Core Insights - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure, with all 70 cities experiencing a decline in second-hand housing prices for four consecutive months, indicating a "catch-up" phenomenon in first-tier cities [9][19] - The average year-on-year decline in new housing prices across 70 cities in 2025 was 3.8%, which is less than the 4.5% decline in 2024, marking three consecutive years of decline [4][12] - The average year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices was 6.3% in 2025, also less than the 7.4% decline in 2024, indicating a persistent downward trend for four years [4][12] Real Estate Market Performance - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, maintaining the same rate of decline as in November [4][12] - The total sales area in December was 93.99 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 17.3% [12][13] - The total investment in real estate development in December was 419.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, marking the largest single-month decline since 2000 [16][19] Housing Price Trends - In first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in December, with Shanghai showing a slight increase of 0.2%, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experienced varying declines [5][9] - The average year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities was 1.8% in 2025, a reduction of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][9] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month in December, with an average year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: stable companies with high sales and land reserve ratios in core cities, smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [10][20] - Companies such as China Resources Land, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou are highlighted for their strong market positions [10][20] - The report anticipates potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 2026, which could help stabilize the market [9][19]

每经记者｜包晶晶 每经编辑｜陈梦妤 2025年，滨江集团在行业深度调整中实现了销售额1017亿元，连续第六年站稳千亿元规模，并稳居全国 房企第十名、民营房企第一名（排名取自中指研究院销售榜单，下同）。 近日，滨江集团董事长戚金兴在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）专访时表示："这有可能 是现阶段最后一个'千亿'。没有永远好的行业，但一定有把握得好的企业。" 在戚金兴看来，房地产仍是一个涉及千家万户财富、年规模数万亿元的大行业，关键在于企业能否看得 清大势、摆得正位置、抓得住机会。 2025年，滨江集团以"匍匐前进，随时做好站起来的准备"为指引，在财务上实现了"存贷基本平衡"，有 息负债降至262亿元，融资成本低至3.0%；在土地上聚焦浙江，权益拿地金额仍位列全国第七、民营房 企第一。 "已经站起来了，做好了冲锋的准备。"戚金兴为滨江集团的2026年定了调，"滨江的房子，敢说三个一 样——与样板房一样、与合同一样、与政府备案一样。我们从没想过减配，如果减配，只有两种可能， 企业没了、团队没了。" "从业者没有悲观的权利" NBD：房地产市场仍处深度调整期，您如何看待当前及未来的行业角色与规模？ 戚金兴： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7] Core Insights - The approval of Vanke's debt extension plan alleviates short-term pressure on leading real estate companies, contributing to a stabilization of market expectations and creating favorable conditions for the industry to "stop falling and stabilize" [1][3] - The threefold guarantees in Vanke's proposal, including optimized repayment arrangements, fixed repayment schedules, and enhanced credit measures, are crucial for easing liquidity pressures and balancing creditor interests [2][3] - The ongoing debt reduction efforts among major real estate companies are essential for addressing industry pain points and are a focal point for risk prevention policies [4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate stocks characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Longfor Group [5] - It also highlights companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments, such as China Resources Land and New Town Holdings [5] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, like Sun Hung Kai Properties, are also recommended [5] - Companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages, such as Greentown Service and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [5] Key Company Insights - Longfor Group's commercial operations continue to grow, while development sales have decreased year-on-year, indicating a focus on quality land acquisition [13] - Greentown Service maintains its annual performance guidance and emphasizes cash dividends and share buybacks, showcasing its competitive advantages in service quality and brand premium [14] - Greentown China reported a 23% year-on-year decline in revenue, but its sales performance remains better than the industry average, with a focus on improving debt structure and cash flow [15] - Link REIT, as Hong Kong's first listed REIT, is expected to benefit from factors like RMB appreciation and population recovery, leading to valuation recovery [14] - China Overseas Development's revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, but its development scale and operational advantages remain strong, with plans for new project launches [15] - China Jinmao's revenue increased by 14% year-on-year, driven by improved project turnover and margin [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trading activity of Binhai Group, which saw a closing price increase of 1.39% to 10.94 yuan on January 22 [1] - The stock experienced two block trades totaling 536,000 shares with a transaction value of 5.205 million yuan [1] - Both block trades were executed at a price of 9.71 yuan per share, with a discount rate of -11.24%, indicating that the trades were below the market price [1] Group 2 - Over the past three months, Binhai Group has recorded a total of 103 block trades, amounting to 520 million yuan [1] - In the last five trading days, the stock has risen by 6.52%, although there has been a net outflow of 22.51 million yuan from the main capital [1]

Group 1 - On January 22, Binhai Group executed a block trade of 536,000 shares, with a transaction value of 5.205 million yuan, accounting for 1.62% of the total trading volume for the day [1] - The transaction price was 9.71 yuan, representing an 11.24% discount compared to the market closing price of 10.94 yuan [1] - The block trade involved two separate transactions, with volumes of 249,500 shares and 286,500 shares, both executed at the same price of 9.71 yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 showed signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the rate of decline in both supply and demand, although overall sales still decreased year-on-year [1][2] - Structural opportunities exist in core cities and certain second and third-tier cities, with some companies poised to strengthen their competitive advantages [1][50] - The report emphasizes the importance of housing prices as a key indicator for market stabilization, with a focus on observing signals of price stabilization [3][32] Summary by Sections New Homes - In 2025, the total sales area of new homes was 880 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, but the decline was less severe than in 2024 [11] - The number of new homes sold in 60 sample cities fell by 16% year-on-year, a reduction of 5 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The inventory of new homes in 80 cities decreased by 5% year-on-year, but the de-stocking period extended to approximately 32 months, the highest level since 2010 [37] Second-Hand Homes - The second-hand home market showed resilience, with total transactions in 2025 reaching approximately 2.39 million units, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8% [3][26] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 6.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less than in 2024 [32] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions continued to rise, reaching 66% in 16 key cities, up from 43% in 2021 [31] Cities and Companies - Certain cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, showed improvements in both sales volume and prices, indicating potential recovery [4][46] - Leading real estate companies like China Jinmao and China State Construction maintained or increased their market share despite overall market challenges [4][46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "three good" real estate stocks characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [5][50] - Companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5][50] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms are expected to benefit from market recovery, along with property management companies with stable cash flows and dividend advantages [5][50]

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -3.3% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices changed by -0.6% and +0.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.7% and -3.8%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 26th in performance[46] New Housing Market - New home sales increased by 0.6% week-on-week but decreased by 36.8% year-on-year during the period from January 10 to January 16, 2026[8] - In major cities, new home transaction areas changed as follows: Beijing +16.3%, Shanghai +1.9%, Guangzhou +18.8%, and Shenzhen -0.6%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 162.3 million square meters, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year[14] - Cumulative transactions from January 1 to January 16, 2026, totaled 331.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%[14] Inventory and Absorption - Cumulative new home inventory in 13 cities reached 77.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week change of -0.1% and a year-on-year change of -4.7%[21] - The absorption cycle for new homes in 13 cities is 23.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6 months[21] Land Market - Land transaction area from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 11.746 million square meters, down 21.9% week-on-week and down 49.7% year-on-year[38] - The average land price was 700 RMB/square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 44.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.1%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include: A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include: Property management: Greentown Service; Commercial management: China Resources Mixc Life; Leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of real estate regulatory policy relaxation, continued industry downturn, and persistent credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The real estate and building materials sector experienced a significant increase, primarily driven by market rumors regarding policy relaxation in Shanghai and expectations of more substantial policy measures to follow [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - A reassessment of the real estate and related sectors is deemed necessary at this juncture [2] - Key points highlighted in the commentary from "Qiushi" include: 1. Recognition of real estate as a significant financial asset, central to household wealth [3] 2. The need for comprehensive policy measures rather than incremental adjustments, indicating potential for new expectations regarding policy strength and breadth [3] - Statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in real estate investment by 17% year-on-year, new construction down by 20%, completions down by 18%, sales area down by 9%, and sales revenue down by 13% [3] - Despite the overall decline in data, the marginal negative impact on the building materials industry has noticeably weakened [3] - The fundamental investment logic in the building materials sector is centered on "supply-side improvement" preceding "demand-side recovery" [3] - Under the "anti-involution" policy direction, price coordination in industries like cement is beginning to show results, with profit levels continuing to recover [3] - The consumer building materials sector, including waterproofing and coatings, is entering the final phase of clearing out excess, with an improved competitive landscape and positive changes in gross margins and expense ratios for leading companies in specific segments [3] Recommendations - Recommended to focus on high-credit, high-quality real estate developers benefiting from policy rumors, such as China Merchants Shekou and Binjiang Group [4] - Suggested to pay attention to leading companies in the real estate supply chain that are expected to benefit from anticipated demand recovery, including Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

Core Insights - In 2025, Binhai Group achieved a sales revenue of 101.7 billion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive year of exceeding the 100 billion yuan threshold, ranking tenth among national real estate companies and first among private firms [1] - Chairman Qi Jinxing emphasized that while the real estate industry is undergoing significant adjustments, there will always be companies that can navigate the challenges effectively [4][5] - The company aims to transition from a focus on scale to one on quality, with a projected national housing sales figure of over 8 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating the sector's enduring importance in the economy [4] Financial Performance - By the end of 2025, Binhai Group reduced its interest-bearing debt to 26.2 billion yuan and achieved a financing cost of 3.0%, indicating a balanced financial position [1][7] - The company maintained a land acquisition amount of 19.2 billion yuan, ranking seventh nationally and first among private firms [7] Strategic Direction - The company has shifted its strategy from "crawling forward" to "standing up and preparing to charge," focusing on financial stability and readiness for future opportunities [7] - For 2026, Binhai Group set a sales target of approximately 80 billion yuan, aiming to maintain over 1% of the national market share despite longer construction cycles [11] Market Positioning - Binhai Group is committed to the "good house" concept, which emphasizes quality over price, defining it through five key attributes: good architecture, good landscape, good decoration, good facilities, and good service [9] - The company plans to focus its investments primarily in Hangzhou, with 60% of funds allocated there, while also targeting Shanghai for expansion, marking a strategic shift from previous approaches [12] Industry Perspective - The real estate sector is viewed as a critical component of the Chinese economy, with a persistent demand for improved living standards, suggesting that the industry will evolve rather than disappear [4][5] - Binhai Group's resilience and commitment to quality serve as a confidence symbol in the private sector, demonstrating that well-managed companies can thrive even in challenging market conditions [8]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On January 20, 2026, Binhai Group executed a block trade of 1.1749 million shares, amounting to 11.5027 million yuan, which represented 1.47% of the total trading volume for the day. The transaction price was 9.79 yuan, reflecting a discount of 10.92% compared to the market closing price of 10.99 yuan [1]. Group 1 - The block trade involved a total of 1.1749 million shares at a price of 9.79 yuan per share [1]. - The total transaction value for the block trade was 11.5027 million yuan [1]. - The transaction price was significantly lower than the market closing price, indicating a discount of 10.92% [1]. Group 2 - The trading volume for the block trade was broken down into multiple transactions, with individual volumes of 30.91 thousand shares, 46.27 thousand shares, and 40.31 thousand shares [2]. - The buyer for these transactions was identified as an institutional investor, specifically from Guotai Junan Securities [2]. - The selling brokerage was also Guotai Junan Securities, indicating a potential strategic move by the firm [2].