太[Ta阳ble纸_Sto业ckN（am0eR0p2tT0yp7e8] ） 公司研究/公司深度 横向产品多元化，纵向林浆纸一体化 投资评级：买入（首次） 主要观点： [Table_Rank] 报告日期： 2024-04-24 ⚫[ T概ab况le：_S林um浆m纸ar一y] 体化，处于行业领军地位 太阳纸业经过40余年发展，已成为全球先进的林浆纸一体化跨国集团， [收Ta盘bl价e_（Ba元se）D ata] 15.57 拥有山东、广西和老挝三大生产基地，员工19000余人，位列中国企业 近12个月最高/最低（元） 16.27/10.26 500强，位列世界造纸30强。公司现拥有全球先进的制浆、造纸生产 总股本（百万股） 2,795 线，产品逐渐形成了以高档文化用纸、高档包装用纸、高档生活用纸、 流通股本（百万股） 2,765 流通股比例（%） 98.94 高档特种纸及特种纤维溶解浆等为主导的系列产品结构。2003-2023年 总市值（亿元） 435 公司营业收入CAGR为14.56%，归母净利润CAGR为15.56%，公司 流通市值（亿元） 430 业绩在周期波动中稳定提升。 ⚫ 行业：周期底部已过，行业格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market benchmarks [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a stable revenue of 39.544 billion yuan in 2023, a slight decrease of 0.56% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.86% to 3.086 billion yuan [2][9]. - The company's profitability is expected to remain robust in the short term, supported by seasonal demand and pricing strategies, particularly in the paper segment [9]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and land resources, with plans to increase its self-owned forest area to 120,000 hectares by 2030, enhancing its cost advantages and supporting carbon neutrality goals [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a gross margin of 15.89% for the year, an increase of 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable improvement in Q4 gross margin reaching 17.12% [2]. - Revenue from the paper segment was 30 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, driven by increased production capacity and sales volume [2][10]. - The revenue from pulp products decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced external sales and increased internal consumption [3][10]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company initiated a new project for producing 300,000 tons of household paper, with an investment of up to 1.35 billion yuan, expected to start trial production in Q3 2024 [2]. - The company plans to develop a second phase of its Nanning Park project, which includes production lines for specialty paper and chemical pulp, with a total investment of up to 7 billion yuan [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will grow to 3.719 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2024 to 2026 [9][10]. - The pricing of key products, including chemical pulp and cultural paper, is expected to remain stable in the short term, although fluctuations may occur due to market dynamics [2][9].

Compa n y U pda te C h in a Res ear ch Dep t . 2024年04月12日 太阳纸业(002078.SZ) 买进（Buy） 赵旭东 H70556@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 18 毛利率逐季改善，全年利润稳健增长 公司基本信息 结论与建议： 产业别 轻工制造 事件：公司发布2023年业绩快报，2023年实现营收395.44亿元，YOY-0.56%； A股价(2024/4/11) 15.50 录得归母净利润 30.86 亿元，YOY+9.86%；扣非后净利润 30.27 亿元， 深证成指(2024/4/11) 9300.77 YOY+9.22%，归母及扣非后净利润和业绩快报基本一致，符合预期。 股价12个月高/低 15.78/10.01 总发行股数(百万) 2794.57 其中，2023Q4实现营收103.42亿元，YOY+2.13%；录得归母净利润9.49 A股数(百万) 2764.88 亿元，YOY+75.51%；扣非后净利润 9.41 亿元，YOY+75.56%，公司 Q4 利润大 A市值(亿元) 428.56 幅提升，主要是因为下游需求恢复叠加成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for price appreciation over the next six months [1][2][10]. Core Views - The company demonstrates a significant advantage in integrated forestry and paper production, with an expected continuation of strong performance and increased dividends [1]. - The financial outlook for 2024-2026 shows a steady increase in net profit, with projections of CNY 37.1 billion, CNY 42.4 billion, and CNY 48.2 billion respectively, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of CNY 10.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 0.95 billion, up 75.5% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2023, total revenue was CNY 39.54 billion, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 9.9% to CNY 3.09 billion [1][3]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 15.9% in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [6]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from double glue paper and copper plate paper in H2 2023 was CNY 6.77 billion and CNY 1.93 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 15.5% and 32.4% [1]. - Revenue from dissolving pulp, chemical pulp, and chemical wood pulp in H2 2023 was CNY 1.76 billion, CNY 0.88 billion, and CNY 0.70 billion, with year-on-year changes of +11.6%, -18.8%, and -64.5% respectively [1]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has shown strong cost control capabilities, with a net profit margin of 7.8% in 2023, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The report highlights the company's focus on lean management and technological upgrades to enhance core competitiveness [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising pulp prices due to supply disruptions and is projected to maintain a smooth price transmission under cost support [1]. - The integrated development of forestry and paper production is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge, with production capacity expected to exceed 1.2 million tons by the end of 2023 [1][2].

造纸Ⅱ 分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 生产经营保持稳健，持续推动林浆纸一体化 l ongyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 ——太阳纸业(002078)年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 买入(首次) 市场数据(2024-04-10) 发布日期：2024年04月11日 收盘价(元) 15.41 事件： 一年内最高/最低(元) 15.41/10.26 公司发布2023年年度报告。2023年全年实现营业收入395.44亿元，同 沪深300指数 3,504.71 比下降0.56%，归母净利润30.86亿元，同比增长 9.86%，扣非归母净利润 市净率(倍) 1.65 30.27 亿元，同比增长 9.22%；经营活动产生的现金流量净额 66.17 亿元， 流通市值(亿元) 426.07 同比增长73.07%；基本每股收益1.10元；加权平均净资本收益率12.59%， 基础数据(2023-12-31) 同比+0.84pct；拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利3元(含税)。 每股净资产(元) 9.32 其中2023Q4，公司实现营业收入103.42亿元，同比增长2.13%，归母 每 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.0 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 15.50 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 39.54 billion CNY for 2023, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.9% to 3.09 billion CNY. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 10.34 billion CNY, up 2.1% year-on-year, and net profit surged by 75.5% to 0.95 billion CNY [1][2]. - The company experienced positive growth in cultural paper, while revenue from corrugated box paper and pulp products declined. Non-coated paper and coated paper revenues were 13.31 billion CNY and 3.51 billion CNY, reflecting increases of 22.6% and 10.4% respectively. Conversely, revenues from kraft linerboard and corrugated base paper fell to 9.81 billion CNY and 0.05 billion CNY, down 5.7% and 51.6% respectively [1]. - The company has increased its dividend payout from 2 CNY to 3 CNY per 10 shares, raising the dividend payout ratio from 19.9% to 27.2% [1]. - The company is accelerating the expansion of new projects, including a significant investment of up to 7 billion CNY for a new production line in Nanning, which is expected to enhance product structure and expand market channels in southern China [1]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.3 CNY, 1.6 CNY, and 1.8 CNY per share, respectively, with a reasonable valuation based on a 12x PE ratio for 2024, leading to a target price of 16.0 CNY per share [1][2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company achieved an EBITDA of 6.25 billion CNY, with a projected EBITDA growth of 11.8% in 2024 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 11.8%, with expectations for gradual improvement in the coming years [2][8]. - The company's total assets reached 50.55 billion CNY in 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 48.3%, indicating a decrease of 3.48 percentage points year-on-year [1][8].

%% research.95579.com %% 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨太阳纸业（ ） 002078.SZ [太Ta阳b纸le_业Ti2tl0e2] 3A 年报点评： 向质而行，靓丽业绩有望延续 报告要点 [太Ta阳ble纸_S业um2m0a2r3y]年实现营收/归母净利润/扣非净利润 395.4/30.9/30.3 亿元，同比- 0.6%/+9.9%/+9.2%，实现股权激励目标且创下历史最高年度业绩，2023Q4 实现营收/归母净 利润/扣非净利润 103.4/9.5/9.4 亿元，同比+2%/+76%/+76%，公司派发每股现金红利 0.3 元 （含税），分红金额8.38亿元，分红比例27%（较2022年提升7pcts）。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 15.41 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 39.54 billion CNY in 2023, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.9% to 3.09 billion CNY [2]. - The profitability showed a significant improvement in Q4 2023, with a net profit of 0.95 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.5% [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2023 was 15.9%, up by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 17.1%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 39.54 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.09 billion CNY, and a non-recurring net profit of 3.03 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year increases of 9.9% and 9.2% respectively [2]. - The Q4 performance showed a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY, with a net profit of 0.95 billion CNY, marking a 75.5% increase year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The gross margin for various products in 2023 included: non-coated cultural paper at 16.6% (+0.1pp), coated paper at 12.9% (-2.3pp), and corrugated boxboard at 14.7% (+4.5pp) [2]. - The company sold 6.66 million tons of paper products in 2023, a 19.6% increase, while pulp sales volume decreased by 20.7% to 1.46 million tons [3]. Market Trends - Price stability for cultural paper was noted, with prices remaining around 6,000 CNY/ton in late 2023, and a slight increase to 5,900 CNY/ton in early 2024 due to seasonal demand [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from price increases in the cultural paper segment, supported by cost stability and improved demand [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its integrated production capacity, achieving stable operations in its new production lines, with total capacity exceeding 12 million tons by the end of 2023 [7]. - New projects, including a 300,000-ton life paper production line, are set to begin trial production in Q3 2024 [7]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.34 CNY, 1.48 CNY, and 1.60 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12x, 10x, and 10x [7].

业绩符合预期，盈利逐季改善 太阳纸业（002078.SZ）/轻工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月10日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 市场价格：15.05元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 39,767 39,544 44,003 46,314 48,630 分析师：张潇 增长率yoy% 24% -1% 11% 5% 5% 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 净利润（百万元） 2,809 3,086 3,612 3,932 4,231 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -5% 10% 17% 9% 8% 每股收益（元） 1.01 1.10 1.29 1.41 1.51 分析师：邹文婕 每股现金流量 1.37 2.37 1.78 2.13 2.41 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 净资产收益率 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn P/E 15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sun Paper Industry (002078) with a target price raised to 19.20 CNY from the previous forecast of 16.38 CNY [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong earnings and a continuous expansion of core advantages, driven by deep upstream resource layout and a clear upward trend in profitability [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a smooth price increase during peak seasons, with stable operations and a robust demand for its products [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report projects revenue growth from 39,544 million CNY in 2023 to 50,268 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [2][3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 3,086 million CNY in 2023 to 4,536 million CNY in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts are set at 1.10 CNY for 2023, increasing to 1.62 CNY by 2026 [1][2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a vertically integrated supply chain, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [1][2]. - The report notes that the company’s production capacity for pulp and paper is expected to exceed 12 million tons by the end of 2023, with significant land resources allocated for pulp production in Laos [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.33 for 2022, projected to decrease to 10.45 by 2026, indicating an attractive valuation relative to expected earnings growth [2][3]. - The report also highlights a dividend yield increase from 1.3% in 2022 to 3.4% by 2026, suggesting a potential for enhanced shareholder returns [2][3].