Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes agricultural modernization, focusing on stabilizing grain production, promoting healthy development in animal husbandry, and enhancing agricultural technology innovation [3][4][5] - The grain production target has been raised to approximately 1.4 trillion jin, with initiatives to improve grain quality and variety [5][6] - The document acknowledges the success of previous measures in the livestock sector and introduces new strategies to boost dairy product consumption [8][9] - Agricultural technology innovation is highlighted, with a focus on the implementation of breeding actions and the integration of AI in agriculture [15][21] Summary by Sections Grain Sector - The document sets a grain production target of stabilizing at around 1.4 trillion jin and emphasizes quality improvement and variety enhancement [5][7] - It includes measures to protect farmers' interests, such as determining minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat [5][7] - The document also stresses the importance of developing a futures market for agricultural products [5][7] Livestock Sector - The document reinforces the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and acknowledges the success of previous measures in stabilizing the beef and dairy industries [8][9][11] - It promotes measures to enhance dairy product consumption and supports the development of forage crops [9][11] Agricultural Technology - The document continues to emphasize the implementation of breeding actions and the promotion of breakthrough varieties [15][16][17] - It encourages the development of high-end intelligent agricultural machinery and the integration of AI, drones, and IoT into agricultural practices [21][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Livestock: YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture [27] - Swine: HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, MuYuan Co., Wen's Co., TianKang Bio, and ShenNong Group [27] - Pet Industry: GuaiBao Pet [27] - Feed: HaiDa Group [27] - Poultry: LiHua Co., YiSheng Co., and ShengNong Development [27] - Animal Health: HuiSheng Bio [27] - Planting Chain: Hainan Rubber, QuanYin High-Tech, Guotou Fengle, and LongPing High-Tech [27]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal benefiting Hong Kong-listed dairy farming companies [1][12] - The investment strategy highlights a recommended monthly portfolio including leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pig farming, and pet food [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production and a historical low in milk prices [14][29] - Key recommendations include Yuran Dairy and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][17] Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with a notable increase in piglet prices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for leading companies [20][21] - Recommended companies in this sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Huazhong Holdings, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and dividend returns [3][15] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing a slight increase in supply, with expectations of demand recovery supporting price stability, particularly for broiler chickens [22][24] - Leading companies such as Lihua Agricultural and Shengnong Development are highlighted for their competitive advantages in cost management and market positioning [18][19] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands [16][18] - Companies like Guibao Pet Food are recommended for their strong growth potential in this segment [3][16] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to deepen its industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in pork, chicken, and feed prices, with implications for overall market dynamics [2][21] - The analysis indicates that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices are stabilizing, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance in the medium term [20][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pig price is weakening, and supply pressure remains after the festival, with the current industry breeding profit turning positive and the sentiment for replenishment continuing to recover [2][12] - The industry policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation, which may lead to a better performance of growth stocks in the future [3][12] - The high-quality development of the industry is imperative, with cost-leading and farmer-linked enterprises likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector has seen a slight increase of 0.2%, gradually digesting concerns about slow capacity reduction [2][12] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased from high levels, with prices adjusting weakly to 12.31 CNY/kg [2][12] - The price of 7 kg piglets has risen to 367 CNY, indicating a weak expectation for capacity reduction [2][12] - The policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation is expected to positively influence pig prices and profitability in 2026 [3][12] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.7 CNY/kg, down 3.4% week-on-week [4][13] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to a reduction in imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [4][13] - Integrated enterprises and contract farming are expected to expand market share in 2026 [4][14] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have rebounded, with significant year-on-year increases for some species [5][15] - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [6][15][16] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with ongoing overseas market expansion [6][16] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is facing pressure with concerns over Q4 2025 performance, but there are signs of recovery in domestic sales [7][17] - Companies like Zhongchong and Peidi are recommended for their strong domestic sales growth potential [7][17] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have increased slightly, supported by weather disturbances and procurement demand [8][18] - Corn prices have shown fluctuations, with a slight decrease due to reduced channel stocking [8][18] - The price of eggs has decreased, indicating a potential peak in trade inventory [8][18]

Core Insights - The chicken industry is experiencing significant performance divergence, with 10 out of 17 companies forecasting profit declines, 3 expecting profit growth, and 3 shifting from profit to loss [2][11]. Performance Summary - **Companies with Expected Profit Decline**: - Wen's Foodstuffs: Expected net profit of 20-22 billion yuan, down 40.73%-46.12% [3][12] - Lihua Food: Expected net profit of 5.5-6 billion yuan, down 60.55%-63.84% [3] - Yisheng Livestock: Expected net profit of 1.5-1.9 billion yuan, down 70.23%-62.29% [3] - Jinke Smart Agriculture: Expected net profit of 1.25-1.65 billion yuan, down 76.88%-82.49% [3] - Other companies also reported declines, including Hunan Jiajia and Juxing Agriculture [4]. - **Companies with Expected Profit Growth**: - Shennong Development: Expected net profit of 13.7-14.3 billion yuan, up 89.16%-97.44% [5][15] - Chunxue Food: Expected net profit of 3.6-4.3 billion yuan, up 340.90%-426.63% [5][15] - Xiaoming Co.: Expected net profit of 0.71-0.92 billion yuan, up 58.43%-105.30% [3]. - **Companies Shifting from Profit to Loss**: - Huayun Agriculture: Expected loss of 0.45-0.65 billion yuan [4] - Tianma Technology: Expected loss of 1.4-1.8 billion yuan [4] - New Hope: Expected loss of 15-18 billion yuan, down 480.07%-416.72% [6][15]. Industry Trends - The chicken industry is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, with significant price fluctuations impacting profitability [7][16]. - Companies like Chunxue Food are achieving growth through market expansion and product diversification, contrasting with those relying on traditional farming methods [8][16]. - Cost control is becoming a critical factor for profitability, as seen in Wen's Foodstuffs maintaining a leading position despite a decline in growth [8][16]. Future Outlook - The white feather chicken market is experiencing a price increase, with expectations for sustained high demand in 2026 [18]. - The price of parent breeding chickens is rising, indicating a positive outlook for the chicken industry in 2026, contingent on pork price recovery [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that major meat protein prices (pork, chicken, beef, eggs, and aquatic products) are expected to bottom out and rise in 2026. The efficiency differences among pig farming enterprises will be crucial for profitability this year. The chicken industry, after a prolonged downturn, is anticipated to recover gradually due to improving demand. The beef and raw milk sectors are expected to reach a supply-demand balance after ongoing capacity reductions, signaling a cyclical upturn [2][3]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned for growth, including Muyuan Foods, Dekang Animal Husbandry, Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, and others [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 1.8%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.1%. The top five gainers included Nongfa Seed Industry (30.2%), Shennong Technology (26.1%), and others, while the top five losers included Fujian Jinsen (-12.6%) and others [2][3]. Pig Farming - The report notes that the overall pig slaughter pace has accelerated as the pre-holiday window approaches, leading to a significant drop in pig prices. The average price for external three yuan pigs was 12.24 yuan/kg, down 5.3% week-on-week. The seasonal price rebound that began in mid-December has likely concluded, with expectations of further price pressure [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The report indicates that the price of white feather chicken and chicken products has shown strong support, with the average sales price for white feather chicken at 3.76 yuan/kg, up 2.7% week-on-week. The demand side is expected to improve, potentially pushing product prices out of the cyclical bottom [2][3]. Cattle Farming - The report highlights a slight increase in beef and calf prices, with the average price for fattening bulls at 25.68 yuan/kg, up 0.1% week-on-week. The raw milk price remains stable at 3.04 yuan/kg, supported by seasonal demand [2][3]. Pet Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring online sales of pet food in 2025, noting that major online platforms reported a sales figure of 21.1 billion yuan in December 2025, a decrease of 11% year-on-year. However, the overall annual sales for 2025 reached 307.1 billion yuan, an increase of 10% [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The aquaculture sector experienced a rise of 1.85% on January 29, with Fu Cheng Co., Ltd. leading the gains, while the overall market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.3% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The aquaculture sector's performance was highlighted by Fu Cheng Co., Ltd. closing at 6.46, up by 5.38% with a trading volume of 347,300 shares and a transaction value of 223 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. at 46.33, up by 2.64%, and Wen's Foodstuffs Group at 15.55, up by 1.97% [1] - The overall trading volume for the aquaculture sector was significant, with Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. alone accounting for a transaction value of 2.824 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 253 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 82.155 million yuan [2] - Main funds showed a positive net inflow in companies like Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. with 24.6 million yuan and Wen's Foodstuffs Group with 95.752 million yuan [3] - Conversely, retail investors showed significant outflows in companies such as Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. with 132 million yuan and Fu Cheng Co., Ltd. with 6.78 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector increased by 0.38% on January 28, with Xiaoming Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Xiaoming Co. saw a closing price of 21.63, with a rise of 10.41%, and a trading volume of 224,700 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 468 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The main funds in the aquaculture sector had a net inflow of 163 million yuan, while retail funds had a net inflow of 149 million yuan [2] - The stock "Wens Foodstuffs" had a significant trading volume of 713,100 shares, with a transaction value of 1.089 billion yuan, but experienced a slight decline of 0.52% [2] - The stock "Xiaoming Co." had a net inflow of 20.89 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds showed a net outflow of 7.58 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The poultry industry is expected to see an improvement in the supply chain in 2026, driven by a rebound in prices and a gradual recovery in profitability for the breeding sector [5][91] - The integration trend within the industry is becoming more pronounced, with leading companies benefiting from their downstream channel advantages and collaborative efforts across the supply chain [5][24] - The domestic poultry sector is experiencing a shift towards self-breeding and the replacement of imported breeds due to disruptions caused by avian influenza outbreaks abroad [5][39] Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Poultry Industry Maintains Marginal Profitability, Clear Integration Trend - The poultry industry maintained marginal profitability in 2025, with upstream breeding segments performing better than downstream farming and processing sectors [5][14] - The average price of parent stock chicks in 2025 was 44.75 CNY/set, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, while the average price of commercial chicks was 2.51 CNY each, down 13% year-on-year [5][17] - The total slaughter volume of the top 10 companies reached 4.274 billion birds, accounting for 45.99% of the market, indicating a trend towards consolidation [5][24] 2. Avian Influenza Disrupts Imports, Accelerates Domestic Breed Replacement - In 2025, the cumulative update of grandparent stock chickens was 1.574 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with domestic breeds accounting for approximately 60% of the updates [5][39] - The outbreak of avian influenza in France in December 2025 led to a halt in overseas imports, increasing the uncertainty of supply from abroad [5][46] - Domestic breeds are showing improved performance, with the replacement rate of domestic breeds rising to 34% in 2025 [5][57] 3. 2026 Supply Chain Expected to Improve, Capacity Elasticity Remains a Concern - The inventory of grandparent stock chickens is expected to decline in early 2026, with estimates showing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 3.3% and 12% in March and April, respectively [5][69] - The overall supply of the poultry industry is anticipated to gradually improve in 2026, with profitability expected to return to the breeding sector [5][87] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring parent stock chick sales as a key indicator of supply trends [5][76] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng, Minhe, Xiantan, and Hefeng, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing integration and recovery in the poultry industry [5][91]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that after a rise, the price of broiler chickens has slightly decreased, while the price of chick seedlings has remained high [2][9] - The report highlights that the supply of broiler chickens is currently tight due to external weather factors and diseases affecting survival rates, which initially supported price increases [9][12] - The report notes that the profitability of broiler farming has improved significantly, with a loss of 0.26 yuan per bird in December, a substantial increase in profitability compared to previous months [40][42] - The report suggests that the suspension of imports from France due to avian influenza outbreaks may create a supply gap, potentially improving industry conditions [45] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In December, the average price of broiler chickens was 3.68 yuan per jin, showing a trend of rising and then falling prices [9] - The average price of chick seedlings for white feather broilers was 3.56 yuan per bird, with prices fluctuating due to market demand and supply conditions [9][12] Production Capacity - As of December 2025, the average stock of parent broiler chickens was 21.3 million sets, down 2.7% year-on-year, while the average stock of backup parent chickens was 15.73 million sets, down 5.1% year-on-year [33][41] - The average stock of grandparent broiler chickens was 1.3586 million sets, up 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable supply in the upstream breeding segment [32][35] Sales Performance - In December, the sales volume of broiler meat from Shengnong Development reached 147,600 tons, an increase of 14.24% year-on-year, while the sales volume of processed chicken products increased by 51.38% [21][27] - The report also highlights that the sales volume of chick seedlings for the year reached 4.481 billion birds, a 2% increase year-on-year [21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares, as they are expected to benefit from the potential supply gap and ongoing improvements in domestic breeding efficiency [45]