Core Viewpoint - Gujing Gongjiu is actively promoting its brand through the launch of the Autumn Brewing Cultural Week, emphasizing the integration of traditional brewing techniques with modern manufacturing practices [1][2]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The 2025 12th Gujing Gongjiu Autumn Brewing Ceremony took place from September 19 to 23, featuring a dual-city event in Bozhou and Hefei [1]. - The ceremony included the release of several commemorative wines, such as the Gujing Gongjiu Year-round Original Autumn 20 and the Year-round Original 30 for the Year of the Horse [2]. Group 2: Industry Positioning - Gujing Gongjiu is one of the few liquor companies that achieved both revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year, despite industry challenges [1]. - The company aims to transform the liquor economy into a new engine for regional development, enhancing the overall value of Chinese liquor production areas [1]. Group 3: Innovation and Experience - The company showcased a new immersive exhibition hall at the World Manufacturing Conference, highlighting the blend of traditional brewing and smart manufacturing [2]. - Gujing Gongjiu has created a "light health" consumption scene, integrating health drinks, cultural experiences, and interactive activities to enhance customer engagement [3]. Group 4: Cultural Significance - The annual Autumn Brewing Ceremony has become a brand hallmark for Gujing Gongjiu, recognized as a classic case of cultural operation in the Chinese liquor industry [3].

Core Points - The "2025 Phoenix Star Listed Company Awards" ceremony was held in Guangzhou, recognizing companies in various key areas such as innovation, shareholder returns, social responsibility, and growth [1][2] - The "Best Shareholder Return Listed Company" award emphasizes sustainable profitability and shareholder equity growth, integrating financial metrics with ESG performance [2][6] Group 1: Award Winners - The winners of the "Best Shareholder Return Listed Company" award include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Gujing Distillery, and Bosideng [2][4] - Orient Overseas International has distributed over $14.4 billion in dividends over the past four years, maintaining a stable dividend payout ratio of 50% [5][6] - COSCO Shipping Holdings has distributed cash dividends totaling 113.6 billion yuan over the past four years, with a dividend payout ratio of 50% in the last three years [9][10] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 30% since its listing in 2006, with a total cash dividend exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [12][13] - Gujing Distillery plans to distribute 3.172 billion yuan in cash dividends for 2024, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [15][16] - Bosideng achieved a revenue of 25.902 billion yuan in the 2025 fiscal year, with a net profit of 3.514 billion yuan, and a high dividend payout ratio of 84.1% [18][19] Group 2: Company Performance - Orient Overseas International reported a net profit of $2.577 billion for 2024, with a basic earnings per share of $3.90 [6][10] - COSCO Shipping Holdings achieved a revenue of 233.859 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 49.172 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 105.78% [10] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has maintained a stable net interest margin and steady growth in intermediary business income, with a non-performing loan ratio better than the industry average [13] - Gujing Distillery's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 13.880 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 27.22% [16] - Bosideng's revenue growth of 11.6% in a challenging industry environment demonstrates its resilience and commitment to shareholder returns [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the integration of ancient and modern wine culture through the 2025 12th Gujing Gongjiu Autumn Brewing Cultural Week, showcasing Gujing Gongjiu's significant role in the manufacturing industry and its commitment to innovation and sustainability [5][10]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Gujing Gongjiu Autumn Brewing Cultural Week took place from September 19 to 23, featuring a dual-city event in Bozhou and Hefei [5]. - The World Manufacturing Conference, as part of the autumn brewing activities, presented a journey through wine culture, emphasizing the blend of tradition and future innovation [7]. Group 2: Company Achievements - Gujing Gongjiu ranked 413th on the list of China's top 500 manufacturing enterprises this year, reaffirming its status in the industry [10]. - The company has been deeply involved in the preparation and operation of the World Manufacturing Conference, marking its eighth year of collaboration [10]. Group 3: Thematic Focus - The theme of "Green Brewing and Intelligent Manufacturing" was showcased, highlighting Gujing Gongjiu's efforts in quality construction and its transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green production [13]. - The event featured various exhibitions, including traditional brewing techniques and interactive activities, allowing attendees to experience the cultural significance of Chinese brewing [18]. Group 4: Consumer Engagement - A special tasting event titled "Encounter Hefei" was held, inviting consumers to explore the city while enjoying innovative cocktail experiences [22]. - The event included a diverse range of products, from health-oriented beverages to cultural experiences, aimed at engaging younger audiences [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales of liquor are expected to face pressure during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, but there are opportunities for bottom recovery in the sector [5] - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector has lagged behind the Shanghai Composite Index, with a decline of 1.48% over the past two weeks [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of the liquor market and suggests that the worst phase for the industry has passed [5] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - In August, the retail sales of tobacco and liquor fell by 2.3% year-on-year, while restaurant income increased by 2.1%, indicating a gradual recovery in dining consumption [5] - The price of Feitian liquor has shown weakness, with a decline in wholesale prices [5] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance over the last month was 1.3%, 4.6% over three months, and 20.8% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's performance of 6.6%, 17.1%, and 40.9% respectively [3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several liquor companies for investment, including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, among others [5][25] - For consumer goods, it suggests focusing on companies like Bai Run Co., Wei Long, and Salted Fish [8][25] Valuation Insights - As of September 19, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage sector is 21.1x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [22] - The report notes that the liquor sub-sector has the highest valuation at 50.42x [22] Focused Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, including Kweichow Moutai with an expected EPS of 74.19 yuan for 2025 and a PE ratio of 19.79 [28]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a pullback, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a significant decline of 1.43% at the close, and individual stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Shede Liquor dropping over 3% [1][3] - Despite the recent downturn, the Food ETF has seen net inflows of 69.18 million yuan over the last five trading days, indicating continued investor interest [3][4] - The white liquor sector is under demand pressure, but there are signs of improvement in sales performance as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, suggesting a potential recovery in the market [3][5] Group 2 - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a low point, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.74, which is in the 7.06% percentile of the last decade, indicating a good time for long-term investment [4][5] - The government’s advocacy for reducing competition is expected to stabilize prices and support high-quality development, which may lead to a recovery in the liquor sector [5][6] - The white liquor sector is entering a peak season, with signs of improved sales and inventory reduction, suggesting that the bottoming out of the sector may present investment opportunities [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [10] Core Insights - The liquor inventory cycle is gradually turning, with expectations of a demand recovery driven by ongoing economic policies and improved consumer confidence. The industry is entering a critical phase for left-side layout [2][8] - Current valuations and fund holdings in the liquor industry are at historical lows, indicating a favorable time for allocation. Leading liquor companies are showing strong dividend support [2][8] Summary by Sections Inventory Management - The liquor industry has clear inventory cycle fluctuations, with different phases affecting stock performance. The current phase indicates a shift from passive inventory accumulation to active inventory reduction, suggesting a more scientific and rational management approach by manufacturers [6][20][24] Demand Recovery - The demand for liquor is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Historical data shows that liquor industry revenue growth aligns with GDP growth, indicating potential for gradual recovery as the economy improves [36][39] Head Brand Concentration - The trend of market share concentration towards leading brands continues, with top companies maintaining stable growth despite overall market slowdowns. In 2024, listed liquor companies accounted for 28% of the total production, a historical high [42][44] Mid-Autumn Festival Performance Review - Historical performance around the Mid-Autumn Festival shows varying results for liquor stocks compared to the CSI 300 index. The fundamental performance remains the decisive factor for excess returns during this period [49][52]

Group 1 - The event "2025 12th Gujinggongjiu·Autumn Brewing Cultural Week" has been launched, showcasing the integration of ancient and modern wine culture [1][3] - The event will take place from September 19 to 23, featuring a dual-city interaction between "Bohuzhou Gujing Wine God Square" and "Hefei World Manufacturing Conference" [1] - Gujinggongjiu has been recognized as one of the top 500 manufacturing enterprises in China, ranking 413th this year [6] Group 2 - The World Manufacturing Conference is a special event of the Autumn Brewing activities, inviting consumers to experience the rich wine culture [3] - Gujinggongjiu is deeply involved in the conference as a special invited ecological partner and strategic partner, contributing to the transformation and upgrading of Anhui's manufacturing industry [14][12] - The conference will feature various activities, including major project matchmaking, exhibitions of manufacturing achievements, and a focus on "intelligent manufacturing" [14]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The overall sales volume in the baijiu industry has declined, with distributors expecting a 20%-30% drop in sales during the upcoming double festival period. Sales volume decreased by 40%-50% in July and August [1][2] - High-end baijiu wholesale prices are weak, with Feitian Moutai priced around 1,780 RMB. Demand for baijiu in banquet scenarios remains stable, while mid-range products perform more consistently [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: The baijiu industry is facing significant sales pressure, with actual sales declines exceeding previous market expectations. Most regions, except for Henan, are experiencing sales drops greater than anticipated [2] - **Inventory Levels**: From June to August, the average sales volume decreased by 50%, leading to a slight increase in inventory levels compared to last year. Most distributors have higher inventory levels than the same period last year [3] - **Price Trends**: High-end baijiu products like Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye are experiencing weak wholesale prices. Feitian Moutai's price is expected to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 RMB during the double festival period [4][8] - **Company Performance Adjustments**: Guizhou Moutai has lowered its annual growth target but maintains a steady collection rate compared to last year. Wuliangye is also expected to adjust its growth target due to market conditions [6][9] Company-Specific Insights - **Guizhou Moutai**: The company is increasing promotional activities for its series of products and expects a slight downward adjustment in annual growth targets, which may benefit investors by releasing risks [8] - **Wuliangye**: The company is shifting its focus from absolute growth to long-term competitiveness, with a return rate of approximately 60%-70% [9][10] - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The company is implementing a price stabilization strategy and focusing on expanding its terminal market through targeted promotions [11] - **Shanxi Fenjiu**: The company is facing significant sales declines but is maintaining a stable price point due to good relationships with distributors [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with potential for policy-driven growth and those that can adapt to market changes, such as Jiu Gui, She De, and Shui Jing Fang. Mid-range products like Gu Qing Gong and Ying Jia Gong are also highlighted for their recovery potential [5][7] - The overall sentiment is that the baijiu industry is currently at a low point, but there are opportunities for recovery and growth in specific segments and companies [27] Additional Considerations - The impact of external factors, such as government inspections and coal supply pressures, has affected consumption patterns in various regions [12][14] - The performance of next-tier baijiu products is weaker compared to high-end and mid-range products, indicating a need for careful monitoring of new product launches [21] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call regarding the baijiu industry, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.

Group 1 - The 2025 12th Gujinggongjiu Autumn Brewing Cultural Week is taking place from September 19 to 23, featuring a dual-city event in "Bozhou Gujing Wine God Square" and "Hefei World Manufacturing Conference Special Session" [1] - Anhui Gujinggongjiu Co., Ltd. is a strategic partner for the event, showcasing its transformation towards "high-end, intelligent, and green" manufacturing at the Hefei World Manufacturing Conference [3] - The event includes immersive experiences for consumers, such as engaging with traditional brewing techniques and participating in interactive activities [3] Group 2 - The "Yearly Original Light Gu20: Meet Hefei" tasting night on September 20 offers consumers a city tour and an immersive experience of "urban culture" and "innovative cocktail mixing" [4] - The event features cultural exchanges and discussions on the development opportunities for Chinese liquor, with participation from representatives of the Chinese Liquor Association [4][5] - Gujing Health is launching a new market for health-oriented products, integrating instant health drinks and cultural liquor experiences, emphasizing the company's commitment to health and wellness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The 12th Gujinggongjiu Autumn Brewing Ceremony emphasizes the brand's commitment to traditional brewing techniques while creating a cultural consumption scene that strengthens emotional connections with consumers [2][4]. Cultural Foundation - Gujinggongjiu adheres to seasonal brewing methods, with September marking the optimal brewing period due to the fermentation of the mash [5]. - The Autumn Brewing Ceremony is rooted in deep cultural heritage, featuring traditional rituals such as honoring the wine god Cao Cao and expressing gratitude to employees' parents [5][7]. Breakthroughs - This year's ceremony upgraded from three locations to four, including Gujinggongjiu, Huangheloujiu, Mingguangjiuye, and Jiuyunjiuye, enhancing brand presence and standardizing craftsmanship [8][9]. - The event is integrated with the World Manufacturing Conference, expanding its influence and reinforcing Gujinggongjiu's cultural significance as a representative of high-quality Chinese manufacturing [9]. Emotional Connection - The Autumn Brewing Ceremony transforms a traditional brewing event into an engaging cultural consumption experience, fostering deep emotional ties between consumers and the brand [10]. - New products, such as the 2025 commemorative wine, were launched during the ceremony, enhancing the consumer experience and extending emotional connections through collectible items [10][12]. Daily Engagement - Gujinggongjiu recognizes the need for ongoing emotional connections beyond annual events, launching the "Gujing Light Care Society" to create a new consumption ecosystem focused on health and lifestyle [10][12]. - The introduction of lighter products like "Light Gu 20" caters to evolving consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, redefining the role of traditional liquor in modern consumption [12].