Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the industry index rising by 1.86% and individual stocks like Tungsten High-tech and Yahua Group seeing significant gains of 10.02% and 9.99% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and phasing out outdated production capacity [1] - The copper and aluminum sectors are highlighted for their high-quality development plans, with an emphasis on addressing the overcapacity issues in copper smelting and alumina production [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) includes 50 prominent securities, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 50.02% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum among the leaders [2]

签署日期：二〇二五年七月 信息披露义务人声明 一、信息披露义务人依据《中华人民共和国证券法》 （以下简称"《证券法》"）、 《上市公司收购管理办法》（以下简称"《收购办法》"）、《公开发行证券的 公司信息披露内容与格式准则第 15 号——权益变动报告书》（以下简称"《准 则 15 号》"）及其他相关法律、法规和部门规章的有关规定编写本报告书。 二、信息披露义务人签署本报告已获得必要的授权和批准，其履行亦不违反 信息披露义务人章程或内部规则中的任何条款，或与之相冲突。 上市公司：云南铜业股份有限公司 上市地点：深圳证券交易所 股票简称：云南铜业 股票代码：000878.SZ 信息披露义务人一：云南铜业（集团）有限公司 住所：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 通讯地址：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 信息披露义务人二：中国铝业集团有限公司 住所：北京市海淀区西直门北大街 62 号 18、22、28 层 通讯地址：北京市海淀区西直门北大街 62 号 信息披露义务人三：中国铜业有限公司 住所：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 通讯地址：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 股份权益变动性质：因信息披露义务人认购上市公司 ...

| 日期 | 当日涨跌幅（%） | 换手率（%） | 主力资金净流入（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.07.18 | 4.98 | 0.61 | -303.05 | | 2025.07.17 | 4.99 | 0.08 | -9.21 | | 2025.07.16 | 4.99 | 0.37 | 2363.14 | | 2025.07.15 | -2.43 | 1.66 | -4769.28 | | 2025.07.14 | 5.12 | 1.32 | -4323.51 | | 2025.07.11 | 5.11 | 0.08 | 611.39 | | 2025.07.10 | 5.08 | 0.08 | 566.05 | | 2025.07.09 | 5.04 | 0.50 | 779.01 | | 2025.07.08 | 4.98 | 1.48 | 284.00 | | 2025.04.30 | 1.26 | 7.14 | -3351.96 | 7月5日公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业总收入21.63亿元，同比增长1.33%，实现净 利润5.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations during the off-season, and a growth stabilization plan is expected to be announced soon [6][11]. - Despite the off-season demand, the low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices [11]. - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 18, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2638.0 per ton, up $36.0 from the previous week, representing a 1.4% week-on-week increase and a 9.7% year-on-year increase [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20510.0 CNY per ton, down 185.0 CNY from the previous week, a 0.9% decrease week-on-week, but up 3.9% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20760.0 CNY per ton, unchanged from the previous week, but up 5.4% year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.9 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 2.8 million tons year-on-year [53]. - The alumina production in June 2025 was 725.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 26.9 million tons year-on-year [53]. 3. Inventory - As of July 17, the domestic mainstream consumption area had an electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory of 49.20 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons week-on-week [7]. - The aluminum rod inventory was 15.60 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons week-on-week, mainly due to reduced production and downstream replenishment [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.71 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.12 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.62 CNY for 2025E [5]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.91 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2025E [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that the gold market will continue to rise due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but the long-term supply-demand balance is expected to tighten [15]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate due to a tight supply situation, while antimony prices are projected to remain weak in the short term but supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 3.75%, outperforming other sectors [23]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+18.65%), magnetic materials (+11.28%), and silver (+8.35%) [23]. 2. Precious Metals - London gold price was $3352.10 per ounce, up $20.20 from July 4, with a 0.61% increase [34]. - London silver price reached $37.5 per ounce, increasing by 0.62% from July 4 [34]. - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's differing views on inflation may impact precious metals, but a bullish trend is anticipated [6][34]. 3. Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9640 per ton, down $240 from July 4, a decrease of 2.43% [41]. - Domestic aluminum price was 20760 RMB per ton, with a slight increase of 0.05% [42]. - The report highlights that short-term copper and aluminum prices may face downward pressure due to weak demand [15][41]. 4. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 266820 RMB per ton, down 0.37% from July 4 [43]. - Antimony price was 185500 RMB per ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.80% [15][43]. - The report suggests that while demand is weak, supply constraints may support tin prices in the future [15]. 5. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold, and in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [15][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable domestically, with China's economic growth projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the total economic output expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [6] - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, leading to a potential accumulation of inventory in July, although low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply may provide some support for aluminum prices [11] - The report highlights the impact of overseas tariff disturbances, particularly from the U.S., which may affect the aluminum market dynamics [6] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 11, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,602.0 per ton, up $4.5 from the previous week, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week and a 124.0 increase year-on-year [15] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,695.0 yuan per ton, up 60.0 yuan from the previous week, marking a 0.3% increase week-on-week and a 595.0 increase year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 28,000 tons year-on-year [48] - The production of alumina in June 2025 was 7.258 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month-on-month, but an increase of 269,000 tons year-on-year [48] 3. Inventory - As of July 10, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a shift from accumulation to destocking [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 [5] 5. Demand - The downstream sectors are experiencing a pronounced off-season atmosphere, with aluminum processing rates remaining low, and the demand for aluminum rods is under pressure due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the unexpected increase in US copper tariffs, which may impact supply and demand dynamics in the market [3] - The overall performance of the metals sector has been strong, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [4][7] - The report suggests that the long-term trend for gold prices is upward due to central bank purchases and a shift in monetary credit dynamics [3][21] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.78% [4] - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.20 percentage points [4][6] - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 20.42%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 [7] Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper prices down by 2.07% and aluminum prices up by 0.50% [13] - Lithium prices have shown an upward trend, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.01% [17] - Gold prices increased by 1.03%, while silver prices rose by 5.49% [14] Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, indicating a positive sentiment towards gold [21] - The Chinese central bank has resumed gold purchases, which may bolster market confidence [21] Industrial Metals - Copper supply is tightening due to unexpected production cuts, while demand remains stable [3][33] - The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to trend upward due to supply constraints and policy support [3][49] Steel Industry - The report observes a decrease in steel production and a stable demand environment, with slight price increases for rebar and hot-rolled coils [71] - The overall steel inventory remains stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [71] Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced its 2025 semi-annual performance forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.7-2.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.19%-11.16% [1] Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.75 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a non-recurring net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in Q2 2025 net profit to 1.776 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 31.07% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 82.34% [1] - Q2 2025 is projected to be the highest single-quarter net profit in the company's history, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - The main reasons for the performance exceeding expectations include: 1) capitalizing on the rising aluminum prices with full production of electrolytic aluminum; 2) benefiting from the decline in raw material prices, with the average price of alumina in Q2 2025 being 3,076.67 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 16.07% [1] Group 2: Industry Development - The "Aluminum Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" was released, with the company positioned to benefit as a leader in green electricity aluminum [1] - The plan aims for significant improvements in supply chain resilience and safety by 2027, with a target of increasing domestic bauxite resources by 3%-5% and achieving over 15 million tons of recycled aluminum production [1] - The company, as a long-standing player in electrolytic aluminum, has a green aluminum capacity of 3.05 million tons as of the end of 2024, aligning with industry trends for high-quality development [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, with EPS projected at 1.73, 1.84, and 2.01 yuan, and PE ratios at 9, 9, and 8 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.0-28.0 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.19%-11.16% [7] - The significant improvement in raw material costs, particularly alumina, has positively impacted the company's profitability in Q2 2025, with a projected net profit of 17.3-18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.33%-34.71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77.10%-87.36% [7] - The successful commissioning of the Heqing Yixin Aluminum Phase III project is expected to enhance production capacity and sales volume [7] - The supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market indicate a favorable long-term outlook, with limited supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 57,615 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6,323 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant increase of 43.3% compared to the previous year [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 16.4% in 2025, up from 10.0% in Q1 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to be 18.5% in 2025, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's low [6]