Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive trend in pig prices driven by the consumption peak season, with the average price of lean pigs reaching 12.49 CNY/kg, a 2.6% increase month-on-month [1] - The stock performance of the livestock breeding index shows mixed results, with leading stocks like Ruisheng Biological rising by 9.91% and the Livestock ETF priced at 0.68 CNY [1] - The overall pig farming sector is experiencing a "tug-of-war" state, where companies with cost advantages are more resilient in competition [1] Group 2 - According to Huaxi Securities, the average price of external three yuan pigs reached 12.7 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 1.26%, indicating a steady rise in pig prices [2] - As of the end of October, the number of breeding sows in China was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month, reflecting ongoing adjustments in pig production capacity [2] - The self-breeding and external purchasing pig farming models have turned profitable, with profits of 7.39 CNY/head and 2.31 CNY/head respectively [2] Group 3 - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index (930707) includes companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock sector [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index account for 67.66% of the index, with major companies including Muyuan Foods, Haida Group, and Wens Foodstuffs [2]

格隆汇1月19日｜招商证券研报指出，圣农发展通过成本优化及产品结构优化抵御鸡价低迷风险，盈利 表现优于行业。26年白鸡种禽端景气可期并有望传导至下游，看好公司全产业价值挖潜。圣农依托"种 源自给"+"全产业链一体化布局"构筑抵御行业周期波动的屏障，看好公司中长期发展前景，基于：1） 养殖：公司目前养殖产能已超过7 亿羽，屠宰量有望稳步增加，管理优化&成本改善带动羽均盈利持续 优化。2）食品：近年来深加工规模迅速增加，全渠道策略叠加公司过硬的产品力、优质的服务，为食 品业务成功打开增长空间；3）种禽端品种迭代持续推进，或有望贡献盈利增量并助力公司降本。结合 我们对于畜禽价格走势的最新判断以及贸易摩擦下饲料原料价格波动影响，预计公司2025~2027 年归属 净利润分别为13.98/15.19/19.69亿元，EPS分别为1.12/1.22/1.58元。维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 ...

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector increased by 0.75% on January 19, with Fucheng Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the aquaculture sector showed significant price increases, with Fucheng Co. rising by 6.21% to a closing price of 6.33 [1] Group 2 - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 40.39 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 39.53 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Wens Foodstuff reported a net inflow of 73.16 million yuan from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3] - Retail investors showed a negative trend in several stocks, with significant outflows from companies like Jingjidu Agricultural and Fucheng Co. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Shengnong Development has shown fluctuations, with a slight increase of 2.04% on January 19, 2023, reaching 16.51 yuan per share, while the company has experienced a year-to-date decline of 0.18% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shengnong Development achieved a revenue of 14.706 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.86% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.159 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 202.82% [2] Group 2: Shareholder and Market Activity - As of December 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shengnong Development was 35,700, a decrease of 3.93% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 4.09% to 34,352 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 7.231 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.484 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3: Stock and Capital Flow - On January 19, 2023, the main capital inflow for Shengnong Development was 17.5497 million yuan, with significant buying activity from large orders amounting to 35.073 million yuan, representing 24.31% of total buying [1] - The company’s market capitalization stood at 20.524 billion yuan as of January 19, 2023 [1]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 江楚雅 全渠道发力叠加成本管控，圣农发展盈利能力大幅提升。 近日，圣农发展（002299.SZ）披露2025年业绩预告，公司全年归母净利润预计为13.7亿元—14.3亿元， 同比大增89.16%—97.44%，业绩实现跨越式攀升。 这份亮眼成绩单，源于圣农发展的全渠道布局和成本管控能力的持续精进。公司海外市场拓展成效尤为 显著，出口收入猛增超60%。同时，公司深化精益运营，多项生产指标刷新历史最佳，全年综合造肉成 本同比下降超5%。 此外，在白羽肉鸡主业稳健增长的同时，圣农发展还通过增资森胜农牧，开拓肉杂鸡新赛道，有望打开 全新增长空间。 "全渠道+成本管控"驱动盈利大增 在复杂的市场环境中，圣农发展凭借全渠道深耕、精细化成本管控与非经常性收益加持，实现了盈利能 力的大幅跃升，行业龙头韧性尽显。 根据圣农发展近日披露的2025年业绩预告，公司全年归母净利润预计为13.7亿元—14.3亿元，相比上年 7.24亿元，大幅增长89.16%—97.44%；扣非净利润同步实现20.12%—28.81%稳健增长，基本每股收益 提升至1.11元—1.16元，业绩实现跨越式攀升 全渠道战略的全面 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [46]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of pig prices, with a current price of 12.69 CNY/Kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.20 CNY/Kg. Factors contributing to this trend include a decrease in sales plans for January and the anticipated impact of a nationwide cold wave starting January 19, which may further boost prices [5][10]. - In the planting sector, corn and soybean prices have shown stability, with corn prices at 2364 CNY/ton (up 0.5% week-on-week) and soybean prices at 4072 CNY/ton (up 0.6% week-on-week). The report expresses optimism for the recovery of planting sector profitability [3][10]. - The pet industry is experiencing increased attention due to major exhibitions, with significant events scheduled in March 2026, which are expected to catalyze new product launches from leading domestic brands [4]. Summary by Sections Livestock - The report notes that pig prices are on the rise, with a current price of 12.69 CNY/Kg, up 1.60% week-on-week and 10.06% month-on-month, although down 19.33% year-on-year. The report suggests that the cold wave and increased demand during the lunar month will be key factors influencing future price movements [5][10]. - Recommended stocks in the livestock sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from the recovery in pig prices [5][40]. Planting - The report indicates that corn and soybean prices are stable, with corn at 2364 CNY/ton and soybeans at 4072 CNY/ton. The planting sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, particularly benefiting seed companies that focus on high-quality products [3][10]. Pet Industry - Major pet exhibitions are set to take place in March 2026, which are expected to enhance market interest and lead to new product launches from top brands. The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the pet sector due to these events [4][10]. Key Company Coverage - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the industry, with all covered companies receiving an "Increase" rating. Notable companies include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and various firms in the pet and agricultural sectors [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated superior profitability compared to the industry, leveraging cost optimization and product structure adjustments to mitigate risks associated with low chicken prices. The outlook for the white-feathered chicken breeding segment is promising, which is expected to benefit the downstream market, indicating potential for value extraction across the entire industry chain [1][6]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 21,519 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,398 million yuan, representing a 93% increase compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a projected decline of over 5% in comprehensive meat production costs in 2025. The C-end revenue is expected to grow by over 30%, with offline channels seeing growth exceeding 40% [6][13]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 18,487 million yuan in 2023, 18,586 million yuan in 2024, 21,519 million yuan in 2025, 23,646 million yuan in 2026, and 26,008 million yuan in 2027 [2][20]. - The company's operating profit is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 1,606 million yuan in 2025 and 2,193 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a 100% increase in 2025 and a 29% increase in 2027 [2][20]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12 yuan in 2025 and 1.58 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio expected to decrease from 14.4 in 2025 to 10.2 in 2027 [2][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is well-positioned in the market with a breeding capacity exceeding 700 million birds and a steady increase in slaughter volume. The integration of the entire industry chain and self-sufficiency in breeding sources provide a buffer against industry cyclicality [6][13]. - The company is actively expanding its deep processing capabilities and implementing a multi-channel strategy, which has successfully opened up growth opportunities in its food business [6][13]. - The white-feathered chicken breeding segment is expected to maintain high profitability due to a decrease in imported breeding stock and the impact of avian influenza on supply, which will likely affect the downstream market positively [6][13].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance with major indices fluctuating; the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33% to 4112.60, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.41% to 14306.73 [4][7] - The total market turnover decreased significantly, exceeding 1 trillion yuan, indicating reduced trading activity [7][10] - The semiconductor industry chain showed strength, driven by TSMC's announcement of a capital expenditure forecast of $52 billion to $56 billion for 2026 [8][29] Group 2: Economic Insights - In 2025, the new social financing reached 3.56 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 1.627 trillion yuan [16][19] - The People's Bank of China lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to support economic transformation [20][21] - The foreign exchange market in China recorded a trading volume of $42.6 trillion in 2025, with a net inflow of $30.21 billion [25][26] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was approximately $40.9 billion, with expectations for continued strong demand for advanced process technologies [30][31] - The State Grid Corporation of China plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period to enhance the new energy system [32][33] - The global revenue from non-gaming applications grew by 33.9% in 2025, indicating a shift in the mobile application economy [38][39] Group 4: Company Updates - Angel Yeast (600298.SH) is expanding its overseas operations and focusing on yeast protein business as a key growth driver [42] - Zhongjing Food (300908.SZ) maintains a solid core business but faces challenges with its Shanghai scallion oil product due to increased competition [44] - Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a growth of 89% to 97% [46] - CITIC Securities (600030.SH) reported a 38.46% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by a bullish domestic capital market [50][51]

Group 1 - The livestock farming industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission calling for capacity reduction and operational control as of September 2025 [1][19] - The pig cycle typically follows a pattern of price fluctuations, with each upward cycle lasting about 1-2 years and downward cycles lasting about 1-3 years, indicating potential for price increases following supply reductions [1][19] - Current signals suggest that the pig farming industry is at a relatively low valuation, with indications that capacity reduction may accelerate [1][19] Group 2 - The CSI Livestock Farming Industry Index, launched on December 31, 2021, includes 50 listed companies in sectors such as livestock products, animal health, feed, meat products, and dairy products, serving as a benchmark for the overall performance of the livestock farming sector [2][20] - The index has a base point of 1000 and aims to reflect the core fluctuations of the livestock farming industry, with a high concentration of leading companies [4][23] - The top five constituent stocks account for 50.1% of the index, while the top ten account for 67.6%, indicating a significant concentration advantage in the industry [4][23] Group 3 - The CSI Livestock Farming Industry Index has outperformed its peers by 5 percentage points since its inception, with a current PE (TTM) ratio of 19.02, indicating a low valuation at the bottom of the cycle and potential for valuation recovery [6][26] - The index's historical performance has shown significant volatility due to the cyclical nature of the livestock farming industry [6][26] - The index is designed to provide a high-purity tool for tracking the cyclical movements of pig farming, benefiting from the resilience and profit elasticity of leading enterprises during current cost-focused cycles [4][23] Group 4 - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include major players such as Muyuan Foods (15.6% weight), Wens Foodstuff Group (14.7%), and Haida Group (9.1%), highlighting the dominance of leading companies in the livestock sector [25] - The index is positioned to benefit from ongoing policy incentives and signals of cyclical reversal, making it an attractive investment option for those optimistic about the long-term development of the livestock farming industry [33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the poultry farming industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of white feather chickens has reached a yearly high, significantly improving profitability in the breeding sector. The supply of chickens is tightening, and the impact of avian influenza on imports is expected to boost the breeding segment's outlook. Yellow feather chickens continue to maintain good profitability. [2][10][12] Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - The average price of broiler chickens in December reached 7.44 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% but a month-on-month increase of 4.3%. The average price of chicken products was 9088 yuan/ton, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 2% month-on-month. The breeding sector saw a loss of 0.26 yuan per chicken, but profitability has improved significantly compared to the previous year. [10][11] - The average price of chicken seedlings in December was 3.54 yuan per chick, down 11.1% year-on-year but up 1.2% month-on-month. Major companies like Yisheng sold 61.74 million chicks, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%. [11] - The report notes that the import volume of grandparent stock white feather chickens in China decreased by over 10% year-on-year, and avian influenza outbreaks in France have further impacted imports, leading to a positive outlook for the breeding segment. [12][31] Yellow Feather Chicken - The average price of fast-growing yellow feather chickens in December was 4.24 yuan per jin, down 13.4% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month. The average price of Xueshan grass chickens was 7.93 yuan per jin, down 5% year-on-year but up 3.3% month-on-month. The winter season has improved consumption, maintaining good profitability in the breeding sector. [22][26] - The report indicates that the production capacity of parent yellow feather chickens has dropped to historically low levels, which, combined with prolonged industry losses, is expected to lead to a supply contraction and set the stage for price increases in 2026. [27][31] - The cost of raising yellow feather chickens has decreased, with major companies reporting costs around 5.7 yuan per jin for Wens and 5.5-5.6 yuan per jin for Lihua. A recovery in chicken prices is anticipated to significantly enhance profitability. [27][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the breeding segment of white feather chickens, with Shengnong Development highlighted as a key investment opportunity. For yellow feather chickens, Lihua Co., Ltd. and Dekang Agriculture are recommended due to their favorable cost structures and potential for profitability in the upcoming period. [30][31]