当前时点地产近况更新和产业链投资机会梳理 20251120 摘要 房地产市场持续承压，1-10 月全国房产累计销量和金额分别同比下降 7%和 10%，投资和施工端压力加剧，新开工面积和拿地面积较峰值时 下跌约 70%，房价下跌 35%以上，市场处于加速寻底状态。 核心城市房价快速下跌或难持续，一线城市房价调整对居民资产端冲击 显著，目前更可能是情绪化的快速出清阶段，以上海为例，2026 年初 五年限售解禁期或带来一定下跌，但总体上距离周期底部已经不远。 政策层面，核心城市房价走弱或促使未来政策力度加大，全国层面新增 个人住房贷款贴息政策或在评估中，提高个人住房贷款利息所得税专项 扣除、进一步下调住房交易契税等政策也在酝酿中。 建材行业需关注顶层持续关注并琢磨支持政策，优秀上市公司将先于行 业见底，随着地产救市措施逐步落实，有望带动整体市场回暖，三棵树 等企业虽优于行业平均水平，但整体市场环境仍充满挑战。 大类资产配置应关注低位有边际变化或赔率较高的板块，如地产链，同 时需谨慎考虑结构性流动性担忧问题，海螺水泥因国内地产及供需关系 处于低位，有较好的配置价值，重视反内卷政策可能带来的供给侧改革 机会。 Q&A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on overseas growth and technology sectors, emphasizing the importance of identifying companies capable of navigating overseas cycles and accelerating domestic technology development [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of changes in the US interest rate stance on market sentiment, particularly affecting high-valuation sectors linked to overseas economies. It underscores the significance of finding resilient companies in overseas markets and the opportunity for domestic technology supply chain development [2][12]. - The report expresses optimism for the overseas and AI new materials sectors, citing the recent listing of "Le Shushi," a leading fast-moving consumer goods company in East and West Africa, as a notable addition to the overseas sector [2][12]. - In the traditional building materials and construction sectors, the focus has shifted to low-valuation or less-followed segments, with dividend policies becoming a key consideration. Companies are adapting to industry challenges by reducing capital expenditures and increasing dividends [3][13]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The building materials index decreased by 6.46% during the week, with specific declines in glass manufacturing (-9.93%), fiberglass (-11.18%), and cement manufacturing (-6.06%) [17]. Price Changes in Building Materials - National cement prices slightly decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with regional variations in price movements. Southern regions showed a slight increase in demand, while northern regions faced a decline due to weather conditions [26]. - The average price of float glass was reported at 1168.37 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.26% week-on-week, with inventory levels increasing [38][52]. Sector Analysis - In the cement sector, the average price was 351 RMB/ton, down 78 RMB/ton year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 45.7% [14]. - The fiberglass market showed stability in pricing, with the average price for 2400tex direct yarn at 3531.75 RMB/ton, a slight increase of 0.2% week-on-week [57]. - The report notes that the demand for construction materials remains weak, particularly in the completion phase, while retail segments show stable growth [16].

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation in its development logic, shifting from a focus on "supply of goods" to prioritizing "people" and ensuring public welfare [4][8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" had limited focus on real estate, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and risk management in the sector [7][31] Group 1: Policy Signals and Development Logic - The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes key proposals for the real estate sector, such as building "safe, comfortable, green, and smart" homes and optimizing the supply of affordable housing [3][4] - The central government is placing significant emphasis on risk prevention in real estate, recognizing its impact on local government debt and financial institutions [7][31] Group 2: Industry Transformation and Quality Improvement - The industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to enhancing product quality, with a new standard for housing that includes safety, comfort, and sustainability [8][12] - The concept of "good housing" is being defined with specific criteria, including safety measures, comfort metrics, and green building materials [13][18] Group 3: Corporate Strategies and Market Dynamics - Real estate companies are shifting their roles from merely building and selling homes to providing comprehensive lifecycle services [14][30] - Companies like Beixin Building Materials are already implementing strategic transformations to focus on quality and service, addressing consumer pain points [14][19] Group 4: Industry Collaboration and Ecosystem Development - There is a consensus on the need for an upgraded industrial chain to support the construction of "good housing," which will drive demand and stimulate economic growth [24][31] - The integration of industrialization, green technology, and digitalization is essential for breaking down barriers in design, production, and construction [26][27]

Group 1 - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight increase, closing at 16,438.23 points with a growth rate of 0.27% [1] - Several stocks in the renovation and building materials sector saw price increases, with Haolaike (603898) leading at 13.97 CNY per share, up 10.00% [1] - Yong'an Forestry (000663) and Beixin Building Materials (000786) also showed significant gains, with increases of 9.99% and 5.69% respectively [1] Group 2 - According to HuLong Securities, the building materials industry is expected to see a slight decline in operating income in the first three quarters of 2025, but profitability is improving [2] - The cement and glass industries are anticipated to rebound in profitability in the fourth quarter, driven by high demand for high-end fiberglass [2] - Continuous real estate policy support is expected to facilitate industry valuation recovery, with measures such as relaxed purchase restrictions and optimized public housing funds being implemented [2]

证券之星消息，11月20日，深证国企股东回报R（470064）指数报收于2243.24点，涨0.03%，成交219.45 亿元，换手率0.91%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有16家，北新建材以5.69%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有27 家，飞亚达以2.81%的跌幅领跌。 深证国企股东回报R（470064）指数十大成份股详情如下： | 证券代码 | 股票简称 | 权重 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | 总市值(亿元) | | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | sz000725 | 京东方A | 9.31% | 3.90 | -0.51% | | 1459.14 | 电子 | | sz002415 | 海康威视 | 7.97% | 30.23 | -0.62% | | 2770.54 | 十算机 | | sz000858 | 五根液 | 7.71% | 120.25 | 0.30% | 4 P | 4667.63 | 食品饮料 | | sz000568 | 泸州老窖 | 6.59% | 136.85 | -0.21% | A | 2014.37 ...

证券之星消息，11月20日装修建材板块较上一交易日上涨1.99%，北新建材领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3931.05，下跌0.4%。深证成指报收于12980.82，下跌0.76%。装修建材板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日装修建材板块主力资金净流出3224.61万元，游资资金净流出246.67万元，散户 资金净流入3471.27万元。装修建材板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000786 | 北新建材 | 25.27 | 5.69% | 44.32万 | | 11.09亿 | | 300737 | 科顺股份 | 5.40 | 5.68% | 47.60万 | | 2.54亿 | | 002043 | 兔宝宝 | 13.90 | 3.50% | 12.81万 | | 1.78亿 | | 002271 | 东方雨虹 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong recovery in the cement and fiberglass sectors, with unique performance from various consumer building materials stocks driven by anti-involution, specialty fabrics, and overseas expansion [3][11]. - In 2026, the outlook for the building materials industry includes accelerated overseas expansion, benefiting companies that have adjusted their channel, product, and sales structures over the past four years [3][11]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Huaxin Cement, Keda Manufacturing, and Western Cement, which are positioned well for overseas growth [3][17]. Group 2 - The building materials sector outperformed the CSI 300 index with a cumulative increase of 22.35% from the beginning of 2025 to November 14, 2025, driven by high demand for specialty fiberglass and other catalysts [8][11]. - The report notes that the cement and fiberglass sectors have achieved profit recovery, with the fiberglass sector showing significant revenue growth [11][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets, particularly in Africa, where population growth and urbanization present substantial opportunities for building materials companies [27][35]. Group 3 - The report discusses the transformation of distribution channels in the consumer building materials sector, highlighting companies like Sanhe Tree and Dongpeng Holdings that have successfully adapted to market changes [3][17]. - The consumer building materials segment is expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, with companies like China Liansu and Beixin Building Materials showing potential for growth [3][11]. - The report indicates that the fiberglass sector is experiencing stable profit improvements, with companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material expected to perform well [3][17]. Group 4 - The report outlines the significant growth potential in the fiberglass market, with expectations for continued high demand for specialty fabrics [3][17]. - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Chinese companies in the global market, particularly in cement production, where China accounts for 47% of global output [34][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas expansion for companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing, which are actively increasing their production capacities in emerging markets [42][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - Employment data shows improvement, and there are expectations for policy support [1] - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 0.97%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.05% [3] - The cement market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, particularly in southern regions, while prices are expected to remain stable [5][10] - The glass market is under pressure with high inventory levels and weak demand, but medium-term supply-side adjustments are anticipated [41][43] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see improved profitability due to supply constraints and increasing demand from new applications [5] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.3 RMB/ton, up 1.2 RMB/ton from last week but down 74.8 RMB/ton from the same period last year. The average cement inventory level is 69.8%, with an average shipment rate of 46.2% [11][18] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 1.9 RMB/ton from last week and down 258.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels are at 5962 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 54 million from last week [43][45] - **Fiberglass**: Prices for fiberglass remain stable, with a focus on high-end products. The market is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints persist [5] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic indicators, with a focus on companies involved in the export supply chain and home renovation [3][5] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and domestic semiconductor development, recommending companies in the cleanroom engineering sector [5] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector has shown a positive trend compared to broader market indices, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The report suggests that the cement industry is at a historical low in terms of price-to-book ratios, presenting opportunities for investment as policies are expected to support recovery [5][10]

证券日报网讯北新建材（000786）11月14日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年11月10日， 公司股东总户数约为8.2万户。 ...

乐居财经 李兰前不久，北新建材(000786.SZ)发布2025年三季度报告，公司营收、净利双下滑。 前三季度，北新建材营业收入199.05亿元，同比减少2.25%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润25.86亿元， 同比减少17.77%。 这一业绩表现与上半年趋势一致，2025上半年，北新建材营业收入135.58亿元，同比减少0.29%；归属 于上市公司股东的净利润19.3亿元，同比减少12.85%。 在管理层方面，北新建材副总经理邱洪的职业轨迹引人关注。邱洪现任北新建材副总经理，该任职自 2024年6月至今。在此之前，他于2023年3月至2024年6月担任公司总经理助理，并自2022年3月至2025年 2月任龙牌公司总经理。 邱洪在北新建材体系内拥有丰富的管理经验。2020年6月至 2022年3月，他担任北新建材北方公司总经 理，而更早的2015年3月至2022年3月期间，他任北新建材南方公司总经理。 值得关注的是，2025年年初，北新建材内部经历了一系列人事变动。今年1月16日，北新建材发布公 告，董事长薛忠民、副董事长贾同春及两名高级管理人员辞任，选举管理为公司第七届董事会董事长。 截至11月13日收盘，北新 ...