证券研究报告 | 2025年08月21日 投资建议：持续优化渠道产品结构，高分红价值持续，维持"优于大市" 公司持续完善多渠道布局、优化产品结构，通过多品类板材及辅料产品，提 升客单值和盈利能力，继续看好渠道下沉及小 B 渠道持续拉动，市占率提升 空间依旧巨大。考虑现阶段整体需求持续偏弱，下调盈利预测，预计 25-27 年 EPS 为 0.87/1.01/1.15 元/股（前值 0.96/1.04/1.14 元/股），对应 PE 为 11.9/10.3/9.1x，公司持续重视股东回报，积极实施中期分红，分红率达 86.7%，高分红价值持续，维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 9,063 | 9,189 | 8,867 | 9,503 | 10,092 | | (+/-%) | 1.6% | 1.4% | -3.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | | 净利润(百万元) | 689 | 585 | 728 | 841 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth and high interim dividends, showcasing its value [7]. - The company is a leading player in the decorative materials sector, focusing on furniture panels and has effectively diversified its product offerings [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 9,063 million in 2023, with a slight growth to CNY 9,189 million in 2024, and further growth to CNY 11,057 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% from 2024 to 2027 [1][8]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to reach CNY 689 million in 2023, with a forecasted increase to CNY 985 million by 2027, indicating a growth rate of 10.7% in 2027 compared to 2026 [1][8]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is projected to remain strong, with values of 21.2% in 2023 and stabilizing around 20.9% by 2027 [1][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is expected to grow from CNY 0.83 in 2023 to CNY 1.19 in 2027 [1][8]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 12.7 in 2023 to 8.9 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over time [1][8]. Business Segment Performance - **Custom Home Revenue**: The custom home segment showed a revenue increase of 4.46% year-on-year, while the decorative materials segment experienced a decline of 9.05% [1][2]. - **Gross Margin Improvement**: The gross margin for decorative materials improved to 17.59%, driven by effective cost control and a focus on high-margin products [1][2]. - **Sales Growth in Channels**: The company reported a 46.5% increase in sales through home decoration company channels, indicating successful channel expansion efforts [1][2]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 2.8 per share, totaling CNY 2.29 billion, which represents 85% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company shows steady profit growth and margin improvement, with a reported revenue of 3.634 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.7% to 268 million yuan [5] - The company is optimizing its product and channel structure in response to pressures in the decorative materials segment, with a revenue of 2.985 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 9.05% year-on-year [5] - The custom home business is growing steadily, with revenue of 621 million yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 4.46% year-on-year [5] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down, with expected net profits of 706 million, 832 million, and 923 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 8.602 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 706 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7% [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 19.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 22.7% [4]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market has shown a "N" shaped trend this year, with a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds re-emerging as market dynamics shift [1][25] - The bond market's main narrative has changed, indicating that current market behavior is driven more by risk appetite and asset reallocation rather than fundamental or liquidity factors [25][26] - The "look at stocks, act on bonds" strategy may continue in the third quarter, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize in the range of 1.75%-1.80% [1][28] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks reported a net profit of 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%, but with signs of marginal improvement compared to the first quarter [3] - City commercial banks showed the most significant performance improvement, with a total profit of 176.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10% but a notable increase in growth rate [3] - The outlook for the banking sector suggests that net interest margins may stabilize in the short term due to regulatory controls on deposit renewals and interbank rates [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Baiyunshan (600332) achieved a revenue of 41.835 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%, with a net profit of 2.516 billion yuan, down 1.31% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its health product segment and enhancing its international market presence, with significant growth in overseas revenue [6][9] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to increased competition and insufficient demand, lowering expected revenues to 78.013 billion yuan and 81.185 billion yuan respectively [9] Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - Kunlun Energy (00135) reported a revenue of 97.543 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, with a total gas sales volume growth of 10.05% [42][43] - The company's LNG processing and transportation segment performed well, achieving record profitability despite a slight decrease in revenue [43][44] - The outlook for the energy sector remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in gas sales and operational efficiency improvements [43][44] Group 5: Retail and Consumer Goods - Xiaoshangcheng (600415) reported a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, with a net profit growth of 16.78% [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its trade services and has successfully completed trials for various consumer goods, indicating strong potential for future growth [10] - The outlook for the retail sector is optimistic, with expectations for continued growth driven by new market openings and the Belt and Road Initiative [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock with expected returns exceeding 20% over the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 (25H1) was 3.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.01%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.71% to 268 million yuan [1]. - The company continues to implement a high dividend strategy, distributing 229 million yuan in cash dividends, which represents 95.13% of its distributable profits [1]. - The company is experiencing stable growth in its custom home business and rapid development in overseas markets, with overseas revenue increasing by 33.22% to 191 million yuan in 25H1 [2]. Financial Performance - The comprehensive gross profit margin for 25H1 was 18.27%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 7.43%, up 1.07 percentage points [3]. - The company reported a decrease in operating cash flow, with a net inflow of 107 million yuan, down from 171 million yuan year-on-year [3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 650 million, 760 million, and 870 million yuan respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook amid industry challenges [4]. Business Segments - In terms of product revenue, decorative materials accounted for 2.8 billion yuan, a decline of 8.58%, while cabinet business revenue grew by 5.72% to 441 million yuan [2]. - The company has successfully completed the recruitment of 847 township stores and has upgraded its retail model to adapt to market trends [4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.79 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.20 [5][11]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 8.74 billion yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.83 [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - Dong Chengfei, the chief research officer of Ruijun Asset, has made new investments in Yangjie Technology and Tubao, while reducing holdings in Chipon Micro [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Activities - Dong Chengfei's Ruijun Youfu No.1 private fund has newly invested in Yangjie Technology, acquiring 2.5533 million shares with a market value of 133 million yuan, accounting for 0.47% of the circulating shares [3][5]. - The fund also purchased 6.068 million shares of Tubao, with a market value of 59 million yuan, making it the ninth largest circulating shareholder [7][9]. - Holdings in Chipon Micro were reduced by 420,000 shares, bringing the total to 2.4158 million shares, with a market value of 135 million yuan [10]. Group 2: Company Performance - Yangjie Technology reported a total revenue of 3.455 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 20.58%, and a net profit of 601 million yuan, up 41.55% [5]. - Tubao achieved a revenue of 3.634 billion yuan, a decline of 7.01%, but net profit rose by 9.71% to 268 million yuan [9]. - Chipon Micro's revenue for the first half of the year was 636 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 40.32%, with a net profit of 90 million yuan, up 106.02% [11]. Group 3: Market Trends - Yangjie Technology's stock price has increased approximately 34% year-to-date, recovering from a drop to 37.59 yuan per share in April [5]. - Tubao's stock has decreased by about 8.8% since the beginning of the year [9]. - Chipon Micro's stock price has risen by around 47% year-to-date [11].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Dong Chengfei, Chief Research Officer of Ruijun Asset, has made new investments in Yangjie Technology and Tubao, while reducing holdings in Chipeng Microelectronics as of August 20, 2025 [1]. Group 1: Yangjie Technology - Dong Chengfei's Ruijun Youfu No. 1 private equity fund has newly entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Yangjie Technology, acquiring 2.5533 million shares with a reference market value of 133 million yuan, accounting for 0.47% of circulating shares [3][4]. - Yangjie Technology reported a total revenue of 3.455 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 601 million yuan, up 41.55% [5]. - The company's stock price has risen approximately 34% year-to-date, recovering from a drop to 37.59 yuan per share in April to around 58 yuan per share [6]. Group 2: Tubao - Ruijun Youfu No. 1 private equity fund has also newly invested in Tubao, holding 6.068 million shares with a reference market value of 59 million yuan, making it the ninth largest circulating shareholder [8][9]. - Tubao reported a total revenue of 3.634 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 7.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 268 million yuan, an increase of 9.71% [10]. - The stock price of Tubao has decreased by approximately 8.8% year-to-date [11]. Group 3: Chipeng Microelectronics - Ruijun Youfu No. 1 and No. 3 funds have reduced their holdings in Chipeng Microelectronics by 420,000 shares, bringing the total holdings down to 2.4158 million shares, with a reference market value of 135 million yuan [13]. - Chipeng Microelectronics achieved a revenue of 636 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 40.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, up 106.02% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent investment activities of Dong Chengfei, the Chief Research Officer of Ruijun Asset, highlighting new positions in Yangjie Technology and Rabbit Baby, while reducing holdings in Chipeng Micro [2][9]. Group 1: Yangjie Technology - Dong Chengfei's Ruijun Youfu No. 1 private equity fund has newly entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Yangjie Technology, acquiring 2.5533 million shares with a reference market value of 133 million yuan, accounting for 0.47% of the circulating shares [5][6]. - Yangjie Technology reported a total revenue of 3.455 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 20.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 601 million yuan, up 41.55% [7]. - The company's stock price has increased approximately 34% year-to-date, recovering from a drop to 37.59 yuan per share in April to around 58 yuan per share [7]. Group 2: Rabbit Baby - Ruijun Youfu No. 1 private equity fund has also newly invested in Rabbit Baby, holding 6.068 million shares with a reference market value of 59 million yuan, making it the ninth largest circulating shareholder [10][11]. - Rabbit Baby reported a revenue of 3.634 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 7.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 268 million yuan, an increase of 9.71% [12]. - The stock price of Rabbit Baby has declined approximately 8.8% year-to-date [13]. Group 3: Chipeng Micro - Ruijun Youfu No. 1 and No. 3 funds have reduced their holdings in Chipeng Micro by 420,000 shares, bringing the total holdings down to 2.4158 million shares, with a reference market value of 135 million yuan [15]. - Chipeng Micro achieved a revenue of 636 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 40.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, up 106.02% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3725.22 points, just above the annual line, indicating a stable market performance despite a minor drop of 0.06% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 15,350.35 billion yuan today [1]. - A total of 21 A-shares have surpassed the annual line, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1]. Group 2: Stocks with Significant Deviation Rates - ST Kaiyuan (300338) leads with a deviation rate of 12.28%, closing at 4.34 yuan after a 12.73% increase [1]. - Anjie Technology (002635) follows with a deviation rate of 8.47%, closing at 15.72 yuan with a 10.01% increase [1]. - Water Well (600779) has a deviation rate of 3.00%, closing at 45.85 yuan after a 4.09% increase [1]. Group 3: Stocks with Minor Deviation Rates - Times Electric (688187) has a minimal deviation rate of 0.04%, closing at 45.45 yuan with a 1.00% increase [2]. - Gansu Energy (000552) shows a deviation rate of 0.12%, closing at 2.53 yuan with a 0.40% increase [1].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows positive momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index above the annual line, indicating potential investment opportunities in stocks that have recently crossed this threshold [1] Group 1: Market Overview - As of 10:29 AM today, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3733.77 points, with a slight increase of 0.17% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market is 1,083.946 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 19 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including: - Anjie Technology (002635) with a deviation rate of 8.47% and a daily increase of 10.01% [1] - Shuijingfang (600779) with a deviation rate of 3.38% and a daily increase of 4.47% [1] - Jierong Technology (002855) with a deviation rate of 2.76% and a daily increase of 4.13% [1] - Other stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include Donghua Energy (002221) and Shihua Island (*ST椰岛) [1]