Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry, suggesting to focus on the bottom repair opportunities in steel stocks [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand during the off-season, but improved market sentiment has led to an increase in steel prices [2][3]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry has improved in the first half of the year due to a significant decline in raw material prices, which has positively impacted steel production costs [3][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Central Financial Committee is expected to enhance market conditions for the steel industry, leading to both valuation and performance recovery in the long term [4][10]. Industry Data Summary Production Data - As of July 11, the production of five major steel products totaled 8.7272 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 124,000 tons [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3981 million tons, down 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products was 8.7307 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 121,900 tons [1][2]. - The consumption changes for specific products included a decrease of 33,700 tons for rebar, 29,100 tons for wire rod, and 18,600 tons for hot-rolled products [1]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory was reported at 13.3958 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 3,500 tons [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 9.1401 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [1]. Profitability Data - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills was stable at 2,256 yuan per ton [1]. - As of July 11, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar was 196 yuan, hot-rolled sheets 142 yuan, and cold-rolled sheets 31 yuan, with week-on-week increases of 9 yuan, 16 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively [1][3].

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.2 million to 67.2 million yuan for the period from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.62% to 70.22% compared to 39.478 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.0828 yuan and 0.0867 yuan, compared to 0.0509 yuan in the previous year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The company has focused on innovation-driven strategies, optimizing product and customer structures, and enhancing its "manufacturing + service" competitive advantage, leading to a year-on-year increase in the production and sales of strategic products [1] - The company has effectively reduced production costs by benchmarking against leading enterprises and exploring cost-reduction potential, which has helped mitigate the impact of external market profit reduction factors, resulting in improved operating performance in the first half of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - iFlytek expects a significant reduction in losses for the first half of 2025, with projected revenue growth of 15%-20% and net profit growth of 30%-50% compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The company anticipates a gross profit increase of over 600 million yuan, with total sales receipts around 10.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.3 billion yuan [1][2] - iFlytek's strategic focus on artificial intelligence and continuous investment in R&D, which constitutes about 20% of revenue, has led to healthy growth in its core business, particularly in the consumer sector [2][3] Group 2 - Seres expects a net profit increase of 66.20% to 96.98% for the first half of 2025, with projected net profit between 2.7 billion to 3.2 billion yuan [4] - The company's performance is attributed to its commitment to a software-defined vehicle strategy and the successful launch of new products in the second quarter of 2025 [4] Group 3 - WuXi AppTec anticipates a 44.43% increase in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, with expected revenue of approximately 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of about 20.64% [5][6] - The growth is driven by the company's focus on its integrated CRDMO business model and the successful sale of part of its stock in WuXi XDC Cayman Inc., contributing an estimated gain of 3.21 billion yuan [6] Group 4 - China Shipbuilding expects a net profit increase of 98.25% to 119.49% for the first half of 2025, with projected net profit between 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan [10] - The company has benefited from improved order structures and effective cost control, leading to significant revenue growth [10] Group 5 - Huadian Power anticipates a net profit increase of 62.62% to 70.22% for the first half of 2025, with projected net profit between 642 million to 672 million yuan [20] - The growth is attributed to effective cost reduction strategies and stable production processes [20] Group 6 - Lotus Holdings expects a net profit increase of 58.67% to 68.59% for the first half of 2025, with projected net profit between 160 million to 170 million yuan [21] - The company's new product development and sales have shown significant results, particularly in the new retail sector [21] Group 7 - Dongyangguang anticipates a net profit increase of 157.48% to 192.81% for the first half of 2025, with projected net profit between 583 million to 663 million yuan [28] - The company is accelerating its strategic layout in the intelligent computing and humanoid robot sectors, which has begun to yield revenue [28] Group 8 - Walden Materials expects a net profit of 545 million to 587 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30% to 40% [29] - The growth is driven by increased market demand across various product lines, including electronic materials and new energy vehicles [29] Group 9 - Sanmei Holdings anticipates a net profit increase of 146.97% to 171.67% for the first half of 2025, with projected net profit between 948 million to 1.042 billion yuan [30] - The company benefits from a favorable competitive landscape and rising demand for its fluorinated refrigerants [30]

| 债券名 称 | 北京首钢股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行绿色科 技创新公司债券（第一期）（品种二） | | --- | --- | | 债券简称 | 25 首迁 GK02 | | 债券代码 | 524339.SZ | | 信用评级 | 主体评级 AAA，债项评级 AAA | | 评级机构 | 东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司 | | 发行总额 | 5 亿元 | | 债券期限 | 5 年 | | 票面年利率 | 1.92% | | 利率形式 | 固定利率 | | 付息频率 | 每年一次 | | 发行日 | 2025 年 7 月 1 日和 2025 年 7 月 2 日 | | 起息日 | 2025 年 7 月 2 日 | | 上市日 | 8 日 2025 年 7 月 | | 到期 日 | 2030 年 7 月 2 日 | | 债券面 值 | 100 元/张 | | 开盘参考价 | 100 元/张 | （以下无正文） (本页无正文，为《北京首钢股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行绿 色科技创新公司债券（第一期）(品种二）在深圳证券交易所上市的公告》之盖 章页） 限公司 日 北京首钢股份有 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the steel industry's two main contradictions: weak demand and strong costs, with the industry entering its fourth year of a downward cycle in 2025. The effective demand has significantly decreased, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to a 42.9% drop in demand for steel used in real estate from 377 million tons in 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024 [6][18][25]. - The report anticipates a marginal rebound in the steel sector due to weakening costs and resilient demand, driven by a decline in coking coal prices and an expected increase in iron ore supply [6][37][45]. Demand and Cost Analysis - Weak demand is characterized by insufficient effective demand, making it easier to maintain volume than prices. The real estate sector's demand for steel has plummeted, contributing to a significant overall decline in steel prices [6][18][25]. - Strong costs are attributed to tight supply of raw materials like iron ore and coking coal, which have severely squeezed steel profits. The profit share of steel in the industrial chain has dropped to 16%, significantly below the historical average of 28% [6][31][34]. Supply-Side Strategies - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing excess capacity in the steel industry, which is expected to stabilize steel prices and improve profitability for steel companies. A potential reduction of 30 million tons in crude steel production in 2025 could lead to a price increase of 229 yuan per ton for rebar [6][8][37]. - Long-term capacity reduction is expected to be gradual, with approximately 20% of capacity facing compliance challenges, particularly among small private enterprises, which may face pressure to exit the market starting in 2026 [6][8][37]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in high-end steel products, such as Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, which are expected to maintain profitability and enhance shareholder returns through capital expenditure and asset optimization [6][8][37]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in valuation and performance for companies with low price-to-book ratios, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel, as well as opportunities in state-owned enterprise reforms and mergers and acquisitions [6][8][37].

Group 1 - China Baowu Steel Group is the largest steel enterprise globally, with an annual steel production of 130 million tons [1] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group is the second-largest steel enterprise in China, producing over 80 million tons of steel annually [3] - Anshan Iron and Steel Group, known as the cradle of China's steel industry, is the third-largest steel producer in China, with an annual output of 75 million tons [6] - Shagang Group is the largest private steel enterprise in China, producing 50 million tons of steel annually, making it the fourth-largest steel producer in the country [8] - Shougang Group is a major player in the steel industry, with an annual production of 35 million tons, ranking as the fifth-largest steel group in China [9]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a rally despite overall market fluctuations, driven by environmental regulations and improving demand conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The steel ETF (515210) rose by 1.67%, leading the market with a trading volume of nearly 104 million yuan [1]. - Key holdings such as Lingang Co. and Liugang Co. have seen consecutive trading limits, while other stocks like Shougang Co. and Hesteel Co. increased by nearly 5% [1]. - Since September 2, 2024, the steel ETF has gained 31.33%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tangshan has intensified its environmental production restrictions, with rumors of measures from July 4 to July 15 [3]. - The China Iron and Steel Association is set to hold a meeting, although the agenda remains undisclosed [3]. - Steel inventory among key enterprises increased by 420,000 tons to 16.21 million tons in mid-June, but decreased by 140,000 tons compared to the same period last month [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The operating rate of H-beam steel producers rose by 3.23 percentage points to 70.97%, with capacity utilization increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 56.83% [4]. - Demand is expected to improve marginally due to supportive real estate policies and stable infrastructure investment, while supply constraints are becoming more pronounced [4]. - The profit margin for the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 31.69 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [4]. - The comprehensive gross profit for the steel industry was 281 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.45% [4].

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a strong rally on July 4, with notable stock performances including Lingang Co. hitting the daily limit, Liugang Co. achieving four consecutive limit-ups, and Angang Steel rising over 6% [1] - Liugang Co. has not identified any media reports or market rumors that could impact its stock price, and its fundamentals remain unchanged, with major shareholders holding 83.01% of the company [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity and improve product quality, which may positively influence the steel sector's profitability [2] Group 2 - There are reports of increased environmental restrictions and production cuts in Tangshan, with approximately half of the steel mills indicating they have received notifications regarding these measures [1] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book ratio (PB) of steel stocks may also improve as a result [2]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Shougang Co., Ltd. has been approved to issue green technology innovation corporate bonds with a total face value of up to RMB 10 billion, with a specific issuance of RMB 5 billion for the first phase [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The total issuance of corporate bonds is capped at RMB 10 billion, with a maximum of RMB 8 billion for long-term bonds and RMB 2 billion for short-term bonds [1]. - The first phase of the bond issuance is set at RMB 5 billion, divided into two varieties: one with a maturity of 3 years and the other with a maturity of 5 years [1]. - The bonds will be issued at a price of RMB 100 each, utilizing a method of offline inquiry and allocation to professional institutional investors [1][2]. Group 2: Subscription and Demand - The issuance period for the bonds is from July 1, 2025, to July 2, 2025, with the final issuance scale for the second variety being RMB 5 billion and a coupon rate of 1.92% [2]. - The subscription rate for the bonds was 3.14 times, indicating strong demand from investors [2]. - Major underwriters, including Everbright Securities and Guotai Junan Securities, participated in the subscription, with total subscriptions from underwriters amounting to RMB 3.2 billion [2].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a significant price increase due to production cuts driven by environmental regulations and government policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity. This has led to a reduction in steel output expectations, particularly in Tangshan, where a 30% production cut has been mandated from July 4 to July 15. The market anticipates further impacts on steel production as a result of these measures [1][3]. Group 1: Steel Industry Insights - The recent meeting of the Financial and Economic Committee emphasized the need to push for the elimination of outdated production capacity, directly influencing the steel market [1]. - Tangshan steel mills have received directives for a 30% production cut, which is expected to significantly lower steel inventories and production levels [1]. - The China Iron and Steel Association reported that steel billet exports in the first four months of 2025 have already surpassed the total for 2024, prompting suggestions for export restrictions [1]. - A total of approximately 30 million tons of production cuts have been ordered for the year, coinciding with a seasonal demand lull, which has heightened market expectations for reduced steel output [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Longjiang Securities noted that administrative production cuts could act as a bullish option for the steel sector, particularly in July, which is traditionally a slow season for demand [3]. - The announcement of production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector has also led to significant price increases in that market, indicating a broader trend of supply-side reforms impacting various sectors [3]. - The steel sector saw a strong rally in stock prices, with companies like Liugang and Chongqing Steel hitting their daily price limits amid these developments [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The overall A-share market experienced a decline, with major indices falling and a significant number of stocks trading lower, reflecting broader economic pressures [9]. - The government is expected to focus on structural adjustments across multiple industries, including steel, refining, and new energy sectors, as part of its economic strategy [7]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Institutional investors have begun to sell off some positions in response to the recent price increases in steel, indicating a cautious approach to the current market dynamics [1][4]. - The market's reaction to production cuts in both the steel and photovoltaic sectors suggests a growing trend towards supply-side management as a means to stabilize prices and manage excess capacity [3].