| | | | | 【国泰海通建材】市场一致预期估值表 (鲍雁辛团队) 20250723 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 总市值(亿元) | | 归母净利(亿元) | PE | | PB | | | | | | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | (MRQ) | | | 600585.SH | 海螺水泥 | 1381 | 90.0 | 100.0 | 15.3 | 13.8 | 0.76 | | | 600801.SH | 华新水泥 | 319 | 25.0 | 30.0 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 1.08 | | | 000672.SZ | 上峰水泥 | 100 | 8.0 | વે છ | 12.6 | 10.6 | 1.11 | | | | 塔牌集团 | 104 | 7.5 | | 13.9 | 13.0 | 0.86 | | | 002233.SZ | | | | 8.0 | | | | | | 000877.SZ | 天山股份 | ...

内容概要：作为全球最大的人造板生产国与消费国，中国人造木板行业技术不断革新、产品不断升级。 阻燃板是在人造木板的基础上添加了阻燃剂制成的特种板材。它既具有人造木板的一些基本特性，又拥 有更出色的防火性能，适用于对防火要求较高的场所，如公共场所、高层建筑等，因此在各个领域得到 了广泛应用。据统计，2019-2024年，我国阻燃板专利数量2761件，2020-2022年我国阻燃板专利数量连 续三年超过400件的专利，2021年达到482件。 上市企业：大亚圣象（000910）、兔宝宝（002043）、北新建材（000786）、华源股份（600094）、华 源股份（900940）、中集集团（000039）、金发科技（600143）、普利特（002324） 相关企业：千年舟新材科技集团股份有限公司、上海华源复合新材料有限公司、上海普利特复合材料股 份有限公司 关键词：阻燃板产业链、阻燃板代表企业经营现状、阻燃板市场规模、阻燃板专利数量、阻燃板市场竞 争格局、阻燃板行业发展趋势 一、阻燃板行业定义及分类 阻燃板是指通过物理或化学方法处理，使其具有抑制或延缓火焰蔓延性能的板材。阻燃板在遇到明火时 能够减缓燃烧速度、降低热 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 稳经济措施加码，重大水电项目落地 2025 年 07 月 21 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 2024/7/22 2024/11/19 2025/3/19 2025/7/17 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 价格上涨的主要是湖南省，幅度 10 元/吨。七月中旬，随着天气好转， 下游市场需求环比略有提升，全国重点地区水泥企业平均出货率维持约 46%，环比增加 2.4 个百分点。价格方面，由于整体市场需求依旧较弱， 以及多数地区错峰生产执行力度不够，供需矛盾无明显缓解，导致部分 地区价格仍在小幅下探，预计后期价格将延续 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The establishment of China Yajiang Group marks the orderly advancement of major engineering projects, with significant investment opportunities in geotechnical engineering and civil explosives [1][8] - The demand for civil explosives is expected to concentrate further, benefiting companies like Guangdong Hongda and Xuefeng Technology [1] - The traditional industry is experiencing a "anti-involution" trend, with recommendations for cement leaders such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [1][9] - Domestic substitution is gaining momentum, with recommendations for companies like Maijia Xincai and Songjing Co., which are expected to benefit from tariff relief and increased shipping demand [1][10] Summary by Sections 1. Market Trends - In the 29th week, new housing and second-hand housing market transaction volumes showed a downward trend, with new housing transaction area in 30 major cities down by 25% year-on-year [2][23] - The average price of cement in the national market is 356 RMB/ton, continuing to decline with a drop of 1% [3][27] 2. Investment Opportunities - Major water conservancy and hydropower projects are expected to generate substantial demand for engineering, building materials, and civil explosives, with total investment in the Yarlung Hydropower Project estimated at approximately 1.2 trillion RMB [8] - The civil explosives industry is undergoing consolidation, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aiming to reduce the number of production enterprises to 50 by 2025 [8] 3. Cement Industry Analysis - Cement prices are under downward pressure, particularly in East and Southwest China, with average shipment rates around 43.2% [3][27] - The cement market is expected to continue experiencing price fluctuations due to weak overall demand and high inventory levels [27][54] 4. Recommendations - Recommended companies include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and companies in the waterproofing sector like Dongfang Yuhong and Keshun Co. [1][9] - For domestic substitution, companies like Maijia Xincai and Songjing Co. are highlighted for their growth potential in the ship coating sector [1][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The glass fiber industry is expected to perform well, with strong earnings forecasts for companies like China National Materials and China Jushi, driven by wind power demand and AI applications [6][10] - The cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month, indicating a potential recovery in demand [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, with leading companies being the main investment focus for the year [10] Summary by Sections Glass Fiber - The mid-year earnings forecast for glass fiber is optimistic, with China National Materials expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 670-830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186-254% [6] - China Jushi's net profit is projected to be around 1.65-1.70 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 163-171% [6] - The demand for ordinary glass fiber remains under pressure, while special electronic fabrics are experiencing accelerated growth due to the AI wave [6][10] Cement - Cement prices have continued to decline, with average prices at 352.74 yuan per ton, down 0.65 yuan month-on-month and 45.32 yuan year-on-year [27] - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions is 43%, remaining stable month-on-month but down 3 percentage points year-on-year [27] - There are plans for price increases in certain regions as prices approach bottom levels [27] Glass - The domestic float glass market prices are stable, with slight increases in some areas, and overall demand remains cautious [9][41] - The production capacity utilization rate for the float glass industry is at 82.09%, with a total of 283 production lines [9] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 5.734 million weight boxes, down 97,000 weight boxes month-on-month [9][41] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, highlighting companies like China National Materials and Keda Manufacturing as key players [10] - It also suggests that the demand for building materials is expected to rise, particularly in the renovation sector, benefiting companies with strong business models [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses three potential paths for the construction materials industry to counteract "involution," aiming to alleviate deflation and stabilize employment. These paths include limiting capital expenditure, clearing existing production capacity, and constraining current output [6][7] - The report highlights the ongoing decline in cement prices and a decrease in glass inventory, indicating a weak demand environment [8] - Recommendations include focusing on special glass fiber and the African supply chain, with leading companies in existing markets being the main investment focus for the year [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the need for the construction materials industry to adapt to economic pressures through various strategies to manage supply and demand effectively [6][7] Market Performance - Cement prices have continued to decline, with the national average price dropping by 1.2% due to weak market demand and production issues [8][25] - The average cement price is reported at 353.39 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 41.13% [25] Recommendations - Special glass fiber is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly in companies like China National Materials Technology, which is positioned to benefit from domestic substitution trends [9] - The African supply chain is also recommended, with companies like Keda Manufacturing showing strong performance in niche markets [9] Demand Trends - The report notes a significant decline in real estate transaction volumes, with a 17% year-on-year decrease in new home sales across 30 major cities [8] - The construction materials sector is expected to see a shift towards existing inventory products, driven by improved demand in the second-hand housing market and urban renovation policies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company,兔宝宝, reported its 2024 annual financial results, showing a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit, raising questions about the management's performance and compensation [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024,兔宝宝 achieved an operating revenue of 9.189 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.39% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 585 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.11% [3][4]. - The company faced challenges such as intense industry competition and fluctuations in raw material prices, prompting strategic adjustments [5]. Management Compensation - The total compensation for General Manager陆利华 increased to 1.441 million yuan in 2024, up from 1.175 million yuan in 2023, making him the second-highest paid executive in the company [4]. - Chairman丁鸿敏 received a higher compensation of 1.992 million yuan in 2024, surpassing陆利华's salary by approximately 550,000 yuan [4]. Strategic Outlook - The company is actively adjusting its strategy and optimizing its product structure to maintain operational stability amid market challenges [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 14.00 [6][12]. Core Views - The company demonstrates operational resilience in its board segment, while the non-board segment is shifting towards higher value products. The trend of cost reduction remains positive, and there is a concentrated risk of impairment at year-end. The value of high shareholder returns continues to be highlighted [2][12]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9,063 million in 2023, with a slight increase to 9,189 million in 2024, and further growth to 11,555 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.2% from 2024 to 2027 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 689 million in 2023 to 585 million in 2024, before recovering to 1,003 million by 2027, indicating a significant growth of 54.7% in 2025 [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to decline from 0.83 in 2023 to 0.70 in 2024, then rise to 1.21 by 2027 [4][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 21.5% in 2023 to 19.2% in 2024, before increasing to 24.8% by 2027 [4][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The board segment is expected to maintain strong double-digit growth in 2024, while other decorative materials are projected to generate approximately 21.4 billion in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 7.6% [12]. - The customized home segment is anticipated to decline by 18.73%, primarily due to the contraction of the Yufeng Hantang scale [12]. Cost Management - The company is expected to reduce management expenses by approximately 0.54 billion in 2024, with financial expenses also decreasing by about 0.21 billion [12]. - The trend of decreasing absolute costs is expected to continue into 2025, showcasing effective internal cost control [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a profit distribution plan for the end of 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 3.2 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to a total cash dividend of 4.93 billion, which corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 6% [12].

Summary of the Conference Call for Rabbit Baby Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses Rabbit Baby, a company focused on the building materials industry, particularly in the production and distribution of wood-based panels and home decoration products. Key Points and Arguments Market Strategy and Revenue Growth - Rabbit Baby is actively pursuing channel penetration, focusing on mid-western cities and economically developed county-level towns, with expected revenue from town channels reaching 3.9 billion in 2023 and 9 billion in 2024, aiming to develop 1,500 stores by 2025 [2][5][4] - The furniture factory channel accounts for 39% of the company's total market channels, showing rapid growth, with a focus on particle board in northern markets and multi-layer and solid wood boards in southern regions [2][6] Product and Service Integration - The company has merged its panel and home decoration company channels to form a home decoration operation company, which is expected to generate nearly 14 billion in revenue in 2024, marking it as a significant growth point [2][8] - The engineering channel primarily targets public projects and has shifted from basic materials to quick-install materials like honeycomb aluminum fireproof panels [2][9] Supply Chain and Cost Management - Rabbit Baby maintains profit margins through strengthened supply chain management and cost control, ensuring supplier profitability while seeking cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4][15] - The company has adjusted its product structure to include flooring and integrated wall products to boost sales and enhance customer loyalty through promotional activities [5][4] Retail and Online Strategy - The establishment of a new retail operation center aims to assist distributors in creating online stores, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu to drive orders [10][4] Performance and Risk Management - The company reported a slow market recovery in Q1 2025, with a slight rebound in April followed by a decline in May. The full custom home business saw growth in order volume during the same period [3][11] - Risk control is emphasized in the Qingdao business, focusing on managing accounts receivable and ensuring healthy operations for distributors [11][4] Competitive Landscape and Consumer Behavior - The company faces competition from small enterprises, with a significant number exiting the market, providing opportunities for leading brands to capture market share [15][16] - Consumer preferences vary by region, with northern markets favoring particle boards due to climatic conditions, while southern markets show a stronger preference for solid wood and multi-layer boards [18] Future Outlook and Dividend Strategy - The company plans to maintain stable or increasing absolute dividend amounts rather than focusing solely on dividend rates, with a target to match or exceed the 2024 dividend level of 0.28 per share [28] - There are no immediate plans to diversify into new business areas, with a focus on core operations and avoiding blind investments [28] Additional Important Insights - The company has implemented channel incentives to promote inventory turnover, ensuring that stock levels remain within reasonable limits [14][27] - The integration of high-margin products like gypsum boards and adhesives into the sales strategy is expected to enhance overall profitability [19][20] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Rabbit Baby's strategic initiatives, market positioning, and future outlook in the building materials industry.

综合实力获高度认可 当深耕家居建材领域三十余年的品牌兔宝宝，正式成为新华社"中国名牌"专项服务合作伙伴，其意义已 远超品牌曝光本身。这标志着中国家居品牌以如此核心的身份，深度融入媒体主导的品牌建设工程，开 启了一段相互赋能、共塑品牌形象的新征程。 回望中国家居行业的发展历程，兔宝宝与新华社"中国名牌"的联合具有标志性的意义： 1. 实力认证：它是对兔宝宝作为品牌标杆企业综合实力、品牌美誉度及可持续发展能力的"官宣"认可。 2. 行业赋能：为行业示范与媒体深度联合的新样本，极大提振了行业信心，指明了品牌化、高端化、国 际化的发展方向，加速推动行业从"中国制造"向"中国品牌"的华丽转身。 3. 价值跃升：兔宝宝品牌价值获得质的飞跃。 兔宝宝成为新华社"中国名牌"专项服务合作伙伴，绝非终点，而是一个更高起点。两者的深度融合，所 产生的能量将驱动品牌更高质量的发展，同时也照亮产业升级的道路，并在世界舞台上，共同擦亮"中 国名牌"的金字招牌，书写属于中国品牌的"双赢"未来。 成为新华社"中国名牌"专项服务合作伙伴，是对兔宝宝品牌综合实力、行业地位、社会贡献及未来发展 潜力的高度认可。 "我们期待兔宝宝以此次合作为契机， ...