Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming sector is experiencing a positive trend, with an extended profit period expected for pig farming, driven by improved demand and favorable pricing dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 7, 2025, the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) increased by 0.20%, with key stocks such as Shengnong Development (002299) rising by 1.89% and Yiduoli (300381) by 1.75% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) rose by 0.16%, with a recent price of 0.63 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 7.19% over the past three months, ranking in the top 25% among comparable funds [1]. - The average price of pork in national wholesale markets reached 20.96 yuan/kg on May 6, 2025, marking a 1.8% increase compared to pre-holiday levels [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, pig farming enterprises are projected to generate revenues of 437 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.28%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 337.73% to 32 billion yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, pig farming enterprises achieved revenues of 107.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.69% year-on-year increase, with industry net profit reaching 7.91 billion yuan, up 236.12% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of Q2 2025, domestic demand for pigs is showing marginal improvement, with price support and a gradual transition into a phase of price increases [2]. - External factors, including rising feed raw material prices due to tariffs and increased costs of imported meat, are also contributing to favorable pricing for pigs [2]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The Livestock ETF, which tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, has a current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 12.38, placing it in the 1.74% percentile over the past year, indicating a valuation lower than 98.26% of the time in the last year [2]. - The China Livestock Breeding Index includes companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [2]. Group 5: Top Weighted Stocks - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index include Haida Group (002311), Muyuan Foods (002714), and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), collectively accounting for 69.38% of the index [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The agricultural industry achieved a revenue of CNY 11,498.20 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to CNY 466.39 billion, an increase of 806.55% [6][17] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of CNY 2,706.77 billion, a year-on-year growth of 6.79%, with a net profit of CNY 133.13 billion, up 795.07% [6][17] - The overall profitability of the industry improved significantly in Q1 2025, with gross profit margin at 12.91%, net profit margin at 5.16%, and return on equity (ROE) at 2.57%, all showing year-on-year increases [21][30] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - In 2024, the agricultural industry saw a slight decline in revenue but a substantial increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite lower sales [17] - The profitability metrics for Q1 2025 showed significant improvements compared to the previous year, with a notable decrease in the expense ratio [21] Sub-industry Analysis - The livestock sector experienced a remarkable increase in net profit, with pig farming turning profitable in 2024 and continuing strong performance into 2025 [6][29] - The poultry farming sector also showed strong growth, with net profit increasing significantly due to reduced feed costs and improved efficiency [43][44] - The pet food sector maintained high growth rates, with revenues and profits continuing to rise [6][25] Livestock Farming - In 2024, pig farming companies generated CNY 4,370.03 billion in revenue, a slight decline, but net profit surged to CNY 320.13 billion, reflecting a recovery in profitability [29] - In Q1 2025, revenues for pig farming increased by 18.69% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 236.12% [29][30] Poultry Farming - Poultry farming companies achieved a revenue of CNY 520.71 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 28.49 billion, marking a significant increase [43] - In Q1 2025, revenue continued to grow, reaching CNY 118.71 billion, with net profit increasing to CNY 4.51 billion [43][44] Feed Industry - The feed industry reported a revenue of CNY 1,863.30 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 52.48 billion, showing a significant recovery in profitability [58] - In Q1 2025, revenues rose to CNY 428.66 billion, with net profit increasing to CNY 15.26 billion [58][61] Animal Health - The animal health sector saw a revenue of CNY 129.02 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 10.82 billion, despite a decline in profitability [66] - In Q1 2025, revenues increased to CNY 30.96 billion, with net profit rising to CNY 4.26 billion [66]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [17] Core Views - The pig farming sector shows significant profitability but with large variances due to cost differences, leading to a stronger performance from leading companies [19][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing a structural adjustment with varying profitability across different types of chickens, indicating a potential bottoming out in the white chicken segment [22][26] - The seed industry faces inventory pressure, but the biotechnological breeding sector is expected to accelerate due to supportive policies [29][30] - The pet industry is witnessing rapid growth of domestic brands, with a focus on high-income growth companies [32][33] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to improving market demand and continuous performance from leading companies [34] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - Q1 sales prices for most A-share pig companies were between 14.5-15.5 yuan/kg, down from 16-17 yuan/kg in Q4 2024 [19] - Leading companies like Shennong and Juxing saw over 60% year-on-year growth in output [19] - Average profit per pig improved significantly, with Shennong achieving around 300-350 yuan per head [19][21] - Some companies are returning cash to shareholders with dividend payout ratios of 49.6% for Tiankang and 42.4% for Muyuan [19] Poultry Sector - The profitability of white chickens is narrowing, with major companies reporting significant declines in net profits [22] - The supply of parent stock is at a five-year low, indicating a potential for price increases as demand recovers [26] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng [25][26] Seed Industry - The seed sector's net profit dropped by 37.6% in Q1 2025 due to oversupply, with leading companies showing varied performance [29] - High R&D investment continues, with a focus on biotechnological advancements expected to enhance competitiveness [30][31] Pet Industry - Major pet food companies reported strong revenue growth, with significant increases in net profits for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong [32] - The demand for senior pet care products is rising, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [32] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted for its market share growth and improving financial performance, with Q1 revenues up by 10.6% [34] - The aquaculture feed market is expected to improve due to rising fish prices and supportive consumption policies [34] Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is experiencing revenue and profit differentiation, with some companies like Huisheng showing over 50% growth [35] - Investment focus is on new product lines and the potential for pet health products to capture market share [35][36]

行业概览 2024 年在大宗农产品原料价格下行的背景下，农林牧渔行业整体营收小幅下滑，但是原材料成本的下降利好养殖板块 的盈利回暖，在生猪养殖产能去化的驱动下，生猪养殖板块盈利实现明显好转，禽养殖板块实现稳健盈利，农业板块 整体盈利表现明显改善。2024 年农林牧渔板块实现营业收入为 1.24 万亿，同比-4.06%；实现归母净利润 479.85 亿 元，同比由亏转盈，养殖板块盈利出现明显改善。2024Q4 板块实现营业收入 3496.94 亿元，同比+0.98%，实现归母净 利润 162.09 亿元，同比+293.20%；2025Q1 板块实现营业收入 2907 亿元，同比+4.44%，实现归母净利润 133.35 亿元， 同比实现扭亏为盈，农林牧渔板块盈利实现好转。 生猪养殖 2024 年生猪养殖板块景气回升，2024 年实现收入 4832.76 亿元，同比-2.98%；实现归母净利润 331.42 亿元，同比扭 亏为盈，板块盈利明显改善。2025Q1 板块实现收入 1188.88 亿元，同比+17.32%；实现归母净利润 81.51 亿元，同比 扭亏为盈，在头部企业出栏量持续增加与养殖成本持续改善的背景 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the agriculture sector [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the SW Agriculture sector achieved a total profit of 13.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1049%, with significant contributions from the breeding, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors, accounting for 59%, 16%, and 15% of profits respectively [10][11] - The breeding sector saw a profit of 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 254%, driven primarily by pig farming, which generated 7.615 billion yuan, up 242% year-on-year [10][11] - The feed and animal health sectors reported profits of 2.143 billion yuan and 512 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 676% and 34% [10][11] - The planting sector experienced a profit of 800 million yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, influenced by declining grain prices [10][11] Summary by Sections Breeding Sector - The average price of lean pigs was 14.69 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork was 20.59 yuan/kg, down 1.4% [12][13] - The profit from self-breeding pigs decreased to 85.05 yuan per head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 48.53 yuan per head [14][15] - The average price of broiler chickens was 7.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous week, and the average price of chicken products remained stable at 8.9 yuan/kg [25][27] Feed and Animal Health - The feed sector's profit growth was supported by the performance of the breeding sector, with significant increases in profits from poultry and aquatic feeds [10][11] - The pet food segment also showed strong performance, achieving a profit of 330 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [10] Planting Sector - The planting sector's profit decline was attributed to lower prices for corn and wheat, which fell by 11% and 14% year-on-year, respectively [10][11] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [11] Market Trends - The agriculture sector underperformed the broader market by 0.1 percentage points, with a decline of 0.6% [8][9] - The feed sector saw a slight increase of 1.65% during the same period [9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [15] Core Views - The pig farming sector shows significant profitability but with large disparities due to cost differences, leading to a "stronger becoming stronger" scenario [19][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing a structural decline in production capacity, with a focus on the white chicken segment as it approaches its lowest point [22][24] - The seed industry faces inventory pressure, but the biological breeding sector is expected to accelerate due to supportive policies [29][30] - The pet industry is witnessing rapid growth of domestic brands, with a focus on high-income growth companies [32][33] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to improving market demand and cost control capabilities [34] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - Q1 sales prices for pigs were low, averaging 14.5-15.5 CNY/kg, down from 16-17 CNY/kg in Q4 2024 [19] - Companies like Shennong and Juxing saw over 60% year-on-year growth in output [19] - Average profit per pig improved significantly, with leading companies achieving profits of 300-350 CNY per head [19][21] - Some companies are returning cash to shareholders with high dividend payout ratios [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is under pressure, with significant price declines and narrowing profits [22] - The egg-laying chicken sector is benefiting from rising chick prices and sales, with companies like Xiaoming showing substantial profit growth [28] - The yellow chicken segment is experiencing a supply contraction, with demand expected to improve gradually [26][27] Seed Industry - The seed sector is under pressure with a net profit decline of 37.6% in Q1, primarily due to excess supply [29] - High R&D investment is noted, with leading companies like Longping High-Tech maintaining a strong position [29][30] - New regulations are expected to bolster the biological breeding sector, enhancing competitiveness [30][31] Pet Industry - Major pet food companies reported strong revenue growth, with brands like Maifudi leading the market [32] - The demand for elderly pet care products is increasing significantly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [32] - The pet economy is thriving, with a focus on high-growth domestic brands [33] Feed Sector - The feed sector is recommended for investment, with companies like Haida Group showing improved revenue and profit [34] - The market for aquaculture feed is expected to recover, driven by rising fish prices and supportive consumption policies [34] Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is experiencing revenue and profit differentiation, with some companies benefiting from price increases in raw materials [35] - New product opportunities in the pet health segment are emerging, providing potential growth avenues [35][36]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 02 年 月 日 圣农发展（002299.SZ） 优价降本护航，业绩逆势增长 公司公告 2025 年第一季度报告。2025 年第一季度公司实现收入 41.15 亿元，同比减少 2.4%；归母净利润 1.48 亿元，同比增长 338.3%；扣非 归母净利润 1.7 亿元，同比增长 399.6%。 渠道优势与控本效果显现，鸡肉板块逆势盈利。2025 第一季度公司销售 鸡肉 30.3 万吨，同比增长 3.1%；销售均价 9759 元/吨，同比下跌 4%， 2025 年第一季度鸡肉价格表现低迷，跌至近 10 年鸡肉价格的底部区间， 一方面公司依托高于行业的均价，缓冲行业下行带来的压力，2025Q1 公 司鸡肉均价较行业溢价 630 元/吨，溢价水平已持续 2 个季度超过 600 元 /吨，价格优势稳固，近年来公司在客户结构、渠道结构上的优化得到充分 体现；另一方面，公司成本管控效果显现，新一代自研种鸡"圣泽 901Plus" 在料肉比等关键指标上持续优化，在公司内部的自用比例不断提升，带动 成本持续下行，叠加公司继续推进经营管理的精益化，公司 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.115 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 148 million yuan, a significant increase of 338.3% year-on-year [1] - The chicken segment showed resilience with sales of 303,000 tons, up 3.1% year-on-year, despite a decline in average selling price by 4% to 9,759 yuan per ton [2] - The company has successfully managed costs, achieving a 10% reduction in comprehensive meat production costs compared to the same period in 2024, aided by the self-developed breed "Shengze 901Plus" [2] - The C-end business experienced rapid growth, with retail sales exceeding 30% year-on-year growth, despite overall pressure in the retail sector [3] - The company expects net profits to reach 990 million yuan, 1.06 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 37.1%, 6.8%, and 13.8% [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 21.232 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 993 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.1% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.80 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.7x [5]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.115 billion CNY, a slight decline of 2.38% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 148 million CNY, a significant increase of 338.28% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 170 million CNY, up 399.58% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow net amount reached 560 million CNY, an increase of 60.70% year-on-year [1] Sales and Market Strategy - The company adopted an omnichannel sales strategy, showing a stable competitive advantage, particularly in the C-end retail business, which grew over 30% year-on-year [1] - The restaurant system business saw rapid growth, driven by the expansion of Western and Chinese chain restaurants [1] Cost Management - The new self-developed breeding chicken "Shengze 901Plus" has optimized key indicators such as feed-to-meat ratio, leading to a continued decline in costs [1][2] - The comprehensive meat production cost in Q1 2025 decreased by approximately 10% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Production Capacity and Product Development - The company has a parent stock capacity of 17.5 million sets, with nearly 5 million sets sold externally in 2024, and self-use slightly exceeding external sales [3] - The new breed "Shengze 901Plus" has shown significant improvement in feed-to-meat ratio and is well-received by customers [4] Future Business Plans - The company aims to become a world-class food enterprise, focusing on downstream deep processing and expanding both B-end and C-end markets [4] - C-end business is expected to maintain high growth over the next 3-5 years, supported by market expansion and increased outlet numbers [5] Financial Management and Dividend Policy - The company plans capital expenditures primarily on renovating old factories and upgrading production equipment [7] - Since its listing in 2009, the cumulative dividend payout has exceeded 60% of the cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders, with a commitment to continue a positive dividend policy [7] Efficiency and Cost Control - The company has improved financial control by adjusting its financing structure, reducing bank loans, and increasing the use of bills to lower financial costs [9] - Sales expenses are managed through efficiency analysis and return on investment assessments, maintaining a stable management expense ratio [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.41 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.115 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 2.38% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 15%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 148 million RMB, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 338% [1][2]. - The company's profitability is supported by a price advantage and a reduction in costs, with the average price of chicken in the industry dropping by 5.9% year-over-year, while the company's revenue only declined by 2.4% [2][3]. - The company has successfully reduced its comprehensive meat production costs by approximately 10% year-over-year, driven by improvements in self-researched breeding stock and operational efficiency [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 4.115 billion RMB, with a net profit of 148 million RMB, aligning with the performance forecast range [1]. - The company estimates its Q1 broiler meat business profit at around 85 million RMB, with a per-unit profit of nearly 0.6 RMB, while the industry faces losses of about 1.1 RMB per unit [2]. Cost Management and Sales Strategy - The company has restructured its sales channels and product strategies, leading to high revenue growth across various channels, including C-end retail, which saw over 30% year-over-year growth [3]. - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which are expected to sustain the downward trend in comprehensive meat production costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company, projecting net profits of 1.284 billion RMB, 1.643 billion RMB, and 1.890 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 9.03 RMB, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 2.15x for the same year [4].