证券日报网讯古井贡酒（000596）9月16日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年9月10日，公 司的股东人数为46，446户。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Gujing Gongjiu, reported a slight increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in a challenging market, but underlying issues such as weak growth, structural imbalances, and external expansion challenges are evident [1][6][7] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.54%, and a net profit of 3.66 billion yuan, up 2.49% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter saw a significant decline in revenue to 4.73 billion yuan, down 14.23% year-on-year, and net profit dropped to 1.33 billion yuan, down 11.63% [2] - The company's net profit margin improved to 26.38%, up 0.50 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced sales expenses [3] Product Structure - The company experienced a "volume increase, price decrease" trend, with total sales volume reaching 81,400 tons, up 10.67%, but the average ex-factory price fell by 8.22% to 167,500 yuan per ton [3] - The core product "Nianfen Yuanjiang" generated revenue of 10.96 billion yuan, with a sales volume increase of 10.80%, but the price per ton decreased by 8.31% to 235,200 yuan [3] Regional Performance - The company’s revenue from the Central China region was 12.30 billion yuan, accounting for 88.60% of total revenue, reflecting strong brand presence in its home market [4] - Revenue from the North China region fell by 27.04% to 0.81 billion yuan, and South China revenue decreased by 5.84% to 0.77 billion yuan, indicating challenges in expanding beyond its home market [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on online sales, which reached 0.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.19%, while offline sales declined by 0.67% [5] - New product launches aimed at younger consumers, such as the 26° "Light Gu20," reflect the company's efforts to innovate and adapt to market changes [5] Overall Assessment - The company's performance shows a complex situation of apparent stability but underlying concerns regarding sustainable growth, reliance on internal adjustments, and challenges in expanding its market presence [6][7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Baijiu Industry - The baijiu sector has reached a bottom in fundamentals, with valuations at low levels and market expectations recovering. Demand-side pressures are dissipating, and seasonal catalysts are expected to boost interest in brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Zhenjiu Shede for short-term opportunities, while Moutai, Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are recommended for long-term investment [1][2][4] Beverage and Snack Industry - The beverage sector is favorable for leading companies such as Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, while the snack sector shows good alignment between valuation and growth potential. Key products to watch for Q4 catalysts include Weijia and Yanjinpuzi, with Yili identified as a bottom-value recovery company [1][5] Whisky Industry - In 2024, whisky imports are expected to decline by approximately 40%, with high-aged whisky's share also decreasing. Instant consumption channels now account for over 30% of sales, with dining and home consumption being the primary scenarios [3][13] Beer Industry - Both Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer have seen their valuations drop to attractive levels, with Yanjing at 23-24 times earnings and Zhujiang at 21 times, both reflecting 2025 valuation levels. These companies are noted for their growth potential driven by flagship products [19] Company-Specific Insights Zhenjiu Lid - Zhenjiu Lid has launched an equity payment plan to bind the interests of alliance merchants, with the first quarter's alliance contributing approximately 320 million yuan in revenue. The acupuncture business is projected to account for 5% of the company's total revenue in 2024 [6][8][7] Baijun Co., Ltd. - Baijun's major shareholder transferred 6% of shares to Homa's Liu Jianbo, which is expected to empower Baijun in business expansion and overseas market development. The shareholding structure remains stable, providing opportunities for deeper collaboration [12] Restaurant Chain Industry - The restaurant chain sector has shown signs of recovery since Q2 2025, with stable performance from leading companies like Lihua Bao and Baba Foods. The frozen food leader Anjins has also shown significant improvement in revenue [10][11] Zhujiang Beer - Zhujiang Beer is focusing on expanding its market share through its flagship product, Pure Draft 97, while also launching new products to maintain competitiveness. The company is developing its "15th Five-Year Plan" for future growth [15][17][18] H&H International Holdings - H&H International expects high single-digit revenue growth for the year, with EBITDA margins around 15%. The health supplement business is performing well, while the milk powder segment anticipates low double-digit growth [20] Jianhe Health - Jianhe Health's fundamentals are improving, driven by new consumer customer acquisition in China and profitability improvements in its overseas subsidiaries. The company is expected to see good performance in Q3 due to new orders [21][22] Additional Insights - The baijiu sector is currently viewed as a mid-to-long-term value investment opportunity, with market expectations warming up as demand-side pressures ease [2] - The innovative model of the Wan Shang Alliance is expected to have a significant impact on the company's financials, with a focus on long-term development and binding interests with distributors [9]

Group 1 - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, prompting companies to reflect on how to appeal to the new generation of consumers [1] - Major liquor companies, including Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, are launching low or ultra-low alcohol products in response to changing consumer preferences [1] - The president of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, Song Shuyu, stated that the current low-alcohol trend cannot yet be considered a true trend, emphasizing the need for deeper understanding of young consumers' preferences [1] Group 2 - Luzhou Laojiao announced the successful development of a 28-degree liquor product, while Gujing Gongjiu launched a 26-degree product, and Wuliangye and Shede Liquor introduced 29-degree products [1] - The industry is entering an era characterized by rational attitudes, consumption, and behavior regarding drinking, necessitating new strategies for engagement with younger consumers [1] - The upcoming 23rd China International Wine Expo will shift focus from product display to consumer interaction and exploration of new consumption scenarios, including the introduction of trendy drinking culture [2]

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on September 15, with Gujing Gongjiu leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63% to 13005.77 [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shede Liquor saw an increase of 1.57%, closing at 67.19, with a trading volume of 125,000 shares and a transaction value of 834 million yuan [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu rose by 0.77% to 207.85, with a trading volume of 42,300 shares and a transaction value of 880 million yuan [1] - Guizhou Moutai slightly decreased by 0.06%, closing at 1515.10, with a trading volume of 25,800 shares and a transaction value of 3.902 billion yuan [1] - The largest decline was seen in Gujing Gongjiu, which fell by 1.48% to 168.08, with a trading volume of 31,000 shares and a transaction value of 523 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 835 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 462 million yuan [2] - The data indicates that speculative funds had a net inflow of 373 million yuan [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Shede Liquor had a net inflow of 25.62 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 23.01 million yuan [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu saw a net inflow of 8.02 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 25.37 million yuan [3] - Gujing Gongjiu experienced a net outflow of 800,000 yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 490,000 yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Gujing Gongjiu's Q2 2025 operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items are 4.734 billion, 1.332 billion, and 1.315 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 14.23%, 11.63%, and 11.81% [1] - The proportion of aged original liquor remains stable, while the price per ton across various series is declining [1] - In terms of market performance, H1 2025 revenues in North China, Central China, and South China are 0.809 billion, 12.297 billion, and 0.768 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.04%, +3.60%, and -5.84%, indicating that Central China experienced growth, likely due to a solid channel base in Anhui [1] Group 2 - As a leading brand in Huizhou liquor, the company has a solid base within the province, and the deceleration in Q2 2025 is seen as a pressure release for future peak season efforts [1] - Considering the overall industry environment, the company has adjusted its profit forecast downwards, expecting net profits attributable to the parent for 2025-2027 to be 5.620 billion, 6.002 billion, and 6.810 billion yuan respectively, revised from previous estimates of 6.299 billion, 7.207 billion, and 8.104 billion yuan [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gujing Gongjiu's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.10% and a total market capitalization of 88.281 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance in the market [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Gujing Gongjiu reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.662 billion yuan, up by 2.49% [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Gujing Gongjiu has distributed a total of 12.612 billion yuan in dividends, with 7.136 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of August 29, 2025, the number of shareholders for Gujing Gongjiu decreased by 14.34% to 48,400, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2]. - The stock has experienced a net outflow of 69.6063 million yuan in principal funds recently, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds, with the second-largest being the China Securities White Wine Index A, holding 13.63 million shares, an increase of 1.8024 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, prompting major companies to reflect on how to appeal to the new generation of consumers, leading to the introduction of lower-alcohol products [1][3]. Industry Trends - Major liquor companies, including Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, have launched low or ultra-low alcohol products in response to changing consumer preferences [1]. - The industry is currently in a "three rationality" era, characterized by rational attitudes towards drinking, rational consumption, and rational drinking behavior [3]. Consumer Insights - The industry needs to better understand the preferences and behaviors of younger consumers, as current research on their drinking habits is lacking [3]. - Young consumers are not averse to alcohol but are disinterested in traditional drinking culture [3]. Event Adjustments - The upcoming 23rd China International Wine Expo will shift its focus from product display to consumer interaction and exploration of new consumption scenarios, including the introduction of trendy drinking culture elements [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the liquor sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant month-on-month sales growth for Moutai in August, with terminal sales in various regions increasing by 15%-35%. It suggests that while there may be pressure on sales during the upcoming double festival, there is potential for improvement, presenting a configuration opportunity for the sector [1][5]. - The consumer goods sector continues to embrace new consumption trends, with strong performance in soft drinks, beer, and condiments, while the liquor sector shows signs of pressure with noticeable deceleration in performance [1][2]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading brands in the liquor sector, such as Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, while also highlighting consumer goods companies like Weidong, Wanchen Group, and Dongpeng Beverage [1][2][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's sales in August showed significant month-on-month growth, with terminal sales increasing by 15%-35% across multiple regions. The report anticipates pressure on sales during the double festival but expects a month-on-month improvement, indicating potential configuration opportunities [1][5]. - The report recommends prioritizing leading brands in the liquor sector, specifically Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting brands with strong market share and lower valuations such as Zhenjiu Lidu and Luzhou Laojiao [1][13]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is advised to continue capitalizing on new consumption trends. Despite recent adjustments in the new consumption sector due to capital rotation and high valuation pressures, the long-term trend remains positive with clear opportunities for sustainable investment [2][17]. - Recommended stocks include Wanchen Group, New Dairy, Weidong, and Qingdao Beer, among others, while also highlighting potential stocks like Jindaiwei and Tea Baidao [2][17]. Market Performance - From September 8 to September 12, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.38%, with the meat products sector (+2.79%) and liquor sector (+1.73%) leading the gains, while beer (-0.98%) and other liquor categories (-0.83%) experienced declines [2][22]. - The report notes that the liquor sector's valuation has adjusted, with the liquor sector currently at 19.82 times earnings, indicating a potential for value investment [27].

Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 4.734 billion, 1.332 billion, and 1.315 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 14.23%, 11.63%, and 11.81% [1] Revenue Composition - In H1 2025, the revenue from year-round raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou & others were 10.959 billion, 1.184 billion, and 1.497 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.59%, -4.39%, and +6.68% [2] - The proportion of year-round raw liquor remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02 percentage points to 80.34% [2] - The average price per ton for year-round raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou was 235,200, 60,300, and 98,400 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 8.31%, 12.49%, and 4.84% [2] Market and Channel Insights - In H1 2025, revenue in North China, Central China, and South China was 0.809 billion, 12.297 billion, and 0.768 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.04%, +3.60%, and -5.84% [2] - The Central China region experienced growth, attributed to a solid channel foundation in Anhui [2] - The number of distributors in North China, Central China, and South China increased by 90, 161, and 25 to 1,378, 3,009, and 655 respectively, while the average distributor scale was 587,300, 4,086,900, and 1,172,800 yuan/distributor, showing year-on-year declines of 31.80%, 1.94%, and 9.43% [2] Profitability and Cost Management - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin and net margin changed by -0.26 and +1.19 percentage points to 80.24% and 29.33% respectively [3] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 1.86 percentage points to 22.78%, attributed to improved cost efficiency due to scale effects [3] - The company's operating cash flow in Q2 2025 was 2.309 billion yuan, an increase of 48.45% [3] Investment Outlook - The company, as a leading player in the Huizhou liquor market, has a solid foundation in its home province and is preparing for a strong performance in the upcoming peak season [3] - Due to the overall industry environment, the company's profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 5.620 billion, 6.002 billion, and 6.810 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 6.299 billion, 7.207 billion, and 8.104 billion yuan [3]