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畜牧ETF(159867)近1周涨幅居同类第一,机构:禽畜产品量价齐升逻辑有望增强
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 03:04
Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) has shown a slight increase of 0.18% as of May 19, 2025, with notable gains in stocks such as Xiangjia Co., Ltd. (002982) up by 6.62% and Yike Foods (301116) up by 1.73% [1] - The recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Brazil has led to a suspension of poultry imports from Brazil by Mexico, impacting the poultry market [1] - A report from Guojin Securities indicates that the price of white feather chickens has rebounded due to previous price drops and improved consumer demand, while the supply of breeding chickens has significantly decreased year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy adjustments are expected to gradually boost consumer demand, leading to an increase in poultry product consumption and a higher proportion of high-end products [2] - The dairy industry is anticipated to stabilize and recover in the second half of 2025, with ongoing low prices for raw milk and an acceleration in industry capacity reduction [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 69.38% of the index, with companies like Haida Group (002311) and Muyuan Foods (002714) being the most significant contributors [3]
美国农业部(USDA)月度供需报告数据分析专题:25/26产季数据首次发布,2026年美国牛肉市场供给加速调减
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-18 15:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Insights - The USDA's May supply and demand report indicates a tightening of global supply for corn, soybeans, and wheat, while beef prices in the U.S. are expected to rise due to reduced supply [5][6] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the agricultural sector, particularly in corn and soybean markets, as prices are expected to stabilize and recover from historical lows [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA forecasts a global corn production increase of 43.7 million tons (approximately +3.45%) to 1.26498 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage rising by 24.4 million tons (approximately +1.91%) [16][17] - China's corn production is expected to increase by 80,000 tons (approximately +0.03%) to 295 million tons, with total usage up by 5 million tons (approximately +1.56%) [17] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with strong support expected for price recovery [19] Soybeans - Global soybean production is projected to increase by 5.95 million tons (approximately +1.39%) to 426.82 million tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 13.76 million tons (approximately +3.24%) [31][32] - The report anticipates that soybean prices will remain under pressure in the first half of 2025 due to high supply levels, but long-term trends are expected to improve [34][35] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to rise by 8.81 million tons (approximately +1.10%) to 80.852 million tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage increasing by 4.38 million tons (approximately +0.55%) [43][44] - The overall supply of wheat remains ample, and prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels [43] Beef - The USDA predicts a significant reduction in U.S. beef supply for 2026, with prices expected to rise by 15.2% in Q2 2025 and 14.1% in Q3 2025 [5][7] - The domestic beef market is expected to see a price increase despite seasonal trends, indicating a potential upward cycle for beef prices [5][7] Pork - U.S. pork production is expected to increase by 1.33% in 2026, with consumption growth slightly outpacing supply [7][8] - Domestic pork prices are projected to decline, but low-cost producers are expected to maintain profitability [7] Poultry - U.S. poultry supply is expected to recover in 2026, with domestic demand in China anticipated to improve [7][8] - The report notes that high pathogenic avian influenza impacts are diminishing, which may support recovery in poultry production [7] Eggs - U.S. egg production is projected to increase by 6% in 2026, with domestic supply expected to remain ample throughout the year [8][9] - The report indicates that egg prices may face downward pressure due to high supply levels [8][9]
4月猪价淡季不淡,5月猪价中枢或进一步抬升
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-16 07:59
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.95% [6][18] - The supply gap in May is expected to lead to a further increase in the price center of live pigs, driven by limited increases in supply and improving demand [6][18] - The average weight of pigs sold is expected to gradually decline, but the narrowing price difference between different grades of pigs will have limited pressure on prices [7][22] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - April saw a non-seasonal increase in pig prices, with expectations for further price increases in May due to supply constraints and improving demand [6][18] - The average price of live pigs in April was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% [6][18] - The slaughter volume in April was 4.213 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 4.54% but a year-on-year increase of 6.76% [6][18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs is expected to be limited in May due to previous culling and disease impacts, while demand for pork is showing marginal improvement [6][18] - The planned output for May is expected to increase by 1.98% compared to actual output in April [6][18] Profitability and Market Performance - The average profit for self-bred pigs in April was 69.44 yuan/head, a month-on-month increase of 63.63% [8][26] - The number of breeding sows in April increased by 0.96% month-on-month [8][26] - The price of 15kg piglets reached 630 yuan/head, indicating a high price level during the replenishment season [8][26] Company Performance - In April, 12 listed pig farming companies collectively sold 16.2368 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 37.22% [9][28] - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant year-on-year increases in sales volume [9][28] - The average selling prices varied among companies, with some experiencing increases while others saw declines [9][35]
大北农(002385) - 北京市天元律师事务所关于北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司2024年年度股东大会的法律意见
2025-05-15 11:31
北京市天元律师事务所 关于北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会的法律意见 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")2024 年年度股东大 会(以下简称"本次股东大会")采取现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式,现场 会议于 2025 年 5 月 15 日 14:30 在北京市海淀区澄湾街 19 号院大北农凤凰国际 创新园行政楼 104 会议室召开。北京市天元律师事务所(以下简称"本所")接 受公司聘任,指派本所律师参加本次股东大会现场会议,并根据《中华人民共和 国公司法》、《中华人民共和国证券法》(以下简称"《证券法》")、《上市 公司股东会规则》(以下简称"《股东会规则》")以及《北京大北农科技集团 股份有限公司章程》(以下简称"《公司章程》")等有关规定,就本次股东大 会的召集、召开程序、出席现场会议人员的资格、召集人资格、会议表决程序及 表决结果等事项出具本法律意见。 为出具本法律意见,本所律师审查了《北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司第 六届董事会第二十九次会议决议公告》《北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司第六 届监事会第十六次会议决议公告》《北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司关于召开 2 ...
大北农(002385) - 2024年年度股东大会决议公告
2025-05-15 11:31
证券代码:002385 证券简称:大北农 公告编号:2025-050 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示: 1.本次股东大会未出现否决提案的情形; 2.本次股东大会不涉及变更以往股东大会已通过的决议。 (1)现场会议召开时间:2025 年 5 月 15 日(星期四)下午 14:30 开始 (2)网络投票起止时间: ①通过深圳证券交易所(以下简称"深交所")交易系统进行网络投票的具 体时间为:2025 年 5 月 15 日 9:15—9:25,9:30—11:30 和 13:00—15:00; ②通过互联网投票系统(http://wltp.cninfo.com.cn)投票的具体时间为:2025 年 5 月 15 日上午 09:15 至下午 15:00 期间的任意时间。 2.现场会议召开地点:北京市海淀区澄湾街 19 号院大北农凤凰国际创新园 行政楼 104 会议室 3.会议召开方式:采取现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式 4.会议召集人:公司第六届董事会 5.会议主持人:公司董事 ...
5月USDA供需报告分析:新作库存低于预期,利多大豆和玉米
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-15 07:30
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The USDA supply and demand report indicates that new crop inventories for soybeans and corn are lower than expected, which is favorable for prices [4][6] - Global corn production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 1.221 billion tons, with significant increases in production from the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [1][12] - The soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 410 million tons, with Brazil expected to reach a record 175 million tons [2][3][18] - The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 is 667 million tons, reflecting a 1.0% year-on-year increase, with the EU showing significant growth [4][28] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report estimates a global corn production of 1.221 billion tons for 2024/25, with U.S. production increasing by 24.22 million tons due to expanded planting [1][12] - The projected global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are 95.68 million tons, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, with a low stocks-to-use ratio of 10% [1][12] Soybeans - The global soybean production for 2024/25 is estimated at 421 million tons, with U.S. ending stocks significantly reduced to 295 million bushels [2][3][18] - The forecast for global soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 is 80.47 million tons, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 27.6% [3][19] Wheat - The global wheat production for 2025/26 is projected at 667 million tons, with the EU's production expected to increase by 11.4% to 136 million tons [4][28] - The global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 are estimated at 14.2 million tons, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 21.6% [5][28] Investment Recommendations - In light of increasing global weather extremes and geopolitical tensions affecting grain prices, the report emphasizes the importance of seed source control for national food security [6][36] - Recommended companies include leading seed firms with transgenic advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyuan High-Tech, along with suggestions to monitor Kangnong Seed Industry, Denghai Seed Industry, and Fengle Seed Industry [6][36]
南非口蹄疫蔓延冲击畜牧市场,养殖 ETF(516760) 周涨领先,三条主线成破局关键
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 03:26
Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming index in China has shown a slight decline, with specific stocks experiencing mixed performance, while external factors such as foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa are impacting the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the China Livestock Farming Index (930707) decreased by 0.38%, with stocks like Luyouli (300381) and Jinxinnong (002548) showing gains of 1.07% and 1.05% respectively, while Ruipubio (300119) led the decline with a drop of 2.66% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) fell by 0.80%, with a latest price of 0.62 yuan, but it ranked first in weekly performance among comparable funds as of May 12, 2025 [1]. - The Livestock ETF had a turnover rate of 1.07% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 1.4475 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 4.6547 million yuan over the past year [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The South African Department of Agriculture confirmed the spread of foot-and-mouth disease to provinces like KwaZulu-Natal, prompting China's Ministry of Agriculture to urge livestock farmers to restrict animal transport and implement a 28-day quarantine for new animals [1]. - Everbright Securities identified three main investment themes: (1) Planting: Rising prices of staple crops like corn and wheat are expected to benefit major planting companies; (2) Seeds: Improved demand in the seed industry due to favorable planting conditions; (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Improved planting profits are likely to reduce agricultural input cost pressures, expanding the agricultural chemicals market [1]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Farming Index, which includes companies involved in animal feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [3]. - As of May 12, 2025, the Livestock Farming Index's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) was 12.26, indicating it is at a historical low, being below 99.43% of the time over the past year [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the Livestock Farming Index accounted for 69.38% of the index, with Hai Da Group (002311) having the highest weight at 11.24% [3][5].
中证现代农业主题指数下跌0.4%,前十大权重包含牧原股份等
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-05-12 13:43
金融界5月12日消息,上证指数高开高走,中证现代农业主题指数 (CS现代农,930662)下跌0.4%,报 997.35点,成交额75.19亿元。 从中证现代农业主题指数持仓的市场板块来看,深圳证券交易所占比74.03%、上海证券交易所占比 25.97%。 从中证现代农业主题指数持仓样本的行业来看,畜牧产品占比39.61%、饲料占比37.86%、农产品占比 8.40%、种业占比7.29%、动物保健与育种占比5.99%、农业机械占比0.84%。 资料显示,指数样本每半年调整一次,样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整,调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前,权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时,将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理,参照计算与维护细则处理。 跟踪CS现代农的公募基金包括:易方达中证现代农业主题ETF。 数据统计显示,中证现代农业主题指数近一个月下跌5.59%,近三个月上涨5.31%,年至今上涨1.82%。 据了解,中证现代农业主题指数选取30只业务涉及农产品 ...
粮食概念下跌0.60%,主力资金净流出33股
今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 截至5月12日收盘,粮食概念下跌0.60%,位居概念板块跌幅榜前列,板块内,克明食品、神农种业、 荃银高科等跌幅居前,股价上涨的有11只,涨幅居前的有*ST辉丰、*ST万方、ST亚联等,分别上涨 2.80%、2.73%、2.45%。 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中船系 | 6.55 | 重组蛋白 | -0.94 | | 成飞概念 | 5.77 | 代糖概念 | -0.82 | | 军工信息化 | 4.28 | 转基因 | -0.77 | | 同花顺果指数 | 4.17 | 创新药 | -0.60 | | 国产航母 | 3.73 | 粮食概念 | -0.60 | | 军民融合 | 3.69 | 玉米 | -0.59 | | 航空发动机 | 3.42 | 大豆 | -0.45 | | 人形机器人 | 3.20 | 农业种植 | -0.31 | | 减速器 | 3.20 | 生物质能发电 | -0.28 | | 军工 | 3.15 | 减肥药 | -0.24 | 资金面上看,今日粮食概念板块获主 ...
转基因概念下跌0.77%,9股主力资金净流出超千万元
截至5月12日收盘,转基因概念下跌0.77%,位居概念板块跌幅榜前列,板块内,神农种业、荃银高 科、敦煌种业等跌幅居前,股价上涨的有4只,涨幅居前的有芭田股份、新安股份、科前生物等,分别 上涨3.20%、1.95%、1.83%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中船系 | 6.55 | 重组蛋白 | -0.94 | | 成飞概念 | 5.77 | 代糖概念 | -0.82 | | 军工信息化 | 4.28 | 转基因 | -0.77 | | 同花顺果指数 | 4.17 | 创新药 | -0.60 | | 国产航母 | 3.73 | 粮食概念 | -0.60 | | 军民融合 | 3.69 | 玉米 | -0.59 | | 航空发动机 | 3.42 | 大豆 | -0.45 | | 人形机器人 | 3.20 | 农业种植 | -0.31 | | 减速器 | 3.20 | 生物质能发电 | -0.28 | | 军工 | 3.15 | 减肥药 | -0.24 | 资金面上看,今日转基因概念板块获主力 ...