Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.13%. The North Star 50 Index, however, rose by 1.24% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.0417 trillion yuan, a decrease of 35 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,500 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials, beauty care, chemical products, humanoid robots, and agricultural machinery sectors saw the largest gains, while the electricity, insurance, liquor, port shipping, controllable nuclear fusion, and coal sectors experienced the most significant declines [2] - Notable stocks included PEEK materials concept stocks such as Juyuan Long (301131), Xinhang New Materials (301076), and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials (002915), which all hit the daily limit [2] - The beauty care sector saw strong afternoon performance with stocks like Marubi Biotechnology (603983) hitting the daily limit, while other notable gainers included Babi Co., Jinbo Biological, and Shanghai Jahwa (600315) [2] Stock Highlights - Step by Step (002251) and Maoye Commercial (600828) both achieved a "limit-up" performance in the afternoon, showcasing significant market interest [2] - The electricity sector faced a downturn, with stocks like Shaanxi Energy (000601), Leshan Electric Power (600644), and Xichang Electric Power (600505) hitting the daily limit down [2] - The liquor sector also lagged, with Yingjia Gongjiu (603198) hitting the daily limit down, and other major players like Yanghe Brewery (002304) and Gujing Gongjiu (000596) showing significant declines [2] Notable Trends - The "hot stock list" featured companies like Step by Step, Hongbaoli, and Maoye Commercial, with respective gains of 4.15%, 5.81%, and 10.02% [7] - The "strong wind direction list" highlighted sectors such as new energy vehicles, chemical products, and robotics, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [11][12][13] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 340.5 billion yuan for a 7-day term at an interest rate of 1.50% to maintain liquidity in the banking system [32] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China's service trade totaled 19,741.8 billion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [33]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth, alongside a significant dividend proposal for shareholders [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 23.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and a net profit of 5.5 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 4.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.8% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 770 million yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 9.1 billion yuan, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 50 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), with a total proposed dividend of 3.17 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 57.5%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. Product Performance - The revenue from aged raw liquor reached 18.1 billion yuan, a 17% increase year-on-year, with volume and price growth of 12% and 5% respectively [2]. - Revenue from Gujing Gongjiu was 2.2 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of 9% and 2% respectively [2]. - The company expects continued strong growth for its premium products, Gu8 and Gu16, driven by banquet demand and consumption upgrades in the province [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company maintained a gross margin of 79.9% in 2024 and 79.7% in Q1 2025, with slight year-on-year changes of +0.8 and -0.7 percentage points respectively [3]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were reduced in 2024, contributing to improved net profit margins of 23.4% and 25.5% for 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively [3]. Market Outlook - The company has a solid domestic market foundation and is optimistic about expanding its presence in external markets, with a focus on national growth [4]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 6.2 billion and 6.8 billion yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of 7.5 billion yuan for 2027 [4].

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.38%, and a net profit of 2.330 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations due to resilient income [1] Revenue Growth - The company's business in Anhui province continues to be a major contributor to revenue growth, with the annual raw liquor series showing ongoing structural upgrades [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 10.4% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from brands such as Gu 8 and Gu 16, while Gu 5 also performed well [1] - The revenue from the annual raw liquor series in the second half of 2024 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with a slight slowdown in volume growth but a continuation of structural upgrades [1] Cost Management - The company demonstrated strong cost control capabilities, with a net profit growth of 12.8% in Q1 2025, driven by a reduction in expense ratios [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 26.6%, and the management expense ratio fell by 0.5 percentage points to 4.4% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the 100-300 yuan price range in Anhui province, along with improved banquet demand due to the dual spring year effect [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to overall weak consumption, the company has lowered its 2025 profit forecast by 3% to 6.14 billion yuan and introduced a 2026 profit forecast of 6.77 billion yuan [3] - The target price remains at 226 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5x for 2025 and 17.6x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 35.2% from the current stock price [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 23.58 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.52 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.5%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 770 million yuan, a decrease of 0.7% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenues and net profits of 9.15 billion yuan and 2.33 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 10.4% and 12.8% [1] - The contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 were 3.67 billion yuan, an increase of 159 million yuan compared to the end of Q4 2024 [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth Analysis - The company focused on inventory control in Q4, leading to a stable but reduced growth rate. The revenue growth for the year was driven by the Year Original Series, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou, with increases of 17.3%, 11.2%, and 15.1% respectively [2] - The second half of 2024 saw a significant slowdown in growth rates for the Year Original Series, while Gujing Gongjiu benefited from the volume increase of products priced below 100 yuan [2] - Regional performance showed varied results, with North China, Central China, South China, and international markets growing by 7.4%, 17.8%, 11.2%, and 2.9% respectively for the year [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points due to a shift in product mix, while the net profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points [3] - The contract liabilities at the end of Q4 2024 increased by 81.6% to 3.52 billion yuan, indicating strong accumulation of resources for future growth [3] - The cash flow from operations showed a slight decline of 1.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but the contract liabilities increased by 4.5% compared to Q4 2024, aligning with revenue growth [3] Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company aims for stable growth in 2025 without setting specific growth targets, focusing on healthy operations and maintaining double-digit growth in Q1 2025 [4] - The product strategy includes enhancing the Gujing Gongjiu series and expanding the old porcelain and old glass products to drive additional revenue [4] - The company’s dividend payout ratio of 57.5% reflects its commitment to shareholder returns, enhancing its appeal to long-term investors [4] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is positioned for stable growth with a strong start in Q1 2025, and the valuation appears attractive with a projected EPS of 11.62 yuan for 2025, corresponding to a valuation of only 14 times [5] - The EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 11.62 and 12.98 yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 14.53 yuan, maintaining a target price of 300 yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates strong performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth despite external pressures, indicating a trend towards sustainable high-quality growth [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 235.8 billion and net profit of 55.2 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 16.4% and 20.2% respectively [1]. - Q4 2024 revenue and net profit showed a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a slight decrease of 0.7% respectively [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 91.5 billion and net profit of 23.3 billion, with year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 12.8% respectively [1][2]. Product and Market Performance - The product structure is expected to improve steadily in 2024, with notable performance from products such as Gu 7, Gu 8, and Gu 16 [1]. - In 2024, the company’s revenue from different product lines included 180.9 billion from aged raw liquor, 22.4 billion from Gujing Gongjiu, and 25.4 billion from other products, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 17.3%, 11.2%, and 15.1% [2]. - The company continues to focus on inventory reduction and sales activation in provincial markets, maintaining a competitive edge in Hefei while expanding in other regions [1][2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 increased by 0.8 percentage points to 79.9%, attributed to an upward shift in product structure [3]. - The sales and management expense ratios decreased by 0.6 percentage points each, resulting in a sales expense ratio of 26.2% and a management expense ratio of 6.1% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin slightly decreased to 79.7%, but the net profit margin improved to 25.5%, reflecting ongoing enhancements in profitability [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, with a focus on sustainable development and a strategy targeting national expansion and premium product lines [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been slightly adjusted to 11.49 and 12.85 respectively, with a projected CAGR of 14% for net profit, surpassing comparable companies [4]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 229.80, based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations, with revenue and net profit showing significant growth compared to the previous quarter and year [3][8]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025: Revenue reached 9.146 billion (+10.4%), with net profit at 2.330 billion (+12.8%) and non-recurring net profit at 2.312 billion (+12.8%) [1]. - Q4 2024: Revenue was 4.509 billion (+4.9%), net profit at 0.771 billion (-0.7%), and non-recurring net profit at 0.758 billion (+0.7%) [2]. - Full Year 2024: Revenue totaled 23.578 billion (+16.4%), net profit at 5.517 billion (+20.2%), and non-recurring net profit at 5.457 billion (+21.4%) [2]. Product and Regional Performance - Q1 2025: Continued strong performance in product segments, particularly for products 古8 and 古16, while 古20 remained stable due to industry demand fluctuations [4]. - In 2024, the company saw significant revenue growth in key products: 年份原浆 (+17.3%), 古井贡酒 (+11.2%), and 黄鹤楼 (+15.1%), with 年份原浆's revenue share in the liquor business increasing to 79.1% [5]. Profitability - Q1 2025: Gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 79.7%, attributed to increased channel expenses, while net profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 25.5% [6]. - Full Year 2024: Gross margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 79.9%, driven by product mix improvements [6]. Market Dynamics - Q1 2025: Revenue and contract liabilities decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, with cash sales down by 1.6%, indicating pressure on industry demand affecting channel collection [7]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting revenue growth of 10.4% to 32.609 billion by 2027, with net profit expected to grow by 13.3% to 8.236 billion [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][15]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its 2024 performance with a revenue of 23.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, and a net profit of 5.52 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [1][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 started strong with a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, representing a 10.4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in revenue and net profit through 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 25.54 billion yuan, 27.63 billion yuan, and 29.45 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.3%, 8.2%, and 6.6% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 23.58 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.52 billion yuan, marking a 20.2% increase year-on-year [1][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.51 billion yuan, with a slight decline in net profit by 0.7% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][4]. Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from the aged raw liquor segment reached 18.09 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 17.3% year-on-year, driven by both volume and price increases [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure, with significant contributions from its premium products, particularly in the domestic market [2][4]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the lower-priced bottled liquor segment to capture additional market share [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with a focus on marketing activities during key festive periods to boost sales [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 25.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.07 billion yuan, indicating a continued positive outlook despite a slight adjustment in previous forecasts [4][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the domestic market, particularly in the 100-600 yuan price range, leveraging its brand strength and distribution channels [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2025, driven by solid domestic demand and strategic market development [4][9] - The revenue targets for 2025-2027 are projected at 255.05 billion, 280.64 billion, and 321.06 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.17%, 10.03%, and 14.40% respectively [9][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 60.75 billion, 68.27 billion, and 80.37 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 10.11%, 12.38%, and 17.72% [9][11] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 167.11 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 883 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 5.29 billion shares, with 4.09 billion shares in circulation [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 36.6%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 16.01 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 235.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% [4][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 79.9%, with a net profit margin of 23.4% [4] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 31.72 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.49%, an increase of 5.66 percentage points year-on-year [4] Product and Channel Performance - For 2024, revenue from different product lines is expected to be 180.86 billion from aged original liquor, 22.41 billion from Gujing liquor, and 25.38 billion from other products [6] - Online and offline channels are projected to generate revenues of 7.72 billion and 228.06 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.81% and 16.81% [6] - The number of distributors increased to 5,089, up by 448 year-on-year, indicating a strengthening distribution network [6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated to be 11.49, 12.92, and 15.20 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [9][11] - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of around 22.4% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 21.3% by 2027 [11][14]

食品饮料 2025年04月28日 古井贡酒(000596.SZ) 2024顺利收官，分红稳定提升 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:167.11元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 公 司 报 告 【平安证券】古井贡酒（000596.SZ）*季报点评*环 比降速，稳扎稳打*推荐20241031 【平安证券】古井贡酒（000596.SZ）*半年报点评* 市场稳扎稳打，利润持续释放*推荐20240831 证券分析师 事项： 古井贡酒发布2024年年报与2025年1季报。2024年实现营收236亿元，同比 +16.4%，归母净利55亿元，同比+20.2%，其中4Q24实现营收45亿元，同比 +4.8%，归母净利7.7亿元，同比-0.7%，业绩符合快报。1Q25实现营收91亿 元，同比+10.4%，归母净利23.3亿元，同比+12.8%。公司拟每10股派发红利 50元（含税），2024年拟总分红31.7亿元，分红率57.5%。 平安观点： 司 年 报 点 评 研 究 报 告 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S106052203000 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 古井贡酒（000596） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：业绩符合 预期，延续韧性增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 20,254 | 23,578 | 26,252 | 29,270 | 32,550 | | 同比（%） | 21.18 | 16.41 | 11.34 | 11.50 | 11.20 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,589 | 5,517 | 6,199 | 7,013 | 7,826 | | 同比（%） | 46.01 | 20.22 | 12.35 | 13.14 | 11.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 8.68 | 10.44 | 11.73 | 13.27 | 14.81 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 19.25 | 16.01 | 14.25 | 12.59 | 11.29 | [Table_ ...