Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector experienced a significant collective surge on January 29, 2026, with 18 out of 20 stocks reaching their daily limit, resulting in a total market value increase of over 252.6 billion yuan, primarily driven by the performance of Kweichow Moutai, which alone saw a market value increase of over 140 billion yuan [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, 2026, the white liquor stocks initially opened flat but later exhibited a strong upward trend, with all 20 stocks showing a "climbing" pattern throughout the day [3][6]. - Kweichow Moutai and Shunxin Agriculture, while not hitting the limit, recorded significant gains of 8.61% and 9.96%, respectively, with Moutai's stock closing at 1437.72 yuan per share [5][6]. - The surge in the white liquor sector was unexpected for investors, who expressed surprise at the sudden rise after a prolonged period of low performance [6][10]. Group 2: Industry Turning Point - The collective rise in white liquor stocks has led to speculation about a potential turning point for the industry, attributed to factors such as the price increase of Moutai and the upcoming Spring Festival consumption peak [7][10]. - The price of Moutai's original box has risen to 1610 yuan per bottle, indicating a recovery from previous lows [7][9]. - Analysts from CITIC Securities have optimistic expectations for the Spring Festival sales, predicting stable sales performance due to various favorable factors [7][10]. Group 3: Valuation Recovery Logic - The current valuation of white liquor stocks is at a low point, with the China Securities White Liquor Index reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.85, close to historical lows [10][11]. - The market's expectation for a rebound is growing, especially as leading white liquor companies have adjusted their profit forecasts for 2025-2026, enhancing the perceived safety margin for investors [10][11]. - Structural changes within the industry, such as inventory clearance and price control mechanisms, are crucial for sustaining the recovery of white liquor stocks [11][12][16]. Group 4: Structural Changes - The pressure on leading liquor companies regarding inventory has eased, with companies like Wuliangye managing to reduce channel inventory to 1-2 months [11][12]. - Price control reforms are being implemented, with Moutai and Wuliangye adopting strategies to stabilize prices and support distributors [12][16]. - The effectiveness of these structural reforms will be essential for validating the recovery of demand in the white liquor sector [11][17].

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a significant surge on January 29, with stocks rising across the board, led by Kweichow Moutai, which closed at 1437.72 yuan, up 8.61% from the previous trading day, marking the highest single-day increase in nearly 16 months [1] - Kweichow Moutai's market capitalization returned to 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in investor confidence [1] - More than ten A-share listed liquor companies, including Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, reached their daily price limits, while Hong Kong-listed liquor company Zhenjiu Lidu saw a single-day increase of over 12% [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment phase, with a bottoming process being the norm, and signs of recovery are not yet evident [3] - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday presents a significant opportunity for liquor consumption, and the industry is encouraged to leverage this key consumption period to enhance market investment and brand promotion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor stocks experienced a significant decline, with major brands such as Tianyoude, Yanghe, and Shunxin all dropping over 5% in value, indicating a bearish trend in the sector [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianyoude Liquor saw a decrease of 5.81%, with a total market capitalization of 4.427 billion [2] - Yanghe shares fell by 5.67%, bringing its market value to 85 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 7.10% [2] - Shunxin Agriculture dropped by 5.53%, with a market cap of 11.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 2.53% [2] - Other notable declines include Kuaizijiao (-4.95%, 17.8 billion), Yilite (-4.74%, 6.658 billion), and Jianshiyuan (-4.66%, 42.1 billion) [2] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Guizhou Moutai also experienced declines of 3.93% and 1.90%, respectively, with market caps of 413.1 billion and 1.7663 trillion [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [4]. Core Insights - The liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment period, but recent positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors, along with the market-oriented transformation of Moutai, are stimulating incremental demand and driving up prices, leading to a valuation recovery [2]. - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those expected to clear inventory like Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jianshiyuan, Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Jiuye, and Jinhui Jiu [4]. Summary by Sections Market Environment - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, and policies are becoming more favorable. The liquor industry is a typical cyclical sector, with market pricing influenced by both internal demand and real estate conditions. The government has prioritized boosting domestic demand as a key task for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [4]. - The real estate market is gradually bottoming out after years of adjustment, with recent government actions aimed at stabilizing market expectations and improving conditions [4]. Moutai's Market Transformation - Moutai's market-oriented reform has sparked incremental demand, with significant attention on liquor sales during the Spring Festival. Moutai has introduced various products on its iMoutai platform, leading to a surge in online purchases and stable price performance [4]. - As of January 29, Moutai's price has increased by over 1,600 RMB, with transaction prices exceeding 1,700 RMB, indicating successful price-volume strategies [4]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with liquidity improvements and expectations likely to catalyze stock prices. The report anticipates that if prices stabilize, the pressure on stock prices will lessen, and further positive signals from policies could enhance stock performance [4]. - The report includes earnings forecasts for key liquor companies, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for Moutai from 2024 to 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to decrease from 21 to 19 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a structural price differentiation, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products showing a slight increase, driven by strong demand for premium products like Moutai [1][3]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,892 yuan, an increase of 41 yuan from the previous day, marking a new high in the last five days [1][4]. - Among the top ten products, four saw price increases, five decreased, and one remained stable, indicating a clear divergence in market performance [1][4]. - Moutai products are leading the price increases, with the price of Moutai flying liquor rising by 38 yuan per bottle and premium Moutai by 18 yuan per bottle, supported by pre-festival demand [1][4][6]. Individual Product Performance - The price changes for specific products include: - Moutai flying liquor: 1,665 yuan, up 38 yuan [6] - Premium Moutai: 2,369 yuan, up 18 yuan [6] - Wuliangye: 800 yuan, up 3 yuan [6] - Qinghua Fen 20: 372 yuan, up 1 yuan [6] - Xijiu Junpin: 637 yuan, down 7 yuan [7] - Qinghua Lang: 714 yuan, down 7 yuan [7] - Gujing Gonggu 20: 510 yuan, down 1 yuan [7] - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun: 389 yuan, down 1 yuan [7] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 579 yuan, unchanged [7]. Stock Market Reaction - The A-share market saw a significant rise in liquor stocks, with Moutai shares increasing by 8.61% to 1,437.72 yuan per share, reaching a peak of 1,445 yuan during trading, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a year [3][8]. - The total market capitalization of Moutai reached 1.8 trillion yuan, with a trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan on that day [3][8]. Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a structural price differentiation, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products showing a recent increase, driven primarily by the recovery of high-end products like Moutai [1][4]. Price Trends - The total price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,892 yuan, an increase of 41 yuan from the previous day, marking a new high in the last five days [1][4]. - Among the top ten products, four saw price increases, five decreased, and one remained stable, indicating a mixed market response [1][4]. - Moutai products are leading the price increases, with Feitian Moutai rising by 38 yuan per bottle and premium Moutai by 18 yuan per bottle, supported by demand for high-end banquets and gifts [1][4][6]. Individual Product Performance - The following products experienced price changes: - Feitian Moutai: 1,665 yuan/bottle, up 38 yuan - Premium Moutai: 2,369 yuan/bottle, up 18 yuan - Wuliangye: 800 yuan/bottle, up 3 yuan - Qinghua Fen 20: 372 yuan/bottle, up 1 yuan - Guojiao 1573: 857 yuan/bottle, down 3 yuan - Xijiu Junpin: 637 yuan/bottle, down 7 yuan - Qinghua Lang: 714 yuan/bottle, down 7 yuan - Ancient Well Tribute: 510 yuan/bottle, down 1 yuan - Crystal Jian Nan Chun: 389 yuan/bottle, down 1 yuan - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 579 yuan/bottle, unchanged [2][6][7]. Stock Market Reaction - The A-share market saw a significant rise in liquor stocks, with Moutai shares increasing by 8.61% to 1,437.72 yuan per share, reaching a peak of 1,445 yuan during trading, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a year [3][8]. - The total market capitalization of Moutai reached 1.8 trillion yuan, with a trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan on that day [3][8]. Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [3][8]. - The pricing data is weighted based on actual transaction volumes to reflect the true retail prices of Moutai products [3][8]. Regulatory Response - The iMoutai platform has responded to the sale of "purchase外挂" software, which disrupts market order and poses risks to consumers, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining a fair market environment [9][10].

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious optimism for February, with expectations of a slow bull market continuing, despite a high-level narrow fluctuation in indices [6][3] - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks have shown strong performance in January, particularly in the gold and non-ferrous metals sectors, with signs of stabilization and rebound in the consumer sector, especially in food and beverage [6][3] - The report highlights a significant pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026, driven by underestimations of inventory and capacity reduction, suggesting a potential price recovery due to structural supply shortages [6][3] Market Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the food and beverage sector, which are expected to continue their rebound [6][3] - It suggests that the market's risk appetite and evaluation are shifting, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks valued between 10 billion to 50 billion being relatively favored [6][3] - The report recommends focusing on stocks with improvement logic or those in significant performance downgrades, particularly in the restaurant supply chain, dairy farming, regional liquor, and mid-to-high-end liquor [6][3] Industry Analysis - The report notes that the pig farming industry is experiencing a structural supply shortage, which is expected to limit the downward price potential for pigs, with a price turning point anticipated in Q2 2026 [6][3] - It highlights that the average weight of pigs post-slaughter is at a historical low, indicating a potential for price recovery as inventory levels are replenished [6][3] - The report identifies specific companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs as favorable investment targets within the pig farming sector [6][3]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Cheers to the Chinese Economy - Entrepreneur Night" was held on January 29 in Beijing, highlighting the importance of camaraderie and celebration in business and life [1][2]. Group 1 - The renowned brand strategy expert Li Guangdou emphasized that the happiest moments in life involve good food, good drink, and good friends [1][2]. - Li Guangdou referenced the classic novel "Journey to the West," noting that the character Tang Seng drank alcohol on three occasions, illustrating the cultural significance of sharing drinks [1][2]. - The event featured the ancient liquor brand Gujinggongjiu, with Li Guangdou wishing that the brand would accompany Tang Seng and his disciples on their journey, symbolizing success and enjoyment [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is experiencing significant stock price increases, with several companies reaching their daily limit up. Group 1: Stock Performance - Shui Jing Fang, Shede Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Jiu Gui Liquor, and Jin Hui Liquor all hit the daily limit up [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is approaching the daily limit up [1] - Jinzhongzi Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai all saw stock increases exceeding 7% [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - There is an intensified divergence among mid-to-high-end baijiu products, with no discount contraction observed in food and beverage categories [1]. - The report highlights that the wholesale prices of various baijiu brands have shown stability or slight changes, with some brands experiencing price increases while others remain flat or decrease [3][4][35]. - Discounts on representative products in condiments, liquid milk, and soft drinks have widened compared to the end of December, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [19][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) and Moutai 1935 are reported at 1600, 1580, and 630 yuan respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and -10 yuan compared to last month [35]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 830 yuan, reflecting a +10 yuan increase from the previous month [35]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 remains at 850 yuan, unchanged from last month [35]. Discount Trends - The average discount rate for condiments decreased from 87.1% to 85.0%, while liquid milk discounts fell from 62.8% to 61.4% [19][22]. - In contrast, discounts for beer, infant formula, and convenience foods remained stable, with beer discounts slightly increasing from 80.3% to 80.7% [20][22][32]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Qingdao Beer - China Feihe - Others [1].