Core Points - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (970064) closed at 1612.77 points, up 0.73%, with a trading volume of 20.124 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.78% [1] - Among the index constituents, 33 stocks rose, with China National Materials Technology leading at a 10.01% increase, while 12 stocks fell, with CITIC Special Steel leading the decline at 2.97% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index include: - BOE Technology Group (sz000725) with a weight of 9.31%, latest price at 3.85, and a market cap of 144.043 billion yuan [1] - Hikvision (sz002415) with a weight of 7.97%, latest price at 29.99, and a market cap of 274.855 billion yuan [1] - Wuliangye Yibin (sz000858) with a weight of 7.71%, latest price at 118.51, and a market cap of 460.009 billion yuan [1] - Luzhou Laojiao (sz000568) with a weight of 6.59%, latest price at 133.59, and a market cap of 196.637 billion yuan [1] - XCMG Machinery (sz000425) with a weight of 5.75%, latest price at 10.30, and a market cap of 121.056 billion yuan [1] - Changan Automobile (sz000625) with a weight of 3.88%, latest price at 11.91, and a market cap of 118.077 billion yuan [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan (sz000166) with a weight of 3.84%, latest price at 5.14, and a market cap of 128.705 billion yuan [1] - Yunnan Aluminum (sz000807) with a weight of 3.81%, latest price at 23.54, and a market cap of 81.636 billion yuan [1] - Yanghe Brewery (sz002304) with a weight of 3.37%, latest price at 65.71, and a market cap of 68.686 billion yuan [1] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (sz000630) with a weight of 3.18%, latest price at 6.67, and a market cap of 66.913 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Summary - The net inflow of main funds into the index constituents totaled 425 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 319 million yuan [3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - China National Materials Technology with a net inflow of 210 million yuan from main funds [3] - Luzhou Laojiao with a net inflow of 91.542 million yuan from main funds [3] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals with a net inflow of 60.685 million yuan from main funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is undergoing a significant adjustment, with expectations of a gradual bottoming phase by 2026 despite current challenges [1]. Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.02 points, up 0.87%, while the baijiu sector index closed at 2254.47 points, up 0.28% [1]. - A total of 12 baijiu stocks saw gains, with the leading stock, Jiu Gui Jiu, increasing by 1.73% [1]. - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the baijiu industry has been in deep adjustment this year, with a notable acceleration in supply-side clearing since the third quarter [1]. - The industry is expected to remain in an adjustment phase until 2026, but signs of a bottoming phase are anticipated, characterized by narrowing declines in sales and prices, along with continued clearing in financial statements [1]. Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai's stock closed at 1444.65 yuan per share, down 0.51% [1]. - Wuliangye's stock closed at 118.51 yuan per share, down 0.01% [1]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's stock closed at 192.99 yuan per share, up 0.31% [1]. - Luzhou Laojiao's stock closed at 133.59 yuan per share, up 0.50% [1]. - Yanghe's stock closed at 65.71 yuan per share, down 1.19% [1].

Core Insights - The retail prices of the top ten liquor products in the white liquor market have continued to rise, with an overall price of 9,291 yuan for a bundled sale, marking an increase of 8 yuan from the previous day, achieving four consecutive days of price increases [1] Price Movements - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a strong performance with a daily price increase of 8 yuan per bottle [1] - Guojiao 1573's price increased by 6 yuan per bottle [1] - Qinghualang's price rose by 5 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of increases [1] - Prices for Shuijing Jian'nan Chun and Xijiu Junpin increased by 3 yuan and 2 yuan per bottle, respectively, showing stable trends [1] - Qinghualan 20's price rose by 2 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye Pu 58's price also increased by 2 yuan per bottle [1] - In contrast, the prices of some products decreased, with the boutique Moutai and Gujing Gong Gu 20 dropping by 9 yuan and 7 yuan per bottle, respectively [1] - Feitian Moutai's price fell by 4 yuan per bottle [1] Specific Product Prices - Feitian Moutai: 1,831 yuan per bottle, down 470 yuan [3] - Boutique Moutai: 2,369 yuan per bottle, down 9 yuan [3] - Wuliangye Pu 58: 868 yuan per bottle, up 2 yuan [3] - Qinghualan 20: 396 yuan per bottle, up 2 yuan [3] - Guojiao 1573: 895 yuan per bottle, up 670 yuan [3] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 600 yuan per bottle [3] - Gujing Gong Gu 20: 506 yuan per bottle, down 7 yuan [3] - Qinghualang: 730 yuan per bottle, down 570 yuan [4] - Shuijing Jian'nan Chun: 421 yuan per bottle, up 3 yuan [4] - Xijiu Junpin: 675 yuan per bottle, up 2 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The retail average price of the top ten liquor products in the white liquor market continues to rise, reaching 9,291 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan from the previous day, marking four consecutive days of price increases [1] Price Movements - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ shows strong performance with a daily price increase of 8 yuan per bottle [1] - Guojiao 1573 price increased by 6 yuan per bottle [1] - Qinghua Lang price rose by 5 yuan per bottle, achieving five consecutive days of increases, leading the market [1] - Crystal Jian Nan Chun and Xijiu Junpin prices increased by 3 yuan and 2 yuan per bottle, respectively, showing stable trends [1] - Qinghua Fen 20 price increased by 2 yuan per bottle [1] - Wuliangye Pu 58 price also rose by 2 yuan per bottle [1] Price Declines - Premium Moutai and Gujing Gong Gu 20 experienced significant declines, with prices dropping by 9 yuan and 7 yuan per bottle, respectively [1] - Feitian Moutai price decreased by 4 yuan per bottle [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, while prices for instant foods and condiments have rebounded [1][10]. - Discounts for convenience foods and seasonings have narrowed compared to the end of October, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [19][38]. - The report highlights the stability of discounts for infant formula and beer, while discounts for liquid milk and soft drinks have increased [21][38]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - The wholesale prices for various Baijiu brands, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, have shown significant declines compared to previous months and year-to-date figures [9][40]. - For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1650 yuan, down by 110 yuan from last month, and down 590 yuan year-to-date [40]. Consumer Goods Discounts - Convenience foods have seen an increase in average and median discount rates, moving from 93.2%/95.9% at the end of October to 95.8%/97.0% [19][38]. - Seasonings also experienced a rise in discount rates, from 83.7%/84.9% to 85.9%/88.9% [19][38]. - In contrast, liquid milk discounts have widened, with average rates dropping from 69.6% to 66.0% [21][38]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Shanxi Fenjiu - Yanghe - Others [1].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu industry, is experiencing a market correction with valuations at relatively low historical levels, while market expectations remain weak [2] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 24, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05% [2] - The baijiu sector closed at 2248.25 points, increasing by 0.17%, with 11 baijiu stocks rising [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1452.00 CNY per share, down 1.00% [2] - Wuliangye closed at 118.52 CNY per share, down 0.97% [2] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 192.40 CNY per share, down 0.31% [2] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 132.92 CNY per share, down 0.95% [2] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 66.50 CNY per share, down 0.67% [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the baijiu industry is currently in a phase of bottoming out, with ongoing sales struggles [2] - Moutai is addressing e-commerce chaos to stabilize price expectations, supported by performance-driven strategies and strong brand influence [2] - The industry is exploring new marketing models while leveraging strong operational capabilities to enhance channel performance [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market, particularly the baijiu sector, experienced significant growth in 2020, with A-shares leading globally. The overall revenue for 19 listed baijiu companies reached 258.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.58% [1][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies totaled 92.068 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 11.95% compared to the previous year [1][5] - There is a notable divergence in performance among baijiu companies, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye achieving double-digit growth, while some smaller brands faced significant declines [4][9] Revenue Performance - In 2020, 19 listed baijiu companies reported a total revenue of 258.94 billion yuan, with 11 companies showing positive growth and 8 experiencing negative growth [2][5] - The highest revenue growth was recorded by Jiugui Liquor at 20.79%, while Qingqing Qiao experienced a decline of 39.07%, marking a difference of 59.86 percentage points [2][3] - The top three companies by revenue were Moutai (94.915 billion yuan), Wuliangye (57.321 billion yuan), and Yanghe (21.101 billion yuan) [4] Profit Analysis - The six leading baijiu companies accounted for over 90% of the total profits in the sector, with Moutai alone contributing more than 36% of total revenue and over 50% of total profits [7][9] - Moutai's net profit reached 46.697 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.33%, while Wuliangye's net profit was 19.955 billion yuan, growing by 14.67% [6][7] - Jiugui Liquor showed remarkable performance with a net profit growth of 64.15%, while Qingqing Qiao reported a significant loss of 1.15 billion yuan [6][7] Market Dynamics - The pandemic initially impacted the baijiu industry negatively, but leading brands demonstrated resilience, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving substantial growth [9] - The disparity in performance is evident, with some companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Jiugui Liquor seeing stock prices increase over threefold, while others struggled [9][11] - The overall tax contributions from the baijiu sector increased significantly, with a 48% rise in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the previous year, attributed to a recovery from the pandemic [14][15] Financial Health - As of March 2021, Wuliangye had the highest cash reserves among listed baijiu companies, totaling 73.38 billion yuan, while Moutai had approximately 50.743 billion yuan [17][18] - The financial strength of these companies is crucial for their ability to invest and expand in a competitive market [17] Compensation Trends - Moutai reported the highest average employee salary in the sector at over 300,000 yuan, while the lowest was at less than 52,000 yuan for Huangtai Liquor [19][20] - The management compensation for Moutai was relatively low compared to other companies, with total management salaries below 3.72 million yuan [21][23]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market shows a strong performance with a general price increase across the top ten products, indicating positive market sentiment and consumer demand [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products reached 9283 yuan, an increase of 21 yuan from the previous day, marking a recent high in daily price growth [1]. - Qinghua Lang leads the market with a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle, achieving its fifth consecutive day of price rise [1]. - Xijiu Junpin and Wuliangye Pu Wu Ba Dai both saw a price increase of 4 yuan per bottle, reflecting a steady upward trend [1]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Gujing Gong Gu 20 both increased by 3 yuan per bottle, while most products maintained stable or slightly rising prices [1]. - Moutai's boutique price ended its recent decline with a 1 yuan increase, while Feitian Moutai's price remained unchanged [1]. Product Pricing Summary - The following are the current prices and changes for notable products: - Feitian Moutai 53°/500ml: 1835 yuan, unchanged [3] - Boutique Moutai 53°/500ml: 2378 yuan, up 1 yuan [3] - Wuliangye Pu Wu Ba Dai 52°/500ml: 866 yuan, up 4 yuan [3] - Qinghua Fen 20 53°/500ml: 394 yuan, up 1 yuan [3] - Guojiao 1573 52°/500ml: 889 yuan, down 1 yuan [3] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ 52°/550ml: 592 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - Gujing Gong Gu 20 52°/500ml: 513 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - Xijiu Junpin 53°/500ml: 673 yuan, up 4 yuan [4] - Qinghua Lang 53°/500ml: 725 yuan, up 5 yuan [4] - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun 52°/500ml: 418 yuan, up 1 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage & commercial sectors [9][56] Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with market sentiment improving, presenting a good opportunity for low-level positioning. Recent CPI recovery and consensus on destocking, along with the Double 11 shopping festival, have contributed to this trend. The Federal Reserve's dovish signals on November 21 have also created favorable conditions for the market [5][54] - Long-term prospects for leading liquor companies are promising due to their strong risk resistance and increasing market concentration, supported by domestic demand policies and recovering consumer sentiment. The industry is still in a destocking phase, with demand at a low point [5][54] - The consumer goods sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with the snack food segment remaining robust and soft drink leaders maintaining stability during the off-season. The dairy sector is approaching a supply-demand improvement point, while the restaurant industry is shifting from incremental to stock competition due to demand pressure [55] Summary by Sections Industry News - From January to October, white liquor production decreased by 11.5% [16] - The overall sentiment in the sector is improving, driven by the upcoming holiday season and promotional activities [5][54] Company News - Guizhou Moutai has initiated its annual meeting season for Moutai liquor [4] - Wuliangye is launching a new zodiac-themed product for the Year of the Horse [4] Key Company Feedback - The report highlights key companies with strong long-term investment value, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, as well as more flexible stocks like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shede Liquor [5][54][57] Core Data Trends - The cumulative production of white liquor in 2024 is projected at 4.145 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year, while industry revenue is expected to reach 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [32][33]

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.42% on November 21, with the leading stock, Jiu Gui Jiu, falling the most [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Stock Performance Summary - Guizhou Moutai closed at 1466.60, with a slight decrease of 0.03% and a trading volume of 42,600 shares, amounting to 6.26 billion [1] - Wuliangye closed at 119.68, down 0.47%, with a trading volume of 205,100 shares, totaling 2.468 billion [1] - Luzhou Laojiao saw a decline of 1.94%, closing at 134.20, with a trading volume of 101,800 shares, amounting to 1.385 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 438 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 112 million [2] - The main stocks with significant capital flow included Shanxi Fenjiu, which had a net inflow of 12.5 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 23.5 million from retail investors [3] - Tianyoude Liquor experienced a net outflow of 8.74 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 5.63 million [3]