Core Viewpoint - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight increase of 0.24% on January 23, with Luoyang Energy leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.79% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks in the renovation and building materials sector included: - Luoyang Energy (002088) with a closing price of 12.87, up 10.00% and a trading volume of 198,000 shares, totaling 247 million yuan [1]. - Youbang Ceiling (002718) closed at 67.38, up 6.99% with a trading volume of 30,700 shares, totaling 200 million yuan [1]. - Zhonggang Luonai (611889) closed at 7.52, up 6.67% with a trading volume of 755,000 shares, totaling 562 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall market saw a net outflow of 48.64 million yuan from the renovation and building materials sector, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 233 million yuan [2]. - The main funds showed a mixed trend, with significant outflows from several stocks, including: - Zhonggang Luonai (611889) with a net inflow of 73.53 million yuan from main funds but a net outflow of 15.64 million yuan from speculative funds [3]. - Luoyang Energy (002088) had a net inflow of 52.05 million yuan from main funds, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 20.99 million yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both the construction and building materials sectors [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of balanced allocation between traditional cyclical building materials and emerging technology growth opportunities, driven by supportive real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market [1]. - The path for resolving real estate debt is becoming clearer, with significant credit impairment already reflected in the consumption building materials sector, suggesting a narrowing of credit impairment risk exposure [2]. - The decline in real estate construction is expected to slow, with price increases for construction materials continuing, particularly benefiting leading companies in the sector [3]. - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of stabilization, with "stock renovation" expected to be a key theme in 2026, potentially boosting demand for decorative and functional building materials [4]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of the sector [1]. - Data indicates that the real estate market is beginning to stabilize, with some companies showing signs of revenue improvement due to increased market share and expansion into overseas markets [1]. Credit Impairment and Debt Resolution - Vanke's recent bondholder meeting approved a significant extension plan, indicating a rational approach to debt resolution within the industry [2]. - Most building materials companies have already accounted for substantial credit impairments, with many reporting over 50% impairment on specific items [2]. Construction Activity and Material Pricing - Real estate sales, new construction, and completion areas have shown declines of 8.7%, 20.4%, and 18.1% year-on-year, respectively, but the rate of decline is expected to slow [3]. - Leading companies in the sector have begun to implement price increases for construction materials, indicating a potential turning point in the market [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market and Renovation Demand - The retail sales of construction and decoration materials reached 167.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a decline of 2.7% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from previous quarters [4]. - The report notes a decrease in the listing volume of second-hand homes, suggesting a tightening supply that could lead to price improvements [4]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - China Liansu (2128 HK) with a target price of 6.35 yuan - Weixing New Materials (002372 CH) with a target price of 14.34 yuan - Rabbit Baby (002043 CH) with a target price of 16.01 yuan - Beixin Building Materials (000786 CH) with a target price of 29.64 yuan - Dongfang Yuhong (002271 CH) with a target price of 17.19 yuan [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share building materials sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with multiple stocks showing active performance, driven by market expectations for a cyclical recovery in the sector [1] Group 1: Policy and Economic Support - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has released an opinion on improving housing quality, aiming for significant enhancements in housing standards, design, materials, construction, and operation by 2030, which directly benefits the consumption of building materials, waterproofing, and glass sectors [1] - The central bank has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year re-lending rate reduced from 1.5% to 1.25%, aimed at promoting stable economic growth and providing liquidity support for the recovery of real estate and infrastructure sectors, indirectly boosting demand in the building materials industry [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Supply Chain Developments - The issuance of special bonds by local governments has accelerated, with a total issuance scale of 0.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.10 trillion yuan year-on-year, easing government fiscal pressure and supporting demand for cement and pipe materials through accelerated municipal engineering and pipeline construction projects [2] - The building materials industry has seen improvements in supply-demand dynamics after five years of capacity clearance, with the waterproofing sector's concentration rapidly increasing, and a significant reduction in floating glass daily melting capacity by 27,200 tons compared to the 2021 peak, alongside a 160 million ton capacity exit in the cement industry, alleviating supply pressures and laying the foundation for profit recovery [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Benefits - The waterproofing industry is expected to benefit from housing quality improvement policies, the release of renovation demand, and supply-side clearance, with leading companies projected to experience revenue declines significantly lower than the industry average from 2021 to 2024, and further price increases anticipated in 2025 [3] - The glass processing industry is poised to gain from accelerated cold repairs in floating glass production capacity and a balanced supply-demand structure, alongside increased demand for high-end glass driven by housing quality improvements [3] - The pipe and pipeline industry is supported by the rapid implementation of infrastructure projects and municipal pipeline renovation policies, with municipal engineering projects accelerating, directly benefiting related pipe material companies from the recovery in infrastructure demand [3]

Market Performance - The renovation and building materials sector increased by 4.03% compared to the previous trading day, with N国亮 leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] Stock Highlights - N国亮 (code: 920076) saw a significant rise of 160.78%, closing at 28.06 with a trading volume of 161,500 shares and a transaction value of 483 million [1] - 科顺股份 (code: 300737) increased by 20.00%, closing at 6.96 with a trading volume of 1,268,900 shares and a transaction value of 819 million [1] - 万里石 (code: 002785) rose by 9.93%, closing at 43.05 with a trading volume of less than 302,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.288 billion [1] - 东方雨虹 (code: 002271) increased by 8.14%, closing at 17.01 with a trading volume of 947,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.577 billion [1] Capital Flow - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a net inflow of 68.06 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 64.30 million [2] - The sector saw a net outflow of 132 million from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - 科顺股份 had a net outflow of 50.83 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 1.72 million [3] - 东方雨虹 experienced a net inflow of 34.78 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 51.34 million from retail investors [3] - N国亮 had a net inflow of 11.20 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 12.43 million from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.01%, driven by gains in the building materials sector, with Jinju Group hitting the daily limit and Dongfang Yuhong rising over 8% [1] - The building materials ETFs, including E Fund and others, saw increases of over 3.8% year-to-date, with E Fund's building materials ETF showing a year-to-date gain of 10.77% [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently issued guidelines aimed at improving housing quality, targeting significant progress by 2030 in various aspects such as standards, design, materials, and construction [2] Group 2 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the real estate chain has been in decline for five years, but there are positive signals emerging. The building materials industry has faced pressures such as demand decline and increased competition, but long-term changes are now visible [3] - The report suggests that the building materials sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in housing demand, particularly in renovation and improvement of living conditions as income expectations improve [3] - Huafu Securities indicates that supply-side reforms and declining interest rates may enhance home-buying willingness, potentially stabilizing the real estate market and boosting demand for building materials [3] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Securities highlights that despite static total physical data showing a year-on-year decline, leading building materials companies have achieved revenue and profit growth through increased market share and expansion into overseas markets [4] - The growth in revenue and profitability is attributed to factors such as material upgrades driven by AI and new energy, as well as the easing of competition [4] - The intrinsic growth potential of leading building materials companies is seen as attractive, with the possibility of significant benefits if macroeconomic expectations improve [4]

Group 1 - The building materials sector experienced a significant upward trend, with Jinju Group rising over 10% [1] - Dongfang Yuhong saw an increase of more than 7% [1] - Other companies such as China Jushi, Tubao, Beixin Building Materials, and Yaopi Glass also followed the upward trend [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, indicating a "Look Forward" investment rating [3][4]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has experienced a downturn for five consecutive years, but there are emerging positive signals that warrant attention. The building materials industry has faced pressures such as declining demand, credit risk expansion, cost disturbances, and intensified competition [4][5]. - Over the past five years, the industry has undergone significant capacity clearance, with a cumulative decline of 38% in waterproof materials production from 2021 to 2024. In contrast, the top three companies in this sector have seen a revenue decline of only 20.9%, indicating a rapid increase in industry concentration [4][5]. - Strategic transformations have been completed by several leading building materials companies, enhancing their competitive positions and adapting to market changes. Companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Keshun have successfully restructured their channels and expanded into new markets [6]. - There is an anticipated surge in renovation demand due to the aging housing stock, with a significant portion of homes being over 20 years old. The report predicts that by 2025, second-hand housing transactions will account for 70% of the market, which will likely stimulate renovation activities [7][9]. - Policy adjustments have been noted, with government signals indicating support for the real estate sector, including tax incentives for housing transactions. This is expected to positively influence market sentiment and investment in the building materials sector [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The building materials industry has faced five years of challenges, but recent developments suggest a potential recovery. The report emphasizes the importance of viewing the industry from a long-term perspective [4][5]. Capacity and Production - The report highlights a significant reduction in production capacity across various segments, including a 38% decline in waterproof materials and a 1.6 billion ton reduction in cement capacity, which has alleviated supply pressures [4][5]. Strategic Transformations - Notable companies have successfully navigated strategic transformations, with improvements in asset quality and revenue growth. For instance, Dongfang Yuhong has seen a substantial increase in retail business revenue [6]. Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a shift in demand dynamics, particularly in the renovation market, driven by an aging housing stock and changing consumer preferences. This is expected to lead to increased demand for building materials [7]. Policy Environment - Recent policy changes are viewed as supportive of the real estate market, with indications of government backing for housing transactions and urban renewal initiatives [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core consumer building materials stocks, particularly those positioned to benefit from anticipated increases in construction activity and renovation demand [9].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Real Estate Supply Chain Industry Overview - The real estate supply chain, particularly in the consumer building materials sector, has undergone significant changes over the past four years, with a turning point expected in Q3 2025 when leading companies will see revenue and profit growth year-on-year in Q4 2025, indicating independent growth through strategies like stock renovation, channel expansion, and internationalization despite ongoing industry pressures [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply Side Changes**: - Companies are enhancing profits through asset impairment, while many peers are exiting or transforming their businesses. The consumer building materials sector is currently undervalued, with most leading companies emerging from difficulties, and a growth trend expected to continue into 2026 [3] - The competition among leading companies is slowing, with strategies such as channel expansion and product diversification being employed to seek new growth points. Price increases in coatings and waterproof materials are anticipated in 2025, with gypsum board also expected to see price hikes in 2026, reflecting a trend of compromise and coexistence among leading firms [4] - **Impact of Urban Renewal Policies**: - Urban renewal policies are significantly boosting the building materials industry, with measures aimed at accelerating the transformation of the stock market to address challenges posed by a declining new housing market. By the end of 2024, there will be approximately 420 million housing units and over 50 billion square meters of total construction area in urban and rural areas, providing substantial demand support for the building materials sector [5] - **Performance in Specific Segments**: - The coatings sector has seen multiple price increases since 2021, with another expected in Q1 2025. Waterproof materials are also set for price hikes in mid-2025, while gypsum board has already undergone several price adjustments. These price changes indicate a shift in demand from the supply side, with these segments stabilizing prices and gradually restoring profitability during a demand downturn [6] - **Revenue Structure Adjustment and Cost Reduction**: - Building materials companies are shifting from reliance on large B clients (real estate bulk purchases) to small B and C end customers (retail market), improving gross margins through channel adjustments and product upgrades. Cost reduction and efficiency measures are expected to show results post-2025, with a notable decrease in expense ratios and improved financial conditions [7] Additional Important Insights - **Current Valuation of the Consumer Building Materials Sector**: - The sector is currently undervalued, showing signs of recovery after several years of adjustment. Leading companies are expected to continue this growth trend into 2026, with ongoing cost reduction measures and diminishing historical issues impacting financial reports, making it a favorable investment opportunity [8] - **Market Expectations and Demand Characteristics**: - Market expectations for the consumer building materials sector are low, with overall demand recovery anticipated to take time. However, there are signs of stabilization and differentiation, such as leading coatings companies exploring the second-hand housing market and non-housing demand growth in sectors like pipes and waterproof materials [9][10] - **Price Elasticity and Supply Structure Expectations**: - Current profit forecasts and valuations for companies have not fully reflected price elasticity. The supply structure has undergone deep adjustments, with small capacities exiting the market, leading to a concentration of market share among companies with brand, channel, and resource advantages, enhancing their pricing power and management capabilities [11] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to focus on companies such as Three Trees, Oriental Yuhong, Henkel Group, and Rabbit Baby, as well as Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, China Liansu, and ASEAN Holdings, which are decoupling from real estate and transitioning towards C-end and small B clients, with many beginning to expand internationally [12] - **Future Industry Outlook**: - Companies in the industry are making significant efforts to adapt to the current environment, including international expansion, product category diversification, and exploring structural opportunities in the second-hand housing market. While high expectations for rapid demand recovery are tempered, there is confidence that more companies will find recovery opportunities over time, with more sub-sectors expected to stabilize in 2026 [13]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The real estate and building materials sector experienced a significant increase, primarily driven by market rumors regarding policy relaxation in Shanghai and expectations of more substantial policy measures to follow [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - A reassessment of the real estate and related sectors is deemed necessary at this juncture [2] - Key points highlighted in the commentary from "Qiushi" include: 1. Recognition of real estate as a significant financial asset, central to household wealth [3] 2. The need for comprehensive policy measures rather than incremental adjustments, indicating potential for new expectations regarding policy strength and breadth [3] - Statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in real estate investment by 17% year-on-year, new construction down by 20%, completions down by 18%, sales area down by 9%, and sales revenue down by 13% [3] - Despite the overall decline in data, the marginal negative impact on the building materials industry has noticeably weakened [3] - The fundamental investment logic in the building materials sector is centered on "supply-side improvement" preceding "demand-side recovery" [3] - Under the "anti-involution" policy direction, price coordination in industries like cement is beginning to show results, with profit levels continuing to recover [3] - The consumer building materials sector, including waterproofing and coatings, is entering the final phase of clearing out excess, with an improved competitive landscape and positive changes in gross margins and expense ratios for leading companies in specific segments [3] Recommendations - Recommended to focus on high-credit, high-quality real estate developers benefiting from policy rumors, such as China Merchants Shekou and Binjiang Group [4] - Suggested to pay attention to leading companies in the real estate supply chain that are expected to benefit from anticipated demand recovery, including Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

志特新材涨停创新高，九鼎新材2连板，海螺水泥、东方雨虹、三棵树、北新建材、伟星新材跟涨。 (本文来自第一财经) ...