Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Recommended" [2][27]. Core Views - The performance of the liquor sector during the recent Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was in line with market expectations, with an overall sales decline of 20%-30% [24][28]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sub-industries with high growth potential and lower valuations after recent corrections [27][29]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index falling by 0.29%, ranking 27th among Shenwan's primary industries [5][27]. - Sub-industries such as dairy (+1.13%), condiments (+0.74%), and meat products (+0.60%) showed positive growth, while other liquor categories saw declines [14][27]. Liquor Industry Insights - The report indicates that high-end liquor brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu performed relatively well despite the overall market downturn [24][28]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on the overall financial performance of the liquor sector as it enters the third-quarter reporting period [28]. Consumer Goods Sector - The soft drink and snack sectors maintain a high level of market vitality, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Yanjinpuzi showing growth potential [29]. - The report highlights that the soft drink category is a necessity for daily outings, suggesting resilience in growth during holiday periods [29]. Key Company Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye for their stable performance in the high-end liquor market [28]. - It also recommends attention to regional leaders like Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu for their resilience [28]. Price Fluctuations - Recent price movements for key liquor products include an increase in the price of Feitian Moutai, with the price per bottle rising from 1760 RMB to 1765 RMB for loose bottles and from 1780 RMB to 1795 RMB for packaged bottles [19][21]. - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.04 RMB per kilogram, while other commodity prices such as sugar and soybeans showed slight fluctuations [21][21]. Company Announcements - Dongpeng Beverage is in the process of issuing H-shares and has updated its listing application with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [24][29]. - Guangzhou Restaurant reported a 1.75% increase in mooncake sales compared to the previous year, with total sales reaching 13.98 million boxes [26]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Guizhou Moutai projected to have an EPS of 74.38 RMB in 2025, while Dongpeng Beverage is expected to reach 8.51 RMB [30][31]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook, with Moutai at 19.2 and Dongpeng at 36.6 [30].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry in Q3 2025 is under pressure, with slow payment collection, increased inventory, and weak batch prices due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" [1][2] Payment Collection - The payment collection progress for liquor companies in Q3 2025 has slowed down significantly, with only Kweichow Moutai expected to maintain a collection rate similar to previous years, while other companies face relative pressure [1][2] Sales Performance - The sales performance in Q3 2025 is under pressure, particularly in June and July due to the "ban on alcohol," although there has been some improvement in August and September. Kweichow Moutai has shown resilience with significant sales growth in August and September, with a year-on-year increase exceeding 20% [2][3] Inventory Levels - After a slight decrease in inventory levels in Q1 2025, the overall inventory in the liquor industry has accumulated due to a significant slowdown in sales since Q2 2025. The inventory is expected to decrease during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, but channel inventory may not see significant reduction [2][3] Batch Prices - Batch prices for most liquor products are under pressure due to the "ban on alcohol" and aggressive promotional activities during the festive season. High-end liquor prices, such as Feitian Moutai, have dropped to 1750-1800 RMB, while other products like Wuliangye have also seen price declines [2][3] Price Segment Analysis - High-end liquor: Kweichow Moutai is expected to maintain growth, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao may face slight pressure in Q3 2025 - Mid-range liquor: Significant differentiation is expected, with Shanxi Fenjiu showing stable performance, while other brands may benefit from low base effects - Regional leaders: Brands like Gujinggongjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu are still adjusting and may be significantly impacted by the "ban on alcohol" [3][4] Earnings Forecast - Overall, liquor companies are expected to face pressure, with most companies' performance in Q3 2025 projected to decline year-on-year. However, Kweichow Moutai is anticipated to achieve revenue and profit growth, while others like Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu may perform relatively steadily [4] Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on bottom-range allocation opportunities in the liquor sector, recommending leading brands like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as other brands with growth potential and lower valuations [5]

文｜王伟设 云酒·中国酒业品牌研究院高级研究员 设问酒道工作室创始人 今年下半年以来众多品牌密集推出低度白酒： 8月19日，古井贡推出26度375ml375元的年份原浆轻度古20。 低端市场口感匹配度低 虽然低度白酒是个发展趋势，但对于一个喝惯了中高度酒的庞大酒民群体来说，要想让理性、悦己的消费观念全民化，让低度风格成为消费主流等 还需要时间。 低度酒的出现符合消费观念和口感偏好的改变，因而它是有发展前景的品类。同时，其成为主流消费及其酿造技术的改进提升是个渐进的过程，不 可能成为短期爆发的风口。 低端市场主要是50元以下的大众消费群体，其对口感风格的需求是度数不能太低，一般在40度以上，入口不能太轻，要有一定的醇厚感，回味不能太净， 要有一点回味且酒体要柔顺。 但是低度白酒一般在30度一下，其酒体单薄，酒分子与水分子失去蒂合度，即便加入调味酒也难以产生消费者需要的口感。如果增加基酒或调味酒必将增 加成本推高价格，偏离大众消费的价格需求。 8月26日，五粮液推出29度500ml399元的一见倾心。 8月30日，舍得推出29度500ml379元的舍得自在。 另据内部消息，国窖1573也将推出26度500ml68 ...

Core Insights - The dual festival period of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025 did not yield the expected sales peak for the liquor industry, with retail and catering sales only growing by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the May Day holiday [1][3] - The liquor market is experiencing a structural transformation driven by rational consumption, channel revolution, and brand resilience, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for the industry [3] Market Performance - High-end liquor brands showed stable sales during the dual festival period, benefiting from effective volume control and price maintenance strategies, which helped stabilize core product pricing [3][4] - In contrast, mid-range and lower mid-range liquors faced significant challenges, with many products seeing price drops from the 400 yuan range to 200-300 yuan, and sales volumes declining by over 30% for most brands [4][6] - Low-end liquor performed relatively well, with some star products experiencing over 20% year-on-year sales growth, reflecting a shift towards value-for-money consumption [6][8] Regional Variations - The overall liquor market in Sichuan saw a year-on-year sales decline of approximately 20%, with significant drops in the Chengdu market [9][11] - In Guangdong, liquor sales also fell by 20-30% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in corporate group orders and a shift towards lower-priced products [9][11] - The Anhui market saw an increase in banquet events, but the average spending per table decreased, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [11][12] - The Henan market displayed structural opportunities, with some brands achieving growth through product innovation and cultural marketing [12] - Northern provinces like Shandong and Hebei showed signs of recovery, benefiting from a faster rebound in banquet markets [12] Channel Evolution - The liquor industry is undergoing a digital transformation in its channel ecosystem, with major brands adopting instant retail strategies to enhance consumer access [13][15] - Instant retail channels saw significant growth during the dual festival period, with sales on platforms like Meituan increasing by 8 times year-on-year [13][15] - The rise of instant retail reflects a shift in consumer habits towards immediate satisfaction, with younger consumers (aged 25-35) making up over 45% of buyers on these platforms [15][16] Future Trends - The liquor industry's competition is shifting from traditional brand and channel advantages to a more comprehensive competition based on digital capabilities, including data insights and supply chain efficiency [16] - The future of liquor consumption is expected to be characterized by rational, diverse, and instant purchasing behaviors, necessitating a reevaluation of product positioning and marketing strategies by companies [16]

文 | 挖贝网 王思宇 挖贝研究院梳理出"2025年9月安徽A股上市公司市值TOP100"（以下简称"榜单"或"TOP100"）。上榜门槛为市值51亿元，8家公司 市值超过500亿元。排名第一的是阳光电源，市值达3,420.80亿元。 阳光电源（300274.SZ）3,420.80亿元； 科大讯飞（002230.SZ）1,247.16亿元； 海螺水泥（600585.SH）1,237.39亿元； 江淮汽车（600418.SH）1,159.71亿元； 古井贡酒（000596.SZ）846.87亿元； 国轩高科（002074.SZ）830.29亿元； 铜陵有色（000630.SZ）691.93亿元； 晶合集成（688249.SH）675.47亿元； 三七互娱（002555.SZ）480.94亿元； 国元证券（000728.SZ）401.03亿元。 8家公司市值超过500亿元 据挖贝研究院梳理，榜单上的100家企业总市值约2.31万亿元。其中，阳光电源市值3,420.80亿元位居榜首，第二为科大讯飞，市 值1,247.16亿元，海螺水泥排第三市值1,237.39亿元。 从上榜公司市值分布看，TOP100中，市值超过5 ...

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.47% on October 10, with Gujing Gongjiu leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] Stock Performance - Gujing Gongjiu closed at 154.28, down 1.04%, with a trading volume of 16,600 shares and a transaction value of 258 million [2] - Other notable declines include Shanxi Fenjiu at 188.70 (-0.89%), Luzhou Laojiao at 128.87 (-0.76%), and Kweichow Moutai at 1430.00 (-0.47%) [2] - The overall trading volume for the liquor sector showed a net outflow of 760 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 219 million [2][3] Fund Flow Analysis - Shanxi Fenjiu saw a net inflow of 16.18 million from main funds, while it experienced a net outflow of 67.02 million from speculative funds [3] - Gujing Gongjiu had a net inflow of 2.45 million from main funds but faced a significant outflow of 18.77 million from speculative funds [3] - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types, with main funds showing a net outflow across the sector [3]

文/张雪文 9月19日，古井贡酒举行了2025秋季开酿仪式，今年已经是古井贡酒连续举行秋酿仪式的第十二个年头。古井贡酒的秋酿，早已超越酿酒本身，多年来的经 验累积，使古井不仅酿出醇香美酒，更淬炼出一种永不止步的自我超越精神。 2025第十二届古井贡酒·年份原浆秋季开酿仪式 坚守：在与时间的对话中自我锚定 在古井酒神广场上，一座19.6米高的曹操雕像与古井贡酒总部彼此对望，双手举杯，以美酒礼敬天地。曹操，这位家喻户晓的历史人物，是卓越的政治家、 军事家、诗人，但于古井而言，他更是一位"酒神"。 建安元年（公元196年），曹操把家乡亳州所产的"九酝春酒"（古井贡酒前身）及其酿造方法《九酝酒法》进献给了汉献帝刘协，自此古井贡酒年年进贡， 岁岁受宠。这段历史是中国白酒作为贡品的最早文字记载，《九酝酒法》也是中国历史上有文字记载的最早的酿酒方法，并且在2018年9月19日获评吉尼斯 世界纪录——"世界上现存最古老的蒸馏酒酿造方法"。 中国酒业协会理事长宋书玉在2025古井秋酿仪式上表示："正如古井'四贡之美'——贡献品质、贡享文化、贡话情感、贡和生态。秋酿的美，不仅在于酒本 身的醇香，更在于它承载的文化与记忆。" 每年 ...

证券之星消息，10月9日白酒板块较上一交易日下跌0.72%，古井贡酒领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3933.97，上涨1.32%。深证成指报收于13725.56，上涨1.47%。白酒板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600197 | 伊力特 | 15.22 | 0.86% | 4.58万 | 6910.41万 | | | 000860 | 顺鑫农业 | 15.60 | 0.19% | 7.94万 | | 1.23亿 | | 000858 | 五粮液 | 121.16 | -0.26% | 20.38万 | | 24.55 亿 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | 67.61 | -0.49% | 4.96万 | | 3.35亿 | | 615009 | 贵州茅台 | 1436.78 | -0.50% | 5.49万 | | 78.45 乙 | | 002646 | 天佑德酒 | 9.58 | -0.52% | 3.59万 | 3431.05万 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the holiday season is expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations, although there are some positive indicators in specific segments [3][5]. Group 1: Liquor Sales Performance - Liquor sales showed marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday but gradually slowed down afterward, with an overall expected decline of around 20% [3]. - High-end products, particularly from Moutai and Wuliangye, demonstrated good turnover, while mid-range products like Wuliang Chun and Honghua Lang saw double-digit growth in certain regions [3][4]. - Demand for large gatherings remains relatively strong, with positive growth reported in Jiangsu, Henan, and Sichuan, particularly in the mid-price range [3]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Performance varies significantly by province, with Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results, while other regions like Hunan and Anhui met expectations with declines of over 20% [3][4]. - Feedback from various regions indicates that while some areas experienced a decline, the overall performance was not as poor as initially anticipated [3]. Group 3: Channel Inventory and Pricing - Channel inventory is experiencing slight depletion but remains at a high level, with a balance between incoming and outgoing shipments expected to continue into Q4 2025 and H1 2026 [5]. - Pricing remains stable with slight increases, although there is anticipated downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies are generally reducing their promotional spending, focusing more on consumer-end products rather than channel products, with a notable shift towards secondary products [6]. - Despite reduced spending, leading brands are still managing to increase their market share in specific segments, indicating a competitive market landscape [6]. - The overall collection and shipment progress for companies is lagging by over 10% compared to last year, with some brands maintaining their targets while others are struggling [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current liquor cycle is seen as entering a bottoming phase, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower performance risks, those expected to confirm performance bottoms, and those undergoing significant transformations [7]. - Specific companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are highlighted as priority investments due to their resilience [7]. - Attention is also drawn to companies like Yanghe and Jiuzi Li Du, which are undergoing changes that could lead to future growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [22]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is experiencing a marginal recovery in demand while supply continues to clear out, with expectations of a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the holiday period [5][6]. - High-end products like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing better turnover, while mid-range products are performing relatively well in certain regions [5]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies with stable performance, those undergoing significant transformation, and those with quality products that are clearing out inventory [5]. Industry Basic Data - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,219.12 billion [2]. - The circulating market value stands at 31,214.28 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the liquor industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -4.0%, -6.4%, and -15.6% respectively [3]. - The relative performance compared to the benchmark index is -7.2% over 1 month, -24.9% over 6 months, and -31.1% over 12 months [3]. Sales Performance Insights - During the holiday period, liquor sales are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [5]. - High-end gifting demand has improved slightly before the holidays, while mid-range business group purchases are still under pressure [5]. - Regional performance varies, with provinces like Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results [5]. Brand Performance - Moutai and Wuliangye are performing well, while other brands are experiencing significant declines in sales [5][6]. - The report highlights that brands like Gujing and Jiuzi are expected to confirm performance bottoms and drive growth through market share [5]. Channel and Inventory Insights - Channel inventory is slightly decreasing, with supply and demand remaining in a tight balance [5]. - The report anticipates that Q4 will focus on inventory digestion, with price stability expected despite some downward pressure [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with low performance risk, those confirming performance bottoms, and those undergoing deep transformations [5]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Moutai, Fenjiu, and Gujing, with a focus on dividend yield for Wuliangye and monitoring the performance of Laojiao [5].