[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 05 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：13.41 元 太阳纸业（002078）轻工制造 目标价：16.20 元（6 个月） 毛利率周期波动，产能持续稳步扩充 [Table_Summary 业绩摘要：2024] 前三季度公司实现营收 309.8 亿元，同比+6.1%；实现归母净 利润 24.6 亿元，同比+15.1%；实现扣非净利润 26 亿元，同比+24.3%。Q3 公 司实现营收 104.5 亿元，同比+6％；实现归母净利润 7 亿元，同比-20.8%；实 现扣非后归母净利润 7.7亿元，同比-10.7%。推测营收增长主要得益于公司产能 扩张后销量的持续增长，南宁基地年产 30 万吨生活用纸（一期）项目在今年三 季度陆续进入试产阶段。 Q3毛利率周期波动，受浆价纸价影响。24年前三季度公司整体毛利率为 16.4%， 同比+0.9pp，单 Q3 毛利率为 14%，同比-2.8pp。Q3 毛利率下滑推测主要系高 价木浆入库，原材料库存成本上涨，叠加行业需求偏弱、市场竞争加剧导致文化 纸价格下行。24年 Q3针叶浆吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [10]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight earnings beat in Q3 2024, with revenues of 30.975 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.459 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing cost advantages and resilience in profitability despite external pressures, with a focus on internal optimization and cost control [10]. - The company is expected to face challenges in Q4 2024 due to weak demand and price pressures in the cultural paper segment, while the boxboard segment remains relatively stable [6][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 30.975 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.459 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.1% increase year-on-year [5]. - The Q3 2024 results showed a revenue of 10.451 billion yuan, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 20.8% compared to the previous year [5][10]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected to be around 16.0%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.0% for 2024 [8][10]. Market and Industry Outlook - The cultural paper prices are expected to decline further in Q4 2024 due to seasonal demand weakness and supply-side disruptions, impacting profitability [6][10]. - The boxboard and corrugated paper segments are showing signs of slow recovery, with stable pricing expected in Q3 2024 [6][10]. - The company is enhancing its production capabilities with new projects and expanding its raw material base, which is anticipated to support long-term growth [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a steady revenue growth of 5.99% year-on-year in Q3 2024, achieving a revenue of 10.451 billion yuan, despite a declining trend in paper prices [2][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.84% year-on-year to 0.701 billion yuan in Q3 2024, while the non-recurring net profit decreased by 10.74% year-on-year to 0.774 billion yuan [2][6] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability in Q4 2024 due to a significant decline in pulp prices, which will alleviate cost pressures [2][6] - The company is advancing its capacity expansion projects, reinforcing its integrated advantages in the forestry-pulp-paper industry [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 30.975 billion yuan, up 6.07% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.459 billion yuan, up 15.08% year-on-year [6][11] - In Q3 2024, the company’s gross margin was 13.96%, down 2.77 percentage points year-on-year [6][10] - The company’s expense ratio in Q3 was 5.59%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [2][6] Capacity Expansion - The company is progressing with its capacity expansion projects, including the first phase of the Nanning project, which is expected to start trial production in Q4 2025 [6][7] - The company is also relocating and upgrading its dissolving pulp production line in Shandong, expected to be completed by Q2 2025 [6][7] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 42.169 billion yuan, 45.714 billion yuan, and 48.593 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.64%, 8.41%, and 6.30% respectively [6][7] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.290 billion yuan, 3.749 billion yuan, and 4.242 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 6.63%, 13.93%, and 13.16% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient performance in Q3 2024 with revenue of 10.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.8% to 700 million yuan [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to weak demand, falling paper prices, and rising costs [1] - The company is expanding its production capacity steadily, with several projects expected to come online by 2025, including a new specialty paper project in Shandong and additional production lines in Nanning [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 30.98 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.46 billion yuan, which is a 15.1% increase year-on-year [1] - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 3.24 billion, 3.71 billion, and 4.22 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11X, 10X, and 9X [3] Production Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with several key projects: 1. The Shandong Yandian plant's 37,000-ton specialty paper project is expected to enter trial production in the first half of 2025 [2] 2. The Nanning project has achieved stable production for its high-end packaging paper lines, with further expansions planned [2] 3. The Laos base has made significant progress in its pulp plantation project, with over 10,050 hectares signed for planting [2] Market Conditions - The cultural paper segment is experiencing weakened profitability, with prices for double glue paper and copper plate paper showing mixed trends [4] - The company has announced a price increase for its non-coated paper products starting November 1, 2024, in anticipation of demand recovery [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported its Q3 2024 results, indicating that asset disposals have negatively impacted net profit [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 30.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.459 billion yuan, up 15.08% year-on-year [1] - The third quarter saw operating revenue of 10.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.99%, but net profit decreased by 20.84% to 701 million yuan [1] - The company confirmed credit impairment losses and asset disposals in Q3, which affected performance [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 16.35%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 was 13.96%, a decrease of 2.77 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company expects revenue for 2024 to be 39.544 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders to be 3.086 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.5% increase [2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 1.15 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.87 [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with several projects underway, including a 37,000-ton specialty paper project expected to enter trial production in the first half of 2025 [1][2] Capacity Expansion and Projects - The company is advancing its projects, including the relocation and upgrade of a 200,000-ton dissolving pulp production line, expected to be completed by Q2 2025 [1] - The Nanning base is implementing a high-end packaging paper production line project, with two paper machines expected to enter trial production in Q4 2025 [1] - The Nanning life paper project is planned in two phases, with the first phase already in trial production [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] - The target price is set at 17.27, with the current price at 13.27 [4] Core Views - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations, showcasing resilience in operational management [12] - The report anticipates stable production and sales, with a slight decline in cultural paper volume expected in Q3 2024 due to production shifts [13] - The company is expected to maintain its earnings forecast, with EPS projected at 1.15, 1.39, and 1.52 for 2024-2026 [13] - The report highlights the company's strategic production and procurement arrangements that have helped maintain lower raw material costs [13] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 39,544 million, with a slight decrease of 0.6% from 2022 [11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 3,086 million, reflecting a 9.9% increase from the previous year [11] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 50,551 million in 2023 to 55,050 million in 2024 [14] - The net debt ratio stands at 53.13% [8] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is reported at 37,084 million [7] - The stock price has fluctuated between 11.53 and 16.27 over the past 52 weeks [7] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.02 based on the latest diluted share capital [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.15, 1.31, and 1.49 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12X, 10X, and 9X [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 30.975 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.459 billion yuan, up 15.08% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the impact of rising raw material inventory costs on short-term profitability, with a gross margin of 16.35% for the reporting period, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report notes a decline in raw material prices, with prices for needle pulp, broadleaf pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp at 6,225, 4,615, and 3,700 yuan per ton respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +1.53%, -15.11%, and -22.38% [2]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its integrated operations in forestry, pulp, and paper, with several projects expected to commence trial production by 2025 [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financial metrics include: - Revenue (in million yuan): 39,544.34 for 2023, 42,411.31 for 2024, 46,029.42 for 2025, and 51,677.23 for 2026, with growth rates of -0.56%, 7.25%, 8.53%, and 12.27% respectively [7]. - Net profit (in million yuan): 3,085.69 for 2023, 3,218.44 for 2024, 3,655.79 for 2025, and 4,170.55 for 2026, with profit growth rates of 9.86%, 4.30%, 13.59%, and 14.08% respectively [7]. - Gross margin is expected to slightly improve from 15.89% in 2023 to 16.15% in 2026 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance with a revenue of 30.975 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.459 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [1] - The integration of the industrial chain is solidifying the company's underlying profitability, with Q3 performance slightly exceeding expectations despite some operational challenges [1][4] - The company is progressing steadily with its Nanning project, which is expected to enhance its integrated pulp and paper production capabilities [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, but a net profit of 0.701 billion yuan, down 20.8% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 14.0%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.7%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 2.781 billion yuan, an increase of 1.205 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating stable cash flow and operational capability [4] Industry Insights - The wood pulp segment is facing price pressure, with expected continued declines in profitability due to weak domestic demand and rising costs [2] - The waste paper segment is showing signs of stabilization, with a 2.2% increase in national waste paper prices in Q3 2024, suggesting potential for slight recovery in profitability [2] - The company is advancing its production capacity, with total capacity exceeding 12 million tons, including 5 million tons of pulp and 7.14 million tons of paper [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.451 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.84% to 0.701 billion yuan [2]. - The company's production capacity is steadily increasing, with a good supply-demand balance in dissolving pulp and coated paper, which is expected to drive revenue growth [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence in South China through the development of its Guangxi base and aims to strengthen its integrated supply chain [2]. - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 3.2 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 12X, 10X, and 9X [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.451 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.701 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.99% in revenue but a decline of 20.84% in net profit [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 30.975 billion yuan, a 6.07% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.459 billion yuan, which is a 15.08% increase [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 were 13.96% and 6.74%, respectively, showing a decline of 2.78 and 2.29 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. Capacity and Production Insights - The company has achieved full production capacity of 1 million tons of boxboard paper in Guangxi and has increased its production capacity of household paper by 150,000 tons [2]. - The company is advancing its integrated production projects in Nanning, which include high-end boxboard paper and various types of pulp [2]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 increased by 76.40% year-on-year to 2.781 billion yuan, primarily due to increased tax refunds [2]. - The company’s accounts receivable increased by 12.15% to 3.579 billion yuan, attributed to contractual payment terms [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.93 CNY, based on a 1.7x PB valuation for 2024 [2][23]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 30.975 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.459 billion CNY, up 15.08% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 10.451 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.99% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.09%. However, net profit for Q3 was 701 million CNY, down 20.84% year-on-year and 12.61% quarter-on-quarter [1][10][11]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance Overview - Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, showcasing strong profitability resilience at the cycle's bottom. The net profit for Q3 decreased by 12.6% to 701 million CNY, primarily due to weak industry demand, intensified supply competition, and declining paper prices. Additionally, fixed asset clearance at the Nanning base negatively impacted profits by approximately 99 million CNY [1][11][20]. Business Segment Analysis - **Cultural Paper**: Prices are on a downward trend due to weakened downstream demand and increased competition, leading to a forecasted decline in profitability for Q3 [14][18]. - **Containerboard**: Prices remained low amid flat demand, with a slight decrease in average market prices by 1% in Q3. The cost structure is expected to improve, potentially stabilizing profitability [16][18]. - **Dissolving Pulp**: Benefiting from high demand in the viscose staple fiber sector, prices increased by 2% in Q3, with a slight decrease in wood chip costs, leading to improved profitability [17][19]. Industry Outlook - The overall industry is expected to maintain low levels of prosperity in Q4, with paper prices likely to remain weak. The company is optimizing its capacity layout across various bases, with several projects expected to commence production between 2024 and 2025, enhancing its competitive strength [20][22].