证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 建筑材料 预计建材需求旺季不旺，淡季不淡 2025 年 5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日建筑材料板块（SW）上涨 0.92%，其中水泥 （SW）上涨 0.57%，玻璃制造（SW）上涨 0.38%，玻纤制造（SW）下 跌 0.39%，装修建材（SW）上涨 1.85%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超 额收益-0.07%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为-0.14 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周国新办发布会发布一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期，总量方面，降 低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，地产方面， 降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点，5 年期以上首套房利率由 2.85%降至 2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整，此外，会议还指出加快 出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，助力持续巩固房地产市 场稳定态势。根据 wind 统计，2025 年 4 月地方政府债总发行量 6932.91 亿元，发行金额同比 2024 年 4 月增长 101.6%，截至目前，2025 年一般 债 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23][28] Core Views - The company demonstrates balanced development through both organic growth and acquisitions, with its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy continuing to deliver growth [23][5] - The company maintains a leading position in the gypsum board industry, with significant contributions from its waterproof and coating businesses [23][8] - The company plans to establish a new industrial coating production base with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons, further enhancing its growth prospects [23][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.45% [8][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 842 million yuan, up 2.46% year-on-year and 67.82% quarter-on-quarter [8][3] - The company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 28.94%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year and 1.96 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.68%, slightly down by 0.27 percentage points year-on-year but up 4.01 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][13] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The company experienced a net cash outflow from operating activities of 222 million yuan in Q1 2025, compared to a net outflow of 26 million yuan in the same period last year [20][3] - Accounts receivable and notes stood at 5.11 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, indicating effective risk management and high-quality development [20][3] - The accounts receivable turnover rate was 1.69 times, and the inventory turnover rate was 1.65 times, reflecting steady operational efficiency improvements [20][3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 2.61, 3.00, and 3.38 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.2, 9.8, and 8.7 times [4][23] - Projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28.144 billion, 31.556 billion, and 34.810 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 9.0%, 12.1%, and 10.3% [4][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23][28] Core Views - The company demonstrates balanced development through both organic growth and acquisitions, with its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy continuing to deliver growth [23] - The company maintains its leading position in the gypsum board industry while expanding its waterproof and coating businesses, contributing to overall growth [23] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.61, 3.00, and 3.38 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2, 9.8, and 8.7 times [23] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.246 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.45% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 842 million CNY, up 2.46% year-on-year and 67.82% quarter-on-quarter [1][8] - The comprehensive gross margin improved to 28.94%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.29 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.96 percentage points [2][13] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.68%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.27 percentage points but an increase of 4.01 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][13] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The company reported a net cash outflow from operating activities of 222 million CNY in Q1 2025, compared to a net outflow of 26 million CNY in the same period last year [3][20] - Accounts receivable and notes stood at 5.11 billion CNY, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, indicating effective risk management and high-quality development [20] - The accounts receivable turnover rate was 1.69 times, and the inventory turnover rate was 1.65 times, reflecting steady operational efficiency improvements [20]

Investment Rating - The report highlights a "Buy" rating for seven selected stocks within the property value chain, indicating a positive outlook for these companies as they are well-positioned to benefit from recovering housing upgrade needs and building renovation demand [3][34]. Core Insights - The property value chain is expected to see a significant shift towards domestic demand, driven by potential policy support aimed at mitigating external uncertainties. This shift is projected to create a total addressable market (TAM) of Rmb5.7 trillion by 2035, representing a 70% increase compared to 2024 [3][34]. - The report anticipates an average 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in topline revenue for the property value chain companies through 2035, with a notable improvement in profitability and dividend yields due to operational efficiencies and disciplined capital expenditures [5][34]. Summary by Sections Property Value Chain Stocks - The report identifies seven stocks (CRL, Yuhong, BNBM, Kinlong, Robam, KE, and Greentown Service) as beneficiaries of domestic stimulus, all rated as "Buy" [3][34][18]. Executive Summary - The property construction value chain, which constitutes approximately 30% of China's GDP, has faced challenges due to the downturn. However, potential policy support for domestic demand is expected to accelerate housing upgrades and boost secondary market transactions [29][34]. Implications for the Value Chain - The report outlines three main implications for the value chain: a decline in demand for building products, a consolidation of the developer industry, and a significant shift towards secondary market transactions, which are projected to account for 66% of total housing transactions by 2035 [31][32][51]. Housing Market Outlook - By 2035, housing demand is expected to be 40% below peak levels, with a significant portion coming from Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities. The secondary market is projected to overtake the primary market in terms of transaction volume and value [42][51]. Renovation Demand - Renovation demand is anticipated to nearly double by 2035, contributing approximately 60% of total construction gross floor area (GFA), which will help offset the decline in new builds [54][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The sales decline of the top 100 real estate companies has stabilized, with a year-on-year sales amount decrease of 7.8% and a sales area decrease of 18.9% from January to April 2025, showing a significant narrowing compared to the previous year [5][6] - Cement prices continue to decline, while prices for fiberglass from small and medium enterprises are loosening [5][6] - Recommendations include focusing on the African supply chain and computing power chain, with leading companies in existing markets being the main focus for the year [8][9] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April 2025, the year-on-year sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 10.3%, and the sales area decreased by 18.3%, showing slight improvement compared to the previous month [5][6] - The sales amount in April decreased by 12.4% month-on-month, which is better than 2024 but weaker than the average from 2018 to 2024 [5] Cement Market - As of late April, domestic cement market demand has slightly improved, with a national shipment rate of 49.3%, up by approximately 2.1 percentage points month-on-month but down by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6][23] - The national average cement price is 391.94 yuan/ton, down by 3.06 yuan/ton month-on-month but up by 27.74 yuan/ton year-on-year [24] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market is experiencing weak transactions, with limited price adjustments and general market demand [7][34] - The national average glass price is 75.13 yuan/weight box, up by 0.06 yuan/weight box month-on-month but down by 17.23 yuan/weight box year-on-year [37] Fiberglass Market - The market for non-alkali roving has seen price loosening among some small and medium enterprises, with overall trading activity declining [42] - The electronic yarn market prices have remained stable, with downstream purchasing being demand-driven [42] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the African supply chain, particularly highlighting Keda Manufacturing as a leading local player with advantages in production, channels, and brand [8] - In the computing power chain, Zhongcai Technology is recommended as a leading domestic special fiberglass cloth manufacturer benefiting from domestic substitution [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The short-term economic downturn is causing the real estate chain to hover at the bottom, but the overall direction remains positive with expectations for recovery in the home improvement sector by Q3 2025 [3][4] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, with the national average price at 387.7 RMB/ton, down 3.2 RMB/ton from last week but up 29.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][19] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for building materials, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting domestic consumption [15] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The building materials sector saw a decline of 2.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.43% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-valuation leading companies and expansion-oriented firms as key investment targets [3][4] 2. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.8% this week, with regional variations noted [18] - The average cement inventory level is at 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week [27] - The report anticipates a weak but stable price trend moving forward due to ongoing supply-demand adjustments [4][18] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The glass fiber industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with demand from wind power and thermoplastics sectors continuing to grow [12] - The report suggests that leading companies may benefit from structural advantages and cost efficiencies [12] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is currently facing a weak balance between supply and demand, with slow inventory depletion [13] - The report indicates that rising costs from petroleum coke may impact profitability, but leading companies are expected to maintain competitive advantages [14] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that government policies are increasingly focused on stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to positively impact the building materials sector [15] - The anticipated implementation of "old-for-new" policies in 2025 is expected to further boost demand for home improvement materials [15] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of price changes in the cement market, highlighting significant regional differences [20] - It also includes a summary of the performance of various building materials companies, emphasizing those with strong growth potential and competitive advantages [16][17]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The new housing market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in new home transactions in major cities, indicating a potential boost in demand for construction materials [2][20] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, but demand is expected to improve as weather conditions stabilize and construction activities pick up [3][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption and infrastructure investment, particularly in light of the "equal tariff" environment, which is expected to strengthen domestic demand [7][9] Summary by Sections Housing Market - In the 18th week of the year, new home transaction area in 30 major cities reached 165.19 million square meters, up 21% year-on-year and 6.19% month-on-month [2][20] - The total transaction area for new homes in these cities is 29.32 million square meters, showing no year-on-year change [2][20] - Second-hand home transactions in 15 monitored cities increased by 56% year-on-year but saw a significant month-on-month decline [21] Cement Market - The national average cement price is 390.83 yuan per ton, down 0.8% from the previous week, with price increases mainly in Liaoning and Jilin [3][23] - The cement market is expected to stabilize as demand improves and companies engage in peak-shifting production practices [23] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Oriental Yuhong**, **Weixing New Materials**, and **Tubaobao** for their strong operational resilience and high dividends [7] - **China Construction** and **China Communications Construction** as beneficiaries of increased infrastructure investment [7] - **Jinchengxin** for its strong performance in copper resource development [7] - **Heilongjiang Hongda** and **Xuefeng Technology** in the civil explosives sector due to high demand [7] Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic substitution in various sectors, particularly in ship coatings and industrial coatings, with companies like **Maijia Xincai** and **Songjing Coatings** positioned to benefit [7] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to gain momentum, benefiting international engineering companies such as **China Construction** and **China Metallurgical** [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The market is transitioning from "weak reality, weak expectations" to "stable reality, strong expectations," with a focus on EPS and PE dynamics. The current trading logic reflects a typical "Davis Double Play" scenario, where PE fluctuations are crucial for market performance [5] - The report suggests that the cyclical recovery is expected to be sustainable, with potential policy support for domestic demand, particularly in consumption and manufacturing sectors. This is seen as a more favorable and sustainable choice compared to traditional investments [5] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions indicate a turning point for many cyclical products, with EPS expected to bottom out before supply and demand, leading to a potential recovery in performance [5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) decreased by 2.1%, with sub-sectors like cement and glass fiber also showing declines of 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. Notable stock performances included Sichuan Jinding (+13.3%) and Hanjian Heshan (+8.0%) [9] 1.2. Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, top 100 real estate companies spent 360.8 billion yuan on land, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. However, their sales totaled 1,119.86 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction technologies across various sectors, including construction materials [16] 2. Data Tracking 2.1. Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 387.7 yuan/ton, down 3.2 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 29.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement inventory ratio is 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [17] 2.2. Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1,423.0 yuan/ton, up 1.3 yuan/ton month-on-month but down 393.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels have increased by 0.1% month-on-month [32] 2.3. Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/sqm, stable month-on-month but down 4.1 yuan/sqm year-on-year. The production capacity is 98,690 tons/day, up 2.1% month-on-month [37] 2.4. Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4,705.0 yuan/ton, down 40.0 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 525.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [44] 2.5. Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable month-on-month but down 2.0 yuan/kg year-on-year. The average operating rate for carbon fiber companies is 60.62%, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month [47] 3. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting stock prices, market capitalization, EPS, PE, and PB ratios for various firms in the construction materials sector [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by robust growth in its two main business segments, with significant contributions from both waterproofing and coating businesses. The international business is also showing strong growth [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.246 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 842 million yuan, up 2.46% year-on-year and 67.82% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The company is expanding its coating business, which saw a remarkable revenue increase of 111.44% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 908 million yuan [6]. - The report forecasts steady revenue growth for the company, with projected revenues of 29.51 billion yuan in 2025, 32.93 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.27 billion yuan in 2027 [2][8]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financial metrics include: - Revenue growth rates of 15.14% for 2024, 14.30% for 2025, 11.58% for 2026, and 7.10% for 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.48 billion yuan in 2025, 5.19 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.74 billion yuan in 2027 [2]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 2.65 yuan in 2025, 3.07 yuan in 2026, and 3.40 yuan in 2027 [2]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 13.15 in 2024 to 8.35 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [2][8]. Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "One Body, Two Wings" strategy, focusing on expanding its waterproofing and coating businesses while solidifying its leading position in the gypsum board market [6]. - A new industrial coating production base is planned in Anhui, which will enhance the company's market competitiveness in central and southwestern China [6].