Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price maintained [6][17]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a release of pressure due to a slowdown, with a continued logic for net profit margin improvement [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the Anhui liquor market, with a solid domestic foundation, and is preparing for a strong performance in the upcoming peak season [4]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 4.734 billion, 1.332 billion, and 1.315 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 14.23%, 11.63%, and 11.81% [1]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 80.24% and 29.33%, reflecting a decrease of 0.26 and an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the revenue from year-on-year raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou was 10.959 billion, 1.184 billion, and 1.497 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.59%, -4.39%, and +6.68% [2]. - The average price per ton for year-on-year raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou was 235,200, 60,300, and 98,400 yuan/ton, showing year-on-year declines of 8.31%, 12.49%, and 4.84% [2]. Market and Channel Insights - In H1 2025, the revenue from North China, Central China, and South China was 8.09 billion, 12.297 billion, and 7.68 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -27.04%, +3.60%, and -5.84% respectively, indicating a solid performance in Central China [3]. - The number of distributors in North China, Central China, and South China increased by 90, 161, and 25 to 1,378, 3,009, and 655 respectively, with average distributor scale changes of -31.80%, -1.94%, and -9.43% [3]. Cost and Cash Flow Analysis - The sales expense ratio decreased year-on-year by 1.86 percentage points to 22.78%, attributed to improved cost efficiency due to scale effects [4]. - The operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 2.309 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.45% [4]. Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits attributable to the parent to be 5.620 billion, 6.002 billion, and 6.810 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 6.299 billion, 7.207 billion, and 8.104 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 13.88 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.54%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.662 billion yuan, up 2.49% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.626 billion yuan, an increase of 2.42% year-on-year. However, in Q2 2025, total revenue decreased by 14.23% year-on-year to 4.734 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 11.63% year-on-year to 1.332 billion yuan [2][6][10]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from the year-round original series was 10.959 billion yuan, a growth of 1.59% year-on-year. The revenue from Gujing Gongjiu was 1.184 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, while revenue from Huanghelou and others was 1.497 billion yuan, up 6.68% year-on-year. The company focused on destocking in Q2, leading to an overall slowdown in growth [10]. - Regionally, revenue from North China was 0.809 billion yuan, down 27.04% year-on-year, while South China revenue was 0.768 billion yuan, down 5.84% year-on-year. Central China revenue was 12.297 billion yuan, up 3.60% year-on-year [10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for H1 2025 increased by 0.5 percentage points to 26.38%, while the gross margin decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 79.87%. The expense ratio decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 28.15%, with specific changes in sales expense ratio (-0.86 percentage points), management expense ratio (-0.02 percentage points), R&D expense ratio (+0.05 percentage points), and financial expense ratio (-0.23 percentage points) [10]. Future Earnings Projections - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 10.55 yuan and 11.45 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16 and 15 times based on the current stock price [10].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing, with a total production of 1.9159 million kiloliters in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [1] - Sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, while profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year [1] - Over 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with an average inventory turnover period of 900 days, up 10% from the previous year [1] Industry Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported a decline in revenue, accounting for 68%, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [2] - The market is increasingly concentrated among leading companies, with the top six accounting for 47% of revenue in 2024, up 13 percentage points from five years ago [2] - The median revenue growth rate for companies with over 10 billion yuan in revenue was 2.36%, while those below 10 billion saw a median decline of 16.89% [2] Price Trends - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with the previous "volume reduction, price increase" model failing, leading to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [2] - The wholesale price index for liquor has been declining from September 2024 to August 2025, affecting even premium brands [2] Contract Liabilities - Total contract liabilities for 19 listed liquor companies reached 37.497 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.01 billion yuan year-on-year [4] - Guizhou Moutai saw its contract liabilities drop from 9.993 billion yuan to 5.507 billion yuan, a decline of 44.89%, reflecting adjustments in direct sales channel allocations [4] - Eight companies reported a reduction in contract liabilities of over 15%, with most being smaller firms [5] Company-Specific Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, with contract liabilities at 5.507 billion yuan [6] - Other companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye also reported varying revenue changes, with Wuliangye's contract liabilities at 10.077 billion yuan [6] - Ancient Liquor, a regional representative, experienced a revenue growth of 10.38% in Q1 but a decline of 14.23% in Q2, indicating a significant market shift [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Gujing Gongjiu's performance in Q2 2025 shows a slight decrease in gross margin and a mixed performance across different regions and product lines, while the company is actively managing its growth strategy to stabilize its performance [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 80.24% due to changes in product structure [1] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 2 percentage points to 22.78%, primarily due to a reduction in promotional expenses compared to the previous year [1] - The management expense ratio increased by 1 percentage point to 5.75% [1] - The net profit margin increased by 1 percentage point to 29.33% [1] Revenue Analysis - In H1 2025, the company's liquor revenue increased by 2% to 13.64 billion yuan, with specific brand performances as follows: - Year-round original liquor revenue increased by 2% to 10.96 billion yuan - Gujing Gongjiu revenue decreased by 4% to 1.18 billion yuan - Yellow Crane Tower and other brands increased by 7% to 1.50 billion yuan [1] Regional Performance - Revenue by region in H1 2025 showed the following changes: - North China: decreased by 27% to 0.81 billion yuan - Central China: increased by 4% to 12.30 billion yuan - South China: decreased by 6% to 0.77 billion yuan - International: decreased by 54% to 0.005 billion yuan - The Central China region demonstrated relatively stable performance, with further expansion of distributor networks outside the province [1] Strategic Response - In response to industry challenges, the company is proactively managing its growth by focusing on "driving sales, reducing inventory, expanding channels, and stabilizing prices," resulting in steady performance amidst pressures [1] Investment Rating - The report maintains a "buy" investment rating for the company [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient performance with steady growth despite a slowdown in revenue [1] - The company is actively managing its operations to alleviate pressure from declining prices and is focusing on maintaining profitability [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 138.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36.62 billion yuan, up 2% [4] - In Q2 2025, total revenue decreased by 14% to 47.34 billion yuan, with net profit down 12% to 13.32 billion yuan [4] Cost Control and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 80.24%, primarily due to changes in product mix; however, the net profit margin increased by 1 percentage point to 29.33% [5] - The company reduced its sales expense ratio by 2 percentage points to 22.78% due to lower promotional spending [5] Product Performance - The company's white liquor revenue increased by 2% to 136.40 billion yuan in H1 2025, with varying performance across brands [6] - The overall trend shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price, particularly affecting the mid-range products [6] Market Performance - The company experienced a 40% year-on-year increase in online channel revenue, while offline channel revenue decreased by 1% [7] - The performance in the Central China market remained stable, while adjustments were made in markets outside the province [7] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 10.13, 10.85, and 11.93 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of 206.80 CNY, corresponding to a 20.36X valuation for 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 13.88 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 0.54%, and net profit at 3.66 billion CNY, a growth of 2.49% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 4.73 billion CNY, down 14.22% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.33 billion CNY, down 11.68% [1][2]. - The company’s core product, "Nianfen Yuanjiang," continues to show steady growth, while "Gu Jing Gong Jiu" experienced a slight decline in revenue [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company’s revenue from its main business segments was 13.64 billion CNY for liquor, 0.46 million CNY for hotels, and 1.94 billion CNY for other businesses, with year-on-year changes of +1.57%, +10.44%, and -42.1% respectively [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 80.23%, showing a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 28.12%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to experience revenue growth rates of -3.9%, 5.0%, and 8.1% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of -2.7%, 6.6%, and 9.6% for the same period [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant divergence, with leading companies showing growth while others, like Zhenjiu Lidu, face substantial declines in revenue and profit [2][4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Liquor Companies - In the first half of 2025, 22 listed liquor companies reported a total revenue of approximately 242.4 billion yuan and a net profit of about 95.1 billion yuan [4]. - Six companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, achieved both revenue and net profit growth, with Kweichow Moutai reporting revenue of 89.389 billion yuan, up 9.1%, and net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.9% [2]. - Conversely, Zhenjiu Lidu saw a significant decline, with revenue dropping to 2.497 billion yuan, down 39.6%, and adjusted net profit falling to 613 million yuan, down 39.3% [2][6]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by high channel inventory, leading companies to adopt inventory control and price stabilization strategies [3]. - Macro-economic pressures and limited consumption scenarios have reduced consumer purchasing willingness, with liquor sales dropping 15% year-on-year during the 2025 Spring Festival, and mid-to-high-end sales declining by 20% [3]. - Intense competition and price wars among companies, particularly among smaller enterprises, are compressing profit margins and reducing overall profitability in the industry [3][5]. Group 3: Zhenjiu Lidu's Struggles - Zhenjiu Lidu is facing severe challenges, including excessive inventory turnover days at 855, far exceeding the healthy range of 450-700 days [6]. - The company relies heavily on its Zhenjiu brand, with other brands contributing minimally to revenue, and has seen a consistent decline in core product sales over the past four years [6][7]. - The decline in sales reflects weakened product competitiveness and shrinking consumption scenarios, with the company struggling to adapt its product structure and marketing strategies [7]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Zhenjiu Lidu is attempting to navigate its challenges by launching new products, such as the "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu," priced at 600 yuan, targeting middle-class families and small business owners [8]. - The company is also implementing a "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance" strategy to expand its dealer network and create a broad channel ecosystem [8]. - Additionally, Zhenjiu Lidu is entering the craft beer market with its "Niu Shi" brand, seeking to establish a second growth curve amid the liquor industry's stagnation [9][10]. Group 5: Market Entry Challenges - The craft beer market is highly competitive, dominated by established players like China Resources and Budweiser, posing significant challenges for new entrants like Zhenjiu Lidu [11]. - Transitioning from liquor to beer requires Zhenjiu Lidu to reconfigure its sales channels, as beer distribution is more diverse and includes restaurants and bars, unlike the traditional liquor sales model [12]. - While seeking new growth avenues is a reasonable strategy, the differences in product, channel, and consumer demographics between liquor and beer present substantial hurdles for successful cross-industry expansion [12].

Group 1 - The company Gujinggong Liquor responded to investor inquiries on September 10, indicating that the shareholder register has not yet been issued by China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited as of September 10, 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The company, Gujing Gongjiu, reported that as of August 29, 2025, the number of shareholders is 48,394 [2]

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a slight increase of 0.53% on September 10, with *ST Yanshi leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - The following companies showed notable performance: - *ST Yanshi: Closed at 6.54, up 1.87% with a trading volume of 59,000 shares and a transaction value of 38.78 million [1] - Yingjia Gongjiu: Closed at 45.93, up 1.50% with a trading volume of 145,300 shares and a transaction value of 670 million [1] - Gujing Gongjiu: Closed at 174.37, up 1.40% with a trading volume of 51,700 shares and a transaction value of 900 million [1] - Jiu Gui Jiu: Closed at 69.47, up 1.14% with a trading volume of 125,110 shares and a transaction value of 1.741 billion [1] - Kweichow Moutai: Closed at 1522.01, up 1.13% with a trading volume of 49,700 shares and a transaction value of 7.541 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 896 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 148 million [2] - The following companies had significant capital flow: - Kweichow Moutai: Main fund net inflow of 827 million, retail fund net outflow of 372,700 [3] - Jiu Gui Jiu: Main fund net inflow of 54.21 million, retail fund net outflow of 91.93 million [3] - Yingjia Gongjiu: Main fund net inflow of 31.79 million, retail fund net outflow of 31.19 million [3]