Market Performance - On the first trading day after the holiday, A-shares saw a strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.24%, surpassing the 3900-point mark for the first time in over 10 years [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.77% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 17.269 billion yuan, an increase of 3.571 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with 3200 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Highlights - The international gold price broke the 4000 USD mark, leading to significant gains in the gold and non-ferrous metal sectors, with stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept saw strong performance, with stocks such as Guoguang Electric and Hanhua Welding Technology also hitting the daily limit, following key breakthroughs in China's nuclear fusion device construction [1] - The semiconductor sector experienced a surge, with companies like Zhaoxin Semiconductor and Huahong Semiconductor reaching historical highs [1] - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks collectively rose, with Antai Technology hitting the daily limit and other companies like Jinkeli Permanent Magnet and Zhongkuang Resources increasing by over 8% due to export controls on related rare earth items [1] Underperforming Sectors - The film and cinema sector faced declines, with Huace Film and Television dropping over 12% and other companies like Hengdian Film and China Film hitting the daily limit down, as the 2025 National Day box office fell short of last year's figures [1] - The liquor sector also saw declines, with Gujing Distillery and Huangtai Liquor both dropping over 3% [1] - The real estate sector experienced widespread declines, with Shen Shen Fang A hitting the daily limit down and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech dropping over 9% [1]

Summary of China Spirits Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Spirits Industry**, particularly during the **Golden Week holiday season** which includes the National holiday and Mid-Autumn festival - Sales momentum for liquor consumption remained weak year-over-year (YoY) in key regions such as **Hunan, Anhui, and Henan** [1][1][1] Key Insights - **Banquet Demand**: Banquets are identified as the only growth pillar for spirits brands, outperforming other consumption scenarios during the holiday season, especially in **Jiangsu** and **Henan** provinces [1][1][1] - **Gifting Demand Decline**: There was a notable decline in gifting demand, with high-premium moon cakes (priced over Rmb500) market share dropping to approximately **1.8%** in 2025 YTD from **7.2%** in 2023. Pre-festival sales of moon cakes decreased by over **45%** YoY [1][1][1] - **Retail Sales Performance**: Overall retail sales of key enterprises in retail and catering increased by **3.3%** in the first four days of Golden Week, compared to a **6.3%** increase during the Labor Day holiday in 2025 [1][1][1] Regional Sales Performance - **Anhui**: Retail-end sales likely declined by **20%-30%** during the double holiday, with banquet sales still in a YoY downward trend [1][1][1] - **Jiangsu**: Retail-end sales likely decreased by over **20%** YoY, although banquet sales outperformed other consumption scenarios [1][1][1] - **Henan**: Holiday retail-end sales likely saw a **10%-15%** YoY decline, with banquet sales possibly remaining flat [1][1][1] - **Sichuan**: Retail-end sales may decrease by **20%** YoY, with gift-sending/business-related sales down by **20%-40%** YoY [1][1][1] - **Hunan**: Pre-festival shipment volumes for major brands like Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye saw declines ranging from **12% to 31%** YoY [1][1][1] Brand Performance - **Moutai**: - Feitian sell-through remained flat YoY, while non-standard SKUs saw a decline of over **20%** YoY [1][1][1] - Wholesale prices for original case Feitian Moutai decreased from **Rmb1,810** to **Rmb1,780** [1][1][1] - **Wuliangye**: - 1618 and Wuliangchun performed positively YoY, while common Wuliangye sell-through declined by **10%-15%** YoY [1][1][1] - **Laojiao**: Guojiao sell-through declined by over **25%** YTD YoY in some regions [1][1][1] Pricing Trends - Post-festival, wholesale prices for key upper-premium SKUs like Feitian Moutai and Common Wuliangye trended weaker compared to pre-festival prices, marking the weakest performance in the past five years [1][1][1] - Channel inventory levels remained stable, with Wuliangye and Laojiao at less than **2 months** and **3 months** respectively, while Gujing faced high inventory pressure [1][1][1] Additional Developments - **New Retail Initiatives**: - Waima opened its first offline store in **Chongqing**, offering upper-premium spirits brands [1][1][1] - I-Moutai launched insta-delivery services, supporting intra-city delivery in as fast as **30 minutes** [1][1][1] - **Sales Performance in Zhejiang**: Wuliangye management reported stable performance in weddings and celebratory banquets in the Zhejiang market [1][1][1] Conclusion - The China Spirits industry is currently facing challenges with weak demand trends, particularly in gifting and general consumption, while banquet demand remains a critical growth area. Brands are adjusting their strategies in response to changing consumer behaviors and market conditions.

Summary of the Conference Call on Baijiu Sales During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Industry Overview - The overall sales of baijiu during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day were lower than last year, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing smaller declines due to gift-giving demand. The price range of 300-600 RMB saw the fastest decline, exceeding 30% [1][3]. - Online channels diverted some sales from offline, leading to a significant drop in offline distributor channels [1][4]. Key Points on Sales Performance - **Sales Disparity**: Sales performance varied significantly across different price ranges. High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye had smaller declines, while the 300-600 RMB price range saw the most significant drop [3][4]. - **Regional Performance**: In Jiangsu, sales were down compared to last year, with Yanghe focusing on inventory reduction and price increases. Guoyuan performed relatively well, with a decline of less than 10% [2][8]. - **Inventory Levels**: Jinshiyuan's inventory exceeded three months, while other brands like Guoyuan had larger terminal inventories, leading to price reductions for some products [10][6]. Brand-Specific Insights - **Yanghe**: Prices for core products increased, but social inventory remained high. The overall return rate was about 55%, which is a decline compared to last year [8][6]. - **Guoyuan**: The company aims for a return rate of over 90% by the end of November, with some products seeing a 20% increase in returns compared to last year [9]. - **Wuliangye**: The company implemented price control measures, allowing distributors to sell at higher prices, which helped stabilize prices around 810-815 RMB [32][33]. - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The brand's market performance was poor, completing only 55% of its annual target, with a focus on maintaining high prices for its high-alcohol products [34][35]. Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - **Shift to Online Sales**: Consumers are increasingly turning to online purchases, with some stores reporting a 50% increase in online sales, although overall sales remain dominated by offline channels [16][22]. - **Sales Channels**: There is a notable differentiation in sales performance among smoke shops, with those maintaining good customer relationships experiencing smaller declines [5][22]. Future Outlook - **Inventory Management**: The current inventory reduction cycle is expected to last longer, with a risk of 10%-30% of terminal stores potentially closing if the market does not recover by the Spring Festival [27]. - **Overall Market Trends**: The overall sales situation is projected to decline by about 15% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with significant challenges in the mid-range and low-end segments [31][25]. Conclusion - The baijiu industry is facing significant challenges with declining sales across various price segments, increased online competition, and inventory management issues. High-end brands are somewhat insulated from these trends, but overall market performance remains weak.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, indicating a need for patience as the sector is still in a bottoming phase [5][8]. Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor industry is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with inventory increasing by 10-20% [5][8]. - The report highlights that the consumption scenarios, particularly banquet and gift demands, have underperformed expectations, while the business sector shows some improvement but still has a significant year-on-year gap [5][8]. - The report suggests that the stock price turning point may occur before the fundamental turning point, indicating that investors should remain patient and wait for the right opportunities [5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Perspective - The liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with a projected demand drop of 20-30% and an increase in inventory levels [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for patience and suggests that high dividend yield stocks from leading companies may provide long-term value [5][8]. - Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a watch on Wuliangye, Jianshe, and Yingjia Gongjiu [5][8]. 2. Brand Performance - Moutai is performing the best, with expected sales decline in the single digits and stable pricing around 1780-1835 yuan [9][10]. - Wuliangye is expected to see a 15% decline in sales, with current pricing around 810-830 yuan [9][10]. - Guojiao 1573 anticipates a 20-30% sales drop, maintaining prices of 630 yuan for low-alcohol and 820-830 yuan for high-alcohol variants [9][10]. - Fenjiu is expected to see a 10-15% decline in sales, with pricing for Qinghua 20 around 330-360 yuan [10]. 3. Regional Insights - In Henan, overall sales volume dropped by 15%, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing declines of 6% and 8% respectively [11][12]. - In Jiangsu, the market is experiencing a 20% decline in sales, with Moutai maintaining stable pricing around 1800 yuan [19][20]. - The report notes that the business consumption scenario has been the most affected, with a recovery to only 70% of previous levels [18][22]. 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter of 2025 will see stable prices, but inventory levels will need time to be digested [22][23]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is expected to face significant pressure due to high base effects from 2025, with overall performance likely to remain subdued [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][4][59] Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year, with inventory increasing by 10-20% [3][7] - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, and patience is required for potential investment opportunities [3][7] - The report highlights that the stock price turning point may occur before the fundamental turning point, suggesting a need for cautious observation [3][7] Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report anticipates a significant decline in liquor demand, with banquet performance below expectations and gift demand decreasing [3][7] - The current high inventory levels in channels will require time to digest, and the consumption scenarios are still recovering, leading to weak demand [3][7] - Key recommendations include maintaining patience for high-dividend stocks and waiting for potential buying opportunities in quality stocks [3][7] Brand Performance - Moutai is performing the best, while Wuliangye is trading volume for price [8][9] - Moutai's expected sales decline is in single digits, with prices slightly down to around 1780-1835 yuan [8] - Wuliangye's sales are expected to drop by about 15%, with current prices around 810-830 yuan [8] - Guojiao 1573 is controlling inventory to maintain prices, with expected sales declines of 20-30% [8][9] Regional Liquor Situation - Feedback from various regions indicates a general decline in sales, with specific brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing varying performance [11][19] - The report notes that the business and banquet consumption scenarios are under pressure, with overall sales expected to decline by 30-25% during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [44][49] - The report emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of inventory levels and sales performance across different brands and regions [11][19] Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the food and beverage sector, highlighting projected net profits and PE ratios for companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [53]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a decline in production, with a notable decrease in output for the year 2025, indicating potential challenges for major companies in the sector [1] Industry Summary - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of Chinese liquor (converted to 65 degrees, in commodity volume) is projected to be 236,000 kiloliters in July 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.9% [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese liquor (converted to 65 degrees, in commodity volume) reached 2,146,000 kiloliters, showing a cumulative decline of 5.2% [1] - The report titled "2025-2031 Analysis of the Current Market Situation and Investment Prospects of the Chinese Liquor Industry" by Zhiyan Consulting highlights these trends and provides insights into the future of the industry [1] Company Summary - Major listed companies in the Chinese liquor industry include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Wuliangye (000858), Yanghe Brewery (002304), Luzhou Laojiao (000568), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Gujing Gongjiu (000596), Shui Jing Fang (600779), Shede Liquor (600702), Jiu Gui Jiu (000799), and Laobai Gan Jiu (600559) [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

Core Insights - The white liquor market is experiencing significant price fluctuations and promotional activities as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, leading to a general decline in product prices [2][3][18] - High-end liquor prices are mostly decreasing, with many products seeing their average retail prices drop, while some products maintain stable pricing [5][8][13] Price Trends - In Guangzhou, over half of the products have seen average prices decline, including high-end brands like Wuliangye and Moutai, with price drops ranging from a few to several dozen yuan [3][6] - The average retail price of Moutai remains stable at around 2,299 yuan in some channels, while other platforms offer it for as low as 1,799 yuan, indicating significant price variation across different sales channels [5][6] - In Shenzhen, the average retail price of Moutai has dropped to 2,038.6 yuan, with some channels reporting prices below 2,000 yuan [8][11] Promotional Activities - Various sales channels are implementing promotional activities to boost sales, leading to price reductions across multiple products, particularly in the high-end segment [10][15] - The increase in sales volume is noted, especially for products in the thousand yuan price range, as consumers purchase for gifting and gatherings [10][18] Regional Variations - In Dongguan, the average price of Moutai has decreased by approximately 74 yuan to around 2,180 yuan, driven by promotional activities [18][20] - In Foshan, while some products like Moutai have seen slight price increases, most products in the market are experiencing price declines due to promotional efforts [13][15] Overall Market Dynamics - The white liquor market is characterized by a dual nature, with some products experiencing price stability while others face significant declines, reflecting the competitive landscape and inventory management strategies among distributors [22][25] - The overall trend indicates a downward pressure on prices as the industry seeks to stimulate demand during the festive season [2][10][22]

9月，古井贡酒在日本接连上演两场美酒盛宴 ——26日亮相大阪世博会，28日亳州—东京经贸合作交流 会暨古井贡酒·年份原浆中国酒文化全球巡礼（日本站）再续华章。从文化展演到经贸签约，从新品发 布到机构揭牌，作为中国白酒"出海"先行者，古井贡酒始终以酒为媒，展现中国白酒的品质硬实力，搭 建起中外文明互鉴的桥梁，为中国白酒国际化写下生动注脚。 双场盛事连台：创新演绎中国酒文化 （图源：企业供图，下同） 自千年贡酒的荣耀传承，到成为世博官方合作伙伴的崭新跨越，古井贡酒以文化为舟楫、品质为根基， 在全球化浪潮中劈波斩浪。依托"中国酿·世界香"的战略视野，古井贡酒持续向国际舞台传递中国白酒 的文化魅力，彰显中国白酒的品质硬实力。 继今年6月2日古井贡酒首次以企业日身份亮相大阪世博会后，古井贡酒9月又在日本接连举办两场重要 活动，进一步深化其国际化布局与中国白酒文化传播路径。 9月26 日，"古井贡酒・年份原浆企业日"暨 "汉、唐、宋、明"新品全球上市仪式在大阪世博会中国馆举 行。古井贡酒在现场通过现代艺术演绎传统酿技，展现从制曲到陈酿的千年智慧，呈现古井贡酒技艺根 基《九酝酒法》生生不息的传承。 作为2025大阪世博会中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline, with notable decreases in stock prices for several key companies [1] Company Summaries - Huangtai Liquor Industry has seen a decrease of 2.75% in its stock price [1] - Gujing Gongjiu has experienced a decline of 1.68% [1] - Kweichow Moutai's stock price has dropped by 1.29% [1]