Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently in a period of adjustment, with leading companies focusing on "steady development" as their primary strategy amidst challenges such as slowing consumer demand and intensified competition [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Dividends - Major liquor companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanghe are showing a trend of increasing dividend amounts and ratios, reflecting their strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [7][8]. - Moutai plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 646.72 billion yuan for 2024, with a distribution rate of around 80% [7]. - Wuliangye announced a record high total dividend of 223 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend yield of 4.9%, and committed to maintaining a dividend ratio of no less than 70% from 2024 to 2026 [7][8]. - Luzhou Laojiao has also set a three-year cash dividend plan, with rates increasing from 65% to 75% over the next three years [8]. Group 2: Strategic Focus and Market Positioning - The keyword for the liquor industry in 2025 is "stability," as companies prioritize maintaining market share and quality over rapid growth [3][6]. - Wuliangye reported a revenue growth of 7.09% and a net profit growth of 5.44% for 2024, continuing its trend of steady growth for ten consecutive years [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu emphasized the shift in competition from speed to quality, focusing on stabilizing markets, channels, and prices [5]. Group 3: International Expansion - Moutai's international revenue reached 5.189 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant milestone in its global strategy, which includes transitioning from product export to brand and cultural promotion [9]. - Wuliangye has successfully opened 21 new overseas markets and established 29 new distributors, enhancing its international presence [10]. - Fenjiu is implementing a differentiated international strategy, successfully filling market gaps in 11 countries and increasing its overseas revenue by over 50% [10]. Group 4: Product Innovation and Market Trends - The trend towards lower alcohol content beverages is gaining traction, with several leading companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, planning to launch low-alcohol products to cater to younger consumers [13][16]. - Moutai has introduced a blueberry sparkling wine and is actively recruiting distributors to capture more market share in the low-alcohol segment [16]. - The industry is recognizing the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with companies exploring new product lines to meet diverse market demands [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has concluded, leading to varied price movements in the white liquor market, with some products experiencing price increases while others continue to decline [1][2][3] Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, among 21 sampled white liquor products, 9 saw a decrease in average retail price, while 8 experienced an increase, and 4 remained unchanged [2] - Notably, high-end products like Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have seen price drops, with Moutai's average retail price falling to approximately 2304 RMB, a decrease of about 100 RMB from the previous period [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is reported at 2298.5 RMB, with a notable decline in several high-end products due to ongoing market pressures [7][10] - East Dongguan's market shows a mixed trend, with 9 products increasing in price and 5 decreasing, highlighting the volatility in high-end liquor pricing [12][13] Online vs. Offline Pricing - Online platforms, particularly instant retail channels, are showing lower prices compared to offline supermarkets, with Moutai priced at 2229 RMB online, which is about 75 RMB lower than the overall average [3][8] - The price discrepancies between online and offline channels are significant, with products like Junpin Xijiu and Qinghua Lang being sold for much lower prices online compared to their offline counterparts [3][8] Impact of Regulatory Changes - The ongoing "ban on alcohol" has significantly impacted sales, particularly in high-end segments, leading to price reductions as businesses attempt to stimulate demand [9][10] - The combination of the 618 festival and regulatory changes has created a challenging environment for liquor companies, as they navigate maintaining sales volume and pricing stability [1][17] Summary of Average Prices - The average prices for key products as of July 4th are as follows: - Moutai: 2367.62 RMB [19] - Wuliangye: 1010.27 RMB [19] - Junpin Xijiu: 833.17 RMB [20] - Qinghua Lang: 943.11 RMB [20] - Guojiao 1573: 993.42 RMB [20]

Group 1 - The current demand for the liquor industry is at a historical low, with a five-year demand index at 28%, indicating limited downside risk [1] - The supportive policies are expected to provide a foundation for consumer recovery, with economic data from January to March showing positive signs, and more supportive policies anticipated to boost liquor demand [1] - Liquor demand is expected to gradually recover at a slow rate, with short-term rigid demand and potential improvement in banquet demand due to a low base in the same period [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry is projected to experience a "valuation-performance" double bottom by 2025, entering a mid-cycle buying point [1] - The dividend yield of the sector is high compared to the ten-year government bond yield, indicating attractive investment value [1] - Despite ongoing downward adjustments in profit forecasts, valuations are at historical lows, suggesting that stock prices may stabilize before earnings do [1] - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Gujing Gongjiu, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye, which are expected to show strong profitability stability [1] Group 3 - The Food and Beverage ETF tracks the China Securities Index for the food and beverage sector, focusing on high-barrier and resilient segments like liquor and dairy products [2] - The top ten constituent stocks include major liquor brands, providing investors with a convenient way to invest in core assets of the "food and beverage" sector [2] - The ETF offers a low investment threshold compared to individual stocks, making it accessible for small investors [2]

Core Insights - The competitiveness of the Yangtze River Delta wine industry is fundamentally driven by the release of policy dividends, activation of geographical endowments, and the reconstruction of the industrial chain [12] Economic Overview - In 2024, the GDP of the Yangtze River Delta is projected to exceed 33 trillion yuan, contributing 25% of the national economic total with only 4% of the land [3] - The region accounts for approximately 17% of the national population and contributes about 30% to national economic growth [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the GDP surpassed 8 trillion yuan, maintaining a strong position in the national economic landscape [3] Industry Performance - Anhui's liquor industry reported significant growth in 2024, with revenue from large enterprises reaching 37.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and total profits of 12.77 billion yuan, up 13.2% [4] - Jiangsu faced challenges with a 9.83% decline in liquor production and a 16.69% drop in profits, contrasting with the expansion of production capacity by major brands [4] - Zhejiang's yellow wine industry, which holds 57.02% of national production, has seen leading companies achieve growth through structural upgrades and market expansion [4] Challenges Faced - Shanghai's local brands are struggling, with Jin Feng Wine achieving a revenue of 578 million yuan, a mere 0.87% increase, while its net profit plummeted by 94.49% [5] - Shanghai Gui Jiu experienced an 82.54% revenue drop to 285 million yuan, resulting in a net loss of 217 million yuan due to issues like related party transactions and funding chain disruptions [5] - The overall industry faces challenges such as aging consumers in Zhejiang and insufficient penetration into younger markets [6] Strategic Insights - The integration strategy of the Yangtze River Delta aims to break down administrative barriers and inject new momentum into the wine industry [8] - The region's economic foundation and scale have fostered the rise of Su and Hui wines, with leading companies capturing over 60% of their respective provincial markets [7] - Experts suggest that the wine industry must shift from provincial strategies to a more integrated approach, leveraging the strengths of the entire region [10] Future Opportunities - The Yangtze River Delta's one-integration strategy presents a historic opportunity for the wine industry, emphasizing the need for collaboration and resource sharing among provinces [9] - Initiatives include establishing a smart brewing innovation chain, promoting integrated cultural tourism, and developing new green consumption scenarios [9] - The region's unique economic and demographic characteristics create a fertile ground for high-end consumption, with significant potential for growth in premium wine markets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period in 2024, with intensified market competition and frequent personnel changes, prompting companies to view "reform" as a key driver for exploring new growth points to meet challenges and seize opportunities [2] Company Overview - Liang Jinhui, the Chairman of Gujing Group, has been with the company for 36 years and has served as chairman for 11 years, with a potential retirement in 2026 due to state-owned enterprise regulations [4][8] - Under Liang's leadership, Gujing Gongjiu has experienced explosive growth, with revenue increasing from 4.651 billion to 23.578 billion yuan from 2014 to 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18%, and net profit rising from 597 million to 5.517 billion yuan, with a CAGR of about 25% [6][9] Strategic Goals - Gujing Gongjiu aims to achieve a revenue target of 30 billion yuan, despite facing challenges in a deeply adjusted industry [7][10] - The company has set a new goal of reaching 30 billion yuan in revenue by 2024, following a successful 2023 where revenue exceeded 20 billion yuan [9][10] Market Performance - In 2024, Gujing Gongjiu reported revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% [10] - The company's core product, the Year Original Series, generated revenue of 18.086 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 76.71% of total revenue [10] Regional Focus - The core market for Gujing Gongjiu remains the Central China region, generating 20.151 billion yuan in revenue, which constitutes 85.46% of total revenue [11] Strategic Adjustments - Gujing Gongjiu has shifted its strategic focus, no longer setting specific growth targets for 2025, instead aiming for stable growth in total revenue [12] - The company emphasizes a dual strategy of "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" products while exploring new avenues such as "liquor+" [13][15] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the liquor industry's ability to navigate through cycles, citing the unchanged cultural, consumption, and social attributes of liquor [13] - Gujing Gongjiu is actively pursuing "liquor+" strategies, including integration with traditional Chinese medicine, low-alcohol products, and food, to meet diverse consumer demands [15][16]

Economic Data and Market Performance - May economic data indicates a shift in growth momentum from exports and investments to consumption, with retail sales growth reaching a high point for 2024, exceeding market expectations [4] - The A-share market has shown a significant decrease in trading volume, with the average daily turnover falling below 1.3 trillion yuan for five consecutive days [1] - The major indices experienced collective declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.16% as of June 20 [2] Defensive Market Sentiment - Defensive sectors, particularly liquor and banking, have shown strong performance amidst market adjustments, with companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck and Shanxi Fenjiu seeing weekly gains exceeding 5% [2] - The banking sector, including China Bank and Construction Bank, saw significant market capitalization increases, with China Bank's market cap rising by 229.14 billion yuan [2] New Index Components - The recent adjustment of the Every Day Brand 100 Index included nine new companies, with Gujing Gongjiu showing a notable weekly increase of 4.4% [5] - Vipshop, another new component, also experienced a slight increase in stock price, highlighting its strong position in the discount retail sector [5] Investment Opportunities in the Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is currently in a recovery phase, with potential investment opportunities as defensive sectors regain investor interest [6] - The liquor ETF has seen a year-to-date decline of 9.42%, but its share count has increased by 15.07 million, indicating continued investor interest despite market challenges [6] Key Stocks in the Liquor Index - Major stocks in the liquor index, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, account for over 50% of the index's weight, reflecting their significant influence on market performance [9]

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 头图 | 视觉中国 在2023年底全球经销商大会上，古井贡酒吹响"冲向300亿、奋进新征程"的号角，但那成了绝唱，后续再也不听不到300亿这个目标数字；2024年古井贡近些 年首次没有实现"精准"增长计划，且在年报中对2025年也仅给出一个模糊的"营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长"的营收计划。 论业绩，古井贡酒算是当前白酒赛道除茅台外"最靓的仔"，2024年营收和净利分别同比增长16.41%、20.22%；25年Q1营收和净利增速仍保持双位数增长， 分别为10.38%和12.84%，占了行业第二和第一的位置。 而且，过去古井贡酒凭借国资背景其实在省内找不到真正的对手（老对手口子窖和迎驾贡酒都是民营企业），但新"禁酒令"实际上对地方"政商酒"会造成深 远影响。 但有业内人士认为，古井贡酒的高增还是通过给渠道压货完成，增长不够健康。这看起来有些道理，复盘古井贡过往的增长，其以"年份原浆"打开次高端市 场，坚持深度分销在徽酒里断层第一，虽然未能成功全国化，但在行业下行周期已表现很亮眼。 所以未来古井贡酒是增长还是下滑的核心在3点，首先是产品能不能打（品牌力）；如果相对较弱，是否 ...

研究报告 Research Report 20 Jun 2025 古井贡酒 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company (000596 CH) 古井贡酒跟踪报告：砥砺前行，价值显现 Building on strengths, value becomes apparent [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info 上调至优于大市 ] Upgrade to OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb135.90 目标价 Rmb191.00 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 义利评级 BB+ 来源 : 盟浪 . Reproduced by permission; no further distribution 市值 Rmb67.09bn / US$9.33bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$54.11mn 发行股票数目 408.60mn 自由流通股 (%) - 1 年股价最高最低值 ...