Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" for the agricultural sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1.01 percentage points during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, with a weekly increase of 2.55% [15][17] - The pig farming sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to the recovery of breeding profits and the ongoing rise in pig prices [4][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control for listed pig farming companies to navigate the pig cycle effectively [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index closed at 2,729.26, ranking 7th among 31 first-level industries in terms of weekly performance [15][17] - The fishery sector showed the best performance with a 5.13% increase, followed by breeding, agricultural product processing, feed, and planting sectors with respective increases of 3.12%, 2.96%, 2.30%, and 1.63% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - Pig prices continued to rise, with the national average price reaching 15.35 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 4.28% [2] - Self-breeding profits increased to 119.72 yuan/head, while external piglet breeding profits improved to -26.26 yuan/head [2] - In the poultry sector, chicken prices remained under pressure due to high inventory levels, with broiler chick prices dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a 20% decrease week-on-week [2] Agricultural Products - Prices for wheat, corn, and soybean meal showed a week-on-week increase, with wheat averaging 2,451.06 yuan/ton (up 0.19%), corn at 2,367.14 yuan/ton (up 0.61%), and soybean meal at 2,928.00 yuan/ton (up 0.76%) [3][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the pig farming sector, particularly companies with strong cost control such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - In the poultry sector, it recommends looking at integrated industry leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock for yellow feathered chickens [4] - For feed, it highlights industry leaders like Haida Group and regional leaders like Hefeng Stock as beneficiaries of the recovery in livestock demand [4] - The report also emphasizes the importance of food security, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][45]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in pig prices, reaching a new high since the Spring Festival, with a current average price of 15.37 CNY/kg, up 4.8% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality pig farming companies and the opportunities in the livestock support and pet food sectors, as the pet food industry remains vibrant with leading brands performing well [3][4]. - The report anticipates a notable improvement in overall profitability in the agricultural sector for the first half of 2025, particularly in pig farming, feed, pet food, and animal health sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 2.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index which increased by 1.5% [3][4]. - The top five gainers in individual stocks include Muyuan Foods (+4.9%), Shennong Group (+4.0%), and Xiaoming Co. (+4.8%) [3][4]. Pig Farming - Pig prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the average price reaching 15.37 CNY/kg, marking a significant increase from previous months [3][4]. - The report discusses the reasons behind the recent price surge, including a reduction in supply pressure and increased second fattening activities [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a decline in broiler chick prices, with the average price dropping to 1.14 CNY/chick, down 7.3% week-on-week [3][4]. - Broiler prices have also decreased, with the average price for live chickens at 3.37 CNY/kg, reflecting a weak market [3][4]. Animal Health - The report highlights a recovery in demand for vaccines, with a 15.8% year-on-year increase in vaccine issuance from January to May 2025 [3][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring new vaccine varieties and the potential growth in the pet health sector [3][4]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wen's Food Group, and Shennong Group for potential investment opportunities [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to combat "involutionary" competition and optimize pig production capacity, as highlighted in the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee [1][17] - The overall pig farming industry is currently profitable, with self-breeding and self-raising models showing increased profits [18][23] - The poultry sector is experiencing price declines, particularly in broiler chickens and chicken seedlings, indicating a potential for price recovery in the future [19][36] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The national average price for lean meat pigs is 14.82 CNY/kg, up 3.9% from last week, while the average wholesale price for pork is 20.58 CNY/kg, up 1.7% [21][22] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased to 90.05 kg, down 0.6% week-on-week [26] - The price of 15 kg piglets has decreased to 36.77 CNY/kg, down 1% from last week [29] Pig Farming - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is 119.72 CNY/head, an increase of 69.48 CNY/head from last week, while the profit for purchased piglets is -26.26 CNY/head, an increase of 105.45 CNY/head [23][24] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of recent policy changes on pig prices and inventory behavior [18] Poultry Farming - The average price for broiler chickens is 6.75 CNY/kg, down 3.7% from last week, and the average price for chicken products is 8.45 CNY/kg, down 1.2% [36] - The price for broiler chicks has dropped to 1.36 CNY/chick, down 20% from last week [31] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth opportunities for industry companies [19] Livestock Support - The report notes increased price volatility in agricultural products, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [19]

Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Overweight" due to expected overall profit improvement in the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of pig farming is expected to improve, with a stable pig price and a significant increase in average profit per head for self-bred pigs [4]. - Poultry farming shows a mixed outlook, with white chicken prices bottoming out and yellow chicken profitability declining, while egg-laying chicks continue to experience high demand [4]. - The pet food sector is projected to maintain high growth, with leading companies showing strong online sales growth, despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs [4]. - Animal health is recovering, with increased demand for vaccines and improved sales of veterinary preparations [4]. - The seed industry faces challenges with declining corn prices and increased competition, leading to pressure on the performance of leading seed companies [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in H1 2025 is expected to be 14.80 CNY/kg, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, while the average profit for self-bred pigs is projected at 69.04 CNY/head, recovering from a loss of 24.82 CNY/head in H1 2024 [4]. Poultry Farming - White chicken prices are under pressure due to oversupply, with the average price for commodity broiler chicks at 2.4 CNY/bird, down 21% year-on-year. Yellow chicken prices are also declining, with the average price for Qingjiao chicken at 8.9 CNY/kg, down 19% year-on-year [4]. Pet Food - The domestic pet food market is experiencing a growth rate of 17% in online GMV for the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% in the same period of 2024. Leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. show growth rates of 51% and 26%, respectively [4]. Animal Health - The demand for veterinary vaccines has increased, with a 15.8% year-on-year rise in vaccine approvals in the first five months of 2025. Prices for veterinary preparations like Tylosin and Tiamulin have increased by 39.8% and 9.3%, respectively [4]. Seed Industry - The corn seed market is under pressure due to falling corn prices and high competition, leading to a decline in seed prices and performance expectations for leading seed companies [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig price is expected to maintain a central level above 15 yuan/kg in 2025 due to limited supply growth and cautious breeding practices [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a supply gap, with a notable increase in piglet losses due to a virus mutation, which is expected to drive up pig prices in Q3 2025 [1] - Recent government policies aim to regulate the pig industry, including measures to curb low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The pig price is under significant downward pressure in H2 2025, but multiple government policies are expected to support price increases and alleviate CPI pressure [2] - The overall investment logic in the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive outlook for investment [2] - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index reflects the performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and breeding, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 65.27% of the index [2]

Core Insights - The transformation of Shili Pu Village from a weak collective economy to a prosperous village is attributed to the collaboration between Agricultural Bank of China Fujian Branch and Shennong Group, resulting in annual village financial income exceeding 800,000 yuan and projected income of nearly 3 million yuan for 2024 [1][3] Group 1: Financial Support and Collaboration - Agricultural Bank of China Fujian Branch has provided comprehensive financial support to Shennong Group, including a total credit limit of 4.08 billion yuan to facilitate the development of the chicken industry chain [2][5] - The bank has established a dedicated financial team to analyze and address financing challenges within the entire industry chain of Shennong Group, focusing on supporting its green enterprise goals [1][2] Group 2: Rural Revitalization Initiatives - The collaboration has led to the establishment of various enterprises in 109 administrative villages, enhancing income for towns, villages, and residents through initiatives like "village-enterprise co-construction" [3][5] - Shili Pu Village has benefited from the creation of logistics companies and a rural revitalization company, resulting in over 500 villagers transitioning from farming to industrial work [3][4] Group 3: Innovative Projects and Employment - A new project involving the production of deboned chicken feet has been initiated, with 80 custom automatic deboning machines expected to generate 16 tons of product daily, providing nearly 5 million yuan in annual income for the village and creating 240 jobs [5][6] - The partnership model of "government + enterprise + finance" has been instrumental in activating the local economy and fostering a win-win situation for all stakeholders involved [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][61]. Core Views - The report highlights that the pig price may experience a turning point due to seasonal factors and policy changes, suggesting a bottoming out phase for the sector [2][12]. - The poultry sector is seeing price declines, but there are signs of marginal improvements in the cycle [3][24]. - The animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery, and there are investment opportunities in the pet medical industry [4][35]. - The planting sector is witnessing a week-on-week rebound in grain prices [5][43]. - The feed sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with a general downward trend [6][46]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength [7][51]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry - The average pig price is currently fluctuating between 14-15 CNY/kg, with a notable increase in average weights compared to previous years [11][12]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with low costs and strong financial health, such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [12][61]. Poultry Industry - The poultry prices are declining, with the white feather chicken price at 3.48 CNY/jin, showing a slight decrease [24][25]. - The report recommends companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Livestock, while suggesting to pay attention to He Feng and Minhe Livestock [25][61]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to recover, supported by the profitability of the pig farming industry [35][36]. - The pet medical market is projected to grow, with a market size of approximately 840 billion CNY, representing 28% of the pet industry [4][35]. Planting Sector - Grain prices are showing a week-on-week increase, with corn priced at 2353 CNY/ton and wheat at 2446 CNY/ton [43][44]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in genetically modified seeds, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-tech [43][61]. Feed Sector - Feed prices are experiencing a downward trend, with pig feed at 3.36 CNY/kg [46][47]. - The report recommends Hai Da Group and suggests paying attention to He Feng [47][61]. Pet Industry - The pet market is expected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [51][52]. - The report recommends companies in the pet food sector like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and in the pet medical sector, it recommends Ruipu Biological [55][61].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing capacity regulation policies in the pig industry, recommending a "platform + ecosystem" model represented by Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [3] - The report highlights the need to shift from a cyclical perspective to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [6][17] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the pig farming sector, particularly in leading companies with cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - In May, the national breeding sow inventory reached 40.42 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a stable capacity within the green regulatory range [6][16] - The average pig price rose to 14.66 CNY/kg, with the complete cost for leading enterprises dropping to around 12 CNY/kg, suggesting a favorable profit outlook [5][16] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong financial performance, such as Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs [6][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent chicken seedlings remains high, with the average price at 47.93 CNY, reflecting a 5.25% increase [7][18] - The report notes a persistent contradiction between high production capacity and weak consumption in the white feather chicken industry, leading to potential market share gains for integrated enterprises [7][18] - Key investment targets include leading companies in imported breeding stock and fully integrated enterprises like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [7][18] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a recovery in aquaculture profitability due to rising fish prices and falling feed prices, with expectations for a rebound in demand for aquaculture feed in 2025 [8][19] - The leading companies are expected to improve their market share and cash flow as the capital expansion phase ends [8][19][21] 4. Pet Industry - The report indicates strong performance from domestic pet brands during the Tmall 618 sales event, with brands like Guibao and Zhongchong showing significant growth [11][22] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a focus on brands that demonstrate continuous high growth and strong overseas performance [11][22] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes a significant reduction in grain imports, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in the first five months of 2025, which may support price recovery [12][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply and the need for price increases to enhance farmers' income [12][29] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report states that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3922 points, reflecting a 1.95% increase, while the agriculture index rose by 0.80% [30][31] - The report highlights the overall stability in the pig market, with average prices showing a slight decline due to seasonal consumption effects [52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [13] Core Views - The company is a rare fully integrated player in the white feather broiler industry, with a closed-loop breeding system that enhances cost competitiveness and ensures strong relative profitability in chicken products [4][21] - The company is expected to achieve over 20% revenue growth in both its deep processing and parent breeding businesses in 2024, contributing to profit growth [4][21] - The company has a clear long-term development outlook, with a focus on enhancing the value per bird through upstream and downstream integration [4][21] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has developed into Asia's largest fully integrated white feather chicken enterprise, covering feed processing, breeding, broiler farming, slaughtering, and processing [22] - By the end of 2024, the company will have a breeding capacity exceeding 700 million birds, with a market share of approximately 8% in the national broiler breeding and slaughtering sector [22][24] Breeding Segment - The company has a significant advantage in the integrated breeding system, achieving a stable premium for chicken products due to traceability and controlled supply [10][65] - The average premium of the company's chicken products over the industry is expected to be 470 RMB/ton from 2021 to 2024, with a projected premium of 489 RMB/ton in 2024 [10][65] - The company has self-researched breeding sources that mitigate risks from overseas price fluctuations, enhancing long-term profitability [10][65] Deep Processing Segment - The deep processing business has shown robust growth, with external sales revenue increasing from 1.5 billion RMB in 2016 to 8.2 billion RMB in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 24% [11] - The company has established strong relationships with key clients like KFC and McDonald's, which are expected to grow by about 15% in store numbers in 2024 [11][11] - The C-end revenue is also expected to exceed 2 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 20% over the past three years [11] Financial Performance - The company has maintained a stable growth trajectory in both gross and net profits since 2021, despite intense competition in the white feather chicken industry [55] - The food processing segment's external sales revenue is projected to grow from 5.6 billion RMB in 2021 to 8.3 billion RMB in 2024, with a steady increase in the proportion of food processing revenue [54][55]