芯动联科、 华岭股份涨超10%， 圣邦股份、 龙芯中科、 紫光国微、 寒武纪涨超5%， 北方华创、 华海 清科、 芯原股份、 沪硅产业等跟涨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 29.838 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.14%, and a net profit of 5.693 billion RMB, up 46.01% year-on-year [3][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 7.340 billion and 8.980 billion RMB, representing a growth of 23.35% to 50.91% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be between 1.420 billion and 1.740 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.69% to 52.79% [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic semiconductor equipment market, with expectations of increased market share due to the ongoing trend of domestic substitution [4]. Performance Analysis - The company is expected to see continuous growth in revenue and profit, with projections for 2024-2026 showing revenues of 29.838 billion, 38.836 billion, and 46.902 billion RMB, respectively, and net profits of 5.693 billion, 7.668 billion, and 9.809 billion RMB [5][10]. - The company has successfully developed new products, enhancing its product matrix and solidifying its position as an industry leader [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer, with a strong competitive edge in various core process equipment [4]. - The ongoing expansion plans of domestic storage manufacturers and advanced process technology are expected to provide the company with repeat order capabilities, contributing to significant revenue growth [4].

风险提示：下游晶圆厂扩产不及预期，美国半导体设备出口管制加剧，新品研发不及预期，行业竞争加 剧的风险。 团队介绍 点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 北方华创发布25Q1业绩预告，预计收入73.4-89.8亿元，同比+23.4%-50.9%/环比-22.6%~-5.3%；归母净 利润14.2-17.4亿元，同比+24.7%-52.8%/环比+22.6%-50.2%。在国内设备自主可控强化的背景下，公司 工艺覆盖范围扩大，平台化优势不断凸显。 25Q1收入利润同比快速增长，盈利能力维持高位。 1）2024年公司收入预计298.4亿元，同比+35.1%； 归母净利润56.2亿元，同比+44.2%；扣非净利润55.7亿元，同比+55.5%；2）25Q1公司预计收入73.4- 89.8亿元，同比+23.4%-50.9%/环比-22.6%~-5.3%；归母净利润14.2-17.4亿元，同比+24.7%-52.8%/环比 +22.6%-50.2%；扣非净利润14-17亿元，同比+29%-58.6%/环比+7.4%-32%。25Q1公司扣非净利率约 19%，同比+1pct/环比+5pcts。 公司平台化布局进一步完善，各 ...

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Chuangxin Quality Growth Index, rose by 0.92% to 6368.71 points, with a trading volume of 370.183 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has decreased by 8.87%, by 3.80% over the last three months, and by 7.25% year-to-date [1] - The index selects listed companies with high return on equity across various industries, providing diverse investment options for investors [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Kweichow Moutai (9.8%), BYD (2.99%), Wuliangye (2.56%), Dongfang Fortune (2.51%), and others [1] - The index's holdings are primarily from the Shanghai Stock Exchange (53.96%) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (46.04%) [1] - The industry composition of the index shows that consumer staples account for 20.20%, industrials for 17.60%, and financials for 10.81%, among others [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted four times a year, specifically in March, May, September, and November on the next trading day after the second Friday [2] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the sample adjustments, which are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment [2] - Special circumstances may lead to temporary adjustments of the index, including the removal of samples that are delisted or undergo mergers and acquisitions [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 73.4 to 89.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.4% to 50.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 22.6% to 5.3% [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 14.2 to 17.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.7% to 52.8% [1][6]. - The company's platform advantages are becoming increasingly prominent as it expands its process coverage in the semiconductor equipment sector [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2022 was 14.688 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 52% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 2.353 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 118% [2][8]. - The projected revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 29.838 billion yuan, 39.220 billion yuan, and 48.456 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.622 billion yuan, 7.547 billion yuan, and 9.573 billion yuan [2][8]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2022 was 12.8%, expected to rise to 23.1% by 2026 [9]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 16.0% in 2022 to 19.8% in 2026 [9]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 97.8 in 2022 to 24.0 by 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 29.838 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.14%, and a net profit of 5.693 billion RMB, up 46.01% year-on-year [3][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 7.340 billion and 8.980 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 23.35% to 50.91%, and a net profit between 1.420 billion and 1.740 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 24.69% to 52.79% [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic semiconductor equipment market, with expectations of increased market share due to the ongoing trend of domestic substitution [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.838 billion RMB, a 35.14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.693 billion RMB, up 46.01% year-on-year [3][10]. - The Q1 2025 forecast indicates revenue of 7.340 to 8.980 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 23.35% to 50.91%, and a net profit of 1.420 to 1.740 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 24.69% to 52.79% [3]. Operational Analysis - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share due to the domestic substitution trend accelerated by new U.S. regulations on semiconductor equipment [4]. - As a leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion plans of domestic storage manufacturers and advanced process technology [4]. - The company has successfully developed new products, enhancing its product matrix and solidifying its position as an industry leader [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 29.838 billion, 38.836 billion, and 46.902 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.1%, 30.2%, and 20.8% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 5.693 billion, 7.668 billion, and 9.809 billion RMB, with growth rates of 46.0%, 34.7%, and 27.9% respectively [5]. - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 10.7, 14.3, and 18.4 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 18, and 14 [5].

Group 1 - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the semiconductor sector, highlighting the acceleration of domestic substitution in the analog chip segment due to increased tariffs between China and the US [2][7]. - The SW semiconductor index fell by 5.70% in March 2025, underperforming the electronic industry by 1.33 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 5.63 percentage points [4][15]. - As of March 31, 2025, the SW semiconductor index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was 92.69x, placing it in the 72.16 percentile since 2019, indicating a relatively high valuation level [4][26]. Group 2 - In Q4 2024, the proportion of semiconductor heavy holdings in funds increased to 11.4%, which is 6.8 percentage points above the semiconductor market capitalization [5][33]. - The global semiconductor sales in February 2025 reached $54.92 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.1%, although the growth rate has been narrowing for five consecutive months [6][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved performance in the analog chip sector, with companies like 圣邦股份 (Sengbang), 思瑞浦 (Siyipu), and 纳芯微 (Naxinwei) recommended for investment due to expected earnings recovery in 2025 [7][9]. Group 3 - The report notes that the global semiconductor sales for Q4 2024 were $170.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.0% [57]. - The report highlights that the NAND Flash contract price increased from $2.18 to $2.29 in February 2025, while DRAM contract prices remained stable [51][51]. - The semiconductor equipment sales in Q3 2024 reached $30.4 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.7% [57].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 reached CNY 29.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.14%[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 5.62 billion, up 44.17% compared to the previous year[4] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2022 to 2024 was 42.53%[6] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2022 to 2024 was 54.57%[6] - Basic earnings per share increased by 43.60% to CNY 10.57[4] - The weighted average return on equity improved to 24.83%, up 6.95 percentage points from the previous year[4] Asset and Equity Growth - The company's total assets increased by 22.54% to CNY 65.71 billion compared to the beginning of the reporting period[4] - The equity attributable to shareholders rose by 27.56% to CNY 31.08 billion[4] Business Expansion and Efficiency - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by breakthroughs in multiple new products in the integrated circuit equipment sector[6] - The company has consistently expanded its business scale while effectively reducing costs and improving operational efficiency[6]

Financial Projections - The expected operating revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to be between 7.34 billion and 8.98 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.35% to 50.91% compared to 5.95 billion CNY in the same period last year[2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 1.42 billion and 1.74 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.69% to 52.79% from 1.14 billion CNY[2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 1.40 billion and 1.72 billion CNY, indicating a year-on-year growth of 29.06% to 58.56% compared to 1.08 billion CNY last year[2]. - The basic earnings per share are expected to be between 2.66 CNY and 3.26 CNY, up from 2.15 CNY in the same period last year[2]. - The performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, with final financial data to be disclosed in the Q1 2025 report[5]. Technological Advancements - The company achieved key technological breakthroughs in several new products, including CCP and ALD equipment, leading to a significant increase in process coverage and market share[4]. Cost Management - The company’s cost expense ratio has steadily decreased due to the continued expansion of revenue scale, contributing to the growth in net profit attributable to shareholders[4].

电子行业今日下跌11.04%，全天主力资金净流出210.41亿元，该行业所属的个股共461只，今日上涨的 有2只；下跌的有457只，跌停的有276只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有32 只，净流入资金居首的是同兴达，今日净流入资金1971.10万元，紧随其后的是龙迅股份、鸿日达，净 流入资金分别为1581.77万元、1359.35万元。电子行业资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超亿元的有48 只，净流出资金居前的有中芯国际、寒武纪、北方华创，净流出资金分别为8.83亿元、7.08亿元、5.28 亿元。（数据宝） 电子行业资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002845 | 同兴达 | -8.68 | 5.98 | 1971.10 | | 688486 | 龙迅股份 | -11.72 | 3.69 | 1581.77 | | 301285 | 鸿日达 | -6.71 | 9.85 | 1359.35 | | 688361 | 中科飞测 | -3.42 | 4.19 ...