Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with most companies facing a decline in earnings while a few high-quality firms are managing to improve their profitability [1][9] - The overall pre-loss range for 76 listed real estate companies is estimated to be between 35.05 billion and 47.84 billion yuan, with 61.8% of firms expected to report losses [1][9] - The report highlights a potential turning point in the industry, driven by policy support aimed at stabilizing the market and improving fundamentals [3][14] Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance Forecasts - As of July 18, 2025, 76 real estate companies have disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with 29 companies expecting profits and 47 anticipating losses [1][9] - Notable companies such as Poly Developments and China Overseas Development have reported significant profit declines exceeding 60% [1][9] - Some mid-sized firms like Deyue City and Chengjian Development have turned losses into profits, primarily due to high-margin project settlements [10][12] 2. Market Transaction Overview - New housing transactions for the week totaled 1.71 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.17% [2][17] - The second-hand housing market also saw a decrease, with transactions down 7.00% year-on-year [2][17] - The land market recorded a total transaction area of 1.373 million square meters, with a total transaction value of 20.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.68% [2][17] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading firms with product advantages [3][14] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, among others [3][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued downward trend in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with a significant decrease in new home sales in major cities [4][5]. - The central government emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards more robust policy support [4][32]. - The report suggests that while transaction volumes have stabilized, they have not yet entered a positive cycle, and further supportive measures are anticipated [4][32]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of July 12-18, 2025, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.591 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 20.1% [4][5]. - Year-to-date, new home sales are down 11% compared to the previous year, with first and second-tier cities experiencing a 17.3% year-on-year decline [6][32]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 1.031 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.4% [4][13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand home sales are down 11.4% year-on-year as of July [4][13]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 730,000 square meters of new homes launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.87, indicating ongoing inventory challenges [4][23]. - The average months of inventory for new homes in these cities has increased to 19.8 months [4][23]. Policy and News Tracking - The central government has called for a focus on urban renewal, with various local governments implementing "old-for-new" subsidy policies to stimulate the market [4][32]. - Recent statistics show a 11.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for the first half of 2025 [4][32]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies have reported their half-year performance, with notable declines in sales for major players like China Resources Land and Longfor Group [4][32]. - Companies such as Zhonghua Enterprises and Nanshan Holdings have reported significant profit increases, while others like Vanke and JinDi Group have faced substantial losses [4][32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a low allocation to real estate stocks while highlighting potential recovery opportunities in the third quarter [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with A-share real estate stocks down by 2.2% and Hong Kong real estate stocks down by 0.4% during the week of July 12-18 [2]. - The land market shows a rising premium rate, with an average premium rate of 11% for residential land in 300 cities, despite a significant year-on-year decline in transaction volume [2][41]. - Sales of new homes in 47 cities totaled 253 million square meters, reflecting a 6% decrease week-on-week and a 9% decrease year-on-year, indicating a seasonal low [3][46]. - The report notes that some real estate companies are beginning to show signs of profit recovery, with 27 out of 73 companies forecasting positive net profits for the first half of 2025 [5][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector ranked 30th among all sectors with a decline of 2.2%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked 12th with a decline of 0.4% [2][27]. - The property service index in Hong Kong also saw a decline of 0.4%, underperforming compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which increased by 3.4% [2][33]. Land Market - In the week of July 12-18, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 450 million square meters, down 20% week-on-week and 49% year-on-year, with a cumulative area of 19,610 million square meters for the year, reflecting a 5% year-on-year decrease [2][41]. Sales Data - New home sales in June showed a slight month-on-month price decline of 0.3% and a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, indicating a stabilizing market despite ongoing price pressures [3][4]. - The second-hand housing market also reflected similar trends, with a 1% increase week-on-week but a 3% decrease year-on-year in transaction volume [3]. Company Performance - Among the 73 real estate companies that released performance forecasts, 27 expect positive net profits, while 46 anticipate losses. Notably, 6 companies are expected to report profit increases, including prominent firms like Binhai Group and Poly Development [5][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the third quarter will be crucial for policy adjustments that could impact the real estate market's performance in the latter half of the year. It recommends investing in companies with strong product capabilities and those likely to benefit from favorable policies [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is experiencing pressure on sales year-on-year, with a total sales area of 45,851 million square meters in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.50% [4][8]. - In June 2025, the monthly sales area was 10,535.81 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 49.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.46% [4][8]. - The total sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.50% year-on-year, with June's sales amounting to 10,150.16 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 43.85% but a year-on-year decline of 10.79% [4][8]. - The average sales price for the first half of 2025 was 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 2.07% year-on-year [4][8]. Sales Summary - National Market: The sales area in the eastern region was 20,800 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year; the central region saw a decline of 1.2% with a sales area of 11,926 million square meters; the western region's sales area was 11,515 million square meters, down 2.5% [8]. - Regional Sales Amount: The eastern region's sales amount was 26,945 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year; the central region's sales amount was 7,988 billion yuan, also down 5.8%; the western region's sales amount was 8,163 billion yuan, down 4.30% [8]. Investment Summary - Investment in real estate development for the first half of 2025 totaled 46,658 billion yuan, down 11.20% year-on-year [14]. - In June 2025, the monthly development investment was 10,424 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.58% but a year-on-year decline of 12.90% [14]. - New construction area for the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, down 20.00% year-on-year, with June's new construction area at 7,180 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 34.27% [17]. - The completion area for the first half of 2025 was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.80% year-on-year, with June's completion area at 4,182 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 52.77% [19]. Funding Summary - Total funds available to real estate companies in the first half of 2025 were 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.20% year-on-year [23]. - Domestic loans accounted for 8,245 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.60% [23]. - Self-raised funds were 17,544 billion yuan, down 7.20%, while personal mortgage loans were 6,847 billion yuan, down 11.40% [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate sector's configuration value is highlighted under supportive policies, with a focus on leading companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group [41][40]. - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others, with a focus on quality developers and property management firms [41][39].

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecasts of real estate companies indicate a mixed outlook, with some companies turning losses into profits while others continue to struggle with significant losses. The focus on product quality and strategic market positioning is essential for profitability in the current market environment [1][3][8]. Group 1: Profitability Trends - As of July 17, 2025, among 25 listed real estate companies, 10 reported profits, with Poly Developments leading at a projected net profit of 27.35 billion yuan [1][3]. - Binhai Group is noted for its impressive profit growth, with an expected net profit increase of 40.01% to 69.98%, attributed to a higher volume of property deliveries [6][7]. - Poly Developments, despite being the highest in net profit, has seen a decline in profits over the past two years, with a projected decrease of 63.14% compared to the previous year [3][4]. Group 2: Losses and Challenges - 15 companies reported losses, with significant projected losses from companies like Vanke and China Communications Real Estate, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [2][4][5]. - Companies such as Jinke Real Estate and Financial Street are expected to reduce their losses, while others like Greenland Holdings and Bright Real Estate have shifted from profit to loss [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The real estate market is experiencing a recovery due to various policy measures aimed at stimulating demand, including lower down payment ratios and increased supply of quality land [8][9]. - Companies are encouraged to focus on high-quality residential products and adapt to changing consumer demands by offering customized housing solutions [9][10]. - Binhai Group's success is attributed to its strategic focus on the Zhejiang market, particularly in Hangzhou, where it has achieved significant sales growth [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecasts of real estate companies indicate a mixed recovery, with some companies turning losses into profits while others continue to face significant losses [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of July 17, 2025, 25 real estate companies listed on A-shares have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, with 10 companies, including Poly Developments and Binjiang Group, reporting profits [1][3]. - Poly Developments leads with a forecasted net profit of 27.35 billion yuan, although this represents a decline compared to previous years [3]. - Binjiang Group is noted for its impressive profit growth, with an expected net profit increase of 40.01% to 69.98%, attributed to a higher volume of property deliveries [5][6]. Group 2: Profitability Trends - Among the 25 companies, 15 are expected to report losses, with notable companies like Kinka Real Estate and Financial Street showing potential for reduced losses in the upcoming period [3][4]. - Companies such as China Communications Real Estate and Greenland Holdings have seen their losses increase, while others like Jin Di Group have reported significant losses due to reduced sales and asset impairment provisions [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a recovery driven by policy support, with significant increases in land sales and new housing transactions in cities like Beijing [7][8]. - The focus on high-quality product offerings and understanding consumer needs is emphasized as critical for companies to enhance their market competitiveness [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [5][14][25] Core Insights - The central urban work conference held from July 14 to 15, 2025, marks a transition in China's urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality over quantity in urban expansion [5][6] - The conference highlights the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy for high-quality urban development, aligning with previous action plans and signaling forthcoming supportive policies [5][6] - The report anticipates that urban development will increasingly focus on core cities, with a shift towards improving existing urban stock rather than expanding new areas [5][6] - Future urban development is expected to differentiate between cities, with a strong emphasis on creating modern, livable, and resilient urban environments [5][6] Summary by Sections Urban Development Transition - The report notes that urbanization is moving from a phase of rapid growth to one of stable development, with a focus on enhancing existing urban quality [5][7] - The emphasis is on integrated planning for population, industry, urban areas, and transportation to optimize urban spatial structures [5][9] Urban Renewal as a Strategy - Urban renewal is identified as a critical lever for achieving high-quality urban development, with expectations for specific policies to be implemented following the conference [5][8] - The report suggests that urban renewal efforts will be concentrated in first and second-tier cities, reflecting a strategic shift in urban planning [5][8] Future Urban Development Focus - The report outlines seven key tasks for urban work, including optimizing urban systems, fostering innovation, enhancing livability, promoting green cities, ensuring safety, cultivating cultural values, and developing smart cities [8][9][10] - The focus on creating "good housing" aligns with the broader goal of improving living conditions and urban quality, with potential support for quality real estate companies [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the real estate sector, including those with strong product capabilities and those positioned for valuation recovery, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [5][14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

卫星化学：上半年净利润预增31.32%-53.20% 7月15日晚，卫星化学（002648）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于上市公司股 东的净利润27亿元至31.5亿元，同比增长31.32%-53.20%；预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净利润28.52 亿元至33.02亿元，同比增长27.65%-47.79%。 资料显示，卫星化学成立于2005年8月，主营业务是(聚)丙烯、丙烯酸及酯、乙二醇、环氧乙烷、环氧 丙烷和聚乙烯等产品的生产和销售。 所属行业：基础化工–化学原料–其他化学原料 中国核建：累计新签合同871.49亿元 7月15日晚，中国核建（601611）发布公告称，截至2025年6月，公司累计实现新签合同871.49亿元，累 计实现营业收入531.84亿元。 资料显示，中国核建成立于2010年12月，主营业务是核电工程建设及工业与民用工程建设。 所属行业：建筑装饰–基础建设–基建市政工程 资料显示，怡球资源成立于2001年3月，主营业务是利用所回收的各种废旧铝资源，进行分选、加工、 熔炼等工序，生产出再生铝合金产品。 所属行业：有色金属–工业金属–铝 光库科技：上半年净利润预增60 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) but a smaller year-on-year (YoY) decline. The second-hand housing prices are experiencing a similar trend, with a YoY decline narrowing while the MoM decline is expanding [8][19][26]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In June 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with a total of 70 cities showing a MoM decline of -0.3%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase in decline compared to May [14][15]. - The YoY decline for new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities was -1.4%, -3.0%, and -4.6% respectively, leading to an overall YoY decline of 3.7% for 70 cities, which is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][15]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing prices in June 2025 saw a MoM decline of -0.6%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -0.7%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively. This represents an increase in the decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to May [19][21]. - The YoY decline for second-hand housing prices across 70 cities was -6.1%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -3.0%, -5.8%, and -6.7% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline for some tiers [19][22]. Regional Performance - In June 2025, Shanghai led the new housing market with a MoM increase of +0.4% and a YoY increase of +6.0%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan saw YoY increases in new housing prices [26][27]. - The second-hand housing prices in June across 35 cities showed a decline, with only Xining experiencing a MoM increase of +0.1%. The overall trend indicates a consistent decline in second-hand housing prices since early 2024 [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][26]. - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8][26].