转自：北京日报客户端 金秋时节，秫熟稻香、牛羊成群、瓜果飘香。又是一年好"丰"景。"十四五"时期，我国粮食产量迈上新 台阶，多元化食物供给体系也在加快构建。中国人的饭碗端得更牢，百姓的餐桌越来越丰富。 农业农村部部长韩俊表示，"现在人均粮食占有量已经达到了500公斤，做到了谷物基本自给、口粮绝对 安全，国家粮食安全是有充分保障的。同时，棉油糖产能也是持续提升，果菜茶、肉蛋奶和水产品的供 给是充足的，种类是多样的，可以说，现在我们老百姓的餐桌越来越丰富。" 9月23日， 在北大荒集团黑龙江格球山农场有限公司大豆地块，农机在进行收获作业（无人机照片）。新华社发 （陆文祥摄） 全方位夯实粮食安全根基 据了解，"十四五"以来，我国深入实施国家粮食安全战略，强化藏粮于地、藏粮于技，全方位夯实粮食 安全根基。 "以前种地都是靠经验，现在全凭'科技范儿'。"河南省尉氏县小陈乡阮庄村臻之源家庭农场负责人卢军 民说。 这是河南 省尉氏县小陈乡阮庄村臻之源家庭农场的玉米田。李新义 摄 河南尉氏县地处豫东平原，是全国粮食生产先进县，目前已建成高标准农田90万亩，连续多年实现粮食 总产超12亿公斤。 工作人员 卢军民介绍，"今年我们 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese government is focused on achieving high-quality agricultural and rural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the goal of building an agricultural powerhouse and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [1][8] Agricultural Production - Grain production is expected to reach approximately 1.4 trillion jin (about 700 million tons) in 2024, with a per capita grain availability of 500 kg, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in staple food [2][3] - The area for autumn grain cultivation has increased, and the growth conditions are favorable, setting a solid foundation for a bountiful harvest [2] - The average yield of grain per mu (0.067 hectares) increased to 394.7 kg, contributing over 80% to the growth in grain production [3] Structural Optimization - The agricultural production structure is being actively optimized to meet market demands, with soybean production projected to reach 20.65 million tons in 2024, and oilseed production expected to increase by nearly 5 percentage points in self-sufficiency [3] - The variety of agricultural products is expanding, with sufficient supply of fruits, vegetables, meat, and aquatic products, leading to a more balanced nutritional level for residents [3] Policy Support - A comprehensive policy framework has been established to support farmers, including a three-pronged approach of subsidies, pricing, and insurance to stabilize farmers' income [4] - Significant investments have been made in rural infrastructure, with over 4.64 million kilometers of rural roads and a 94% access rate for tap water [4] Rural Reform - The second round of land contracting has been extended for another 30 years, with pilot programs launched in several provinces to enhance land management and protect farmers' rights [5] Poverty Alleviation and Support - A robust support system is in place to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, with an average of 3 to 5 support measures provided to households at risk of returning to poverty [6] - The central government has allocated 850.5 billion yuan in financial support for rural revitalization, enhancing infrastructure and public services in poverty-stricken areas [6] Economic Impact - The income of farmers has been growing rapidly, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 2.56:1 in 2020 to 2.34:1 in 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of agricultural support policies [7] Future Outlook - The focus remains on promoting rural modernization and addressing challenges in agricultural development, with a commitment to strengthening the agricultural foundation and ensuring food security [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights significant progress in agricultural modernization and rural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the goal of building a strong agricultural nation and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [3][10]. Agricultural Production - In 2024, China's grain production is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons), with a per capita grain availability of 500 kg, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in staple food [4][9]. - The average grain yield reached 394.7 kg per mu (approximately 0.067 hectares) in 2023, an increase of 12.5 kg compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with yield improvements contributing over 80% to the growth in grain production [5][4]. Agricultural Structure and Safety - The agricultural production structure is being optimized to adapt to market demand, with soybean production reaching 20.65 million tons in 2024, and the self-sufficiency rate increasing by 4 percentage points since 2020 [5]. - The quality and safety of agricultural products are being prioritized, with a monitoring compliance rate of 97.5% for agricultural product quality during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [5]. Rural Infrastructure and Support Policies - A comprehensive policy framework to support farmers has been established, including subsidies, price supports, and insurance, aimed at stabilizing farmers' income from grain production [6][8]. - Significant investments have been made in rural infrastructure, with over 4.64 million kilometers of rural roads and a 94% coverage rate for tap water, enhancing public services in rural areas [6][8]. Poverty Alleviation and Economic Development - The government has implemented various support measures to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, with over 600 million monitoring subjects identified for assistance to prevent the risk of returning to poverty [8]. - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," a total of 850.5 billion yuan has been allocated to support rural revitalization, improving infrastructure and public services in poverty-stricken areas [8]. Employment and Income Growth - The income of farmers has seen rapid growth, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 2.56:1 in 2020 to 2.34:1 in 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at supporting agricultural and rural development [9].

Core Insights - The Chinese government is committed to achieving high-quality agricultural and rural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on building a strong agricultural nation and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [1][8] Agricultural Production - Grain production is expected to reach approximately 1.4 trillion jin (around 700 million tons) in 2024, with a per capita grain availability of 500 kg, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in staple food [2][3] - The area for autumn grain cultivation has increased, and the growth conditions are favorable, setting a solid foundation for a bountiful harvest [2] - The average yield of grain per mu (0.067 hectares) increased to 394.7 kg, contributing over 80% to the growth in grain production [3] Structural Optimization - The agricultural production structure is being optimized to meet market demands, with soybean production expected to reach 20.65 million tons in 2024, and oilseed production increasing by nearly 5 percentage points in self-sufficiency [3] - The variety of agricultural products is expanding, with sufficient supply of fruits, vegetables, meat, and aquatic products, enhancing the nutritional balance of residents' diets [3] Policy Support - A comprehensive policy framework has been established to support farmers, including subsidies, price supports, and insurance systems, ensuring stable income for grain producers [4] - Significant investments have been made in rural infrastructure, with over 4.64 million kilometers of rural roads and a 94% access rate for tap water [4] Rural Reform - The second round of land contracting has been extended for another 30 years, with pilot programs launched in several provinces to enhance land management and protect farmers' rights [5] - The government emphasizes voluntary and compensated land transfers, prohibiting forced measures to promote land circulation [5] Poverty Alleviation and Support - A robust support system is in place to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, with an average of 3 to 5 support measures provided to households at risk of returning to poverty [6] - Central government funding for rural revitalization has reached 850.5 billion yuan, improving infrastructure and public services in poverty-stricken areas [6] Overall Agricultural Stability - The agricultural sector is crucial for employment and rural stability, with significant improvements in living conditions and infrastructure for nearly 500 million rural residents [7] - The income of farmers has been growing rapidly, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 2.56:1 in 2020 to 2.34:1 in 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of supportive policies [7] Future Outlook - The focus remains on achieving agricultural modernization and addressing challenges in rural areas, with a commitment to strengthening the agricultural foundation and enhancing quality and efficiency [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the achievements in agricultural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing food security and the diversification of food supply in China [1][3]. Agricultural Production and Food Security - China's grain production reached a new high of 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons) last year, an increase of 74 billion jin (approximately 37 million tons) compared to 2020 [1][3]. - The per capita grain availability in China has reached 500 kg, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in staple food [3]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has implemented a national food security strategy focusing on domestic production, moderate imports, and technological support [3]. Crop and Livestock Production - The production capacity of cotton, oil, and sugar has been continuously improved, with sufficient and diverse supply of fruits, vegetables, meat, eggs, milk, and aquatic products [1][6]. - The total output of livestock products reached 175 million tons by the end of last year, an increase of 27.78 million tons (18.8%) since 2020 [6][7]. - The soybean production reached 20.65 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate increase of 4 percentage points compared to 2020 [4][6]. Agricultural Reform and Modernization - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is deepening rural reforms, including extending land contracts and managing rural housing land [2]. - Over 2 million farmer cooperatives and nearly 4 million family farms have been cultivated, promoting the integration of smallholders with modern agriculture [2]. Food Supply Diversification - The central government has emphasized the establishment of a diversified food supply system, focusing on various food sources including forests, grasslands, and aquatic resources [6][7]. - The area of facility agriculture has reached 40 million mu (approximately 2.67 million hectares), with annual vegetable production exceeding 20 million tons [7]. Consumer Engagement and Market Stability - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has launched a plan to boost agricultural product consumption, emphasizing brand development and marketing strategies [8][9]. - The plan aims to enhance consumer engagement through various channels, including festivals and exhibitions, to stabilize the agricultural product market [9].

期货日报网讯（记者 杨美 见习记者 肖佳煊）9月16日，国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题 新闻发布会，介绍"十四五"时期农业农村发展成就。谈及如何做到稳产保供、端稳端牢中国人饭碗时， 农业农村部部长韩俊在会上回应表示，"十四五"以来，我们认真实施国家粮食安全战略，坚持产量产 能、生产生态、增产增收一起抓，特别是强化藏粮于地、藏粮于技，全方位夯实粮食安全根基。 对于今年粮食生产形势，韩俊表示，夏粮稳产丰收，早稻增产。最近，农业农村部派出18个调研组到全 国各地去现场看，秋粮面积稳中有增，从调研情况看，秋粮长势正常偏好，夺取秋粮丰收有很好的基础 和条件。目前北方有不到20天就进入秋粮大面积收获的季节，要利用最后这个时间窗口，全力以赴把田 间管理工作抓好，把农业防灾减灾工作抓到位，做好秋粮收获，确保颗粒归仓。总之，要奋力夺取全年 粮食丰收，实现全年粮食产量1.4万亿斤左右的目标。 其中在保障收益方面，韩俊谈到，近年来，国家进一步完善粮食生产各项支持政策，比如说过去农业保 险只能保物化成本，一亩地绝收之后就给两三百块钱，后来保完全成本再到收入保险，现在三大粮食作 物完全成本保险和种植收入保险政策实施范围 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant achievements in agricultural and rural development in China, with a focus on ensuring food security, modernizing agriculture, and improving rural living conditions [4][5][6]. Agricultural Production - National grain production is projected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, an increase of 74 billion jin compared to 2020, with per capita grain availability reaching 500 kg [4][5]. - The total output of livestock products reached 175 million tons by the end of last year, an increase of 27.78 million tons or 18.8% from 2020 [26]. Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation - The government has invested 10.8 trillion yuan in agricultural and rural affairs since the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with fixed asset investment in the primary industry reaching 5.47 trillion yuan [2][29]. - Over 6 million individuals at risk of returning to poverty have been identified and assisted, with a stable employment scale of over 30 million for the formerly impoverished population [5][6]. Agricultural Modernization - More than 100 million acres of high-standard farmland have been established, with the contribution rate of agricultural technology progress reaching 63.2% [6][7]. - The mechanization rate for crop farming exceeds 75%, and the coverage rate of high-quality seeds is over 96% [6]. Environmental Sustainability - Agricultural water usage has decreased by an average of 3.6 billion cubic meters annually, with fertilizer and pesticide usage also declining [2][43]. - The recycling rate of agricultural film reached 85%, and the comprehensive utilization rate of straw exceeded 88% [43]. Income and Economic Growth - Rural residents' per capita disposable income reached 23,119 yuan, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 2.56:1 in 2020 to 2.34:1 [7]. - The revenue of large-scale agricultural processing enterprises is projected to reach 1.8 trillion yuan in 2024 [29]. Policy Support and Reform - The government has implemented a comprehensive support policy for agriculture, including subsidies, price supports, and insurance, to stabilize farmers' income [29]. - The second round of land contracts has been extended for another 30 years, ensuring stability in land use rights for farmers [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals [15]. Core Insights - The global demand gap for corn and wheat continues to expand, while soybean supply remains ample [1]. - The USDA report indicates a downward revision in U.S. corn production expectations, but global production is still expected to be high, leading to an increased production gap for the 2025/26 season [2][3]. - For wheat, global production is projected to increase, but the demand gap is also expected to widen, with a notable increase in total consumption [8]. - The soybean market shows a slight increase in global production expectations, but supply remains relatively loose, with domestic demand in the U.S. improving [10][11]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report revised the 2025/26 global corn production down by approximately 2.32 million tons to 1.264 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2]. - The U.S. corn production is expected to decrease by 1.15 million bushels, with total demand projected to reach a record 1.276 billion tons, resulting in a production gap of 12.1 million tons [3][6]. - The global corn ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline to 21.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. Wheat - The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 has been slightly revised down by 40,000 tons to 808 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [8][9]. - Total global wheat consumption is expected to rise by 800,000 tons to 811 million tons, leading to an expanded production gap of 2.07 million tons [8]. - The global wheat ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 32.3%, down from the previous year [8][9]. Soybeans - The USDA report raised the global soybean production forecast by 860,000 tons to 428 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [10][12]. - U.S. soybean production is expected to decrease by 140,000 tons to 11.8 million tons, while domestic demand is projected to increase due to higher biodiesel usage [11][13]. - The global soybean ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 29.7%, down from the previous year [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for international corn and wheat prices, driven by expanding demand gaps and supply dynamics [15]. - The focus on food security is emphasized, with recommendations for companies involved in seed production and agricultural technology, particularly those benefiting from the commercialization of genetically modified corn [15].

Group 1: Sales and Market Position - The company primarily sells compound fertilizers through a network of nearly 6,000 first-level distributors and over 100,000 retail outlets across rural areas in China [2] - The company has established overseas marketing networks in Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, enhancing its market presence [2] - The company aims to improve its market share by optimizing channel structures and enhancing service quality [2] Group 2: Industry Outlook - China's grain production is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin by 2024, supported by the national food security strategy, which will provide long-term demand for compound fertilizers [3] - The compound fertilizer industry is experiencing consolidation, with market share shifting towards leading enterprises due to increased competition and regulatory pressures on smaller firms [3] - The company is confident in the future growth of the compound fertilizer market driven by the modernization of agriculture and the rising demand for high-efficiency fertilizers [2][3] Group 3: Phosphate Utilization and Production - The company has established a complete phosphate utilization chain, producing various grades of phosphoric acid and ammonium phosphate, enhancing resource utilization [4] - The company’s phosphate rock resources total approximately 549 million tons, with planned mining capacity of 6.9 million tons per year [5] - The mining projects are progressing well, with specific timelines for production expected to be announced in future company disclosures [5] Group 4: Ammonia Project Development - The company’s ammonia project has a planned capacity of 2.7 million tons, with significant progress in construction at both the Hubei and Guangxi sites [4] - The project is expected to enhance the company's cost advantages and resource self-sufficiency, thereby strengthening its market position [4] - The Guangxi project will fill a production gap in southern China, supporting the expansion of the company's compound fertilizer market [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the collaboration of agricultural technology and financial support as dual engines driving efficient agricultural production, particularly in the large-scale mechanized harvesting of wheat [1][2] - The mechanization level of wheat harvesting in China is high, with most areas achieving mechanized harvesting, relying on combine harvesters as the main force [1] - Financial products such as "Agricultural Machinery Loans" and "Summer Harvest Quick Loans" are being innovatively introduced by banks to meet the short, frequent, and urgent funding needs of large-scale wheat harvesting [1][2] Group 2 - The efficient operation of large-scale wheat harvesting depends on the collaboration across the entire industry chain, including research, production, circulation, and services [2] - Banks are encouraged to adopt an industry chain financial approach, providing operational loans to agricultural machinery manufacturers and financing solutions for supporting services like machinery repair and fuel supply [2] - A risk protection mechanism for large-scale wheat harvesting is necessary, with banks collaborating with insurance companies to develop products that combine agricultural machinery operation insurance with credit [2] Group 3 - The transition from traditional farming to smart farming is being facilitated by innovative financial services, which aim to lower the barriers to agricultural machinery usage and promote mechanization [2][3] - Financial institutions are expected to deepen scenario-based services and strengthen ecological layouts to ensure that every loan contributes to a vibrant modern agricultural landscape [3]