证券研究报告 2025年10月19日 有色金属 铝行业周报：去库趋势延续，价格高位震荡 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 王璇(证券分析师) S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -16% 2% 20% 38% 56% 74% 2024/10 2025/01 2025/04 2025/07 2025/10 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：需求提升带动库存去化，有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出台 （推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-09-28 《铝行业周报：美联储降息落地，国内需求继续提升（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-09-22 《铝行业周报：旺季需求继续提升，铝锭库存拐点初现（推荐）*有色金属*王 璇，陈晨》——2025-09-14 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 9.6% | 41.2% | 65.0% | | 沪深300 | -0.8% | 11.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that tariff uncertainties continue to disrupt the market, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which have reached new highs [1][2]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and optimistic macroeconomic forecasts, despite short-term volatility caused by tariffs [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [3]. - Precious metals are benefiting from strong central bank purchases and high expectations for interest rate cuts, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Tariff-induced short-term volatility is affecting copper prices, but supply disruptions are expected to support prices [2]. - Aluminum demand remains resilient, with a decrease in social inventory indicating a potential price stabilization [2][19]. - The report highlights key companies in the industrial metals sector, including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are rising due to new export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium demand remains strong due to the growth of the electric vehicle market [3]. - Key companies recommended in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to strong demand from central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Gold [3].

有色ETF基金（159880）业绩比较基准为国证有色金属行业指数收益率，管理人为鹏华基金管理有限公 司，基金经理为闫冬，成立（2021-03-08）以来回报为74.03%，近一个月回报为12.76%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 10月17日，有色ETF基金（159880）开盘涨0.63%，报1.754元。有色ETF基金（159880）重仓股方面， 紫金矿业开盘涨2.13%，洛阳钼业涨0.19%，北方稀土涨0.02%，中国铝业涨1.40%，山东黄金涨3.03%， 华友钴业涨0.26%，中金黄金涨3.28%，赣锋锂业涨0.06%，赤峰黄金涨4.08%，云铝股份涨1.59%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Aluminum and Copper Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The current copper-to-aluminum ratio is at a historical high of approximately 4.2 times, with expectations for a correction during the latter part of the interest rate cut cycle, suggesting aluminum may replicate copper's upward trend over the next three to five years [1][2][8] - The aluminum sector is currently undervalued, with an average dividend yield of 5-10% and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8 times, projected to rise from 8-9 times to 10-15 times by 2026, potentially doubling or more [1][2][15] Key Insights and Arguments - The inflation cycle typically sees gold leading, followed by silver, then copper and aluminum; thus, aluminum, which is currently at a low price point, should be a focus [1][3] - The average valuation metrics for the non-ferrous metals sector include a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2 times, a return on equity (ROE) of 20%, and a PE ratio of 8 times, indicating a combination of resilience and dividend defensiveness [1][3] - The copper-aluminum price bottom usually occurs at the end of an interest rate cut cycle, aligning with economic recovery phases [4][5] Market Dynamics - The supply of electrolytic aluminum in China has reached its capacity ceiling, while uncertainties in overseas energy consumption will gradually restore the copper-to-aluminum ratio to normal levels [1][9] - Fund holdings in the sector are significantly lower than the previous year, with only 4.7% to 4.8% allocation in Q2, indicating a relatively low market crowding and room for recovery [1][7] Future Projections - Aluminum is expected to become a resource commodity similar to copper due to its price elasticity and diverse demand, with a current profit margin of approximately 3,000 yuan per ton [2][8] - The anticipated increase in demand for alternative materials, such as aluminum wire bundles, is expected to further support aluminum's market position [10] - The global energy consumption for electrolytic aluminum production accounts for about 3% to 3.5% of total electricity usage, with potential supply uncertainties due to energy constraints [11][12] Investment Opportunities - Companies with high elasticity, such as Zhongfu, Yun Aluminum, and Tianshan, are recommended for those seeking growth, while more stable options include Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, and China Aluminum [2][15] - The aluminum sector's dividend yield is projected to remain strong, with some companies maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 60% [14] Conclusion - The aluminum sector is poised for significant growth over the next few years, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand for aluminum as a substitute material. The current market conditions present a favorable investment landscape for both growth and income-focused investors [15][18]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.10% on October 16, with coal and banking sectors leading the gains at 2.35% and 1.35% respectively [1] - The metal industry, particularly non-ferrous metals, experienced a decline of 2.06%, with a significant net outflow of funds amounting to 92.42 billion yuan [2][4] Market Overview - Among the 28 sectors, 7 sectors saw an increase, while 26 sectors experienced a net outflow of funds [1] - The banking sector had the highest net inflow of funds, totaling 9.39 billion yuan, contributing to its 1.35% increase [1] - The telecommunications sector also saw a positive net inflow of 8.95 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.74% [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector had 137 stocks, with only 15 stocks rising and 120 stocks declining [2] - The top net inflow stock in this sector was Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, with an inflow of 5.56 billion yuan, followed by Chuanjiang New Materials and Yun Aluminum, with inflows of 3.76 billion yuan and 677.82 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflow included Shenghe Resources, Zijin Mining, and Northern Rare Earth, with outflows of 9.26 billion yuan, 7.86 billion yuan, and 6.59 billion yuan respectively [2][4] Non-Ferrous Metals Fund Flow Rankings - The top gainers in the non-ferrous metals sector included Baiyin Nonferrous Metals (10.00% increase) and Chuanjiang New Materials (10.03% increase) [2] - The stocks with the highest fund outflows included Shenghe Resources (-7.43% decrease) and Zijin Mining (-1.65% decrease) [4]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2334.29 points, up 1.05%, with a trading volume of 39.892 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.5% on October 15 [1] - Among the index constituents, 31 stocks rose, with Shenhuo Co., Ltd. leading with a 5.9% increase, while 11 stocks fell, with Fuan Energy leading the decline at 3.99% [1] - The top ten constituents of the index include BOE Technology Group (9.64% weight), Wuliangye Yibin (7.95% weight), and Hikvision (7.72% weight), with total market capitalizations of 153.397 billion yuan, 473.828 billion yuan, and 305.832 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds into the index constituents totaled 0.987 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 0.882 billion yuan [1] - Detailed fund flow data shows that Chang'an Automobile had a net inflow of 0.651 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 0.386 billion yuan [2] - Other notable stocks include BOE Technology Group with a net inflow of 0.221 billion yuan from main funds and a net outflow of 0.735 billion yuan from retail investors [2]

Core Insights - Thermal CTP plates are becoming the mainstream choice in the printing industry due to their efficiency and environmental benefits, gradually replacing traditional PS plates [1][10] - The market for thermal CTP plates in China is projected to grow from 2.79 billion yuan in 2015 to 4.176 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.58% [1][11] - The demand for thermal CTP plates is driven by advancements in printing technology and increasing environmental regulations globally [1][10] Industry Overview - CTP plates are used in computer direct plate-making technology, with thermal CTP plates being the most mature and stable type available [2] - The thermal CTP plate industry is characterized by a robust supply chain, including raw materials like aluminum and photosensitive materials, manufacturing processes, and diverse application fields [7][8] Market Dynamics - The production volume of thermal CTP plates in China is expected to increase from 25.95 million square meters in 2016 to 30.87 million square meters in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.19% [10] - The demand for thermal CTP plates is anticipated to rise from 18.86 million square meters in 2016 to 23.45 million square meters in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.76% [10] Application Segments - The primary application areas for thermal CTP plates include commercial printing (43.52%), packaging printing (24.38%), and book printing (15.04%), collectively accounting for over 80% of the market [8] Competitive Landscape - The thermal CTP plate market in China features a diverse competitive landscape with both international players like Kodak and Fujifilm, and domestic companies such as Aisike, Huitong, and Chengde Tiancai [11] - Aisike Technology Co., Ltd. is a notable player, focusing on industrial printing products and achieving significant sales in high-end CTP machines [11][12] Future Trends - The industry is expected to move towards higher efficiency, with a focus on automation and integration in the production process [14] - Environmental sustainability will drive the development of thermal CTP plates, emphasizing the use of green materials and clean processes [14] - Digital integration will enhance the workflow in printing, making thermal CTP plates a key component in smart manufacturing [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of the Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880), which opened with a gain of 2.40% and reports significant increases in its major holdings, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) opened at 1.875 yuan, reflecting a 2.40% increase [1] - Since its establishment on March 8, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 82.49% [1] - The fund's one-month return stands at 16.15% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the fund include: - Zijin Mining: up 3.51% [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum: up 3.25% [1] - Northern Rare Earth: up 0.47% [1] - China Aluminum: up 2.92% [1] - Shandong Gold: up 3.90% [1] - Huayou Cobalt: up 3.29% [1] - Zhongjin Gold: up 5.06% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium: unchanged [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold: up 4.36% [1] - Yun Aluminum: up 2.55% [1] Group 3: Fund Management - The fund is managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The fund manager is Yan Dong [1] - The performance benchmark for the fund is the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index return [1]

中邮证券近日发布有色金属行业报告：关税风云再起，继续加配黄金。贵金属本周继续 强势，中美关税风雨再起，可继续提升对于黄金的配置比例。白银现货出现溢价，体现逼仓 上行的动能不足，贸易争端下注意回调风险。长期来看，去美元化的进程不会转向，叠加短 期降息交易下ETF配置资金的流入，我们依然看好贵金属板块的表现，建议继续超配贵金 属。 以下为研究报告摘要： l投资要点 贵金属：关税风云再起，继续加配黄金。贵金属本周继续强势，中美关税风雨再起，可 继续提升对于黄金的配置比例。白银现货出现溢价，体现逼仓上行的动能不足，贸易争端下 注意回调风险。长期来看，去美元化的进程不会转向，叠加短期降息交易下ETF配置资金的 流入，我们依然看好贵金属板块的表现，建议继续超配贵金属。 铜：供给扰动有望提升价格中枢，关税或给出买点。在自由港下调铜产量指引后，泰克 资源同样下调26年的产量指引，2026年全球电解铜平衡表的逆转的确定性再度增强。周五由 于关税预期导致铜价大幅回调，但结合供需紧张的预期来看，回调预计给出较好的买点。 铝：铝价同样等待回调后的买点。本周LME铝上涨，和铜类似，铝在关税影响下同样存 在压力。库存情况来看，SMM监测 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., which may elevate demand for safe-haven assets like gold and strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten [5][9]. - The copper market is experiencing supply disruptions, with prices trending upward due to tight supply conditions [5]. - Aluminum demand is expected to continue, with potential opportunities for investment following market corrections [5]. - The strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten is emphasized due to recent export controls and geopolitical developments [5][9]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with LME copper prices at $10,735 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.9% [5]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is negative, indicating tight supply [5]. - Companies with rich copper reserves are recommended for investment [9]. Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum prices reached $2,800 per ton, up 3.6% week-on-week [5]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain stable [5]. - Investment opportunities are suggested for companies in the aluminum sector following market corrections [9]. Gold Sector - Gold prices are rising, with SHFE gold at 901.6 RMB per gram, up 3.1% week-on-week [5]. - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions may enhance gold's strategic position as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Investment in gold-related companies is recommended due to their undervalued resource potential [9]. Rare Metals Sector - Rare earth prices remain stable, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 683,000 RMB per ton [5]. - Recent export controls on rare earths have heightened their strategic importance amid U.S.-China tensions [5][9]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies involved in rare earth production [9]. Steel Sector - Steel prices are stable, with SHFE rebar at 3,103 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [6]. - The report notes frequent disruptions in iron ore supply negotiations, which may impact future prices [6]. - Companies with high self-sufficiency in iron ore are recommended for investment [9].