证券日报网讯古井贡酒（000596）11月26日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年11月20日， 公司的股东人数为45072户。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotou Securities emphasizes the importance of consumption in economic growth, predicting a stabilization in the consumption fundamentals in 2026, which presents a significant opportunity for investment in the food and beverage industry [1] Group 1: Alcohol Industry - The liquor sector is at a cyclical bottom, with low expectations, low holdings, and low valuations, suggesting potential for left-side layout opportunities [2] - The rapid clearing of financial reports in the past two quarters indicates a resolution of supply-demand conflicts, with a gradual recovery in household consumption expected [2] - The white liquor business model remains strong, and with a potential economic recovery, valuations are likely to rebound quickly [2] Group 2: Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to maintain a structural market in 2026, with investment opportunities in companies with strong single-product growth logic and those benefiting from competitor adjustments [3] - Overall profitability in the beer sector is on an upward trend, driven by the expansion of products priced between 8-10 yuan and improved efficiency from lean management [3] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is positioned for a turnaround in the raw milk cycle in 2026, with a focus on the profitability elasticity of the dairy supply chain [4] - Demand for dairy products has shown differentiation, with low-temperature fresh milk and cheese experiencing healthy growth, while room temperature liquid milk has been a drag [4] - The average milk price in major production areas is expected to recover above the average cost of production in 2026, making it an opportune time to invest in the dairy supply chain [4] Group 4: Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink sector has seen significant performance differentiation, with companies in strong growth categories leading the industry [5] - In 2026, there is a focus on functional beverages and the competitive landscape of packaged water, with an emphasis on companies introducing new products [5] - The demand for low-sugar functional beverages is anticipated to grow, particularly among white-collar workers seeking fatigue-relief options [5] Group 5: Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from strong new channel drivers, with expectations of improved gross and net profit margins due to scale effects [6] - The konjac product category is maintaining high market interest, with significant growth potential in China [6] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with strong performance during the adjustment period and those with leading products in the snack sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggong Liquor's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.03%, reflecting broader market trends and company performance [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Gujinggong Liquor reported revenue of 16.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.87% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 3.960 billion yuan, down 16.57% year-on-year [2] Stock Market Activity - As of November 26, Gujinggong Liquor's stock price was 163.40 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 86.373 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 2.33%, but has increased by 1.78% over the last five trading days and 8.60% over the last twenty days [1] Shareholder Information - As of November 10, the number of shareholders for Gujinggong Liquor was 46,000, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous period [2] - The average circulating shares per shareholder remained at 0 shares, unchanged from the previous period [2] Dividend Distribution - Gujinggong Liquor has cumulatively distributed 12.612 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.136 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder was the China Securities Index White Wine Index A, holding 15.9827 million shares, an increase of 2.3527 million shares from the previous period [3] - Other notable institutional shareholders include E Fund Consumer Industry Stock and Invesco Great Wall New Growth Mixed A, with varying changes in their holdings [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant price adjustment in the Chinese liquor market, particularly among the top ten products, with an overall retail price drop of 69 yuan, totaling 9222 yuan, ending a four-day upward trend [1] - Among the products, Gujinggong Gu20 saw a price increase of 4 yuan per bottle, while the majority experienced price declines, with Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ dropping by 15 yuan per bottle, marking the largest decrease [1][4] - The article notes that prior to this price adjustment, there was a period of price stabilization and increase in the white liquor market, indicating accumulated pressure for a correction [1] Group 2 - Liu Feng, Chief Economist at the International Research Institute of Green Finance, emphasized the resilience of the liquor industry in China, despite challenges such as declining production and market segmentation, due to its essential role in social and emotional contexts [2] - Looking ahead to the 14th Five-Year Plan, Liu pointed out trends driven by consumer rationality and health consciousness, with a focus on quality and cultural value as key purchasing motivations [2] - Liu suggested that liquor companies should adopt a "1+N" product strategy, maintaining core flagship products while introducing a variety of lower-alcohol and fruit wines to meet changing consumer demands [2]

Core Viewpoint - The story of Sun Gao, a contestant in the extreme wilderness survival challenge, highlights the emotional connection between the local community and the Gujinggong liquor brand, showcasing how the brand transcends its product identity to become a symbol of hometown pride and cultural heritage [1][3][4]. Group 1: Brand and Community Connection - Gujinggong liquor has become a living carrier of hometown memories and emotions, deeply integrated into the lives of local people, symbolizing reunion and blessings during festive occasions [3]. - The gesture of Gujing Group sending a farewell gift to Sun Gao's wife, which includes Gujinggong liquor, reflects the brand's commitment to emotional engagement with consumers and recognition of ordinary people's struggles [4]. - Sun Gao's determination and the support from his wife illustrate the ordinary person's courage and dedication, further enhancing the brand's narrative [4]. Group 2: Cultural Empowerment and Global Expansion - Gujinggong liquor is not limited to domestic market development but is accelerating its global expansion, using culture as a bridge to create new growth opportunities amidst structural adjustments in the domestic liquor industry [5][8]. - The "Global Reading of Bo" initiative invites global audiences to engage with the rich cultural heritage of Bozhou, enhancing the understanding and appreciation of Chinese liquor culture [6][8]. - This dual approach of "product + culture" strengthens the brand's cultural depth and showcases the craftsmanship and heritage of Chinese liquor on the world stage [8].

Core Insights - The retail prices of the top ten liquor products in the white liquor market have continued to rise, with an overall price of 9,291 yuan for a bundled sale, marking an increase of 8 yuan from the previous day, achieving four consecutive days of price increases [1] Price Movements - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a strong performance with a daily price increase of 8 yuan per bottle [1] - Guojiao 1573's price increased by 6 yuan per bottle [1] - Qinghualang's price rose by 5 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of increases [1] - Prices for Shuijing Jian'nan Chun and Xijiu Junpin increased by 3 yuan and 2 yuan per bottle, respectively, showing stable trends [1] - Qinghualan 20's price rose by 2 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye Pu 58's price also increased by 2 yuan per bottle [1] - In contrast, the prices of some products decreased, with the boutique Moutai and Gujing Gong Gu 20 dropping by 9 yuan and 7 yuan per bottle, respectively [1] - Feitian Moutai's price fell by 4 yuan per bottle [1] Specific Product Prices - Feitian Moutai: 1,831 yuan per bottle, down 470 yuan [3] - Boutique Moutai: 2,369 yuan per bottle, down 9 yuan [3] - Wuliangye Pu 58: 868 yuan per bottle, up 2 yuan [3] - Qinghualan 20: 396 yuan per bottle, up 2 yuan [3] - Guojiao 1573: 895 yuan per bottle, up 670 yuan [3] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 600 yuan per bottle [3] - Gujing Gong Gu 20: 506 yuan per bottle, down 7 yuan [3] - Qinghualang: 730 yuan per bottle, down 570 yuan [4] - Shuijing Jian'nan Chun: 421 yuan per bottle, up 3 yuan [4] - Xijiu Junpin: 675 yuan per bottle, up 2 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The retail average price of the top ten liquor products in the white liquor market continues to rise, reaching 9,291 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan from the previous day, marking four consecutive days of price increases [1] Price Movements - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ shows strong performance with a daily price increase of 8 yuan per bottle [1] - Guojiao 1573 price increased by 6 yuan per bottle [1] - Qinghua Lang price rose by 5 yuan per bottle, achieving five consecutive days of increases, leading the market [1] - Crystal Jian Nan Chun and Xijiu Junpin prices increased by 3 yuan and 2 yuan per bottle, respectively, showing stable trends [1] - Qinghua Fen 20 price increased by 2 yuan per bottle [1] - Wuliangye Pu 58 price also rose by 2 yuan per bottle [1] Price Declines - Premium Moutai and Gujing Gong Gu 20 experienced significant declines, with prices dropping by 9 yuan and 7 yuan per bottle, respectively [1] - Feitian Moutai price decreased by 4 yuan per bottle [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, while prices for instant foods and condiments have rebounded [1][10]. - Discounts for convenience foods and seasonings have narrowed compared to the end of October, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [19][38]. - The report highlights the stability of discounts for infant formula and beer, while discounts for liquid milk and soft drinks have increased [21][38]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - The wholesale prices for various Baijiu brands, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, have shown significant declines compared to previous months and year-to-date figures [9][40]. - For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1650 yuan, down by 110 yuan from last month, and down 590 yuan year-to-date [40]. Consumer Goods Discounts - Convenience foods have seen an increase in average and median discount rates, moving from 93.2%/95.9% at the end of October to 95.8%/97.0% [19][38]. - Seasonings also experienced a rise in discount rates, from 83.7%/84.9% to 85.9%/88.9% [19][38]. - In contrast, liquid milk discounts have widened, with average rates dropping from 69.6% to 66.0% [21][38]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Shanxi Fenjiu - Yanghe - Others [1].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market, particularly the baijiu sector, experienced significant growth in 2020, with A-shares leading globally. The overall revenue for 19 listed baijiu companies reached 258.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.58% [1][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies totaled 92.068 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 11.95% compared to the previous year [1][5] - There is a notable divergence in performance among baijiu companies, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye achieving double-digit growth, while some smaller brands faced significant declines [4][9] Revenue Performance - In 2020, 19 listed baijiu companies reported a total revenue of 258.94 billion yuan, with 11 companies showing positive growth and 8 experiencing negative growth [2][5] - The highest revenue growth was recorded by Jiugui Liquor at 20.79%, while Qingqing Qiao experienced a decline of 39.07%, marking a difference of 59.86 percentage points [2][3] - The top three companies by revenue were Moutai (94.915 billion yuan), Wuliangye (57.321 billion yuan), and Yanghe (21.101 billion yuan) [4] Profit Analysis - The six leading baijiu companies accounted for over 90% of the total profits in the sector, with Moutai alone contributing more than 36% of total revenue and over 50% of total profits [7][9] - Moutai's net profit reached 46.697 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.33%, while Wuliangye's net profit was 19.955 billion yuan, growing by 14.67% [6][7] - Jiugui Liquor showed remarkable performance with a net profit growth of 64.15%, while Qingqing Qiao reported a significant loss of 1.15 billion yuan [6][7] Market Dynamics - The pandemic initially impacted the baijiu industry negatively, but leading brands demonstrated resilience, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving substantial growth [9] - The disparity in performance is evident, with some companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Jiugui Liquor seeing stock prices increase over threefold, while others struggled [9][11] - The overall tax contributions from the baijiu sector increased significantly, with a 48% rise in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the previous year, attributed to a recovery from the pandemic [14][15] Financial Health - As of March 2021, Wuliangye had the highest cash reserves among listed baijiu companies, totaling 73.38 billion yuan, while Moutai had approximately 50.743 billion yuan [17][18] - The financial strength of these companies is crucial for their ability to invest and expand in a competitive market [17] Compensation Trends - Moutai reported the highest average employee salary in the sector at over 300,000 yuan, while the lowest was at less than 52,000 yuan for Huangtai Liquor [19][20] - The management compensation for Moutai was relatively low compared to other companies, with total management salaries below 3.72 million yuan [21][23]

食品饮料行业 超配 （维持） 曙光渐近，蓄力前行 食品饮料行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 2025 年 11 月 24 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 推荐 ◼ 食品饮料行业今年1-10月跑输沪深300指数。受需求弱复苏以及禁酒 令等因素影响，食品饮料行业今年走势较弱。2025年1-10月份（截至 2025年10月31日），SW食品饮料行业指数整体下跌5.52%，跌幅在所有 申万一级行业中最大，跑输同期沪深300指数23.46个百分点。细分板 块中，所有 ...