Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent Congo export policy for cobalt is expected to drive prices upward, with a significant reduction in export quotas leading to increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [6] - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals following the recent FOMC meeting, despite some market adjustments, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [4] - Copper prices are anticipated to break through key resistance levels, supported by seasonal demand increases in China [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases due to rising downstream consumption as the National Day holiday approaches [5] - Lithium demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by a major contract signed by CATL for lithium iron phosphate materials, indicating a strong outlook for lithium prices [7] - Uranium prices are expected to rise due to potential export restrictions from Russia, which could significantly impact global supply [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6522.39, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3912.76 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw declines: copper down 1.19%, aluminum down 1.33%, zinc down 2.88%, lead down 0.17%, and tin down 1.53%. Precious metals had mixed results with gold down 0.22% and silver up 1.13% [21] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories increased for copper by 7945 tons, aluminum by 8010 tons, and zinc by 2724 tons, while lead saw a decrease of 4085 tons [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) has shown strong performance, with significant gains in individual stocks such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, driven by a surge in spot gold prices and supportive monetary policies [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal industry index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, comprising 50 securities with notable scale and liquidity [1] - The recent increase in gold prices is attributed to central bank reserves and resilient employment in the U.S. economy, which may extend the current interest rate cut cycle, creating a favorable environment for gold investments [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 50.35% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index, providing investors with a means to invest in this specific sector [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) and its major holdings, highlighting the fund's recent gains and overall returns since its inception [1]. Fund Performance - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) opened with a gain of 0.79%, priced at 1.522 yuan [1]. - Since its establishment on March 8, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 50.99% [1]. - Over the past month, the fund's return has been 12.17% [1]. Major Holdings - Key stocks in the Nonferrous ETF Fund include: - Zijin Mining: up 1.92% - Luoyang Molybdenum: up 3.76% - Northern Rare Earth: down 0.53% - China Aluminum: up 0.52% - Shandong Gold: up 3.84% - Huayou Cobalt: up 4.69% - Zhongjin Gold: up 3.50% - Ganfeng Lithium: up 0.34% - Chifeng Jilong Gold: up 2.90% - Yun Aluminum: unchanged [1]. Management Information - The fund is managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with Yan Dong as the fund manager [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut, and the non-ferrous and steel sectors are set to rebound [9][15]. - Despite a recent decline in aluminum prices, the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector remains stable due to a simultaneous decrease in raw material costs [9][15]. - Gold prices are expected to rise in the medium term due to multiple factors, enhancing corporate profitability and dividend intentions [9][15]. - The steel sector is poised for mid-term profitability improvements, with potential increases in dividends as the Simandou iron ore project progresses [9][15]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous and Steel Industry Overview - The non-ferrous and steel sectors experienced a notable decline prior to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, driven by speculative trading [9][15]. - The market is expected to shift towards low-risk, high-dividend segments within the non-ferrous and steel sectors [9][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Although aluminum prices have decreased, the profitability of the sector remains stable due to lower raw material costs [9][15]. - Future price increases are anticipated as supply-demand dynamics tighten, potentially leading to higher dividend payouts from companies like Tianshan Aluminum [9][15]. Gold Sector - The recent interest rate cut is expected to lead to a short-term stabilization or correction in gold prices, but medium-term prospects remain positive [9][15]. - Increased profitability in gold mining companies is likely to result in higher dividend distributions [9][15]. Steel Sector - The Simandou iron ore project is entering a decisive phase, which could enhance mid-term profitability and dividend capabilities for steel companies [9][15]. - The steel price is expected to stabilize and potentially increase, supported by cost structures and seasonal demand shifts [9][15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a seasonal increase in rebar consumption, with a week-on-week rise of 6.04% [17][22]. - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, indicating structural improvements in demand [22][24]. Price Trends - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.50%, with specific products like steel billets showing a 1.18% rise [37][38]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price movements in raw materials, which are crucial for profitability in the steel sector [29][34].

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and favorable pricing dynamics in the aluminum market [4][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 29.078 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.98% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.768 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.88% - The company proposed a cash dividend of 3.20 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for approximately 40.10% of the net profit for the first half of 2025, resulting in a current dividend yield of 3.78% based on market capitalization as of September 19, 2025 [4]. Production and Pricing Dynamics - The growth in the company's performance is primarily attributed to an increase in both the volume and price of its products, with aluminum production reaching 1.6132 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.59% - The average price of aluminum (A00) in the first half of 2025 was 20,317.4 yuan per ton, up by 2.6% year-on-year - The decline in alumina prices, which fell to 3,170 yuan per ton (down 44.7% from the beginning of the year), has also positively impacted the company's profitability [5]. Industry Demand and Trends - The demand for aluminum is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a total domestic aluminum consumption of 54.3549 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.46% - Excluding export products, domestic aluminum consumption is anticipated to grow by 3.06% year-on-year, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles, power transmission lines, and air conditioning [6]. Resource Expansion and Project Development - The company is actively expanding its resource base, successfully acquiring exploration rights for the Zhaotong aluminum ore and advancing exploration and mining rights in other regions - New projects, such as the 50,000-ton aluminum resource comprehensive utilization project and the 30,000-ton aluminum alloy casting production line, have been successfully launched [7]. Carbon Market Integration - The aluminum smelting industry is on the verge of being integrated into the national carbon market, as indicated by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's recent solicitation for public opinion on greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting guidelines - The carbon emissions from aluminum production using thermal power are significantly higher than those using hydropower, which may lead to increased costs for thermal power-based aluminum production and encourage energy-saving measures within the industry [9].

Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 29.078 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.98% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.768 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.88% [1] - The company proposed a cash dividend distribution plan, paying 3.20 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for approximately 40.10% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The growth in the company's performance is supported by an increase in both volume and price of products, with aluminum product output reaching 1.6132 million tons, up 15.59% year-on-year [1] - The average price of aluminum (A00) in the first half of 2025 was 20,317.4 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [1] - The domestic alumina price decreased to 3,170 yuan per ton, down 44.7% from the beginning of the year, which positively impacted the company's performance [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The domestic aluminum consumption is projected to reach 54.3549 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46%, and a 3.06% increase when excluding export products [2] - Key growth areas for aluminum consumption include new energy vehicles, power transmission lines, and air conditioning, while sectors like aluminum material net exports and construction are expected to be drag factors [2] - The integration of the electrolytic aluminum industry into the national carbon market is progressing, which may lead to increased costs for fire-powered aluminum production and promote energy-saving measures [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the rise in aluminum prices, the profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 at 6.19 billion yuan and 6.92 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.9% and 13.4% from previous estimates [3] - A new profit forecast for 2027 is set at 7.59 billion yuan, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times for the respective years [3] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, considering the potential premium for green hydropower aluminum following its inclusion in the carbon trading market [3]

2025 年 9 月 21 日 公司研究 量价齐升助力业绩同比增长，中期分红比例达到 40% ——云铝股份（000807.SZ）动态跟踪报告 要点 2025 半年报业绩同比增长：根据云铝股份 2025 半年报，公司实现营业收入 290.78 亿元，同比增长 17.98%；归母净利润 27.68 亿元，同比增长 9.88%。公 司制定 2025 年中期利润分配预案：向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利人民币 3.20 元（含税），派发现金红利占公司 2025 年半年度合并报表归属于上市公司股东 的净利润的比例约为 40.10%。若按照 40%分红比例、2025 年 WIND 一致预期 归母净利润以及 9 月 19 日市值计算，当前股息率为 3.78%。 氧化铝价格下行叠加公司产品量价齐升支撑公司业绩增长。公司半年报业绩增长 主要系公司产品量价齐升，公司2025上半年铝产品产量161.32万吨，同比增长 15.59%。2025H1铝（A00）均价20317.4元/吨，同比增长2.6%。同时原料端氧 化铝价格下滑，也增厚公司业绩，截至2025年6月30日，国内氧化铝价格3170 元/吨，较年初下滑44.7%。 行业需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The modern energy sector in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by policy support and technological advancements, with a focus on energy storage and renewable energy solutions [4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy Index decreased by 0.03%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3]. - China Coal Energy led the gains with an increase of 3.90%, while China Rare Earths saw a decline of 1.82% [3]. - The Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF (561790) rose by 0.18%, closing at 1.15 yuan, and has accumulated a 1.06% increase over the past two weeks [3]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The 2025 World Energy Storage Conference opened in Ningde, Fujian, showcasing significant advancements in the energy storage sector, including the release of the "China Long-term Energy Storage Industry Blue Book" and the signing of 18 project cooperation agreements with a total planned investment of 24.58 billion yuan [3]. - The industry is witnessing a robust development of a comprehensive new energy storage system, with expectations of doubling large-scale storage capacity in the next two and a half years due to favorable policies [4]. Group 3: ETF and Index Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 2.11 million yuan over the past year, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - The index tracks 50 listed companies involved in modern energy sectors, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 48.28% of the index [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in China's energy sector, particularly in new energy storage, indicate a significant growth phase driven by policy support, market demand, and technological advancements [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 17, 2025, the China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy Index rose by 0.28%, with notable increases in stocks such as China Coal Energy (up 4.10%) and China Western Power (up 2.03%) [3]. - The Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF (561790) increased by 0.52%, with a latest price of 1.17 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 2.93% over the past month [3]. Group 2: Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)", aiming for market-oriented development and technological innovation in the energy storage sector by 2027 [3][4]. - Additional policies released in September include notifications to improve pricing mechanisms for renewable energy and guidelines for the continuous operation of electricity spot markets, emphasizing the importance of energy storage [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Experts suggest that the confluence of policy incentives, surging market demand, rapid technological iterations, and strategic capacity layouts are propelling the energy storage industry into a "golden development period" characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price [4]. - The index tracking the Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF includes 50 listed companies involved in green energy and fossil energy, with the top ten stocks accounting for 48.28% of the index [4].

Core Viewpoint - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock price appreciation and strong financial performance in 2023, indicating a positive outlook for the company and its industry [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 17, Yun Aluminum's stock price increased by 57.30% year-to-date, with a 13.02% rise in the last five trading days, 21.04% in the last 20 days, and 36.81% over the last 60 days [2]. - The stock was trading at 21.00 CNY per share with a market capitalization of 728.27 billion CNY [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yun Aluminum reported revenue of 29.078 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.768 billion CNY, up 9.88% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 4.959 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.774 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 16.95% to 86,400, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 14.50% to 40,124 shares [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 197 million shares, and various ETFs that have adjusted their holdings [3].