Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.19 CNY [2][10]. Core Views - The company, TUBABO (兔宝宝), is a leading player in the decorative panel industry, focusing on the sales of decorative materials, particularly plywood, which is well-suited for the lower-tier market [7][14]. - The company has a strong channel layout and brand strength, targeting both C-end and small B-end markets, with significant growth potential in the underdeveloped markets [10][9]. - The report forecasts revenue growth of 0.3%, 10.3%, and 9.7% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth of 33.5%, 0.8%, and 9.3% respectively [10][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - TUBABO has been a key player in the decorative panel industry for over 30 years, becoming one of the largest in terms of sales scale and channel coverage [14]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from decorative materials, which accounted for 81% of total revenue in 2024, while the custom home business has been declining [15][22]. 2. Market Dynamics - The decorative panel market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with significant opportunities in the C-end and small B-end markets [9][61]. - The company’s main product, plywood, is favored in traditional woodworking systems, while particleboard is preferred by large custom furniture manufacturers [50][55]. 3. Channel Strategy - TUBABO is accelerating the establishment of specialty stores in rural areas, with a notable increase in the number of stores [7][10]. - The company is also enhancing its online presence through partnerships with e-commerce platforms to drive traffic and customer acquisition [7][10]. 4. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue from panel sales reached 48 billion CNY in 2024, with an 8% year-on-year growth [32]. - The brand licensing business has shown stable growth, contributing significantly to the overall gross margin, with a gross margin rate of 99% [34][38]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in the real estate market, which will positively impact the company’s business in the medium to long term [10][7]. - The company is expected to leverage its channel advantages and brand strength to capture substantial growth in the lower-tier markets [10][9].

中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，2026年去产能效果有望显现，行业供需格局改善预期增强，价格 有望回升，企业盈利有望逐步修复。此外，水泥龙头企业加速海外产能布局，将贡献更多业绩增量，拉 开龙头企业盈利差距。玻璃纤维下游新兴产业发展势头较好，AI算力需求驱动下，特种玻纤纱高景气 有望持续；城市更新驱动消费建材在旧改、修缮市场的需求释放，消费升级将带动高品质绿色建材需求 提升；终端需求改善预期较弱，"反内卷"有望加速玻璃供给侧优化。 消费建材：10月家装零售需求走弱，高品质存量需求托底消费建材市场 2025年1-10月建筑及装潢材料类零售额同比增长0.5%，其中10月单月同比下降8.3%，环比下降2.1%。 随着地产销售的走弱，存量家装市场需求有所减弱，且因新房需求大幅缩减，今年消费建材需求不及往 年同期。后续城市更新战略的持续落地将释放修缮、旧改等需求，"好房子"建设标准的推进将提升高品 质绿色建材的市场渗透率。 浮法玻璃：供给缩减，但提振效果有限，11月价格继续承压 11月浮法玻璃市场刚需变化不明显；月产能减少，行业总供给收缩；企业库存虽有所下降，但仍处于历 史高位；浮法玻璃价格进一步下滑。后续来看， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the construction and building materials sectors [10]. Core Viewpoints - The construction and building materials sector is expected to experience a spring rally in 2026, driven by improvements in construction PMI, order volume, and favorable market conditions such as a later Spring Festival and strong domestic excavator sales [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend and price-increasing stocks, recommending companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as traditional building materials with price increase potential [13][19]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: sustainable growth in renovation, thorough industry clearing in construction materials, and opportunities in high-quality leading companies in various segments [14][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a potential spring rally for the building materials sector, supported by fiscal improvements and strong domestic machinery sales [19]. - Historical data shows that the building materials index has a high probability of outperforming the market in Q1, with a 57% chance of rising based on past performance [15]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China Chemical, China National Materials, and Xinyi Glass, with target prices and buy ratings [10][38]. - Specific recommendations include: - China Chemical (601117 CH) - Target Price: 12.05 - China National Materials (600970 CH) - Target Price: 14.23 - Xinyi Glass (868 HK) - Target Price: 9.54 - Others include China United Plastic, Jinggong Steel Structure, and Dongfang Yuhong [10][38]. Market Dynamics - Recent data indicates a 1.2% week-on-week increase in national cement prices, while the average price of float glass has risen by 2.3% [2][28]. - The report notes that the domestic float glass market is stabilizing, with some regions experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [28][30]. - The electronic fabric market is also showing signs of price increases, driven by demand from PCB clients [25][33]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand in the cleanroom engineering and special electronic fabric sectors, with a focus on companies that can adapt to new production capabilities and traditional industry upgrades [14][19]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and the ongoing recovery of the real estate market, with a focus on renovation and construction materials [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The company,兔宝宝, has successfully obtained the "Zhejiang Manufacturing Certification" for its solid wood composite flooring, highlighting its commitment to quality and innovation in the home building materials sector, and marking a significant step in the transition from "Made in China" to "Quality Made in China" [1][2] Group 1: Company Achievements - The "Zhejiang Manufacturing Certification" serves as a professional endorsement of the company's over 30 years of dedication to the home building materials industry, showcasing its quality craftsmanship [1] -兔宝宝 has received multiple prestigious certifications and honors, including being listed as a national key forestry leading enterprise and a national high-tech enterprise, as well as winning the Zhejiang Provincial Government Quality Award [1][2] - The company has established a strong brand presence, recognized as a top brand in various categories, including environmental protection and quality standards [4] Group 2: Product Development and Market Position - The company has focused on technological innovation and product upgrades, leading to the development of industry-leading products with superior environmental and quality performance [2] - Despite challenges in the real estate sector,兔宝宝 has shown resilience and steady growth, with a reported revenue of 6.319 billion yuan and a net profit of 629 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.44% [3] - The company has strategically targeted high-growth, high-margin products, achieving significant sales increases in categories such as edge banding strips and cabinet doors, with edge banding strip revenue growing by 28.7% year-on-year [3][4] Group 3: Brand Strategy and Market Outlook -兔宝宝 emphasizes its mission of providing high-quality home products, focusing on environmental health, which has helped establish a strong brand image [4] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing demand for improved living environments, with expectations of continued growth driven by its brand, product quality, and supply chain advantages [5] - As the industry shifts towards high-end and environmentally friendly products,兔宝宝's strong brand value and product matrix expansion are expected to mitigate cyclical fluctuations and enhance overall development resilience [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Views - Focus on the expectation of glass cold repairs and emphasize high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials [5][6] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has slightly decreased month-on-month [7][8] - The real estate policy outlook is improving, suggesting a focus on high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices have continued to decline, with a current average price of 355.00 yuan/ton, down 0.65 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 77.10 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] - The cement market is entering the off-season, with a national shipment rate of approximately 45%, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [7][26] - The northern market is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, while some southern regions show slight recovery [7][25] Glass - The domestic float glass market prices have stabilized after a decline, with a current average price of 60.59 yuan/weight box, down 0.59 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 15.51 yuan/weight box year-on-year [39] - The production capacity of float glass has slightly decreased, with 218 out of 283 production lines currently in operation, and a daily melting capacity of 156,155 tons [8][36] - Inventory levels in key monitored provinces have decreased, with a total inventory of 59.32 million weight boxes, down 730,000 weight boxes month-on-month [38][39] Consumer Building Materials - High-quality leading companies in consumer building materials are expected to have bottom value, with recommendations for companies like SanKeTree, TuBaoBao, and WeiXing New Materials [6] - From a cyclical bottom and structural optimization perspective, companies in waterproofing and coatings are recommended due to significant supply exits and increased market share for leading companies [6] - If market conditions improve, the expected price performance ranking is waterproofing > coatings > pipes/hardware/gypsum board [6] Special Fabrics - Attention is drawn to the opportunities in AI special fabrics after recent adjustments, with domestic leaders like ZhongCai Technology benefiting from domestic substitution trends [9]

Group 1: New Consumption - The report emphasizes the continuous exploration of new products, channels, and brand changes within the new consumption sector, highlighting the resilience of leading companies despite market concerns about revenue growth and profit realization in 2026 [8][15][9] - Key sectors include eyewear, with a focus on AI and AR technologies, recommending companies like 康耐特光学 for their innovative approaches [18][30] - The潮玩 (trendy toys) sector is noted for its high growth potential, particularly with brands like 泡泡玛特 and their successful IP strategies [34][38] - The personal care and household cleaning segment is undergoing a transformation, driven by the rise of platforms like 抖音, which enhances brand visibility and sales conversion [54][55] Group 2: Export Chain - The report identifies the light industry export chain as a key area, emphasizing the importance of high pricing power, market diversification, and mature overseas production capabilities [10] - Recommendations include关注匠心家居, 共创草坪, and other companies that demonstrate strong performance in international markets [10] Group 3: Cyclical Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on quality leaders in the cyclical sector, particularly in home textiles and furniture, where companies like 水星家纺 and 欧派家居 are highlighted for their strong market positions [11][11] - The report notes the increasing differentiation within the home goods market, recommending companies that offer value and competitive pricing [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the increasing pressure in the construction materials industry, with a focus on the expected rise in real estate policies and the potential for quality leading companies in consumer building materials to gain value [2][3] - The industry is experiencing a significant downward trend, with expectations for policy tools aimed at reducing housing burdens, such as interest subsidies or tax deductions, to support housing demand [2][3] - Key companies recommended for investment include Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, and Weixing New Materials, which are seen as having bottom value and potential to benefit from policy changes [2][3] Group 2 - Cement prices have slightly decreased, with demand in southern regions recovering while northern regions face weakened demand due to cold weather [3] - The national cement enterprise shipment rate is approximately 45.5%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of about 0.4 percentage points [3] - In the glass market, prices are trending downward, with an increase in inventory levels, indicating ongoing pressure on production and sales [4] Group 3 - The focus on African supply chains includes recommendations for Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from overseas performance and domestic market recovery [5] - The stock chain is highlighted for its potential recovery, with leading companies in consumer building materials expected to see demand restoration and structural optimization [5] - Special electronic fabrics are noted for their growth potential due to high demand and supply barriers, with companies like Zhongcai Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [12]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in expectations regarding real estate policies, suggesting a focus on high-quality consumer building materials leaders. The industry is experiencing intensified downward pressure, but the anticipated policy tools aim to reduce housing burdens, which could support residential demand [6][9]. - The report recommends focusing on quality leaders in consumer building materials, such as SanKeTree, TuBaoBao, and WeiXing New Materials, as they possess bottom value and are expected to benefit from policy changes and operational turning points [6][9]. - The report notes a slight decline in cement prices and a shift in glass inventory from decrease to increase, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [7][8]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices have slightly decreased, with a national average of 355.65 yuan/ton, down 1.45 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 76.77 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement output rate is approximately 45.5%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point decrease [24][32]. - The glass market is operating weakly, with a national average price of 61.55 yuan per weight box, down 1.84 yuan per weight box week-on-week and down 15.22 yuan year-on-year. The inventory of glass has increased, indicating pressure on the market [38][40]. Recommendations - The report continues to recommend investments in the African supply chain and existing supply chain leaders, highlighting companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing as key players benefiting from demand recovery and structural optimization [9]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality leaders in the consumer building materials sector, particularly those with strong business models and growth potential, such as SanKeTree and TuBaoBao [9]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the downward slope of the industry is increasing, with a focus on the expected rise in real estate policies. The core reasons for the pressure on housing prices in major cities are linked to income and inflation expectations, as well as the rental-to-sale ratio being inverted with mortgage rates [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - As of November 21, a total of 91 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have experienced net financing inflows for five consecutive days or more, indicating strong investor interest in these stocks [1] Group 1: Stocks with Notable Financing Inflows - The stock with the longest consecutive net inflow is Yinlong Co., which has seen net buying for 11 consecutive trading days [1] - Other stocks with significant consecutive net inflows include Huadian International, Jiangsu Shentong, Tubao, Dadi Media, Gaohua Technology, Aide Biology, Aerospace Changfeng, and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with cumulative sales and amounts from January to October down 7% and 10% year-on-year respectively [1][2] - New construction and land acquisition areas have dropped approximately 70% from peak levels, with housing prices down over 35% [1][2] - The market is in a rapid bottom-seeking phase, particularly in core cities where price adjustments have significant impacts on residents' asset values [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Core city housing prices are unlikely to continue their rapid decline; the current situation is seen as an emotional clearance phase [3] - Policy measures are expected to increase in response to weakening housing prices, including potential new personal housing loan interest subsidies and adjustments to transaction taxes [1][3] - The building materials industry should focus on supportive policies, with leading companies likely to recover before the industry as a whole [1][5] Company-Specific Insights Sanhe Tree (三棵树) - Achieved relatively good performance in 2025, but its growth structure has not reached optimal status, relying on two beta strategies and one alpha strategy [6] - The "immediate residence" business and the art paint market are key growth drivers, but the rural revitalization project has not fully realized its potential [6] Rabbit Baby (兔宝宝) - Performed well in 2025, driven by strategic changes and industry trends, particularly through particle board business expansion [7] - Future performance may depend on the stability of the real estate market [7] Challenges in the Building Materials Sector - The consumer building materials industry faces challenges from fluctuations in the real estate market, which is a significant demand driver [8] - A potential second downturn in the real estate market could have a disruptive impact on company performance [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, such as Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, and others, which have advantages in market concentration [10] - In the construction industry, state-owned enterprises and companies related to the real estate chain, such as China State Construction, are expected to benefit from real estate stimulus policies [11] Future Outlook - The building materials sector is anticipated to see a positive shift as supportive policies are implemented, potentially leading to a market recovery [5] - The overall market environment remains challenging, but leading companies are expected to outperform the industry average [1][4] Additional Considerations - The investment strategy for the home appliance industry should adjust to include companies related to the real estate chain, as demand for kitchen appliances is significantly driven by new housing completions [15][16] - Opportunities exist in sectors like smart projectors and robotic vacuums, where market consolidation may benefit leading companies [17]