Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][6][8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 12.846 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [1][5] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.800 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 530 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.84% [1][5] - The company continues to improve its profitability, with a net profit margin increasing to 11.0% in Q3 2024, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 14.869 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.006 billion yuan, representing a significant increase of 56.1% [2][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.36 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29, 23, and 19 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][6][8] - The company has been implementing reforms that are expected to continue to release benefits, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1][5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer with a target price of 14 yuan [1] Core Views - Yanjing Beer achieved revenue of 12.846 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 4.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 19.84% to 530 million yuan [1] - The company's flagship product, U8, continues to show strong growth momentum, with contract liabilities increasing by 22% year-on-year to 1.2 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024 [1] - Yanjing Beer's cost control and efficiency improvements have driven profit growth, with a net profit margin of 11.0% in Q3 2024, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's reform initiatives and product upgrades are expected to further enhance profitability, with potential for mid-to-long-term profit growth [1] Financial Performance - Yanjing Beer's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 48.0%, with a ton cost of 2,185 yuan per kiloliter, both remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The company's sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 13.9%/10.9%/1.7% respectively, with sales and R&D expense ratios improving year-on-year [1] - The actual tax rate decreased by 3.0 percentage points to 12.0% in Q3 2024, contributing to profit growth [1] - The minority interest ratio decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 17.5%, reflecting improved performance of wholly-owned subsidiaries [1] Market and Industry Analysis - The beer industry faced weak demand in Q3 2024, with national beer production declining by 10% and 3.3% in July and August respectively, before rebounding by 1.4% in September [1] - Yanjing Beer outperformed the industry with a 0.2% year-on-year increase in sales volume to 1.142 million kiloliters in Q3 2024 [1] - The company's average selling price remained stable at 4,202 yuan per kiloliter in Q3 2024, with a slight slowdown in price growth due to increased sales efforts [1] Future Outlook - Yanjing Beer is expected to reduce losses in Q4 2024, with a projected net profit margin of 8-9% for the full year, compared to the industry leader's 13% in 2023 [1] - The company's focus on the mid-to-high-end market segment, particularly the 8-10 yuan price range, is expected to drive future growth [1] - Yanjing Beer's reform initiatives and cost optimization efforts are anticipated to continue driving profitability improvements [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the coming years [2]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 12.85 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on cost control and product upgrades, which have contributed to improved profit margins despite a slowdown in sales volume and price growth [1][3]. - The introduction of the flagship product, Yanjing U8, has been a significant driver for sales growth, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market segment [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Yanjing Beer achieved a revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, reflecting a 19.8% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 45.09%, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.07 percentage points, attributed to product mix upgrades [1]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 11.98% for the first three quarters, down 0.79 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management [1]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue nurturing its core product, Yanjing U8, and expects to benefit from the gradual recovery of consumer demand and ongoing reform benefits [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 985 million yuan, 1.274 billion yuan, and 1.551 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 6% to 7% due to current weak beer consumption [2]. Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.35 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.55 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30x, 23x, and 19x [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 14.727 billion, 15.340 billion, and 15.951 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.62%, 4.16%, and 3.98% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 0.927 billion, 1.096 billion, and 1.273 billion yuan, with growth rates of 43.80%, 18.24%, and 16.12% respectively, resulting in a three-year CAGR of 25.45% [2][6] - The company continues to benefit from the growth momentum of its flagship product U8 and has significant profit release potential through cost reduction and efficiency improvement [2][6] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.846 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, and a net profit of 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year. For Q3 2024, revenue was 4.800 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, and net profit was 0.530 billion yuan, up 19.84% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 47.99%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase, while the net profit margin improved to 11.04%, up 1.81 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales and Cost Structure - The company sold 3.4473 million kiloliters in the first three quarters, with a ton price of 3,726.44 yuan, and a ton cost of 2,046.07 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase in sales volume and ton price [6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product mix with mid-to-high-end products, which is expected to further drive sales growth and improve pricing power compared to peers [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenue and profit growth driven by the ongoing release of reform dividends and the continued success of its flagship product U8 [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of stock performance relative to the market benchmark over the next six months [5][12]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable volume and price performance, with operational efficiency steadily improving. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.846 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to revenue growth being below expectations, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 revised to 0.852 billion, 1.053 billion, and 1.276 billion yuan respectively [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 reached 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.19%, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, up 19.84% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company reported a gross margin of 47.99% in Q3 2023, an increase of 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous year, and a net profit margin improvement to 13.37% [4]. - The average selling price per ton of beer in Q3 2024 was 4,201.98 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06% year-on-year [3]. Cost and Efficiency - The cost per ton of beer in Q3 2023 was 2,185.27 yuan, showing a minor decrease of 0.01% year-on-year, attributed to effective cost control and operational efficiency improvements [3][4]. - The report notes that the company has implemented measures such as optimizing supply chain management and enhancing management practices to improve operational efficiency [3][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.30 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 35, 28, and 23 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a rate of 5% in 2024, with a gradual decline to 4% in subsequent years [6][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 12.846 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 4.8 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 530 million yuan, growing by 19.84% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations [5] - The company is expected to maintain a net profit growth of 45%, 23%, and 20% for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 26, and 21 times. The company is strengthening its core product U8 and expanding its product matrix, which provides considerable growth potential amid the high-end trend in the beer industry [5] - The company is likely to achieve continuous stepwise development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by ongoing internal management improvements and capacity optimization [5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 10.50 yuan - One-year high/low: 12.33/7.59 yuan - Market capitalization: 26.351 billion yuan [2] Financial Data - Net asset per share: 5.27 yuan - Asset-liability ratio: 36.18% - Total shares: 2,819 million, circulating A shares: 2,510 million [3] Sales and Profitability - Q3 beer sales volume was 3.4474 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.48%, with a Q3 average price of 4,201.98 yuan/ton, remaining flat year-on-year. The company aims to enhance channel coverage and control pricing for U8, which may improve future pricing potential [6] - The company achieved a gross margin of 47.99% in Q3, with a net profit margin of 11%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percentage points [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 15.122 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4%. The net profit forecast for 2024 is 935 million yuan, with a growth rate of 45.1% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.846 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in dining demand and the continued growth of its U8 flagship product, with projected revenues for 2024-2026 increasing by 6.6%, 6.4%, and 6.4% respectively [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.19%, and a net profit of 530 million yuan, up 19.84% year-on-year [1] - The company’s beer sales volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.4473 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 0.48% [1] - The average price per ton of beer in Q3 2024 was approximately 4,201.98 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 0.06% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 47.99%, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to 11.04% [1] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 15.152 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6%, and net profits of 953 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [3][2] - For 2025 and 2026, revenues are projected to be 16.128 billion yuan and 17.157 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.293 billion yuan and 1.609 billion yuan respectively [3][2]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.26 ——2024 年三季报点评 毛销差提升明显，提质增效持续 燕京啤酒(000729) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|--------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 陈力宇 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38677618 | | | | | | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | chenli ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience with sales outperforming the market, and profits are steadily improving. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 12.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.73% [3]. - The U8 product line continues to perform well, contributing to the company's growth strategy. The company is also benefiting from a high proportion of non-current channel sales, which mitigates the impact of weak demand in on-premise consumption scenarios [3][4]. - Cost management has improved, leading to better gross profit margins. The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 47.99%, with a slight year-on-year increase [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.61 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.84%, and a net profit of 5.20 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.68% [3]. - The company expects revenue growth of 6.7%, 5.8%, and 5.4% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected to grow by 63.7%, 34.3%, and 25.4% in the same period [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its profit margin elasticity due to ongoing reforms and the successful rollout of the U8 product line. The national expansion strategy for U8 is expected to continue driving growth [4]. - The company plans to enhance operational efficiency and optimize its supply chain, which is anticipated to further improve profit margins [4].

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