommended for their lower risk profiles [7][8] - For consumer goods, companies like Anqi and East Peak are highlighted for their growth potential, while traditional dairy brands like Yili and Mengniu are suggested for a bundled investment approach [7][8]

"聪明钱"流向曝光！暗盘资金破解主力操盘密码>> 白酒股午后震荡拉升，泸州老窖（000568）、山西汾酒（600809）均涨超4%，今世缘（603369）、古 井贡酒（000596）涨超3%，五粮液（000858）、水井坊（600779）跟涨。 ...

按所属板块统计，基金高比例持有个股中，创业板有36只、科创板有43只、沪深主板有42只、北交所有 5只。行业分布上，主要集中在电子、医药生物、汽车行业，分别有32只、21只、12只个股上榜。 证券时报 数据宝统计，二季度共有2950只股票入围基金重仓股名单，以基金合计持股量占流通股本的 比例来看，共有17股基金持股比例超过20%，持股比例在10%~20%之间的有109只，持股比例5%~10% 的有258只，持股比例在1%~5%的有771只，1794只重仓股基金持股比例不足1%。 基金控盘比例超10%的个股中，持股比例最高的是九号公司，共有216家基金集体持有，合计持股量 1.95亿股，占流通股本的比例为35.24%；其次是百济神州、诺诚健华，持股比例分别为33.47%、 32.70%。 高比例持仓个股中，从持股量环比变动看，二季度基金增持的有85只，增持幅度居前的有普源精电、华 虹公司、源杰科技，持股量环比增持409.08%、354.96%、317.64%。减持的有41只，减持幅度居前的有 恒玄科技、石头科技、纳睿雷达，减持幅度为37.29%、32.21%、30.98%。 一般来说，基金控盘比例高的个股都有多 ...

数据不会说谎：2024年，规模以上白酒企业产量414.5万千升（同比降1.8%），销售收入却逆势增至 7963.8亿元（同比增5.3%），呈现"量降利升"的特殊形态；而2025年上半年，风向急转——中国酒业协 会数据显示，59.7%的酒企营业利润下滑，50.9%的企业营业额收缩，行业平均存货周转天数高达900天 （同比增10%），更有60%的企业陷入价格倒挂困境。 在这场"冰火交替"的调整中，行业趋势正变得愈发清晰。 半年业绩大考：头部稳中有进，区域与中小酒企承压 上半年的白酒江湖，三个方向的变化尤为突出，显著勾勒出行业新格局： ▶ ▷ 一是"收缩与集中"并行，稳健成共识。 利润与销量双缩窄的压力下，行业集中度加速提升——小厂加速出清，头部企业则集体将目标从"高速 增长"转向"稳健发展"。贵州茅台将2025年营收增速目标定为9%左右，五粮液提出"增速与宏观经济匹 配"，泸州老窖强调"精耕细作稳增长"，均是这一趋势的直接体现。 ▶ ▷ 二是"渠道革命"加速，消费者触达更直接。 大企业不再满足于传统经销商体系，开始主动"直面消费者"：网络平台与即时零售等新渠道销量持续上 升，如五粮液在北京、上海等20城试点"终端 ...

其 他 研 究 开源晨会 0721 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 行业公司 | | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.104 | | | 基础化工 | 1.359 | | | 钢铁 | 1.344 | -20250720 | | 煤炭 | 0.941 | | | 交通运输 | 0.901 | -20250720 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -0.980 | | 电子 | -0.491 | | 轻工制造 | -0.406 | | 公用事业 | -0.345 | | 通信 | -0.313 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【策略】中报业绩预告的行业和个股线索——投资策略周报-202 ...

证券之星食品饮料行业周报：2025年7月14日-2025年7月18日，沪深300指数上涨1.09%，申万食品饮料 指数上涨0.87%。前五大上涨个股分别为：皇氏集团（002329）、百合股份（603102）、煌上煌 （002695）、泸州老窖（000568）、庄园牧场（002910）。 机构观点 天风证券（601162）本周观点(含个股)： 【酒类板块】推荐强α&持续享受集中度提升红利的酒企：山西汾酒（600809）/贵州茅台（600519） 等。 【大众品】我们继续看好符合"降本增效"(成本下行+内控效率提升)/"市占率提升(高成长赛道+拓品类 +拓渠道)"的强α公司，建议关注：立高食品（300973）/西麦食品（002956）/劲仔食品（003000）/东鹏 饮料（605499）/农夫/百润股份（002568）/盐津铺子（002847）/卫龙美味/有友食品（603697）/新乳业 （002946）/妙可蓝多（600882）/锅圈等。 国盛证券本周建议(含个股)： 1、白酒：预计半年度整体承压、结构分化，行业调整中酒企积极求变，期待板块筑底企稳，建议关 注"优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1)优势龙 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from potential domestic policy adjustments and a recovery in consumer demand in the second half of the year [3][4] - The report suggests strategic positioning in leading liquor companies due to their low valuation and favorable market conditions [3][6] - The snack food segment shows strong growth potential, driven by product innovation and emerging sales channels [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector is currently experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, with June 2025 retail sales increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May [4][8] - The report notes that the decline in consumer spending on dining and discretionary items has impacted overall sales performance [4][5] Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with consumption scenarios limited by recent policy changes and promotional activities affecting pricing [6] - The report recommends focusing on top liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu for potential investment opportunities [3][6] Snack Food Sector - The snack food segment, particularly products like konjac, is experiencing robust growth due to health trends and diverse flavor offerings [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying quality companies in the snack food sector that align with industry development trends for long-term investment [3][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growing popularity of low-priced "light bottle" liquor in the Chinese market, as high-end liquor brands struggle with price declines and sales challenges [1][14][16] - Major liquor companies are launching new products in the light bottle segment, with notable examples including Yanghe's "Yanghe Daqu High Line Light Bottle Liquor" priced at 59 yuan, which sold over 10,000 bottles in 48 hours [1][4] - The light bottle liquor market has reached a scale of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan in 2024, with continued growth expected in 2025, making it one of the most dynamic segments in the liquor industry [3][10] Group 2 - Consumer behavior is shifting towards more rational choices, with a significant portion of consumers prioritizing cost-effectiveness and practicality in their liquor purchases [10][11] - The traditional light bottle liquor market, represented by brands like Niulanshan and Baijiu, has established a strong presence, while new entrants are emerging to capture market share amid changing consumer preferences [7][9] - The competitive landscape is intensifying as more companies enter the light bottle segment, leading to concerns about market saturation and the ability to maintain quality and differentiation [17][18] Group 3 - The high-end liquor market, particularly brands priced above 1,000 yuan, is experiencing significant price declines, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing their market prices drop below their official guidance prices [16][17] - The shift towards light bottle liquor reflects a broader trend in the industry where companies are adapting to consumer demands and seeking new growth opportunities in a challenging market environment [15][17] - The light bottle segment is increasingly viewed as a mainstream choice, moving away from its previous perception as a low-end product, and is now seen as a potential growth engine for liquor companies [17][18]

Macro and Strategy - June financial data shows a significant rebound in credit, with new social financing reaching 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations of 3.71 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan [8][9][10] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic economic momentum as private sector balance sheet expansion improves [8][9] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and corporate loans has weakened, suggesting a shift in credit dynamics as local governments approach their annual debt targets [9][10] Retail Industry - The jewelry market is projected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 728 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% since 2019 [11][12] - The top five companies in the jewelry sector hold a market share of 41.4%, indicating increasing industry concentration as consumer preferences shift towards quality and design [11][12] - The retail sector is benefiting from the recent Amazon Prime Day, which generated an estimated $24.1 billion in sales, a 30% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential in cross-border e-commerce [13][14] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.92% increase, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.17 percentage points [14] - The liquor market is stabilizing, with major brands focusing on brand positioning and market health, while the overall demand remains under pressure [15][16] - Recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown resilience and potential for recovery [15][16] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to improve due to a shift towards healthy competition and urban renewal initiatives, with a focus on technological innovation [17][18] - Cement prices have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, while demand remains steady despite seasonal fluctuations [17][18] - Recommendations include companies like Three Trees and China National Building Material, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand [18] Computer Industry - The AI ASIC market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size growth from $14.8 billion in 2024 to $83.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.5% [19][20] - The price advantage of AI ASIC chips over GPUs is significant, with average prices of $5,236 compared to $8,001 for GPUs, making them more attractive for specific applications [19][20] - Companies like Google and Amazon are accelerating their development of ASIC chips, indicating strong future demand in this sector [21] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies, while exports face challenges due to high bases and tariff impacts [22][23] - White goods are seeing a slight increase in domestic sales, with air conditioning units showing a 9.5% growth in domestic shipments [22][23] - Recommendations include leading brands such as Midea and Gree, which are expected to maintain strong performance [22][23] Pharmaceutical Industry - Merck's acquisition of Verona for $10 billion aims to enhance its portfolio with a new COPD treatment, indicating strong growth potential in respiratory therapies [27][28] - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve a 102% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting robust operational performance [29] - The pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on innovative treatments and strategic acquisitions [27][28] Coal Industry - The coal market is expected to stabilize as domestic production increases and imports decrease, with a projected production of 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year [31][32] - Demand for coal is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, particularly for non-electric uses such as chemical production [33] - Recommendations include leading coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from market dynamics [34] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing positive momentum, with a 0.93% increase in stock performance, driven by strong demand in the optical and semiconductor segments [34] - The industry is expected to see significant catalysts in the coming months, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing advancements [34] - Companies involved in ASIC development are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in computing and data processing [34]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple liquor companies have reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, leading to a collective drop in stock prices for these companies [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Companies such as Jiu Gui Jiu, Jin Zhong Zi Jiu, Shun Xin Agriculture, and Shui Jing Fang have all issued profit warnings, indicating substantial losses or declines in earnings [1][4]. - Jiu Gui Jiu expects a net profit of only 8 million to 12 million yuan, a year-on-year drop of 90.1% to 93.4%, with revenue around 560 million yuan, down 43% [5][6]. - Shun Xin Agriculture anticipates a net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan, a decrease of 53.85% to 63.32% year-on-year [6][7]. - Shui Jing Fang projects a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 56.52%, with revenue of 1.498 billion yuan, a 12.84% decline [6][7]. - Jin Zhong Zi Jiu forecasts a net loss of 90 million to 60 million yuan, indicating a challenging financial situation [6][7]. - *ST Yan Shi expects a net loss of 50 million to 75 million yuan, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous year [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcements, liquor stocks collectively fell, with Jin Zhong Zi Jiu and Jiu Gui Jiu dropping over 4%, and other companies like Shui Jing Fang and Shun Xin Agriculture also experiencing declines [1][2]. - The overall liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with weak demand in consumption scenarios such as business banquets [4][8]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Despite the current downturn, some analysts suggest that the liquor sector may have limited downside potential and could present mid-term investment opportunities [8]. - Factors supporting this view include sufficient pre-receipts for leading liquor companies, which may limit the extent of profit declines, and an increasing dividend rate that enhances the attractiveness of leading companies' stock yields [8].