证券研究报告 2025.12.14 农业周报：宠食新消费品牌发力大促 王思洋 分析员 陈泰屹 分析员 龙友琪 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523070004 SFC CE Ref：BTG198 siyang5.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020011 taiyi.chen@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524010004 youqi.long@cicc.com.cn 行业动态 行业近况 本周（12.8-12.12）农林牧渔涨幅+0.3%，跑赢大盘 0.4ppt。涨 幅前三个股为正邦/生物股份/罗牛山，分别+19%/+17%/+14%。 评论 畜禽产业链：11 月样本上市猪企出栏环比下降。1）生猪养殖： 商品猪/二元母猪/7kg仔猪价格周环比+2.1%/-0.5%/+1.2%；11 月样本上市猪企出栏量环比减少 5.5%；涌益 17 省育肥栏舍利用 率环比-6.5ppt；本周商品猪出栏均重周环比-0.2%，关注北方动 物疫病情况；德康"百村百万"家庭农场基地投运。2）禽养 殖：鸡苗/毛鸡/鸡产品价格周环比+1.4%/+0.8%/+0.6%；哈 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月13日 2025年12月14日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（186） 优于大市 粮价有望筑底企稳，看好肉奶周期共振反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 12 日生猪价格 11.34 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.07%；7kg 仔猪价格约 219.52 元/头，周环比+1.21%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 12 日，鸡苗价格 3.38 元/ 羽，周环比+2.11%；毛鸡价格 7.24 元/公斤，周环比+2.26%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 11 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 4.6/5.6/8.2 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +2.22%/+7.69%/+0.00%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 12 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.09 元/斤，周环比+3.00%，同比+0.98%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国 内育肥公牛出栏价为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector, particularly focusing on livestock and feed companies [7]. Core Insights - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [15][18]. - For soybeans, the report suggests a recovery in U.S. imports, which is likely to support price recovery [33][35]. - The beef market is projected to see a price increase in 2026, driven by reduced production and strong domestic demand [3][6]. - The dairy sector is expected to experience a price reversal due to a combination of reduced supply and increased demand for both meat and milk [4][6]. - The pork market is anticipated to face a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half [6][7]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report predicts a reduction in global corn production by 3.27 million tons, leading to a decrease in global ending stocks and a tightening supply-demand ratio [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with expectations for a gradual recovery supported by low trader inventories [18][19]. Soybeans - The global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly, with a projected rise in U.S. imports and a positive outlook for domestic soybean meal prices [33][35]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S.-China trade relations and South American weather conditions for future price movements [38]. Wheat - The global wheat supply remains ample, with an increase in production forecasts from major exporting countries, leading to a slight rise in the global ending stocks ratio [2][45]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize, influenced by the overall supply situation and potential government storage interventions [48][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production, with prices expected to rise due to strong domestic demand and reduced imports [3][6]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices likely to trend upwards [3][6]. Dairy - The report indicates a potential reversal in the dairy market, driven by reduced cow inventories and a tightening supply-demand balance [4][6]. - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise as a result of these factors [4][6]. Pork - The U.S. pork market is projected to see a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half of the year [6][7]. - Domestic breeding sow inventories are stabilizing, which may help support industry profitability [6][7]. Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased production and consumption anticipated as avian influenza impacts diminish [6][7]. - Domestic chicken supply is projected to stabilize, with a focus on internal demand recovery [6][7].

农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/11/28-2025/12/11） 行 业 生猪价格有所回升 2025 年 12 月 12 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 证 | | | 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业跑输沪深300指数。2025年11月28日—2025年12月11日， SW农林牧渔行业下跌0.92%，跑输同期沪深300指数约1.73个百分点；细分 板块中，仅动物保健和种植业录得正收益，分别上涨1.96%和1.18%；农产 品加工、饲料、养殖业和渔业均录得负收益，分别下跌1.01%、1.5%、3.03% 和3.76%。估值方面，截至2025年12月11日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB （整体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.75倍，近两周估值有所回落。目 前行业估 ...

畜牧ETF紧密跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，中证畜牧养殖指数选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等 业务的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映畜牧养殖相关上市公司的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份(002714)、 温氏股份(300498)、海大集团(002311)、新希望(000876)、梅花生物(600873)、大北农(002385)、生物股 份(600201)、圣农发展(002299)、罗牛山(000735)、天康生物(002100)，前十大权重股合计占比65.6%。 截至2025年12月12日 09:45，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)上涨0.44%，成分股罗牛山(000735)上涨 6.21%，生物股份(600201)上涨2.99%，梅花生物(600873)上涨2.21%，立华股份(300761)上涨1.06%，益 生股份(002458)上涨0.73%。畜牧ETF(159867)上涨0.79%，最新价报0.64元。 消息面上，华储网发布通知称，将于2025年12月18日开展中央储备冻猪肉轮换收储竞价交易，本次收储 挂牌竞价交易3100吨 ...

销量方面，11月份家禽饲养加工板块鸡肉销售数量为13.73万吨，较去年同期增长10.35%，较上月环比 增长3.88%；深加工肉制品板块产品销售数量为5.24万吨，较去年同期增长50.58%，较上月环比增长 6.34%。 二、说明 11月份以来，面对因季节性因素带来的保温费用等成本上升，公司通过精细化运营与动态成本管控，有 效实现了整体成本的良好控制。在此背景下，公司11月的单吨盈利水平依然保持稳定，2025年1-11月综 合造肉成本同比实现下降，整体盈利基础得到进一步夯实。 证券代码：002299 证券简称：圣农发展 公告编号：2025-076 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏。 一、2025年11月份销售情况 福建圣农发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025年11月实现销售收入18.10亿元，较去年同期增长 15.77%，较上月环比增长2.89%。其中，家禽饲养加工板块鸡肉销售收入为12.69亿元，较去年同期增长 4.64%，较上月环比增长1.36%；深加工肉制品板块销售收入为9.77亿元，较去年同期增长49.26%，较上 月环比增长5.66 ...

今日聚焦 1、贵州茅台：2025年中期分红300亿元 股权登记日为12月18日 贵州茅台(600519.SH)公告称，公司2025年中期利润分配方案已获股东大会通过，将以总股本12.52亿股 为基数，每股派发23.957元现金红利（含税），共计派发300.01亿元（含税）。股权登记日为2025年12 月18日，除权（息）日和现金红利发放日均为2025年12月19日。部分股东的红利将由公司自行发放。扣 税说明根据不同股东类型，分别按10%或20%税率代扣代缴所得税。 2、宁德时代：拟注册发行不超过100亿元债券 宁德时代(300750.SZ)12月10日公告，公司拟注册发行不超过100亿元（含100亿元）的债券，本次发行 的债券的期限不超过5年，主要用于项目建设、补充营运资金、偿还有息负债等。 3、3连板永辉超市：公司股票存在市场情绪过热情形及较高的炒作风险 3连板永辉超市(601933.SH)12月10日披露股票交易风险提示公告，经公司自查，截至目前，公司目前生 产经营活动正常，门店调改稳步有序进行中，内外部经营环境未发生重大变化，不存在应披露而未披露 的重大事项。鉴于近期公司股票交易价格涨幅较大，存在市场情 ...

Group 1 - Jicheng Electronics won a total of 15 bids from the State Grid Corporation, with a total bid amount of approximately 215 million yuan, accounting for 8.27% of the company's projected revenue for 2024 [2] - Jianmin Group's chemical generic drug, Ambrutoro Oral Solution, has been approved for market launch by the National Medical Products Administration, aimed at treating cough and wheezing caused by chronic bronchitis and emphysema [3] - Taiji Industry's subsidiary plans to transfer accounts receivable not exceeding 85 million USD to optimize cash flow, with an expected service fee of approximately 285,000 USD [4] Group 2 - Nanjing Pharmaceutical's subsidiary plans to invest 398 million yuan in a modern pharmaceutical logistics expansion project, with a construction period of approximately 35 months [5] - Ruili Kemi received a development notification from a well-known domestic flying car company to supply core components [6] - Ding Tong Technology announced that several executives plan to reduce their holdings by a total of no more than 45,300 shares, representing about 0.032% of the total share capital [7][8] Group 3 - Ninghu Expressway's subsidiary plans to invest no more than 9.033 billion yuan in the construction of the Nanyang Yangtze River Bridge South Connection Project [10] - Wuliangye announced a mid-term profit distribution plan for 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 25.78 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 10 billion yuan [12] - Beixin Road and Bridge's subsidiary won a bid for a project worth 180 million yuan [14] Group 4 - Minhe Livestock reported a 7.75% month-on-month increase in sales revenue from commodity chick sales in November [15] - Xuelong Group plans to invest 100 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary for vertical integration in the aluminum and magnesium technology sector [16] - Shengnong Development reported a 15.77% year-on-year increase in sales revenue in November, with significant growth in both poultry and processed meat products [17] Group 5 - Xingyu Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase shares worth 200 million to 300 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans [18] - Quan Chai Power intends to use 50 million yuan of idle funds to purchase structured deposit products [19] - Shibei High-tech appointed Zhao Junhong as the new deputy general manager [20] Group 6 - Fuan Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for injectable isavuconazole, expanding its anti-infection product line [21] - Xiaoming Co. reported a 49.73% year-on-year decline in chicken product sales revenue in November [22] - Baiao Chemical adjusted its share repurchase price ceiling to no more than 48.95 yuan per share [23] Group 7 - Hefei China reported a 26.02% year-on-year decline in consolidated revenue for the first 11 months [24] - Laimei Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received medical device registration certificates for two endoscope products [25][26] - Xiantan Co. reported an 11.63% year-on-year increase in chicken product sales revenue in November [27] Group 8 - Qilin Security received government subsidies totaling 5.4014 million yuan [28] - Blue Sky Gas's controlling shareholder's 30.9134 million shares were judicially frozen, accounting for 4.33% of the total share capital [29] - Tieke Railway signed a contract for high-speed railway fasteners worth 654 million yuan, accounting for 41.08% of the company's projected revenue for 2024 [30] Group 9 - David Medical's electric surgical table received a medical device registration certificate [31] - Zhendong Pharmaceutical's affiliate's core product new drug application was accepted by the CDE [32] - Shanghai Pharmaceutical's apple acid sitagliptin tablet application for market approval was granted by the National Medical Products Administration [33] Group 10 - Nanjiao Food reported a 1.14% year-on-year increase in consolidated revenue for November [34]

人民财讯12月10日电，圣农发展（002299）12月10日公告，公司2025年11月实现销售收入18.10亿元， 较去年同期增长15.77%，较上月环比增长2.89%。销量方面，11月份家禽饲养加工板块鸡肉销售数量为 13.73万吨，较去年同期增长10.35%，较上月环比增长3.88%；深加工肉制品板块产品销售数量为5.24万 吨，较去年同期增长50.58%，较上月环比增长6.34%。 ...

一、2025 年 11 月份销售情况 福建圣农发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年 11 月实现销售收 入 18.10 亿元，较去年同期增长 15.77%，较上月环比增长 2.89%。其中，家禽饲 养加工板块鸡肉销售收入为 12.69 亿元，较去年同期增长 4.64%，较上月环比增 长 1.36%；深加工肉制品板块销售收入为 9.77 亿元，较去年同期增长 49.26%， 较上月环比增长 5.66%。 销量方面，11 月份家禽饲养加工板块鸡肉销售数量为 13.73 万吨，较去年 同期增长 10.35%，较上月环比增长 3.88%；深加工肉制品板块产品销售数量为 5.24 万吨，较去年同期增长 50.58%，较上月环比增长 6.34%。 二、说明 证券代码：002299 证券简称：圣农发展 公告编号：2025-076 福建圣农发展股份有限公司 2025 年 11 月份销售情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 董 事 会 二〇二五年十二月十一日 三、特别提示 1、家禽饲养加工板块鸡肉销售收入及销售数量为抵消前数据。 2、上述财务数据均 ...