1 证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 酒鬼酒股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-9-20 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2024-24 出席本次 2024 年半年度网上业绩说明会的人员有：公司副董事 长、总经理郑轶，独立董事李世辉，董事会秘书汤振羽，财务总监赵 春雷，酒鬼湘泉销售管理中心副总经理王恒俊，证券事务代表宋家麒。 敬请广大投资者积极参与。 酒鬼酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 8 月 29 日在巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn/）上披露了《2024 年 半年度报告》。 为便于广大投资者进一步了解公司 2024 年半年度经营情况，公 司定于 2024 年 9 月 19 日（星期四）下午 15:30 至 16:30 采用网络远 程的方式举行 2024 年半年度网上业绩说明会。投资者可登陆网站 https://eseb.cn/1hJQOTbhIDm 参与互动交流。为广泛听取投资者的 意见和建议，提前向投资者征集问题，提问通道自发出公告之日起开 放。 参与方式一：登录网站 https://eseb.cn/1hJQOTbhIDm； 参与方式二：微信扫一扫以下二维码： 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 关于召开2024年半年度网上业绩说明会的公 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company, indicating a cautious approach due to expected performance adjustments in the near term [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recovery in liquor consumption has not met expectations, leading to slower payment collection from distributors [1]. - The company is focusing on strategic improvements and has initiated sample markets to enhance sales performance [4]. - Financial forecasts indicate a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with expectations of gradual recovery in subsequent years [5][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - For 2022A, the company reported revenue of 4,050 million yuan, which is expected to decline to 2,830 million yuan in 2023A, and further to 2,341 million yuan in 2024E, reflecting a growth rate of -30% and -17% respectively [1]. - Net profit is projected to decrease from 1,049 million yuan in 2022A to 548 million yuan in 2023A, and further to 339 million yuan in 2024E, with a growth rate of -48% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 3.23 yuan in 2022A to 1.69 yuan in 2023A, and further to 1.04 yuan in 2024E [1]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to rise significantly from 11.0 in 2022A to 34.1 in 2024E, indicating a potential overvaluation in the near term [1]. Product Performance - The report notes that the company's flagship product series, "Jiugui," experienced a revenue decline of 30.11% in the first half of 2024, with both sales volume and price per ton decreasing [3]. - The "Neican" series saw a more substantial decline of 60.85% in revenue, with significant drops in both sales volume and price [3]. - Conversely, the "Xiangquan" series achieved a revenue increase of 36.33% in the same period, driven by improved sales volume [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a focused strategy to enhance consumer engagement and has launched 11 sample markets to strengthen its market presence [4]. - Ongoing reforms in cost management are aimed at alleviating short-term profit pressures while maintaining flexibility in sales expenses [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set to achieve a relative return of over 20% within six months [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2024 revenues of 5.00 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.48 billion yuan, down 60.87% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to see revenue recovery from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 24.3 billion yuan, 27.1 billion yuan, and 29.9 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.9 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan, and 5.1 billion yuan for the same period [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company's revenue from various segments was as follows: 1.73 billion yuan from Neican, 5.91 billion yuan from Jiugui, 0.49 billion yuan from Xiangquan, and 1.77 billion yuan from other sources, with respective year-on-year changes of -60.85%, -30.11%, +36.33%, and -17.51% [1]. - The average dealer scale decreased by 12.22% year-on-year to 760,800 yuan per dealer, with a net reduction of 473 dealers to a total of 1,301 [1]. - The company’s gross margin decreased by 2.23 percentage points to 75.59%, while the net margin fell by 11.59 percentage points to 9.52% in Q2 2024 [1]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2,426.63 million yuan, 2,714.73 million yuan, and 2,989.42 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 385.66 million yuan, 449.78 million yuan, and 512.38 million yuan [3][8]. - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are projected to be 30.0X, 25.7X, and 22.6X respectively [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 990 million yuan for H1 2024, a decrease of 35.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120 million yuan, down 71.3% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is undergoing a transformation in its marketing strategy, shifting from channel fee-based sales to a sales-driven growth model, which has temporarily impacted sales performance [2][3]. - The gross margin has declined, with Q1 and Q2 2024 gross margins at 71.1% and 75.6%, respectively, due to a decrease in product mix and increased sales and management expenses [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 total revenue was 990 million yuan, with Q2 revenue at 500 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 35.5% and 13.3%, respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was 120 million yuan, with Q2 net profit at 48 million yuan, showing declines of 71.3% and 60.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s revenue from different product lines showed significant variation, with the "Jiu Gui" series down 30.1% and the "Xiang Quan" series up 36.3% [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on its "Jiu Gui" and "Nei Can" product lines, enhancing market presence and optimizing the value chain [3]. - Efforts are being made to improve sales in both domestic and key external markets, with 11 model markets initiated in H1 2024 [3]. - The company is also enhancing the quality of its distributor network and improving service efficiency at retail points [3]. Profitability Forecast - EPS is projected to be 1.09 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.64 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 26, and 21 [3][4]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in sales, particularly in the "Nei Can" series, with expected sales growth rates of -30%, +6%, and +8% from 2024 to 2026 [7]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total revenue is expected to be 2.83 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 12.18% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 547.81 million yuan for 2024, down 35.44% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 75.6% for the next few years [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" rating and lowers the target price to 41.49 yuan from the previous 53.94 yuan [3][5][13]. Core Views - The company continues to experience adjustments, with a revenue decline that is narrowing. The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 13.27% year-on-year, which is slightly better than expected. The company is focusing on transforming its growth model, particularly in small regions with high market share, which is expected to stabilize its foundation for future growth [2][3][13]. - The report has revised down the earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 0.75 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 1.01 yuan respectively. This adjustment reflects the significant downward pressure on profitability during the adjustment phase [3][13]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 2.325 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.8% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 244 million yuan, down 55.4% year-on-year. The EPS for 2024 is forecasted at 0.75 yuan, with a net profit margin of 5.4% [4][12][13]. - The financial performance shows a significant drop in net profit and EPS, with the net profit margin declining to historical lows. The net profit for the first half of 2024 was 48 million yuan, down 60.87% year-on-year [14][13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is undergoing a channel model transformation, focusing on terminal and channel support, which has impacted gross sales margins. The gross sales margin decreased by 7.9 percentage points year-on-year in Q2 2024 [3][13]. - The report emphasizes the need for the company to avoid repeating past mistakes and to focus on improving its channel system and brand building. If successful, the company could enter a new phase of expansion as consumer demand recovers [3][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the report, but it suggests to "continue to pay attention" due to proactive reforms and improving channels [7][11]. Core Views - The report anticipates a weak recovery in consumption and ongoing reforms within the company, projecting revenues for 2024-2026 to be 2.207/2.348/2.578 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -22.02%/+6.42%/+9.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 208/231/256 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -62.05%/+11.32%/+10.66%. The corresponding PE valuations for 2024-2026 are projected to be 57/52/47X [3][11]. Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 999.4 million yuan, a decrease of 35.50% year-on-year, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, down 71.32% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 500 million yuan, an increase of 13.27% year-on-year, with a net profit of 48 million yuan, down 60.87% year-on-year [11][12]. - The company’s gross margin in Q2 2024 was 75.59%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix. The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 9.52%, down 11.59 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. Product and Regional Performance - The report highlights that the Xiangquan series performed well, with provincial sales outperforming those outside the province. In H1 2024, the revenue breakdown by product was as follows: Neican series 173 million yuan, Jiugui series 591 million yuan, Xiangquan series 49 million yuan, and other series 177 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -60.85%/-30.11%/+36.33%/-17.51% respectively [11][12]. - Revenue from provincial and non-provincial sales in H1 2024 was 413 million yuan and 581 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 33.68% and 36.74% [11][12]. Future Projections - The report projects that the company will continue to face challenges in the short term due to ongoing reforms, but anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins in the coming years [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6][9] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 994 million yuan, down 35.50% year-on-year, and net profit at 121 million yuan, down 71.32% year-on-year [3][4] - The second quarter showed a revenue of 500 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.27%, while net profit was 48 million yuan, down 60.87% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is actively pursuing marketing transformation and has seen a substantial increase in consumer engagement through activities such as scanning and banquet events [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 48.80% in Q1 and a reduced decline of 13.27% in Q2, indicating a gradual recovery [4][6] - The revenue breakdown shows significant declines in certain product lines, with "Neican" down 60.85% and "Jiugui" down 30.11%, while "Xiangquan" saw a growth of 36.33% [4] - The company’s gross margin decreased to 75.59% in Q2, down 2.23 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-priced products [5][6] Profitability and Forecast - The net profit margin for Q2 was 9.52%, down 11.59 percentage points year-on-year, due to rising expense ratios [5] - The report projects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2,402 million yuan, 2,644 million yuan, and 2,981 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 312 million yuan, 359 million yuan, and 423 million yuan [6][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.96 yuan, 1.10 yuan, and 1.30 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [4][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for Q2 2024 were in line with previous performance forecasts, with total revenue of 994 million yuan, down 35.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, down 71.3% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company is adjusting its product structure in response to pressure in the mid-to-high-end market, with significant declines in revenue for certain product lines, while lower-priced products are performing better [6][7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distribution channels and improving service efficiency, which has led to a significant reduction in the revenue decline compared to the previous quarter [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 994 million yuan, down 35.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, down 71.3% year-on-year. Q2 2024 revenue was 500 million yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 48 million yuan, down 60.9% year-on-year [6][7]. - The revenue breakdown by product for H1 2024 shows significant declines for certain brands, with "Neican" and "Jiugui" down 60.85% and 30.11% respectively, while "Xiangquan" saw a 36.33% increase [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing weak demand in the business scene due to economic conditions, particularly affecting mid-to-high-end products. However, lower-priced products are seeing improved sales [6][7]. - The company has reduced the number of distributors to 1,301, optimizing the quality of its distribution network and enhancing management capabilities [6][7]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's net profit margin was pressured by fixed costs, with tax and sales expenses increasing year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q2 2024 decreased by 15.2 percentage points [6][7]. - The company is committed to reforming its cost structure, focusing on consumer engagement and enhancing promotional activities [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 2.41 billion, 2.65 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 420 million, 480 million, and 570 million yuan [7].

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