Macroeconomic Insights - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the United States starting April 10, 2025, which is expected to significantly reduce agricultural imports from the U.S. [3] - In 2024, China imported agricultural products worth $24.9 billion from the U.S., with major imports including soybeans (22.1 million tons), sorghum (5.7 million tons), corn (2.1 million tons), and wheat (1.9 million tons) [3]. Agricultural Sector - The increase in tariffs is likely to enhance domestic grain prices and benefit the planting industry chain, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in grain production [3]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in agriculture, particularly in genetically modified and gene-edited crops, which are expected to accelerate, benefiting seed companies with leading technology reserves [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are actively expanding their domestic brands in the pet food sector, such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which primarily generate revenue from domestic sales [4]. Livestock Industry - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, driven by favorable pig prices and reduced costs [5]. - The analysis of March's supply and demand dynamics in the pig farming industry shows a balanced market, but a potential downward trend in prices is anticipated if there is no support from state reserves [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Lihua Shares; for the post-cycle sector, recommended stocks are KQ Bio, Haida Group; in the pig farming sector, recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Bio, and Shennong Group [7]. - In the seed industry, recommended stocks include Fengle Seed Industry, Quanyin High-Tech, Longping High-Tech, and Dabeinong [7]. - In the pet sector, recommended stocks are Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Bio [7]. Chemical Industry - The report suggests that the imposition of a 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic substitution process for chemical products, particularly in high-end markets [17]. - Beneficiary products include lubricant additives, nucleating agents, adsorption separation resins, and nano-silica, with specific companies recommended for investment [19]. Rare Earth Industry - The report maintains an "overweight" rating on the rare earth sector, anticipating that the recent tariffs will enhance China's strategic advantages in rare earth production and lead to price increases due to supply-demand mismatches [22]. - The export control measures on heavy rare earths are expected to stimulate overseas stockpiling, further driving up prices [23]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is projected to see stable growth in 2025, with a focus on improving asset-liability matching strategies [25]. - The report recommends increasing holdings in companies like China Pacific Insurance and New China Life Insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved investment returns and stable business strategies [40].

证券代码：002458 证券简称：益生股份 公告编号：2025-031 山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 （1）自可能对本公司证券及其衍生品种交易价格产生重大影响 的重大事项发生之日或者在决策过程中，至依法披露之日内； （2）中国证监会和深圳证券交易所规定的其他情形。 （1）委托价格不得为公司股票当日交易涨幅限制的价格； 因公司实施 2024 年前三季度权益分派，本次回购股份的价格上 限由不超过人民币 12.00 元/股（含）调整为不超过人民币 11.90 元 /股（含） ，具体内容详见 2025 年 01 月 04 日公司刊登于《中国证券 报 》《 上 海 证 券 报 》《 证 券 时 报 》《 证 券 日 报 》 和 巨 潮 资 讯 网 （www.cninfo.com.cn）的《关于 2024 年前三季度权益分派实施后调 整回购股份价格上限的公告》（公告编号：2025-003）。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》 《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律 监管指引第 9 号——回购股份》等有关规定，在回购股份期间，公司 应当在每个月 ...

关于回购股份进展情况的公告 证券代码：002458 证券简称：益生股份 公告编号：2025-031 山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司 关于回购股份进展情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 11 月 01 日召开第六届董事会第二十三次会议，审议通过了《关于以 集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案的议案》，同意公司使用银行专 项贷款资金及自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公司部分已发行的 人民币普通股（A 股），本次回购股份将用于实施员工持股计划，回购 股份的资金总额不低于人民币 10,000 万元（含），不超过人民币 20,000 万元（含），回购股份的价格不超过人民币 12.00 元/股（含）， 具体回购股份的数量以回购期限届满或回购完毕时实际回购的股份 数量为准，实施期限为董事会审议通过回购股份方案之日起 12 个月 内。具体内容详见 2024 年 11 月 05 日公司刊登于《中国证券报》《上 海证券报》《证券时报》《证券日报》和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn） 的《关于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a 6-month target price of 12.07 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in chicken seedling sales in 2024, but Q4 saw a significant recovery in prices, contributing positively to profits. The total revenue for 2024 was 3.136 billion CNY, down 2.76% year-on-year, while net profit was 504 million CNY, down 6.84% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 982 million CNY, up 73.41% year-on-year, and net profit was 203 million CNY, up 242.33% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expected to see an increase in white feather chicken sales in 2025, with a projected growth in revenue from the white feather chicken business. The company sold 586 million white feather chicken seedlings in 2024, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year, generating sales revenue of 2.385 billion CNY, also down 9.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company faces challenges due to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in major breeding regions, which have led to a significant reduction in the supply of grandparent stock. In early 2025, the company imported 36,000 sets of grandparent chickens from France to alleviate supply issues [3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.010 billion CNY, 4.340 billion CNY, and 4.520 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.9%, 8.2%, and 4.1% [4]. - Net profit is expected to reach 668 million CNY, 763 million CNY, and 772 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 32.5%, 14.2%, and 1.2% respectively [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.60 CNY, 0.69 CNY, and 0.70 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is reported at 3.136 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.76% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 504 million yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in chick sales and a slight drop in sales prices [1][6] - The chicken business experienced a 9.27% decrease in chick sales volume to 586 million chicks, leading to a 9.50% decline in overall revenue for the chicken segment to 2.697 billion yuan, despite a stable average sales price [1][6] - The pig business saw a significant increase in sales volume, with the number of breeding pigs sold rising by 806% to approximately 30,000 heads, resulting in a 320% increase in revenue to 224 million yuan [2][7] - The company anticipates an improvement in white chicken consumption in 2025, supported by domestic demand stimulation policies and macroeconomic recovery [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 982 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.26% and a year-on-year increase of 73.41, with a net profit of 203 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 72.88% and a year-on-year increase of 242.33% [1][6] - The gross margin for the chicken business improved by 0.28 percentage points to 33.54%, despite an 8.73% decline in gross profit to 905 million yuan [1][6] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is reported at 29.41%, down 2.20 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is at 16.01%, down 0.97 percentage points [13] Future Projections - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 720 million yuan from the previous estimate of 900 million yuan, while the 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts remain at 810 million yuan and 870 million yuan, respectively [3][17] - The expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.7, 0.7, and 0.8 yuan, respectively [3][17] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic white feather broiler breeding industry, with long-term potential to benefit from its genetic advantages and the recovery of the white feather broiler market [3][17]

Group 1: Aluminum Industry - The aluminum industry is experiencing a good destocking performance, but prices are under pressure due to tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties [4][10]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased, with average costs around 16,960 RMB/ton, down 103 RMB/ton week-on-week [5]. - Downstream aluminum processing enterprises are seeing a recovery in orders and operating rates, supported by demand from the photovoltaic sector and automotive aluminum [6]. Group 2: Power Industry - China Power reported a revenue of 54.21 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, with a net profit of 3.86 billion RMB, up 25.2% [11][12]. - The company’s coal-fired power segment showed improved performance, while hydropower turned profitable due to favorable water conditions [13]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 60% for the year [12]. Group 3: Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline, with the beverage segment down 3.65% over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [15]. - The liquor market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with prices for premium brands like Moutai decreasing, indicating weaker demand [16]. - The overall performance of liquor companies varies, with some regional brands showing resilience amid macroeconomic pressures [17]. Group 4: Logistics Industry - SF Express reported a revenue of 15.746 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a net profit of 132 million RMB, up 161.8% [21][22]. - The company’s last-mile delivery segment saw significant growth, particularly in county-level markets, with a 121% increase in revenue [24]. - The logistics sector is benefiting from network scale effects, leading to improved profit margins and cost reductions [25]. Group 5: Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability [29]. - Phosphate rock supply remains tight, with companies like Baitian Co. expanding production capacity to meet growing demand [28]. - The industry is witnessing price increases for key products like urea and hexafluoropropylene, indicating a positive market sentiment [35].

Group 1 - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 504 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, with total revenue of 3.136 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [1] - In 2024, the company sold 585.55 million white feather broiler chicks, a decline of 9.3% year-on-year, while the sales price for parent stock chicks was approximately 40 yuan per set [1] - The company introduced 230,000 Hubbard grandparent stock chicks in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 44%, laying a solid foundation for growth in parent stock and commercial chick sales in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The company sold 82.99 million 909 small white feather broiler chicks in 2024, an increase of 8% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 1.3 yuan per chick [2] - In the first two months of 2025, the company sold 16.29 million 909 small white feather broiler chicks, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [2] Group 3 - The company has over 20 years of experience in breeding original breeding pigs, with significant advantages in disease prevention, breeding research, production management, and modern farming techniques [3] - From 2021 to 2024, the company's breeding pig sales increased from 200 heads to 3,000 heads, with a compound annual growth rate of 145.5% [3] - The company plans to sell 150,000 breeding pigs in 2025, with a potential full production sales volume of 200,000 heads [3] Group 4 - The company is the largest grandparent meat breed chicken farming enterprise in China and is expected to benefit from rising chick prices due to ongoing high pathogenic avian influenza in the U.S. and New Zealand [4] - The company is projected to sell 14 million parent stock chicks and 665 million commercial chicks from 2025 to 2027, with significant revenue growth anticipated [5] - The expected main business revenue for 2025 is 4.744 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.3% [5]

益生股份（002458.SZ） 证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 29 年 月 日 商品代贡献主要业绩，种猪销售大幅增长 公司公告 2024 年年度报告。2024 年，公司实现收入 31.36 亿元，同比 减少 2.76%；归母净利润 5.04 亿元，同比减少 6.84%。2024 年第四季 度，公司实现收入 9.82 亿元，同比增长 73.41%；归母净利润 2.03 亿元， 同比增长 242.33%。 2024Q4 商品代涨价明显，贡献主要利润。2024 年，我们估算公司销售 商品代鸡苗约 5.7 亿羽，同比减少 9%，销售均价 3.3 元/羽；父母代鸡苗 约 1200 万套，同比减少 20%，销售均价近 39 元/套。四季度以来，商品 代鸡苗价格上涨明显，市场补栏需求上升，带动公司盈利能力提升，我们 假设公司父母代成本 17 元/套、商品代成本 2.7 元/套，则全年父母代利润 约为 2.5 亿元，同比商品代利润约为 3.5 亿元。春节后，肉鸡苗价格先跌 后涨，3 月第四周主产区平均价 2.98 元/羽，看好白鸡消费与补栏需求恢 复对公司盈利的正向贡献。 种猪销售 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.136 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.76% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 504 million yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year. However, in Q4 2024, revenue reached 982 million yuan, an increase of 73.41% year-on-year, with net profit of 203 million yuan, up 242.33% year-on-year [1][2] - The price of commodity chicken seedlings has increased significantly since Q4 2024, contributing to improved profitability. The estimated profit from parent stock is approximately 250 million yuan, while the profit from commodity stock is around 350 million yuan [1] - The company expects a recovery in demand for white chicken consumption and restocking to positively impact profitability [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company sold approximately 570 million commodity chicken seedlings, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 3.3 yuan per chick. The sale of parent stock was about 12 million sets, down 20% year-on-year, with an average price of nearly 39 yuan per set [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 550 million yuan, 586 million yuan, and 614 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 6.3%, and 4.9% [2][3] - The financial indicators show a projected revenue increase to 3.504 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 11.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 551 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 9.3% year-on-year [3][8] Stock Information - The company's stock closed at 9.67 yuan on March 28, 2025, with a total market capitalization of approximately 10.699 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yisheng Co., Ltd. (stock code: 002458.SZ) [1] Core Views - Yisheng Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in chicken and pig production capacity by 2025, despite facing challenges in 2024 due to low chicken prices [4] - The company reported a revenue of 3.136 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.76% year-on-year, with a net profit of 504 million yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year [4] - The company is projected to benefit from rising chick prices in Q4 2024, leading to a notable increase in revenue and profitability [4] - The company maintains a leading position in the poultry industry, with a focus on high-generation livestock breeding as its core competitive advantage [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue from chicken business was 2.697 billion yuan, accounting for 86% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 33.54% [4] - The company’s pig business revenue reached 224 million yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 320.39% year-on-year, contributing to 7.13% of total revenue [4] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 655 million yuan, 756 million yuan, and 880 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.79 yuan [5] Production Capacity and Market Position - The company is expected to enhance its breeding capacity for both chickens and pigs in 2025, with chicken breeding capacity projected to increase year-on-year [4] - The company has maintained its supply advantage in the breeding sector, with a historical high in parent stock and commodity chicken inventory expected in 2025 [4] - The company has successfully resumed imports of breeding stock from France, which had been disrupted due to avian influenza outbreaks [4] Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts for 2024-2027 indicate a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins, with a projected revenue growth rate of 13.87% in 2025 [5] - The company’s operating profit is expected to increase significantly, with a projected operating profit of 655 million yuan in 2025 [6] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 7.800 billion yuan by 2027, with a debt-to-asset ratio decreasing to 17.48% [7]