Core Insights - The article highlights the structural upward trend in the retail prices of China's top ten liquor products, with a total price of 9,051 yuan for a bundled sale, marking an increase of 38 yuan from the previous day, reaching a new high in nearly a month [1][6][7] Price Trends - The market shows a general upward trend, with seven products increasing in price and three decreasing. Mid-range products have seen concentrated price increases, while high-end liquor has slightly adjusted from high levels [1][7] - Notable price increases include: - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ up by 14 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Lang up by 13 yuan per bottle - Xijiu Junpin up by 7 yuan per bottle - Gujing Gonggu 20 and Qinghua Fen 20 up by 5 yuan and 4 yuan respectively - Wuliangye Pu 58 and Guojiao 1573 up by 2 yuan and 1 yuan respectively [1][7][10] Price Decreases - The following products experienced price reductions: - Feitian Moutai down by 4 yuan per bottle - Boutique Moutai down by 3 yuan per bottle - Crystal Jian Nan Chun down by 1 yuan per bottle [1][7][10] Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [2][8] Brand Value Insights - According to the 2025 Hurun China Brand List released on February 3, Guizhou Moutai maintains its position as the top brand in China with a brand value of 795 billion yuan for the eighth consecutive year. The list has expanded from 300 to 500 brands, including non-Chinese brands, reflecting the evolving brand landscape in China [2][8]

Core Insights - The Chinese white liquor market has shown a structural upward trend in retail prices for the top ten products as of February 4, with an overall price increase of 38 yuan, reaching a total of 9051 yuan, marking a new high in nearly a month [1] Price Movements - Among the top ten products, seven experienced price increases while three saw declines, indicating a general upward trend in the market [1] - Mid-range products showed concentrated price increases, while high-end liquor experienced slight adjustments from previous high levels [1] - The most significant price increase was observed in Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, which rose by 14 yuan per bottle, achieving three consecutive days of price increases [1] - Other notable increases included Qinghua Lang (up 13 yuan), Xijiu Junpin (up 7 yuan), and Gujing Gonggu 20 (up 5 yuan) [1] - Conversely, Feitian Moutai and Boutique Moutai saw decreases of 4 yuan and 3 yuan per bottle, respectively, indicating a short-term price consolidation phase after previous significant increases [1] Specific Product Pricing - The current retail prices for key products are as follows: - Feitian Moutai: 1695 yuan (down 4 yuan) - Boutique Moutai: 2392 yuan (down 3 yuan) - Wuliangye Pu 58: 805 yuan (up 2 yuan) - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 604 yuan (up 14 yuan) - Gujing Gonggu 20: 526 yuan (up 5 yuan) - Xijiu Junpin: 642 yuan (up 7 yuan) - Qinghua Lang: 728 yuan (up 13 yuan) - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun: 391 yuan (down 1 yuan) [3][4]

Core Points - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has announced the list of 2025 Consumer Brands, which includes 276 brands, comprising 165 enterprise brands, 76 regional brands, and 35 brands suitable for specific demographics [1][2]. Group 1: Announcement Details - The announcement aims to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party and accelerate the promotion of new industrialization [2]. - The selection process involved enterprise applications, preliminary reviews by provincial departments, expert evaluations, and public announcements [2]. - Local governments are encouraged to promote these brands and provide policy support to cultivate distinctive industries and quality consumer brands [2]. Group 2: Brand Categories - The list includes 165 enterprise brands, 76 regional brands, and 35 brands for specific demographics [1][2]. - Notable enterprise brands include well-known names such as "Fenjiu," "Yanghe," and "Midea" [3][4][5]. - Regional brands represent various local specialties, such as "Beijing Erguotou" and "Jilin Red Ginseng," showcasing regional characteristics [12][13][14]. Group 3: Compliance and Management - Consumer brands are required to comply with national laws and regulations, operate with integrity, and fulfill social responsibilities [2]. - The Ministry will establish a management mechanism to conduct regular assessments and revoke qualifications for brands involved in illegal activities or significant quality and safety incidents [2].

Investment Focus - The report highlights the value of consumer stocks in a volatile market, recommending a focus on companies like Guizhou Moutai, Eastroc Beverage, and Yili Group, all rated as "Outperform" [1]. Industry Overview - In January 2026, four out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, including condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining, while four sectors, such as mid-to-high-end baijiu, dairy products, and beer, experienced declines [3][9]. - The overall consumer industry is characterized by a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards essential goods [9]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - The revenue for the mid-to-high-end baijiu sector in January was 470 billion yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year, while the revenue for the mass-market baijiu sector was 229 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [10][11]. - The soft drink sector reported a revenue of 962 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, indicating a cautious recovery in demand [17]. - The frozen food sector saw a revenue of 150 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, driven by pre-Spring Festival stocking and low temperatures [16]. Price Trends - The report notes that the wholesale prices of major baijiu brands like Guizhou Moutai remained stable, while some brands faced downward price pressures due to high inventory levels [4][21]. - The average discount rates for liquid milk and condiments increased compared to the previous month, reflecting intensified market competition [35][37]. Market Dynamics - The report identifies four favorable funding factors for the essential consumer sector, including significant volatility in global capital markets, declining risk-free interest rates, increased foreign capital allocation to China, and low institutional allocation levels [6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with both domestic and foreign institutional preferences, as well as those showing improvements in fundamentals and dividend yields [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the launch of "Wine Price Reference" by Sina Finance, which provides real-time data on the retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands, highlighting a structural price differentiation in the market as of February 3rd [1][7]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products in China was reported at 9013 yuan, a slight decrease of 7 yuan from the previous day, primarily driven by price corrections in high-end products [1][7]. - Among the ten products, seven saw price increases while three experienced declines, indicating a continued structural differentiation in pricing [1][7]. Notable Price Changes - The price of Xijiu Junpin increased by 10 yuan, while Qinghua Lang rose by 8 yuan, reflecting a stronger pricing strategy in the market [1][7]. - Other products like Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Guojiao 1573 each saw a price increase of 5 yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [1][7]. - Conversely, the price of premium Moutai dropped by 22 yuan, marking the largest decline, following a previous strong price increase [1][7]. Data Collection Methodology - The "Wine Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective price tracking system [2][8]. - The data aims to provide a scientifically accurate and traceable representation of the market prices for well-known liquor brands [2][8]. iMoutai Platform Insights - The iMoutai platform reported an increase of 6.28 million new users in the past month, with active users exceeding 15.31 million [2][8]. - The platform successfully processed over 2.12 million orders, with more than 1.43 million orders for the 500ml Moutai product, indicating strong consumer demand [2][8]. - iMoutai has enhanced its risk management capabilities, successfully intercepting 540 million instances of abnormal behavior in January, aiming to create a fair and orderly consumption environment [2][8].

Core Insights - The Chinese white liquor market is experiencing structural price differentiation among its top ten products, with a slight overall price decline observed on February 3, where the total retail price for a bundled sale of these products was 9013 yuan, down by 7 yuan from the previous day [1] Price Movements - Among the top ten products, seven saw price increases while three experienced declines, indicating a continuation of structural differentiation in terminal prices [1] - The most significant price increases were noted for: - Xijiu Junpin, which rose by 10 yuan - Qinghua Lang, which increased by 8 yuan - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Guojiao 1573, both up by 5 yuan, reflecting stronger channel pricing intentions [1] - Conversely, the largest declines were recorded for: - Boutique Moutai, which fell by 22 yuan after a previous strong increase - Feitian Moutai, down by 16 yuan following a substantial rise at the end of January - Qinghua Fen, which decreased by 3 yuan, indicating slight market price easing [1] Specific Product Pricing - The current prices for notable products are as follows: - Feitian Moutai: 1699 yuan, down by 16 yuan - Boutique Moutai: 2395 yuan, down by 22 yuan - Wuliangye Pu 58: 803 yuan, up by 2 yuan - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 590 yuan, up by 5 yuan - Xijiu Junpin: 635 yuan, up by 10 yuan - Qinghua Lang: 715 yuan, up by 8 yuan - Gujing Gong: 521 yuan, up by 1 yuan - Shujian Jian Nan Chun: 392 yuan, up by 3 yuan [3][4]

Core Insights - The company, Yanghe, is expected to report a significant decline in net profit for 2025, with a projected drop of 62.18% to 68.3 billion yuan, marking the largest decline in five years [2][3] - The company is facing challenges due to a deep adjustment period in the liquor industry, characterized by increased competition, reduced market demand, and rising channel inventory [5][14] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 211.58 million yuan and 252.36 million yuan, representing a decline of 62.18% to 68.30% compared to the previous year [4] - The non-recurring net profit is expected to fall between 185.32 million yuan and 226.10 million yuan, down 66.92% to 72.89% year-on-year [4] - Basic earnings per share are projected to be between 1.40 yuan and 1.68 yuan, compared to 4.43 yuan per share in the previous year [4] Product Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 36.52%, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 27.24% in the first half of 2025 [6][7] - The terminal price of the mid-range product, Mengzhilan M6+, has dropped to 585 yuan, significantly lower than the official price of 998 yuan, indicating a price inversion of over 40% [6][9] - The high-end product, Mengzhilan Handcrafted Class Ten Years, is selling for 888 to 1000 yuan on e-commerce platforms, which is 53% lower than its official price of 1899 yuan [9] Market Challenges - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue both domestically and in external markets, with a drop exceeding 25% in both areas, and a staggering 42.68% decline in external markets [9][10] - The number of distributors has decreased by 268 in external markets, indicating challenges in maintaining market presence [10] Strategic Adjustments - The new chairman, Gu Yu, has initiated strategic adjustments focusing on core brands and optimizing product quality, but the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain [12][14] - The company plans to manage inventory and stabilize prices while enhancing brand strength, but internal sources indicate that significant improvements may take time [12]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector showed resilience in the market, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) experiencing a price increase of 0.86% by the end of trading on February 2, 2026, despite an initial surge of 3.28% during the day [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage ETF Huabao (515710) opened strong, reaching a peak increase of 3.28% before closing up 0.86% [1]. - Major liquor stocks saw significant gains, with Jinhuijiu hitting the daily limit, Shuijingfang rising by 7.44%, and Jinzongzi Jiu increasing by 5.17% [1]. - Leading liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yanghe also closed in the green [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - CITIC Construction pointed out that the surge in the liquor sector is driven by Moutai's sales price exceeding expectations, recognized reforms, and easing real estate policies, alongside a positive outlook for PPI [1]. - Moutai's payment and delivery progress has surpassed last year's levels, and industry reforms are advancing, with expectations for the industry to bottom out by 2026, potentially increasing market share for leading brands [1]. - Current valuations in the food and beverage sector remain low, with the PE ratio of the Huabao ETF at 19.81, placing it in the 3.33% percentile of the last decade, indicating strong medium to long-term investment potential [1][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Xiangcai Securities noted that the food and beverage industry's valuation is at a historical low, despite weak market data such as retail sales and consumer confidence [3]. - The prolonged adjustment period has led to a pricing of pessimistic expectations, and with inflation showing signs of mild recovery, investment opportunities in the consumption sector are emerging [3]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on core assets within the food and beverage sector, particularly the Huabao ETF, which has a significant allocation to leading high-end liquor stocks and other beverage segments [3].

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 1.86% on February 2, with Jinhuijiu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed significant price increases, with Jinhuijiu up 10.00% to 23.98, and Huangtaijiu up 9.98% to 17.52 [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 1.464 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 448 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for major liquor stocks included Luzhou Laojiao at 33.07 billion yuan and Wuliangye at 57.54 billion yuan [2] - The stock performance of major companies included Moutai with a closing price of 1427.00, up 1.86%, and Wuliangye at 107.29, up 2.18% [1][2] Group 3 - Moutai had a main fund net inflow of 5.46 billion yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 861,700 yuan [3] - Luzhou Laojiao saw a main fund net inflow of 1.56 billion yuan, with a retail net outflow of 1.1 billion yuan [3] - Water Well Square had a main fund net inflow of 1.46 billion yuan, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 58.5 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival marketing activities, with a focus on market cultivation and consumer education to promote sales and alleviate pressure on distributors [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75 points, down 2.48%, while the liquor sector closed at 2275.05 points, down 0.29% [1] - 19 liquor stocks rose, with notable gains from Jinhuijiu and Huangtaijiu, which hit the daily limit [1] - Major liquor companies showed positive performance: - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1427 CNY/share, up 1.86% - Wuliangye closed at 107.29 CNY/share, up 2.18% - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 173.5 CNY/share, up 1.46% - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 122.00 CNY/share, up 0.91% - Yanghe Brewery closed at 55.87 CNY/share, up 0.99% [1] Company Summary - CITIC Securities highlighted that the liquor industry is learning from leading companies' experiences in channel and product reforms following distributor conferences [1] - The firm anticipates that the actual sales of liquor during the 2026 Spring Festival will remain stable, considering factors such as improved sales dynamics, an additional day off during the holiday, and the consumption scenarios associated with the festival [1]