丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨建材 [Table_Title] 中建材两大玻纤龙头激励落地，彰显经营信心 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中国建材的两大玻纤龙头中国巨石、中材科技分别于 2025 年 12 月 31 日和 2026 年 1 月 4 日 发布股权激励草案，彰显玻纤两大龙头的经营信心。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 建材 cjzqdt11111 2026-01-05 行业研究丨点评报告 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 中建材两大玻纤龙头激励落地，彰显经营信心 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 中国建材的两大玻纤龙头中国巨石、中材科技分别于 2025 年 12 月 31 日和 2026 年 1 月 4 日 发布股权激励草案，彰显玻纤两大龙头的经营信心。 [Table_Rank] 投资评 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a clear trend in the upgrade of AI special electronic fabrics, with Low-Dk electronic fabrics being a core material for high-frequency and high-speed PCBs. The demand logic is driven by the growth in AI server volumes, increased usage per server, and enhanced value from material upgrades. The transition to M9 materials in AI PCBs is expected to significantly boost the scale of high-end special electronic fabrics [3][6] - The report outlines three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with a notable shift in consumer demand towards renovation, expected to reach nearly 70% by 2030. The African chain emphasizes the undervalued growth potential in the African market, while the AI chain looks at the industrial upgrade of special electronic fabrics [6][4] Summary by Sections Cement Market - The cement market is experiencing a seasonal decline in shipments, with an average shipment rate of 41% among major cement enterprises, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous period. Prices are being maintained in most regions, although some areas are seeing price increases [4][18] - The average national cement price is reported at 358.71 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period but down 61.77 yuan/ton year-on-year [19] Glass Market - The float glass market is showing a weak trend, with prices slightly declining and inventories increasing. The average national glass price is 61.64 yuan per weight box, down 0.35 yuan from the previous period and down 12.98 yuan year-on-year [33][30] - The production capacity of float glass has slightly decreased, with 216 out of 265 production lines operational, and a daily melting capacity of 154,105 tons, which is a reduction of 900 tons from the previous week [30][32] Special Electronic Fabrics - The report emphasizes the significant upgrade trend in Low-Dk electronic fabrics, with expected total demand for Low-Dk electronic fabrics projected at approximately 110 million meters in 2025, 220 million meters in 2026, and 320 million meters in 2027. The demand for Low-Dk second-generation fabrics is expected to reach 60 million meters in 2026 and 130 million meters in 2027 [3][6] Future Outlook - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. It recommends companies such as Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, and Oriental Yuhong for their optimal business models and growth potential [6][4]

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业深度 2025 年 12 月 23 日 强于大市 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 股价 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 菲利华 | 300395.SZ 人民币 89.18 | 买入 | | 中材科技 | 002080.SZ 人民币 33.04 | 买入 | | 东材科技 | 601208.SH 人民币 22.02 | 买入 | 资料来源： Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 12 月 19 日当地货币收市价为标准 AI Infra 升级浪潮中的材料 革命 电子布、铜箔、树脂构筑 AI PCB 介电性能核心 壁垒 AI 推理需求催化云厂商资本开支，计算效率和互联带宽协同升级。AI PCB 是 AI Infra 升级浪潮中的核心增量环节。AI PCB 三大原材料电子布、铜箔、 树脂则是构筑 PCB 介电性能的核心壁垒。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 石英纤维布和低介电电子布建议关注菲利华、中材科技、宏和科技。HVLP 铜箔建议关注德福科技、隆扬电子、铜冠铜箔。高频高速树脂建议关注 东材科技、圣泉集团。 评级面临的主要风险 AI 市场需求过热引发行业泡沫。远期供 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the building materials industry [1]. Core Views - The traditional fiberglass industry is experiencing a price recovery and improved profitability, while the specialty fabric sector is benefiting from high demand driven by AI technology [4]. - The report highlights the structural recovery of the fiberglass industry in 2025, with a focus on the resilience of demand in key sectors such as wind energy and automotive [3][4]. Summary by Sections Traditional Fiberglass - The industry is set to undergo three rounds of slight price recovery starting in 2024, with a structural rebound in profitability expected in 2025. The demand for roving is driven by high growth in wind power installations and positive trends in new energy vehicles and home appliances, although construction and export demand remain weak [3]. - By the end of 2025, the domestic roving capacity is expected to increase by 460,000 tons per year, but the growth rate of capacity is anticipated to slow down due to more rational competition among companies and reduced capital expenditures in recent years [3][4]. - The profitability of listed fiberglass companies is projected to improve significantly, with a reported net profit of 4.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 49% [9]. Specialty Electronic Fabrics - The demand for specialty electronic fabrics is experiencing a boom due to the rapid development of AI and high-frequency communication technologies. The strong growth in AI computing power is driving the demand for high-performance PCBs and chip packaging substrates [3][4]. - The global AI server shipment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.8% from 2022 to 2026, with significant increases in the demand for low dielectric electronic fabrics that meet the high-performance requirements of AI servers and switches [3][52]. - Domestic companies are rapidly catching up in the specialty electronic fabric market, with significant capacity expansions planned. For instance, China National Materials Technology plans to expand its production capacity by 94 million meters annually by 2025 [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China National Materials Technology, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Feilihua, and International Composites, which are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in the fiberglass industry and the growth in specialty electronic fabrics [4].

Summary of Quartz Co. Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on Quartz Co., which operates in the semiconductor quartz sand and quartz glass materials industry [2][4] - The global demand for semiconductor-grade quartz sand is approximately 30,000 tons, valued between 3 billion to 4.5 billion RMB [2][6] - Quartz Co. has been certified by major overseas equipment manufacturers, positioning itself as one of the few qualified suppliers globally [2][8] Key Insights and Arguments - The semiconductor quartz materials market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2025 to 2030, potentially reaching a market size of 24 billion RMB by 2030 [2][10] - Quartz Co. aims to increase its market share to 20%, with long-term profit potential estimated at 1.6 billion RMB, corresponding to a market capitalization of approximately 30 billion RMB [2][11] - For 2025, the revenue from semiconductor quartz glass materials is projected to be between 500 million to 600 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 35% to 40%, resulting in an estimated profit of around 200 million RMB [2][11] Competitive Landscape - In the high-temperature diffusion segment, Quartz Co. competes with major players like Mattson and Heraeus, while in the low-temperature etching segment, it competes with six other companies including Mattson and Heraeus [2][4][9] - Currently, only three companies can supply verified semiconductor-grade quartz sand, including Quartz Co., which has recently gained certification [8][9] Market Dynamics - The global market for semiconductor-grade quartz sand is approximately 30 billion to 45 billion RMB, with prices ranging from 100,000 to 150,000 RMB per ton [6][12] - The market for photovoltaic-grade high-purity quartz sand is around 70,000 to 80,000 tons, with Quartz Co. facing challenges due to reduced demand and increased competition [5][14] - The company expects to recover sales in the photovoltaic segment, projecting sales of 30,000 to 40,000 tons by 2030, with profits estimated between 300 million to 600 million RMB [5][14] Future Growth Expectations - The semiconductor quartz sand market is anticipated to grow to 40,000 tons by 2030, with Quartz Co. expected to capture 35% to 40% of this market, translating to revenues of 1.5 billion RMB and net profits of 750 million RMB [3][13] - The company is positioned to fill gaps in the domestic semiconductor supply chain, especially as domestic high-purity silicon sand still relies on imports [18] Additional Considerations - Quartz Co. is involved in multiple business areas, including electric light sources, optical fibers, and optics, which may contribute to its overall valuation [15] - The relationship between Yaoshi Technology and Quartz Co. is noted, as both companies may have synergistic effects in certain business areas [17] - The company’s strong product competitiveness and favorable competitive landscape make it a potential long-term investment opportunity [19]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent improvement in supply-demand policies is expected to partially reverse the current unfavorable economic situation, driven by increased domestic demand from projects like the Yaxia Hydropower Station and ongoing "anti-involution" policies [4][10] - The cyclical stocks have shown strong performance recently, with the market's expectations for price improvements rapidly increasing, indicating a potential continuation of market valuation support in the short term [4][10] - The report emphasizes that the current market environment is characterized by ample liquidity, which, combined with the low valuation levels of cyclical sectors, has contributed to the rapid upward movement of these stocks [4][10] Stock Recommendations - The August stock selection includes: SF Express (transportation), Satellite Chemical (chemicals), Anji Technology (chemicals), Heng Rui Medicine (pharmaceuticals), Bairen Medical (pharmaceuticals), Beijing Renli (services), Feiliwa (electronics), Industrial Fulian (electronics), Pengding Holdings (electronics), and Hehe Information (computers) [10][11] - The report notes that the July stock selection achieved an absolute return of 9.64%, outperforming the market benchmark (CSI 300) by 6.10 percentage points, with individual stocks like Jitu Express-W and Shenghong Technology yielding returns of 57.23% and 42.94%, respectively [6][10] Industry Analysis Transportation Sector - SF Express reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, driven by an improved product matrix and service competitiveness [12][13] Chemical Sector - Satellite Chemical achieved a record high net profit in Q4 2024, benefiting from stable raw material prices and increased sales margins, with a sales gross margin of 27.11% [14][15] - Anji Technology experienced rapid revenue growth in 2024, with a gross margin of 58.45%, attributed to market expansion and product diversification [17][18] Pharmaceutical Sector - Heng Rui Medicine's overseas licensing agreements have contributed to significant revenue growth, with Q4 2024 net profit increasing by 107.20% year-on-year [20][21] - Bairen Medical's revenue growth was driven by the successful launch of its first interventional valve product, which significantly boosted its performance in 2024 [22][23] Service Sector - Beijing Renli has a strong market presence in the human resources industry, with a broad service offering and a robust client base, positioning it for continued growth [25][26] Electronics Sector - Feiliwa is expanding its production capacity in quartz fiber cloth, targeting the growing demand in the PCB market, with a projected CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2029 [27][28] - Industrial Fulian's cloud computing business has shown significant growth, with revenue from AI servers increasing by over 150% [31][32] - Pengding Holdings is expected to achieve steady revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by cost control and product structure optimization [33][34]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including companies such as 滨江集团 (Binjiang Group) and 顺丰控股 (SF Holding) as part of the recommended investment portfolio [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a gradual appreciation of the RMB against the backdrop of easing trade policy uncertainties between the US and China, which enhances the competitiveness of Chinese exports [2][6] - The report notes a slight decrease in the overall activity of mergers and acquisitions in the A-share market, with a total of 66 disclosed transactions amounting to 5233.44 billion RMB, indicating a trend towards structural reorganization despite a decrease in the number of major deals [12] - In the nuclear fusion sector, significant advancements have been made in China's nuclear fusion technology, which is expected to benefit from ongoing investments and the development of related industrial chains [13][15] - The report discusses the emergence of a new market for AI Infra catalyzed quartz fiber cloth, with the company 菲利华 (Philips) leveraging its full industry chain advantages to gain a first-mover advantage in the electronics fabric sector [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the potential of Feiliwa (300395) in transforming its technological advantages into a first-mover advantage in the quartz fabric market, supported by a stock incentive plan that reflects the company's confidence in its future growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Opportunity - Feiliwa is entering the blue ocean market of electronic fabrics by leveraging its full industry chain advantages in quartz fibers, particularly in aerospace and semiconductor applications [2][4]. - The global PCB market in the server/data storage sector is projected to grow from $10.9 billion to $18.9 billion from 2024 to 2029, with a CAGR of 12%, indicating a significant demand for quartz fabric due to its excellent dielectric properties [3]. Group 2: Technological Edge - Feiliwa has a 60-year history in quartz technology, making it one of the few manufacturers capable of mass-producing quartz fibers, which are critical for high-precision applications [4]. - The company has developed a second-generation ultra-low loss quartz electronic fabric, directly competing with international giants like Shin-Etsu Chemical [4]. Group 3: Stock Incentive Plan - The stock incentive plan aims to motivate 255 core technical and sales personnel by granting 1.6881 million shares at a price significantly below the market price, with performance targets tied to net profit growth [5]. - The plan is designed to enhance employee engagement and operational efficiency, reflecting the company's commitment to its core talent [5]. Group 4: Financial Projections - Feiliwa's projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.16, 1.65, and 2.45 yuan, respectively, with a total market capitalization of approximately 39.7 billion yuan as of July 25, 2025 [6]. - The corresponding PE ratios for these years are expected to be 65.4, 46.0, and 31.1 times, indicating a strong growth outlook [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 76.10 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging its technological advantages to transition quartz fabric from "0 to 1," establishing a first-mover advantage in the emerging AI Infra market. The company is expanding into the electronic fabric sector, supported by its full industry chain capabilities and a strong commitment to core talent through stock incentives, reflecting confidence in future growth [4][9]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve EPS of RMB 1.16, 1.65, and 2.45 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The total market capitalization is approximately RMB 39.74 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 65.4, 46.0, and 31.1 for the same years [6][11]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth trajectory with expected revenues of RMB 2,318 million in 2025, RMB 3,366 million in 2026, and RMB 5,052 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 33.1%, 45.2%, and 50.1% respectively [8][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a 60-year history in quartz technology, positioning itself as a leading supplier in aerospace and semiconductor sectors. It is one of the few manufacturers capable of mass-producing quartz fiber, which is critical for the electronic fabric market. The company is actively expanding its production capacity to capture opportunities in this blue ocean market [9][10]. - The stock incentive plan aims to bind 255 core technical and sales personnel, granting 1.6881 million shares at a price significantly below the market price, with performance targets based on net profit growth over the next three years [9][10].

Group 1 - The rapid development of AI computing power is driving the upgrade of PCBs towards high-frequency and high-speed applications, leading to an explosion in demand for specialty electronic fabrics [3][5] - Specialty electronic fabrics are high-performance woven materials that optimize chemical composition and manufacturing processes to achieve specific electrical, thermal, or mechanical properties, supporting high-frequency signal transmission and reducing energy loss [3][10] - The market for AI/HPC server PCBs (excluding packaging substrates) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 32.5% from 2023 to 2028, significantly higher than other sectors [3][10] Group 2 - Low-DK electronic fabrics, characterized by low dielectric constant (DK) and low dielectric loss (DF), are crucial for AI servers and data center switches, enhancing signal efficiency in high-frequency environments [10][11] - The demand for Low-DK fabrics is projected to grow rapidly in 2024, driven by the transition to low-dielectric PCBs in AI server architectures and the global data center upgrade [10][11] - The global Low-DK electronic fabric market is expected to exceed $200 million by 2025 and reach $530 million by 2031, with a CAGR of 18.7% [11][16] Group 3 - Quartz fiber fabric (Q fabric), a high-performance material, is expected to see strong demand growth due to its application in advanced packaging technologies for AI hardware and data center switches [12][19] - The third-generation low-dielectric electronic fabric, Q fabric, utilizes high-purity silica to achieve ultra-low dielectric constant and loss, presenting significant technical barriers to mass production [12][19] - The core mission of Low-CTE electronic fabrics is to address thermal management issues in advanced chip packaging, with demand surging due to the explosive growth of AI computing power [19][20] Group 4 - Domestic manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion in the specialty electronic fabric sector, responding to the growing demand from AI computing power upgrades [22][24] - Key suppliers of specialty electronic fabrics include Japanese, Taiwanese, and mainland Chinese companies, with domestic firms rapidly increasing production capabilities to meet market needs [22][24] - The competitive advantage of specialty electronic fabric suppliers lies in their ability to quickly innovate product performance and scale up production [22][24]