白酒：1190亿元分红创新高 所谓冰，是整个白酒板块上市企业2024年净利润增速普遍下滑；而所谓火，则是2024年年度行业分红总金额高达1190亿元，逆势创下历史新高。 在行业竞争不断加剧的背景下，白酒这张高分红的"牌"能否达到想要的效果？从2024年第四季度与2025年一季度基金的持仓态度来看，机构投资者的信心已 然回暖。 随着2024年年报披露完毕，白酒企业2024年派发"红包"金额也随之出炉，由于多家头部酒企增加了分红频次，最终让白酒企业2024年全年分红总金额定格在 1190亿元，分红总金额同比增长近10%，而整个行业股息支付率也达到71.34%，仅次于2022年的74.28%，排在历史第二。 | 年度 | 归母净利润(亿元) | 现金分红总额(亿元) | 股息支付率 | 分红公司数量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024 | 1,668.48 | 1.190.26 | 71.34% | 17 | | 2023 | 1.550.59 | 1.094.86 | 70.61% | 16 | | 2022 | 1.304.73 | 969.19 | 74.28% ...

作 者丨肖夏 编 辑丨骆一帆 图 源丨图虫 在上一轮行业调整期，企业面临业绩倒退，酒企普遍采取减员、降薪等方式应对，当中一些企 业后来被兼并重组。 新一轮调整期正在持续，无论是产能还是员工数量，酒企都比上一轮周期大幅扩容，其又采取 了哪些措施应对需求下行？ 近 日 ， 2 1 世 纪 经 济 报 道 记 者 整 理 了 4 4 家 酒 业 上 市 公 司 的 员 工 数 据 后 注 意 到 ， 过 去 一 年间，酒业上市公司共减少了3 8 0 0多人，酒业上市公司员工总数减少至3 0万人以下。 去年酒业的减员主要发生在啤酒行业——2 0 2 4年，百威亚太中国区、华润啤酒、燕京啤酒去 年在职 员 工都 减少了 上千人。其 中 百 威亚 太中 国区减员最 多，从2 0 2 3年末的2 11 8 1人减少至 2 0 2 4年末的1 8 4 0 1人，此外华润啤酒、燕京啤酒也都分别减员上千人，青岛啤酒也减少8 0 0多 人。其背景是去年中国啤酒行业整体下行，多家龙头酒企营收、销量都出现下滑。 而在调整幅度更大的白酒行业，则出现了与上一轮周期不同的新气象——去年所有白酒上市公 司员工总数不减反增，大部分酒企还在逆势扩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [2][4][10] - In Q4 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 4.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, and a net profit of 0.771 billion yuan, down 0.74% year-on-year [2][4][10] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded an operating revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.38%, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year [2][4][10] Financial Performance - The company's product breakdown for 2024 shows that the revenue from "Year Original" was 18.086 billion yuan (up 17.31% year-on-year), "Gu Jing Gong Jiu" was 2.241 billion yuan (up 11.17% year-on-year), and "Huang He Lou and Others" was 2.538 billion yuan (up 15.08% year-on-year) [10] - Total sales volume in 2024 was 128,300 tons, an increase of 8.44% year-on-year, with "Year Original" sales at 71,100 tons (up 11.99% year-on-year) and "Gu Jing Gong Jiu" sales at 32,300 tons (up 8.97% year-on-year) [10] - The company's net profit margin improved to 23.4% in 2024, with a gross margin of 79.9% [10] Strategic Outlook - The company is steadily advancing its "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, with a solid foundation in its home market and gradual expansion into other regions [10] - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 12.13 yuan and 13.63 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14 and 13 times based on the current stock price [10]

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 古井贡酒（000596.SZ） 2024 年成绩优异，2025 年开局良好 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 164.39 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 287.24/139.84 | | 总市值(亿元) | 868.97 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 671.70 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.29 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 4.09 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 39.96 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -64% -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 古井贡酒 沪深300 相关研究报告 | 张宇光（分析师） | 逄晓娟（分析师） | 张恒玮（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn | 2024 年业绩平稳，2025 年 Q1 好于预期，维持" ...

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 古井贡酒（000596.SZ） 2024 年成绩优异，2025 年开局良好 古井贡酒 2024 年实现营收 235.78 亿元，同比+16.41%，实现归母净利润 55.17 亿元，同比+20.22%，其中 Q4 公司实现营收 45.09 亿元，同比+4.85%，实现归 母净利润 7.71 亿元，同比-0.74%。2025Q1 实现营收 91.46 亿元，同比+10.38%， 实现归母净利润 23.3 亿元，同比+12.78%。一季度营收利润好于预期。我们维持 2025-2026 年盈利预测，并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 分别为 58.9、66.0、73.8 亿元，同比分别+6.7%、+12.2%、+11.8%，EPS 分别为 11.14、12.49、13.97 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 15.4、13.7、12.3 倍，公司对 市场把控能力很强，目前环境以及库存状态只是影响阶段性增速不影响品牌高度 和可持续发展，维持"增持"评级。 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggongjiu reported a dual growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, achieving operating income of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year, although it fell short of its targets for revenue and profit [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Gujinggongjiu's revenue reached 23.578 billion yuan, marking a 16.41% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.517 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.22% [2] - The company did not meet its initial targets of 24.45 billion yuan in revenue and 7.95 billion yuan in profit [2] Group 2: Quarterly Trends - The company's growth rate showed a declining trend throughout the quarters, with a 1.2% year-on-year decline in net profit in Q4 2024, marking the first negative growth in recent years [4] - The decline in performance is attributed to the overall destocking cycle in the liquor industry, leading Gujinggongjiu to control inventory to stabilize channel prices [4] Group 3: Market Strategy and Competition - The core product "Gu20" saw its terminal price drop below 500 yuan per bottle, which raised concerns about profitability as it accounts for nearly 30% of the company's revenue [4] - The company’s national strategy remains a key issue, with the Central China region contributing 20.151 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 85% of total revenue, while growth in North and South China was significantly lower [4] - Competitors like Shanxi Fenjiu have achieved faster national expansion through differentiated strategies, while Gujinggongjiu still relies on traditional large merchant models, indicating weaker channel control [4] Group 4: Cost and Dividend Policy - High sales expenses have also impacted Gujinggongjiu's profits, with sales expenses reaching 4.823 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for 25.29% of revenue, which is significantly higher than peers like Moutai and Wuliangye [4] - The company declared a total dividend of 2.643 billion yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio of 47.91%, the highest in its history, which boosted investor confidence but raised concerns about cash flow sustainability for national expansion [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - In 2025, the liquor industry is expected to remain in a phase of stock competition, and Gujinggongjiu's ability to maintain its domestic market while breaking through barriers in external markets will be crucial for achieving its goal of reaching 30 billion yuan [5] - The Q1 2025 report showed revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.38%, and net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78%, indicating a slowdown compared to 2024 [5]

作者︱懂酒哥 随着2024年白酒上市公司财报的陆续披露，徽酒四大上市酒企的发展态势逐渐明晰。 作为区域龙头的古井贡酒，凭借持续扩大的营收与利润增速，不断挤压其他三家酒企的市场空间；曾经稳坐行业第二的口子窖，在与迎驾贡酒的较量中渐落 下风，而迎驾贡酒凭借强劲的增长势头，市场地位愈发稳固；反观金种子酒，在激烈的竞争中处境艰难，不仅营收大幅下滑，还陷入了持续亏损的困境…… 2024年，安徽4家白酒上市企业合计实现归母净利润95.04亿元，同比增长10.82%；实现营业收入378.62亿元，同比增长10.05%。而在徽酒整体稳健增长的现 象背后，却是4家酒企的竞争格局出现明显分化。 懂酒哥发现，徽酒龙头古井贡酒的领先优势进一步扩大。2024年，古井贡酒实现归母净利润55.17亿元，超过行业第二名与第三名的利润总和；净利润增速 高达46.01%，在4家企业中排名第一。 营收方面，古井贡酒实现营业收入235.78亿元，同比增长16.41%，不仅远超第二名迎驾贡酒8.46%的营收增速，营收规模更是比其余3家企业总和高出90亿 元。这种显著的差距，凸显出徽酒市场"强者恒强"的竞争态势。 在产品布局上，古井贡酒构建了覆盖百元至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 50 yuan per 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of 3.172 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 57.49% [1]. - The company's white liquor business revenue reached 22.865 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 16.43%, driven by an increase in both sales volume and average price [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 79.90%, with a slight increase compared to the previous year, indicating effective cost management [3]. - The company forecasts steady revenue growth for 2025, with net profit estimates adjusted to 6.144 billion yuan, reflecting a 11.36% growth rate [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 4.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, while net profit was 771 million yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue reached 9.146 billion yuan, growing by 10.38% year-on-year, and net profit was 2.330 billion yuan, up 12.78% [1]. Business Segments - The company's flagship product series, "Nianfen Yuanjiang," saw revenue growth of 17.31% in 2024, with notable increases in both sales volume and average price [2]. - The company reported a total of 5,089 distributors by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 448 distributors year-on-year, indicating a solid market presence [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for the "Nianfen Yuanjiang" series was 86.12% in 2024, reflecting strong pricing power and cost control [3]. - The report highlights a decrease in sales expense ratio to 26.22% in 2024, contributing to improved profitability [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 6.144 billion yuan and 6.864 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 7.586 billion yuan [4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 14 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4].