关于 2025 年第一季度报告的审核意见 云南铝业股份有限公司监事会对公司 2025 年第一季度报告进行审核后认为：董事会 编制和审议公司 2025 年第一季度报告的程序符合法律、行政法规及中国证监会的规定， 报告内容真实、准确、完整地反映了上市公司的实际情况，不存在任何虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 监事签字： | | | 云南铝业股份有限公司监事会 2025 年 4 月 23 日 1 云南铝业股份有限公司监事会 ...

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached ¥14.41 billion, representing a 26.89% increase compared to ¥11.36 billion in the same period last year[3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.26% to ¥974.38 million from ¥1.16 billion year-on-year[3]. - Total operating revenue for the current period reached ¥14,411,128,212.20, a significant increase of 27.0% compared to ¥11,357,542,978.09 in the previous period[21]. - Net profit for the current period was ¥1,114,271,822.92, down 17.1% from ¥1,344,976,821.79 in the previous period[23]. - Operating profit for the current period was ¥1,351,529,733.63, a decrease of 16.0% from ¥1,610,685,387.42 in the previous period[23]. - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.281, down from 0.336 in the previous period, reflecting a decrease of 16.3%[23]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 87.05% to ¥1.74 billion, up from ¥930.27 million in the previous year[3]. - Cash flow from operating activities was ¥14,549,744,555.74, compared to ¥10,528,160,615.84 in the previous period, indicating a rise of 38.7%[24]. - The net cash inflow from operating activities was CNY 1,740,065,883.26, an increase from CNY 930,269,481.49 in the previous period[26]. - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents was CNY 2,408,393,075.32, up from CNY 762,702,013.20[26]. - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents reached CNY 8,582,753,486.69, compared to CNY 5,882,195,186.58 previously[26]. - The company received CNY 125,860,177.53 in cash related to other operating activities, an increase from CNY 73,884,565.49[26]. - The company paid CNY 361,102,096.00 in taxes, down from CNY 570,228,643.10 in the previous period[26]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of Q1 2025 were ¥43.78 billion, a 4.48% increase from ¥41.90 billion at the end of the previous year[5]. - Total assets reached ¥43,778,330,748.43, up from ¥41,901,504,028.87, indicating a growth of 4.5%[20]. - Total liabilities increased to ¥15,220,814,140.45 from ¥14,234,059,445.05, reflecting a rise in financial obligations[18]. - The total liabilities increased to ¥10,495,089,720.03, up from ¥9,754,043,554.51, reflecting a growth of 7.6%[20]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company rose to ¥29,313,942,222.28, compared to ¥28,320,473,093.19, marking an increase of 3.5%[20]. Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 73,899[12]. - The largest shareholder, China Aluminum Corporation, holds 29.10% of shares, totaling 1,009,202,685 shares[12]. Inventory and Receivables - Accounts receivable rose by 88.90% to ¥649.81 million, primarily due to increased aluminum product sales[9]. - Accounts receivable rose to ¥649,809,970.20 from ¥343,988,785.55, indicating a significant increase in credit sales[16]. - The total inventory stands at ¥5,280,466,262.90, showing a slight decrease from ¥5,320,421,289.87[16]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses increased to ¥13,210,270.23, up from ¥7,432,102.37, representing a growth of 77.4%[21]. Government Subsidies - The company received government subsidies amounting to ¥10.67 million during the quarter, which are closely related to its normal business operations[6]. Asset Disposal - The company did not recognize any asset disposal gains in Q1 2025, compared to ¥166.70 million in the same period last year, marking a 100% decrease[11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant financial metrics, indicating a revenue of 144.11 billion with a growth rate of 26.89% [1] - The company reported a profit margin of 9.74, reflecting an increase of 16.26% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [10][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing due to tariffs, while gold prices remain strongly supported [4]. - It notes that the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates four times in 2025, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points [4]. - The report emphasizes that while copper and aluminum prices may experience fluctuations, the overall demand is improving, leading to a positive outlook for these metals [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) experienced a decline of 6.5% over the past month, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.6% [1]. Economic Data - In March, US manufacturing output increased by 0.3%, retail sales rose by 1.4%, and industrial production decreased by 0.3% [3][4]. - China's March imports decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while exports increased by 12.4% [5][27]. Gold Market - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend due to the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10]. Copper and Aluminum Market - Copper prices are expected to remain stable with short-term demand improving, despite tariff impacts yet to fully transmit to upstream materials [7]. - Aluminum prices are projected to be strong due to high operational rates in the processing sector [8]. Tin and Antimony Market - Tin prices are expected to trend higher due to supply disruptions, while antimony prices are anticipated to rise due to tight raw material availability [10][11]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [11].

Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal alloy industry has seen rapid development driven by downstream market demand, with significant growth in market size for key products such as aluminum alloys, copper alloys, and magnesium alloys from 2017 to 2024 [1][12] - The aluminum alloy market size is projected to grow from 201.12 billion yuan in 2017 to 377.05 billion yuan in 2024, while copper alloy market size is expected to increase from 16.82 billion yuan to 28.629 billion yuan, and magnesium alloy market size from 3.55 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan [1][12] Production Process - The main production processes for non-ferrous metal alloys include melting and extrusion methods, which are used to produce various alloy forms such as wires, sheets, and strips [4][5] - Sintering and extrusion methods are also employed to create composite materials from non-soluble metals and non-metallic powders [4][5] Policy Support - The government has introduced multiple policies to support the development of the non-ferrous metal alloy industry, including the "Non-ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan" released in August 2023, which emphasizes the support for high-energy cathode materials and high-purity metals [6][7] - The "Aluminum Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" aims to enhance the supply capacity of high-end aluminum alloy materials for aerospace and new energy vehicles [6][7] Industry Chain - The non-ferrous metal alloy industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (such as copper ore and aluminum ore), midstream production processes (including smelting and refining), and downstream applications in sectors like automotive, construction, and electronics [8][10] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by intense competition, with large enterprises leveraging resource reserves and technological strength, while smaller firms focus on flexible strategies and regional advantages [14][16] - Key players in the industry include China Aluminum Corporation, Jiangxi Copper Corporation, and Yunnan Aluminum Corporation, among others [14][16] Future Trends - The industry is expected to focus on green and sustainable development, emphasizing low-carbon smelting technologies and efficient recycling systems [20] - There will be an increased emphasis on the research and development of new materials, particularly high-performance and specialty alloys for strategic emerging industries [21] - The demand for non-ferrous metal alloys is projected to continue growing, driven by advancements in high-end manufacturing and infrastructure projects [23]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses a company involved in the production of lithium, aluminum, and related materials, focusing on operational performance and future expectations for 2024 and 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Financial Performance**: The company achieved a 12% growth in profit for the year despite significant price increases in Q4, indicating strong operational stability and cash flow generation capabilities [1]. 2. **Production Capacity**: The company plans to operate at full capacity in 2025, with specific production targets set for various products, including 3.01 million tons of electrolytic aluminum [4]. 3. **Product Quality and Sales Growth**: There has been a notable increase in product quality and sales, with carbon products seeing over a 20% increase in sales volume [2]. 4. **Cost Management**: The company has successfully reduced its financial burden by 2%, improving asset turnover rates and cash flow from operations [2]. 5. **Strategic Focus**: The company emphasizes a strategic theme of standardization and resource optimization to enhance operational efficiency and asset quality [3]. 6. **Electricity Costs**: There is an expectation of a slight decrease in electricity prices due to increased use of renewable energy sources, which may positively impact overall production costs [20][25]. 7. **Market Conditions**: The company anticipates a balanced industrial electricity demand, with potential increases in renewable energy generation contributing to stable operational conditions [7][8]. 8. **Resource Acquisition**: The company is actively pursuing mining rights and resource acquisition to secure its supply chain, particularly in bauxite and alumina [12][13]. 9. **Dividend Policy**: The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of around 30%, with discussions on potentially increasing this in the future [15]. 10. **Sustainability Initiatives**: The company is focused on enhancing its sustainable development capabilities, including investments in green energy and production line upgrades [16][25]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Dynamics**: The company acknowledges the impact of external factors such as tariffs and international economic uncertainties on its operations and pricing strategies [24]. - **Long-term Planning**: There is a commitment to long-term investments in resource management and production efficiency, indicating a proactive approach to market challenges [20][25]. - **Investor Relations**: The company expresses gratitude towards investors for their support and emphasizes the importance of maintaining transparent communication regarding operational performance and strategic direction [1][26]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's operational performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

Core Points - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [1][3] - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 54.5% [1][3] - The company currently has an integrated green aluminum production capacity of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.05 million tons of green aluminum, 1.6 million tons of green aluminum alloy, and 820,000 tons of carbon products [1][4] Production and Pricing - In 2024, the company's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 22.45%, with alumina production at 1.4088 million tons (down 1.37%), electrolytic aluminum production at 2.9383 million tons (up 22.45%), carbon products at 805,800 tons (up 2.85%), and aluminum alloy and processing products at 1.2541 million tons (up 1.75%) [5] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 increased by 6.53%, with quarterly averages of 19,047 yuan/ton, 20,537 yuan/ton, 19,562 yuan/ton, and 20,535 yuan/ton, resulting in an annual average price of 19,922 yuan/ton [5] - The average price of alumina in 2024 increased by 23.57%, with quarterly averages of 3,375 yuan/ton, 3,633 yuan/ton, 3,845 yuan/ton, and 4,538 yuan/ton, leading to an annual average price of 3,854 yuan/ton [5] - The company's aluminum product cost per ton was 14,817 yuan, an increase of 16.29% [5] Market Dynamics - The lack of elasticity in electrolytic aluminum supply is exacerbating the market gap, with rising aluminum prices and declining costs expected to drive profit expansion for the company in 2025 [2][6] - By the end of 2024, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity reached 43.721 million tons, projected to reach 44.36 million tons by the end of 2025, nearing capacity limits [6] - The tight supply situation for alumina has been resolved, with prices continuing to decline; as of April 11, the average price of alumina was 3,394 yuan/ton, down 31.31% from the beginning of the year [6] Sustainability and Competitive Advantage - The company is a leader in green low-carbon aluminum, with over 80% of its production electricity sourced from clean energy, resulting in carbon emissions approximately 20% of those from coal-powered aluminum [7] - The company has received product carbon footprint certification and is among the first domestic enterprises to achieve full industry chain ASI performance and certification standards [7] - The brand value and economic value of the company's green aluminum are expected to increase further under the national "dual carbon" strategy [7] Investment Outlook - Under baseline assumptions of electrolytic aluminum prices at 19,500 yuan/ton, 21,000 yuan/ton, and 21,000 yuan/ton, and alumina prices at 3,200 yuan/ton, 3,000 yuan/ton, and 2,800 yuan/ton from 2025 to 2027, the company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.56 billion yuan, 11.45 billion yuan, and 12.30 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 6.67, 4.40, and 4.10 times [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration has significantly increased global trade costs, leading to a substantial adjustment in commodity prices. However, domestic demand resilience is expected to offset external risks and support industrial metal prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that the domestic manufacturing PMI for March remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, indicating strong internal demand that may cushion the impact of external pressures [2]. - Supply constraints in copper due to protests blocking access to key mining operations have exacerbated supply tightness, while domestic copper cable manufacturers have seen an increase in operating rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes significant price declines for industrial metals, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changing by -6.37%, -11.18%, -6.37%, -5.49%, -10.73%, and -2.48% respectively [1][12]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index reported a decrease of 2.26 USD/ton, reflecting ongoing supply tightness due to protests affecting key mining routes [2][39]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Western Mining based on their performance and market conditions [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, while lithium prices have seen a decline amid stable downstream demand [3][84]. - Nickel prices are projected to continue rising due to tight supply conditions, despite some fluctuations in demand from the stainless steel sector [3][56]. Precious Metals - The report expresses optimism for precious metal prices, particularly gold, which has seen a rise due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [4][67]. - Silver prices are under pressure in the short term but are expected to rebound once economic conditions stabilize [4][67]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with EPS estimates for 2024E to 2026E showing growth for companies like Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt, with PE ratios indicating favorable valuations [5][6].

Group 1: Company Strategy and Goals - The company's 2025 work theme focuses on "Standard Leading, Reform Empowering, Strengthening Resources, and Optimizing Assets" [1][2] - "Standard Leading" aims to enhance production, equipment, and management standardization to stabilize operations [2] - "Reform Empowering" involves deepening management reforms to improve efficiency through centralized management of various business functions [2] - "Strengthening Resources" emphasizes stabilizing self-mined ore volumes and acquiring exploration rights for bauxite resources in Yunnan and surrounding areas [2] - "Optimizing Assets" focuses on improving the industrial chain and increasing capital operations to enhance structural optimization [2] Group 2: Future Performance and Innovations - The company plans to leverage its green low-carbon competitive advantage to enhance the value chain of green aluminum and increase brand influence [2] - New technologies in the aluminum industry, such as zero-carbon anodes and high-purity aluminum, are expected to drive energy savings, cost reduction, and industry upgrades [2][3] - The company aims to increase its self-sufficiency in bauxite by intensifying development efforts in Yunnan and surrounding Southeast Asian countries [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Investor Relations - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend of approximately 7.98 million, with a projected total dividend of around 14.22 million for 2024, representing 32.23% of the net profit, the highest since its listing [3] - The company emphasizes a commitment to investor interests and plans to steadily increase dividend payouts in line with its operational performance [3] - The electricity supply in Yunnan has improved, with market reforms allowing for negotiated pricing between the company and local power producers [3]